Winston's Investment Ideas 02 (Apr 10 - Jul 12)

[kennynah]

one way to solve the dilemma, is to sell some and hold some

The S&P 500 is now at 1289.

And it has been above the resistance of 1285 for 4 days now.

Is this not the secondary confirmation that I need ?

But why do I feel that I should sell into the strength, rather than to hold ?

Maybe it's because I have forgotten what a bull market is like and the last time the S&P 500 was at 1285, was about 2.5 months ago.

[winston]

Agree. When in doubt, I prefer not to have a big position.

However, if it continues it way upwards, I would be too underweight Equities.

Still looking for a way to have the cake and eat it as well ..

[kennynah]

Agree. When in doubt, I prefer not to have a big position.

However, if it continues it way upwards, I would be too underweight Equities.

Still looking for a way to have the cake and eat it as well ..

only if your stock positions offer options... you could easily solve your problem by selling Calls on them...
if stock prices rise,you win, if they drop, you win some too..

[winston]

TOL as of January 22, 2012:-


Happy Chinese New Year !



And may you all be always Happy, Healthy, Wealthy and Lucky in this Year of the Dragon !


So far, 2012 has been very good to the bulls.

We have had a good "January Effect" and now, quite a good "Chinese New Year" rally too.

The question now is, "How long can the bulls "milk" things ?".



The week in review:-

1. Oil - Weaker. US$98 from US$99 last week from US$102 the previous week. Moderate winter ? Iranian glut ?

2. Gold - Stronger. US$1664 from US$1632 last week from US$1621 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested

3. Silver - Stronger. US$32.13 from US$29.72 last week from US$28.72 the previous week. Range High: $48.58; Range Low: US$27.19; Resistance at US$38 ?

4. Orange Juice - Surged to a record on mounting concern, that U.S. supplies may be reduced by citrus-greening disease in Texas and a slowdown in imports, as the government tests for a banned fungicide.

Last week, Cattle surged to a record. This week, it's the turn of Orange Juice. Inflation or Deflation ?

5. Shanghai Equities - Stronger. 2319 from 2245 last week from 2163 the previous week. Support at 2150 ? Resistance at 2400 ? Markets seems to have already priced in a RRR reduction or interest rate cut after CNY.

6. HK Equities- Stronger. 20110 from 19204 last week from 18593 the previous week. Resistance at 20600 ? Support at 18600 ? Sold Lianhua

7. Spore Equities- Stronger. 2849 from 2792 last week from 2716 the previous week. Sold Noble

8. US Equities- Stronger. 1315 from 1289 last week from 1278 the previous week. Support at 1205 ? Resistance at 1345 ?

9. Japan Equities - Stronger. 8766 from 8500 last week from 8390 the previous week. Support at 8300 ? Resistance at 8720 taken out. Next Stop 9000 ?

10. JPY - Flat. 77.03 from 76.96 last week from 76.97 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 79.50.

11. Emerging Markets - Inflows; http://www.epfr.com

12. MYR to SGD - Weaker. 2.4444 from 2.42424 last week from 2.4307 the previous week. Time to buy some MYR ? Need to be careful as the GE is coming up.

13. AUD - Stronger. 1.0495 from 1.0322 last week from 1.0228 the previous week. Vested

14. EUR - Stronger. 1.2935 from 1.2680 last week from 1.2724 the previous week.

15. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Lower; 6.25% from 6.641% last week from 7.13% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

16. USD - Weaker. 80.13 from 81.45 last week from 81.25 the previous week. Vested thru HKD.

17. Properties - Seven years of lean ?

18. Liquidity - Stronger. HKD 7.7610 from 7.7672 last week from 7.7652 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.7598 - 7.7972.

Average Daily Turnover on HKEX stronger at HK$63b from HK$53b last week from HK$39b the previous week.

19. Sentiment - Stronger. And when will the shorts have to cover ?

20. Risk Management- Risk-On is back in fashion. So is Complacency.

21. Economies of the Developed Markets - The green shoots have not really grown since Helicopter Ben first saw them under a microscope

22. Hedge Funds - Investors may add about $80 billion of new capital to hedge funds globally this year, the most since 2007, Barclays Plc (BARC) said in a report.

23. Deleveraging - Loans from European banks to clients in Hong Kong fell 6 percent in December from a month earlier, but it is still too early to say whether euro zone lenders are pulling back from Asia, the HK Monetary Authority said on Wednesday

24. Interest Rates- Smooth ride downwards, for the time being

25. Headwinds - European Contagion, Weak DMs Economies, Elevated Commodity Prices, Slower EM growth, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices in HK & China, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs

26. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Fair Equities Valuation, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing

27. Market Direction - Stronger

The S&P 500 is now at 1315.

The next resistance is supposedly at 1353, reached in July 2011.

How long can the bulls continue to milk things ?

And I should remind myself that markets tend to overshoot, both on the downside and upside.



The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


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[winston]

TOL as of January 29, 2012:-


Climbing the Wall of Worry




The market has been grinding higher for about 5 weeks now.

We have had the "Santa Claus Rally", "Year End Window Dressing", "January Effect" and now, "Chinese New Year Rally".

Can the market continue to grind higher ?



The week in review:-

1. Oil - Stronger. US$100 from US$98 last week from US$99 the previous week. The Iranian situation is starting to worry a lot of people.

2. Gold - Stronger. US$1732 from US$1664 last week from US$1632 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested

3. Silver - Stronger. US$33.86 from US$32.13 last week from US$29.72 the previous week. Range High: $48.58; Range Low: US$27.19; Resistance at US$38 ?

4. Cattle - Record. U.S. cattle inventories, fell to the lowest in 60 years, after a drought in the South scorched pastures, prompting ranchers to shrink herds.

5. Shanghai Equities - Closed for a week. 2319 last week from 2163 the previous week. Support at 2150 ? Resistance at 2400 ? They will likely reduce the RRR on any weakness in the market.

6. HK Equities- Stronger. 20502 from 20110 last week from 19204 the previous week. Resistance at 20600 then 22600 ? Support at 19000 ? No trade

7. Spore Equities- Stronger. 2916 from 2849 last week from 2792 the previous week. No trade

8. US Equities- Flat. 1316 from 1315 last week from 1289 the previous week. Support at 1205 ? Resistance at 1345 ?

9. Japan Equities - Stronger. 8841 from 8766 last week from 8500 the previous week. Support at 8300 ? Resistance at 9000 ?

10. JPY - Stronger. 76.68 from 77.03 last week from 76.96 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 79.50.

11. Emerging Markets - Inflows; http://www.epfr.com

12. MYR to SGD - Stronger. 2.4325 from 2.4444 last week from 2.42424 the previous week. Time to buy some MYR ?

13. AUD - Stronger. 1.0659 from 1.0495 last week from 1.0322 the previous week. Vested

14. EUR - Stronger. 1.3220 from 1.2935 last week from 1.2680 the previous week.

15. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Lower; 5.90% from 6.25% last week from 6.641% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

16. USD - Weaker. 78.79 from 80.13 last week from 81.45 the previous week. Vested thru HKD.

17. Properties - What would be the catalyst that will trigger a crash in Singapore ?

18. Liquidity - Stronger. HKD 7.7561 from 7.7610 last week from 7.7672 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.7574 - 7.7972.

Average Daily Turnover on HKEX at HK$60b from HK$50b last week from HK$54b the previous week.

19. Sentiment - Stronger.

20. Risk Management- How fast can you run when the fire starts ?

21. Economies of the Developed Markets- Has anything changed from 3 years ago ?

22. Hedge Funds- No major redemptions

23. Deleveraging- Everyone seems to think that money printing is a stronger force than delevergaing

24. Interest Rates- The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Cut the Cash Reserve Ratio for Banks by 50 Basis Points

25. Headwinds - European Contagion, Weak Economies of the DMs, Elevated Commodity Prices, Slower EM growth, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices in HK & China, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran

26. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Fair Equities Valuation, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing

27. Market Direction - US - Flat; Asia - Higher

Markets are heading higher, supposedly on the various QE programs, throughout the world.

And maybe they can continue to grind higher, as long as there's no surprises from Europe or in the Strait of Hormuz.

But when did we ever not get a surprise, whenever the markets are climbing a "Wall of Worry" ?



The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

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Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

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[winston]

TOL as of February 05, 2012:-


How high can you climb ?




The market has been grinding higher for about 6 weeks now.

On the S&P 500, we are supposedly hitting resistance.

What other catalyst is out there, to drive the market higher ?

The bears did not know what hit them.

And the bulls are afraid to get off the train.



The week in review:-

1. Oil - Weaker. US$98 from US$100 last week from US$98 the previous week. If Panetta is only expecting Israel to take out Iran in April, why worry now ?

2. Gold - Weaker. US$1727 from US$1732 last week from US$1664 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested

3. Silver - Weaker. US$33.62 from US$33.86 last week from US$32.13 the previous week. Range High: $48.58; Range Low: US$27.19; Resistance at US$38 ?

4. Shipping - Norden, Europe’s biggest publicly trading commodity shipping company, hired a Supramax vessel at no cost other than fuel charges, its first such transaction in a quarter century

5. Shanghai Equities - Stronger. 2330 from 2319 last week from 2163 the previous week. Support at 2150 ? Resistance at 2400 ?

6. HK Equities- Stronger. 20757 from 20502 last week from 20110 the previous week. Resistance at 20600 then 22600 ? Support at 19000 ? No trade

7. Spore Equities- Flat. 2918 from 2916 last week from 2849 the previous week. No trade

8. US Equities- Stronger. 1344 from 1316 last week from 1315 the previous week. Support at 1205 ? At Resistance of 1345. Will there be a break-out ?

9. Japan Equities - Weaker. 8832 from 8841 last week from 8766 the previous week. Support at 8300 ? Resistance at 9000 ?

10. JPY - Flat. 76.61 from 76.68 last year from 77.03 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 79.50.

11. Emerging Markets - Inflows; http://www.epfr.com

12. MYR to SGD - Stronger. 2.4246 from 2.4325 last year from 2.4444 the previous week. Time to buy some MYR ?

13. AUD - Stronger. 1.0761 from 1.0659 last week from 1.0495 the previous week. Vested

14. EUR - Weaker. 1.316 from 1.3220 last week from 1.2935 the previous week.

15. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Lower; 5.70% from 5.90% last week from 6.25% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

16. USD - Stronger. 78.97 from 78.79 last week from 80.13 the previous week. Vested thru HKD.

17. Properties - The questions to ask are "how long ?" and "how low ?".

18. Liquidity - Stronger. HKD 7.7529 from 7.7561 last week from 7.7610 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.7574 - 7.7972.

Average Daily Turnover on HKEX at HK$68b from HK$60b last week from HK$50b the previous week.

19. Sentiment - Stronger. What has changed from 2 months ago ?

20. Risk Management- Cash is trash now ?

21. Economies of the Developed Markets- Were there really green shoots in the first place ? Maybe the microscope was dirty.

22. Hedge Funds- No major redemptions

23. Deleveraging- Is money printing really a stronger force than delevergaing

24. Interest Rates- CIC has agreed to a reduction in dividends for the Chinese banks, removing some pressure for a RRR reduction and interest rate reduction

25. Headwinds - European Contagion, Weak Economies of the DMs, Elevated Commodity Prices, Slower EM growth, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices in HK & China, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran

26. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Fair Equities Valuation, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing

27. Market Direction - Higher

Were you smart enough to predict this rally of 6 weeks ?

If not, why would be able to predict it's fall ?

Anyway, friends and relatives who have been out of the market, are starting to contact me. It's normally a good contrarian indicator

However, warning signs does not mean that things would reverse immediately.

So enjoy the ride but keep an eye on where the emergency exit is.


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[kennynah]

nicely laid out, W

so, what's your take? buy or sell at this level? or simply watch further?

[winston]

Ha Ha ... I dont really know where the market is heading.

However, I may sell into the rally, if I think that I'm getting a relatively good price for things.

I will probably not short yet, until I see a very negative catalyst, a blow-out rally, the formation of a H&S or Double Top.

If I'm trading leveraged instruments, I may buy some Bull Call Warrants ( leverage 40x ) for a few hours...

[winston]

TOL as of February 12 2012:-

The Bursting of the Balloon ?



We are now touching the 7th week of the rally.

Is the balloon starting to burst now ?

Friday's action in HK and the US is a bit of a concern.



[The week in review:-

1. Oil - Stronger. US$99 from US$98 last week from US$100 the previous week.

2. Gold - Weaker. US$1717 from US$1727 last week from US$1732 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested

3. Silver - Flat. US$33.51 from US$33.62 last week from US$33.86 the previous week. Range High: $48.58; Range Low: US$27.19; Resistance at US$38 ?

4. Commodities - Who is stronger ? "Long Term EM Demand" or "Short Term Speculation" ?

5. Shanghai Equities - Stronger. 2352 from 2330 last week from 2319 the previous week. Support at 2150 ? Resistance at 2400 ?

6. HK Equities- Flat. 20784 from 20757 last week from 20502 the previous week. Resistance at 20600 then 22600 ? Support at 19000 ? Sold 1/3 Rexlot

7. Spore Equities- Stronger. 2960 from 2918 last week from 2916 the previous week. Sold 1/3 Global Investments

8. US Equities- Flat. 1343 from 1344 last week from 1316 the previous week. Support at 1205 ? At Resistance of 1345 - 1365

9. Japan Equities - Stronger. 8947 from 8832 last week from 8841 the previous week. Support at 8300 ? Resistance at 9050 - 9100 ?

10. JPY - Weaker. 77.59 from 76.61 last week from 76.68 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 79.50. The currency traders are afraid of being whacked by the Japanese government

11. Emerging Markets - Inflows; http://www.epfr.com

12. MYR to SGD - Stronger. 2.4026 from 2.4246 last week from 2.4325 the previous week. Being buying some MYR regularly.

13. AUD - Weaker. 1.0673 from 1.0761 last week from 1.0659 the previous week. Vested

14. EUR - Stronger. 1.3187 from 1.316 last week from 1.3220 the previous week.

15. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Higher; 6.61% from 5.70% last week from 5.90% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

16. USD - Stronger. 79.11 from 78.97 last week from 78.79 the previous week. Vested thru HKD. Not good for Commodities.

17. Properties - HK residential site, sold recently at at less than surveyors' estimates

18. Liquidity - Mixed. HKD 7.7564 from 7.7529 last week from 7.7561 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.7521 - 7.7972.

Average Daily Turnover on HKEX, at HK$75b from HK$68b last week from HK$60b the previous week.

Bank of England pumped another GBP 80b into their QE program, for a total of GBP 325b

19. Sentiment - Cautious. Greece is the word, that you heard. It's got groove it's got meaning. Greece is the time, is the place is the motion
Greece is the way we are feeling ...

20. Risk Management- There is always something to worry about

21. Economies of the Developed Markets- High Oil prices would not be too good for the DMs.

22. Hedge Funds- No major redemption

23. Deleveraging- Isn't this a good time to do some deleveraging ?

24. Interest Rates- Can you go below zero percent ?

25. Headwinds - European Contagion, Weak Economies of the DMs, Elevated Commodity Prices, Slower EM growth, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices in HK & China, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran

26. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Fair Equities Valuation, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing

27. Market Direction - Flat

Is the bursting of the balloon in process ?

Intuitively, I'm still expecting the formation of the "M" or "Triple Top", so there could be an uptick or two, before the burst.

A strong catalyst still has not appeared yet. And the additional requirement for Greece is peanuts in the whole scheme of things.

Maybe if Iran halt their Oil export to Europe and drive prices to US$140, then the bursting of the ballooon will occur.

And I need to remind myself that whenever a balloon burst, it's never a controlled situation.



The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of February 19 2012:-




Resistance

We are now approaching the 8th week of the rally.

And we are also reaching the top end of the resistance on the S&P, at 1364.

Would there be a break-out or would there be a reversal ?

How would everyone be reacting and more importantly, how would the machines be reacting ?



The week in review:-

1. Oil - Stronger. US$104 from US$99 last week from US$98 the previous week.

2. Gold - Flat. US$1723 from US$1717 last week from US$1727 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested

3. Silver - Flat. US$33.25 from US$33.51 last week from US$33.62 the previous week. Range High: $48.58; Range Low: US$27.19; Resistance at US$38 ?

4. Cattle - Record. Cattle futures rose to an all-time high for the 10th time this year as rising demand for U.S. beef tightens supply.

5. Shanghai Equities - Flat. 2357 from 2352 last week from 2330 the previous week. Support at 2150 ? Resistance at 2400 ? RRR cut by 50bps yesterday.

6. HK Equities - Stronger. 21492 from 20784 last week from 20757 the previous week. Resistance at 22600 ? Support at 19000 ? No trade

7. Spore Equities - Stronger. 3001 from 2960 last week from 2918 the previous week. No Trade

8. US Equities - Stronger. 1361 from 1343 last week from 1344 the previous week. Support at 1205 ? At Resistance. Will there be a break-out ?

9. Japan Equities - Stronger. 9384 from 8947 last week from 8832 the previous week. Support at 8300 ? Resistance at 9965 ?

10. JPY - Weaker. 79.09 from 77.59 last year from 76.61 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 79.50.

11. Emerging Markets - Inflows; http://www.epfr.com

12. MYR to SGD - Weaker. 2.4221 from 2.4026 last week from 2.4246 the previous week. Buying MYR on dips. Am concern out the upcoming GE.

13. AUD - Stronger. 1.0721 from 1.0673 last week from 1.0761 the previous week. Vested

14. EUR - Flat. 1.3147 from 1.3187 last week from 1.3160 the previous week.

15. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Lower; 5.576 from 6.61% last week from 5.70% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

16. USD - Stronger. 79.38 from 79.11 last week from 78.97 the previous week. Vested thru HKD.

17. Properties - The fall may take longer than expected, as the developers still have a lot of holding power except the smaller ones in China

18. Liquidity - Stronger. HKD 7.7539 from 7.7564 last week from 7.7529 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.7521 - 7.7972.

Average Daily Turnover on HKEX at HK$66b from HK$75b last week from HK$68b the previous week.

The second LTRO is scheduled for Feb. 29, with estimates that it may be two or three times the size of the first.

19. Sentiment - Bulls are still charging

20. Risk Management - Can you feel the fear in the air ?

21. Economies of the Developed Markets - Dont think there would be much changes over the next 9 months.

22. Hedge Funds - No major redemptions

23. Deleveraging - Will the downgrade of the Investment Banks, lead to some selling of existing positions ?

24. Interest Rates - Indonesia reduced interest rates by 25bps against market expectation

25. Headwinds - European Contagion, Weak Economies of the DMs, Elevated Commodity Prices, Slower EM growth, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices in HK & China, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran

26. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Fair Equities Valuation, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing

27. Market Direction - Stronger

I think we are close to the "show-time".

Will it be a "horror show" or just an "action-movie" ?

How would this show end ?

And do you know where's the emergency exit ?


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.