Oil & Gas 01 (May 08 - Jul 08)

[mojo_]

Interesting read from http://www.joe-duarte.com

Iran Contra: Bush Style?

Report: While The Missiles And The Taunts Fly..Behind The Scenes They're Talking..And Making Big Deals

The price of oil fell for two days running because the U.S. and Iran are having secret talks and one of the agreements is that neither side would let the price of crude oil rise above $150 per barrel, says Debka.com.

In what Debka, the highly sensational, but sometimes accurate Israeli "intelligence" web site that some say is a propaganda arm for the Mossad, describes as "talks between the US and Iranian delegations, representing President George W. Bush and Iranian supreme ruler Ayatollah Ali Khamenei," several key, yet "ad hoc" agreements have been reached.

Citing the inevitable "exclusive Gulf and Iranian sources" Debka reported that the U.S. has been "leaking" information to the media as part of its agreements with Iran, and thus keeping Israel from attacking Iran. Of course, as usual, nothing is set in stone and "neither nation has sheathed its military option" as the "understandings are ad hoc and could well break down in the volatile climate generated by hard-line elements of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, which are dead against deals with Washington."

And if you're looking for more interesting stuff, try this. Debka says that Iran has played a significant role in the U.S.'s ability to make inroads against Al-Qaeda in Iraq, as "Tehran ordered Iranian intelligence officers working undercover in Iraq to halt attacks on US troops by pro-Iranian militias, including Moqtada Sadr’s Mehdi Army," a fact that "has left US and Iraqi government force with free hands for large-scale operations against al Qaeda."

Furthermore "Iranian officers are also sharing useful intelligence on conditions in the field with American commanders," as the purpose of the excercise is "the Bush administration’s ambition to help fellow-Republican Senator John McCain get elected to the White House."

And to back that claime, "DEBKAfile’s Iran experts comment that the revolutionary regime in Tehran has traditionally preferred a Republican over a Democrat in the White House since the days when its founder, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, helped Ronald Reagan defeat Jimmy Carter." According to Debka, some of the agreements reached between Reagan and Tehran are still in place, and the White House is making use of them.

Conclusion

As far fetched as it sounds, this is plausible. After all, Iran-Contra did happen, and it happened with a Bush in the White House, albeit as the Vice President. And it is known that the U.S. and Iran have been having both up front as well as behind the scenes talks for years.

More important, the plausability of the scheme also fits the way the two day mini crash in oil happened, seemingly out of nowhere, just as things happen when a big hedge fund has to meet a margin call and sells big positions in a hurry.

Third, Debka also makes another interesting point that makes sense. Since these talks have supposedly been ongoing for some time, during which the situation in Lebanon, in which Iran and Syria have a big hand, have also calmed down.

So, if Debka is correct, the U.S. has had a big turnaround in the way it views Syria and Iran, and the repercussions of such a development, if indeed it is true, will be significant.

According to Debka, citing a Saudi source “A US-Iranian earthquake is rumbling under the surface of the Middle East, especially in Syria.”

[winston]

David Fuller (Fullermoney): Crude oil is key to stock markets

“I maintain that crude oil is currently the key influence on most stock markets. Given weaker oil prices, which we have seen so far this week, stock markets will surprise on the upside. Conversely, if oil were to resume its uptrend anytime soon, I believe this would weigh on most share indices.

“Barring another event-triggered spike to the upside, which would probably be temporary, I look for weaker oil prices following Tuesday’s big downward dynamic, yesterday’s lower low, and today’s break of the June reaction lows. Now watch for a lower high, before a medium-term correction is confirmed on a move beneath $120. The remaining question in my mind is whether or not crude oil thrashes around near current levels for a little while longer before heading lower.”

Source: David Fuller, Fullermoney, July 17, 2008.

[millionairemind]

Oil Rises From Six-Week Low on Tropical Storm, Iran's Nuclear

By Gavin Evans
July 21 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose from a six-week low in New York as a storm headed toward Mexico and tensions with Iran threatened to escalate after the world's fourth-largest oil producer resisted demands to suspend nuclear research.
U.S. forecasters said there is a 29 percent chance the storm may strengthen to a hurricane after it enters the Gulf of Mexico, which accounts for more than a quarter of U.S. oil output. Iran risks ``further isolation'' if it doesn't respond in two weeks to the United Nations offer of economic aid in return for halting uranium enrichment, U.S. officials said July 19.

``The National Hurricane Center shows Tropical Storm Dolly crossing the Gulf of Mexico toward the southernmost part of Texas,'' Andrew Lipow, president of Houston-based Lipow Oil Associates LLC, said in a report. ``I would expect some delays in loading and shipping crude from Mexico to the U.S.''

Crude oil for August delivery rose as much as $1.25, or 1 percent, to $130.13 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $129.79 at 12:25 p.m. in Singapore.

The contract fell 41 cents, or 0.3 percent, to settle at $128.88 on July 18, the lowest close since June 5. Prices dropped 11 percent last week, the most in more than three years, on signs of slowing global economic growth and faltering U.S. fuel demand.

Iran's Call

Iran snubbed Western efforts to get it to suspend nuclear enrichment at international talks in Geneva on July 19, setting the stage for new sanctions if the Islamic republic doesn't respond to an existing proposal in two weeks.

``We did not get what we were looking for,'' European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana said at a press conference following four hours of talks with Iran's top nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili.

The dispute with Iran ``has become a perpetual sticking point in the background of the crude market,'' said Gerard Burg, the energy and minerals economist at National Australia Bank in Melbourne. The dispute is like ``two rams butting up against each other. Neither one really wants to yield,'' he said.

Iran, the second-largest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, borders the Straits of Hormuz and has in the past threatened to close the waterway carrying about a fifth of the world's oil deliveries.

The UN has already imposed three sets of sanctions on Iran in an attempt to halt nuclear research the U.S. and Israel believe will be used to make weapons.

Brent Oil

Brent crude oil for September settlement rose as much as 99 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $131.18 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange.

New York oil prices have gained 35 percent this year as the Iranian dispute added to concerns about supplies from the world's largest producing region. Prices also rose as the falling U.S. dollar, weak global equity markets and supply disruptions in the North Sea and Nigeria encouraged investors to buy the commodity.

Still, prices have plunged more than $17, or 12 percent, from the record $147.27 a barrel reached on July 11. While signs of weakness in the U.S. economy played a role, the pace of the decline may reflect investor concern at Petroleos Mexicanos offering oil ``several years'' into the future at current prices, Burg said.

Rising demand outside Europe and the U.S. and the threat of supply disruption from hurricanes will keep oil prices ``in triple-figures for the foreseeable future,'' he said.

Hurricane Season

The North Atlantic hurricane season runs June through November. September is historically the busiest month for storms and hurricanes.

The northern Gulf of Mexico accounts for about 25 percent of U.S. oil production. Tropical Storm Dolly's projected path over the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula takes it north of Campeche Bay, where Petroleos Mexicanos produces about 1.07 million barrels of oil a day.

Dolly will cross the peninsula today, and may strengthen again as it crosses the gulf on a path that may take it toward the Mexico-Texas border, the U.S. National Hurricane center said. There is a 43 percent chance it will remain a storm, with wind speeds between 39 and 73 miles an hour and a 12 percent chance it will dissipate before making land a second time around July 24.

[kennynah]

let's all not get overly excited...about the languished Oil price...

technically, Oil needs to go below $122pbl before, we can technically pronounce the death of the bull...not before that...

just so we know....watch $122 level...with the rest of the world...this level cracks....pawn jewelleries and SHORT Oil....or at least, this is my current plan....hahahaha...

when that happens, then say again....stay flexible mah....tio bo...?

[b0rderc0llie]

Just checked with my broker, optionsxpress. I asked them if there are any options on crude oil futures which I can trade and this is their reply :"Sorry but Singapore accounts only are able to trade futures options for currencies and indicies and SSF."

For those trading in options on crude oil futures, which platform are you using?

[kennynah]

tos is not ready yet...but i have news that they are getting ready to offer options on CL ...if i recall, it''s to be by Jul end...

write to them and ask

[email protected]

after that, pls post their answer here ok...thanks.

[blid2def]

tos is not ready yet...but i have news that they are getting ready to offer options on CL ...if i recall, it''s to be by Jul end...

write to them and ask

[email protected]

after that, pls post their answer here ok...thanks.

IB can, IB can, IB can.

Na Na Na Na Na...

[kennynah]

Ok lah u win

[blid2def]

Ok lah u win

No lah, must find something to poon back... not that I trade /CL or the options anyway. Bo lui. Hahaha...

[HengHeng]

Selling options on crude is almost more than shorting on the futures .

Well poems also can but far more exp than those brokers you guys indicate.