Yanlord Land

[winston]

by behappyalways :-

Peter Lim increased his stake from 4.96% to 5.24%

And Peter Lim increased his stake from 5.24% to 6.03%

[winston]

Not vested

Up 12% on no news.

Has Housing in China recovered ?

[winston]

Wilmar's Boss, Kuo Khoon Hong also raised his stake from 4.94% to 5.01%.

As I have said, suddenly 3 BBs become visible. Why ?

[tonylim]

Coincidence ?

[winston]

not vested

Singapore-listed Chinese developer Yanlord Land Group may be in focus after ratings agencies Moody's and Standard & Poor's revised their outlook on the company to negative from stable.

Some of the concerns cited by S&P were Yanlord's weaker-than-expected contracted sales and its aggressive expansion despite the uncertain market conditions in China.

Yanlord's stock had surged on Wednesday after three Singapore tycoons raised their stake in the firm.

Source: Reuters

[tonylim]

Business Times - 17 Nov 2011

Rating agencies rain on Yanlord's tycoon sunshine

By KENNETH LIM

(SINGAPORE) It was the sort of day that no one linked with Yanlord Land Group Ltd will forget in a hurry. What might have begun as an occasion to clink champagne glasses ended with a flat taste in the mouth.

Yanlord got an early boost from three separate tycoons - billionaire Peter Lim, UOB Kay Hian chairman Wee Ee Chao and Wilmar International chairman Kuok Khoon Hong - when it emerged that they recently raised their deemed stakes in the company and were now substantial shareholders.But two ratings agencies yesterday downgraded Yanlord after the market closed, threatening to wipe out yesterday's share price gains and the feel-good factor that had flowed earlier in the day.

Citing weak sales, aggressive expansion and undertain market conditions, Standard & Poor's cut the China-based luxury real estate developer's regional rating to cnBB+ from cnBBB- with a negative outlook, but maintained the company's long-term rating at BB.

Moody's Investors Service on its part slashed Yanlord's senior unsecured bond rating to Ba3 from Ba2 with a negative outlook.

Yanlord's balance sheet will be under stress after the company pays 3.5 billion yuan for two projects in Shanghai and Zhuhai, Moody's said.

'Moody's expects Yanlord to increase its onshore borrowings to fund these acquisitions and pay for the S$375 million convertible bonds which could be put in 2012,' Moody's senior analyst Ken Chan said in a statement.

Wang Anyi, Yanlord head of corporate finance and relations, said the three men had not communicated with the company beyond disclosing their stakes.

She said Yanlord was still trying to determine how much stock the trio was actually holding, as individuals and as a group, because the recent purchases seemed to have been done through investment vehicles that may have been jointly controlled.

The rating cuts cast a shadow over earlier exuberance about the stock, which shot up by 12.7 per cent yesterday, or 13.5 cents, to close at $1.195 on overnight news about the tycoons' deemed stakes.

'It closed at $1.06 (on Tuesday), opened (yesterday) at $1.14 and rallied all the way to $1.21, and everybody was wondering what was going on,' said Manoj Chamanlal, a dealer at CIMB Securities.

Carol Wu, an analyst at DBS Vickers Securities in Hong Kong, said she would maintain her 'hold' recommendation on the stock, with a 12-month price target of $0.93.

She expected the stock to correct today in light of the credit downgrades.

She reckoned that the credit action was not a surprise, because major land acquisitions are seldom welcomed by bond investors.

Still, after the stock's sharp rally yesterday, 'If I'm a fund manager, I would not buy at this moment,' she added.

[winston]

not vested

Singapore-listed Chinese property developer Yanlord said on Thursday the chief operating officer of palm oil firm Wilmar International , Martua Sitorus, now held 5.10 percent of deemed interest in Yanlord shares, up from 4.65 percent.

Source: Reuters

[tonylim]

Price drifted , the 3 tycoons stop buying.

[winston]

not vested

Risks and catalysts

Key risks are slippage of new project launches in Chengdu and Shanghai. Net gearing rose from 49% to 96% during 2011 and if price and volume drop 20% and 30%, respectively, in 2012, net gearing would be 114% at the end of 2012, earnings would drop 44% below our estimate and NAV would be revised down 114%.

Key upside catalysts are policy relaxation and credit loosening.


NAV estimate of S$1.38, target price of S$1.09

Our end-2012 NAV estimate of S$1.38 includes S$2.57 of development properties for sale, S$0.42 of investment properties for lease, S$(1.17) of net debt and S$(0.44) of other liabilities.

Our NAV is based purely on existing land bank and historical beta of 1.15.

Our target price of S$1.09 is at a 21% discount to our NAV. It is derived from a DCF method, assuming land bank replenishment and no slowdown in sales in the medium term, and applying a forward beta of 2.0 (discount rate of 17.4%).

Our target price implies 10.3x 2011F and 9.7x 2012F PE, 0.8x mid-2011 PB and 1.0% 2011 dividend yield.

Source: Macquarie

[winston]

not vested

Yanlord Land Group (YLLG SP, $1.065) – The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has formed a negative divergence where prices rose to a higher high, but RSI (14) formed a lower low.

This is often a signal that a retracement is likely with candlesticks still below the key moving average.

Source: Kim Eng