Winston's Investment Ideas 02 (Apr 10 - Jul 12)

[winston]

TOL as of Sep 04, 2011:-


Is the technical rebound over ?



Where do we go from here ?

Will the people who missed the technical rebound, be using this dip, to buy ?

Or would the machines be going all out for the kill now ?



The week in review:-

1. Oil - Stronger. US$87 from US$85 last week from US$83 the previous week. Watching CNOOC.
Hurricane season starting but Summer Driving is winding down. Tropical Storm "Lee" has supposedly closed 50% of the refineries in the Gulf of Mexico.

2. Gold - Stronger. US$1882 from US$1828 last week from US$1853 the previous week. Record US$1916. Vested. Watching the gold stocks that have not moved in tandem with the price of gold.

3. Silver - Stronger. US$43.21 from US$41.30 last week from US$42.88 the previous week. High: $48.58; Low: US$33.49;

4. Other Commodities - Commodities are strong while stocks are tanking ? Something is not right.

5. Shanghai Equities - Weaker. 2528 from 2612 last week from 2535 the previous week. Support at 2350 then 2300 ? Can they afford to continue suspending the hike in RRR or Interest Rate ? Watching A50.

6. HK Equities- Stronger. 20213 from 19583 last week from 19400 the previous week. Support at 19,400 then 19,250 then 17,250 ? Sold Yangzhou Coal.

7. Spore Equities- Stronger. 2843 from 2748 last week from 2734 the previous week. No trade.

8. US Equities- Flat. 1174 from 1177 last week from 1124 the previous week. Support at 1120 ? Resistance at 1220 ?

9. Japan Equities - Stronger. 8951 from 8798 last week from 8719 the previous week. Getting close to the range low of 8650. Watching the Lyxor Japan ETF.

10. JPY - Weaker. 77.09 from 76.63 last week from 76.54 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.96 to 85.93.

11. Emerging Markets - Inflows; http://www.epfr.com/

12. Europe - Weaker. EUR @ 1.4205 from 1.4498 last week from 1.4402 the previous week.

13. USD - Stronger. 74.74 from 73.73 last week from 73.99 the previous week.

14. Properties - What is the path of least resistance ?

15. Liquidity - Stronger. HKD @ 7.7881 from 7.7961 last week from 7.7955 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.7500 - 7.8113.

16. Sentiment - Weak. Are you scared stiff yet ?

17. Economies of Developed Markets - Feels like slow growth to me.

18. Risk Management- How much have you lost in the past month ?

19. Currency - What can I buy besides the CHF, SGD, CNY, EUR, CAD and AUD ?

20. Hedge Funds - Redemption by Sept 15th, for Oct 1st Deadline

21. Market Direction - Weak

The technical rebound on the S&P was about 8.5%. As you have lost about 3.7% over the past few days, you are now left with slightly more than half of your gains, assuming that you were smart enough to buy right at the bottom.

So will you now be selling, to lock in your remaining profits or is this the 50% retracement that you were waiting for, to buy ?

My gut instinct says that it's time to stagger in the buying, especially if your counter has a strong catalyst.

The headwinds are known, the fear is great and there's plenty of cash on the sidelines.

The only unknown, is how the machines would be behaving. Would they be going all out for the kill or would they be more rational and be using this dip, to cover their short positions ?

Finally, I'm also quite uncomfortable with the volatility. So it's also a good time to stagger in the buying, as betting against my own emotions is normally the right thing to do.


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.

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[winston]

TOL as of Sep 11, 2011:-


9/11 Incident - Some Reflections



On this anniversary of the 911 incident, it's timely to reflect on a few things:-

On that day, did the thought cross your mind, that the world would be ending ? And did it ?

And a few days after the incident, did the thought cross your mind that it was probably a non-event and things may rebound quickly ? And did it rebound that quickly ?

So what are the investment lessons for you, from this unfortunate incident ?

Finally, did you also think of those people, who lost their lives on that day ?


The week in review:-

1. Oil - Flat. US$87 from US$87 last week from US$85 the previous week.
Watching Petrochina. Hurricane season is. And are they starting to store oil on those oil tankers ?

2. Gold - Weaker. US$1855 from US$1882 last week from US$1828 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested

3. Silver - Weaker. US$41.44 from US$43.21 last week from US$41.30 the previous week. High: $48.58; Low: US$33.49;

4. Other Commodities - If there's a spike in the USD, wouldnt Commodities be slammed ?

5. Shanghai Equities - Weaker. 2498 from 2528 last week from 2612 the previous week. Support at 2350 then 2300 ? Will they actually decrease the RRR ?

6. HK Equities- Weaker. 19867 from 20213 last week from 19583 the previous week. Support at 19,400 then 19,250 then 17,250 ? Bought Anhui Conch, CNBM and China Yurun. Sold Yangzhou Coal.

7. Spore Equities- Weaker. 2825 from 2843 last week from 2748 the previous week. Added to Wilmar.

8. US Equities- Weaker. 1154 from 1174 last week from 1177 the previous week. Support at 1120 ? Resistance at 1220 ?

9. Japan Equities - Weaker. 8738 from 8951 last week from 8798 the previous week. Getting closer to the range low of 8650.

10. JPY - Weaker. 77.77 from 77.09 last week from 76.63 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.96 to 85.93.

11. Emerging Markets - Outflows; http://www.epfr.com/

12. EUR - Weaker. EUR @ 1.3651 from 1.4205 last week from 1.4498 the previous week.

13. USD - Stronger. 77.15 from 74.74 last week from 73.73 the previous week.

14. Properties - How's the bid / ask spread on your investment property ?

15. Liquidity - Weaker. HKD @ 7.7962 from 7.7881 last week from 7.7961 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.7500 - 7.8113.

16. Sentiment - Weak. Aren't you glad that you are in Cash earning 0.1% ?

17. Economies of Developed Markets - How long does it take an aircraft carrier to turnaround ?

18. Risk Management- Have you been thinking of "Greed, Fear, Arrogance and Ignorance" ?

19. Currency - Some "experts" are asking you to buy the NOK

20. Window Dressing - 20 more days and this quarter's closing will also be used to determine their Christmas bonus.

21. Hedge Funds - Have not seen huge redemptions

22. Market Direction - Weak

If you are Scalping or even Swing Trading, the path of least resistance is probably down.

If you are Position Trading, it may be the time to stagger in the buying, especially if there's a strong catalyst, with a big safety of margin.

Finally, If you cant stand the heat, then you should not really be in the kitchen


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


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[winston]

TOL as of Sep 18, 2011:-


Christmas Window Dressing?




If you are an American or European Long Fund Manager, it's that time of the year, where the closing price of your portfolio on Sept 30, would determine the amount of your Christmas Bonus, if any.

In view of this, what would you be doing ?

And in the past, you the Long Fund Manager, have been trimming your lousy positions and adding to your better performing positions, at this time of the year..


The week in review:-

1. Oil - Flat. US$88 from US$87 last week from US$87 the previous week.
Watching Petrochina. Hurricane season is now here.

2. Gold - Weaker. US$1813 from US$1855 last week from US$1882 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested

3. Silver - Weaker. US$40.66 from US$41.44 last week from US$43.21 the previous week. High: $48.58; Low: US$33.49;

4. Other Commodities - When will the high USD and global slowdown hurt Commodities?

5. Shanghai Equities - Weaker. 2482 from 2498 last week from 2528 the previous week. Support at 2350 then 2300 ? Will they actually decrease the RRR for the smaller banks ?

6. HK Equities- Weaker. 19455 from 19867 last week from 20213 the previous week. Resistance at 20050. Support at 18,600 then 17,250 ? No Equities trade, only Warrants.

7. Spore Equities- Weaker. 2789 from 2825 last week from 2843 the previous week. Sold Wilmar. Added to OUE.

8. US Equities- Stronger. 1216 from 1154 last week from 1174 the previous week. Support at 1120 ? Resistance at 1220 ?

9. Japan Equities - Stronger. 8864 from 8738 last week from 8951 the previous week. Range Low 8650. Time to buy ? And why are you buying ? Hated, Cheap, and now, uptrend ?

10. JPY - Stronger. 76.80 last week from 77.77 last week from 77.09 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.96 to 85.93. And when will the high JPY affect the Nikkei ?

11. Emerging Markets - Outflows again; http://www.epfr.com/

12. EUR - Stronger. EUR @ 1.3794 from 1.3651 last week from 1.4205 the previous week. Do you dare to short, when the Central Banks of the world, are trying to provide liquidity to Europe ?

13. USD - Weaker. 76.60 from 77.15 last week from 74.74 the previous week.

14. Properties - Have you been receiving a lot of SMS and cold calls lately, from your friendly neighbourhood real estate agent ? And a few "experts" are now calling for a correction in HK & China, within 12 to 18 months.

15. Liquidity - Stronger, towards the end of the week. HKD @ 7.7922 from 7.7962 last week from 7.7881 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.7500 - 7.8113.

16. QE / Twist: I dont see the Feds doing anything for the time being, unless there's a big drop in the market. They only have US$1.6t left and Operation Twist could easily cost US$1t.

17. Sentiment - Stronger, in view of the perceived support for Europe by the Central Banks of the world.

18. Economies of Developed Markets - How useful are those US weekly data ?

19. Risk Management- What have you missed in your analysis ?

20. Euribor / OIS Spread: The difference between the three- month euro interbank offered rate and overnight index swaps, was at 77.2 basis points on Sept 15, down from 79.6 Sept 14 and 84.6 on Sept. 12, which was the highest level since March 2009.

21. Window Dressing - 2 more weeks

22. Hedge Funds - GS just closed one of their Quant Funds. Arent the Quants supposed to be the Masters of the Universe ?

23. Market Direction - Stronger

How long can this rally go on ?

Is Europe a non-event now, especially with the Central banks of the world, providing them with the required Liquidity ?

Will you be using the rally to sell or will you be buying high and trying to sell higher ?



The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


Please Note:-

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Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

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[winston]

TOL as of Sep 25, 2011:-


Selling on the Technical Rebound ?





This is the last week for Window Dressing.

And if there's a technical rebound ( hopefully, with some help from Window Dressing ), will you be selling into that rebound ?

Or would you hanging in there and try to go thru the rout ?

If you are 100% cash before the plunge, would you now be deploying your cash ? Or are you so scared stiff, that you would prefer to have 0.5% for your cash, instead of losing 15% on your trades ?


The week in review:-

1. Oil - Weaker. US$80 from US$88 last week from US$87 the previous week.
Watching CNOOC & Petrochina. When is the next Hurricane ? Where's the bottom ? US$65 ?

2. Gold - Weaker. US$1643 from US$1813 last week from US$1855 the previous week. Record US$1920. Broke thru the 50% retracement of US$1700. Vested

3. Silver - Weaker. US$31.09 from US$40.66 last week from US$41.44 the previous week. High: $48.58; Broke thru the previous low was US$33.49

4. Other Commodities - Weaker. Now that the high USD and the perceived global slowdown have hurt Commodities, where's the Support ?

5. Shanghai Equities - Weaker. 2433 from 2482 last week from 2498 the previous week. Support at 2350 then 2300 ? Will they actually decrease the RRR for the smaller banks ?

6. HK Equities- Weaker. 17669 from 19455 last week from 19867 the previous week. Resistance at 20050. Support at 17,250 ? No Equities trade.

7. Spore Equities- Weaker. 2699 from 2789 last week from 2825 the previous week. No trade.

8. US Equities- Weaker. 1136 from 1216 last night from 1154 the previous week. Support at 1120 then 1090 and 1050 ? Resistance at 1220 ?

9. Japan Equities - Weaker. 8560 from 8864 last week from 8738 the previous week. Support at 8500 then 8100.

10. JPY - Stronger. 76.69 from 76.80 last week from 77.77 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.96 to 85.93.

11. Emerging Markets - Outflows; http://www.epfr.com/

12. EUR - Weaker. EUR @ 1.3491 from 1.3794 last week from 1.3651 the previous week.

13. USD - Stronger. 78.26 from 76.60 last week from 77.15 the previous week. And why would you want to be in the USD, with their Deficit, Slowdown and Low Interest Rate ?

14. Properties - How long will be the down-cycle ?

15. Liquidity - Weaker. HKD @ 7.8024 from 7.7922 last week from 7.7962 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.7500 - 7.8113.

16. QE / Twist: Some "experts" are saying that the US$400b Twist, is part one of the series to provide Liquidity into the market. And that's also why Helicopter was deliberately negative on his economic outlook, to set the stage for part two. It's also getting close to the Presidential Election and I'm expecting many "goodies" to be doled out.

17. Sentiment - Weaker. Is it world ending ? It's getting to 2012

18. Economies of Developed Markets - Most parrots are talking about a Double Dip now.

19. Risk Management- You have to anticipate instead of react, as there's always not enough time to react.

20. Window Dressing - last week

21. Hedge Funds - Oct 15th deadline, for redemptions on Jan 1, 2012

22. Market Direction - Weaker

If you are a Trader, isnt the market still in it's trading range ?

If you are a Long Term Value Investor, isnt your margin of safety getting bigger now ?

If you are a Momentum Player, are you still confident that the path of least resistance is still downwards ?


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of October 02, 2011:-


Where's the bottom ?



Are you afraid yet ?

Are you having second thoughts about being in the market again ?

Are you thinking of worst-case scenarios now ?

If you are, then the bottom may be closer than you think.

And if you are not, then the bottom may still be quite far away ...



The week in review:-

1. Oil - Weaker. US$79 from US$80 last week from US$88 the previous week.
Watching CNOOC & Petrochina. When is the next Hurricane ?

2. Gold - Weaker. US$1625 from US$1643 last week from US$1813 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested

3. Silver - Weaker. US$29.90 from US$31.09 last week from US$40.66 the previous week. High: $48.58; Previous Low: US$33.49; Not vested yet

4. Other Commodities - Weaker. Which Commodity should I focus on ?

5. Shanghai Equities - Weaker. 2359 from 2433 last week from 2482 the previous week. Support at 2350 then 2300 ? One week of Golden Week Holiday. So what would they be announcing ?

6. HK Equities- Weaker. 17592 from 17669 last week from 19455 the previous week. Resistance at 20050. Support at 17,000 ? No trade.

7. Spore Equities- Weaker. 2675 from 2699 last week from 2789 the previous week. No trade.

8. US Equities- Weaker. 1131 from 1136 last week from 1216 the previous week. Support at 1120 then 1090 and 1050 ? Resistance at 1220 ?

9. Japan Equities - Stronger. 8700 from 8560 last week from 8864 the previous week. Support at 8500 then 8100.

10. JPY - Weaker. 77.05 from 76.69 last week from 76.80 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.96 to 85.93. The Japanese government has authorized another US$200b for market intervention. Their total war chest is now supposedly about US$600b vs a US$4t ADT for the global forex market.

11. Emerging Markets - Outflows; http://www.epfr.com/

12. EUR - Weaker. EUR @ 1.3381 from 1.3491 last week from 1.3794 the previous week.

13. USD - Stronger. 78.79 from 78.26 last week from 76.60 the previous week.

14. Properties - Can Properties be strong when the stock market is weak ?

15. Liquidity - Stronger. HKD @ 7.7862 from 7.8024 last week from 7.7922 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.7500 - 7.8113.

16. Sentiment - Weaker. Does it matter since the Retail Investors are no longer in the markets ?

17. Economies of Developed Markets - How deep and how long ? How about another 3 years of muddling through ?

18. Risk Management- 0% on Cash is better than -10% for a "7% Yield Dividend Stock"

19. Hedge Funds - Oct 15th deadline, for redemptions on Jan 1, 2012

20. Market Direction - Weaker

As Window Dressing is over, it may be a good idea to short the market, on any technical rebound.

At the same time, it may be necessary to have a TSL, in case the machines decides to cover their short positions.

I think the market will be weak for at least another month or two, until the next Window Dressing session, in the middle of December.

I should clean up my watch-list now. And I need to remind myelf to focus only on those stocks, that can go thru a Recession and whose fundamentals have not really changed with this rout.

If I decide to buy, it could also be "dead money" for a year and I'm not sure that I'm comfortable with such a long term investment, at this point in time.


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of October 09, 2011:-


Buy, Sell or Hold ?



Now that the market has rebounded, what are you going to do ?

Are you going to wait and buy on the next dip ?

Are you going to sell into this rally and then try to buy back on the next dip ?

Are you going to buy, hoping that the momentum upwards, will continue ?

Are you going to short, hoping that this is a dead cat bounce ?

Are you going to hold, hoping that you will be able to break-even later ?


The week in review:-

1. Oil - Stronger. US$83 from US$79 last week from US$80 the previous week.
Watching CNOOC & Petrochina. Where are the Hurricanes ?

2. Gold - Stronger. US$1636 from US$1625 last week from US$1643 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested

3. Silver - Stronger. US$31.14 from US$29.90 last week from US$31.09 the previous week. High: $48.58; Low: US$29.84; Not vested yet

4. Sugar- U.S. sugar stockpiles are shrinking to the lowest in 37 years after rain and freezing weather damaged the beet crop, which supplied 42 percent of the sugar consumed by Americans last year.

5. Shanghai Equities - A week of Public Holidays. 2359 from 2433 previous week from 2482 two weeks ago. Support at 2350 then 2300 ? No announcements on RRR or interest rates yet

6. HK Equities- Stronger. 17707 from 17592 last week from 17669 the previous week. Resistance at 20050. Support at 17,000 ? No trade.

7. Spore Equities- Weaker. 2640 from 2675 last week from 2699 the previous week. No trade.

8. US Equities- Stronger. 1155 from 1131 last week from 1136 the previous week. Support at 1120 then 1090 and 1050 ? Resistance at 1175 then 1220 ?

9. Japan Equities - Weaker. 8606 from 8700 last week from 8560 the previous week. Support at 8500 then 8100.

10. JPY - Stronger 76.70 from 77.05 last week from 76.69 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.96 to 85.93.

11. Emerging Markets - Outflows; http://www.epfr.com/

12. EUR - Flat. EUR @ 1.3378 from 1.3381 last week from 1.3491 the previous week.

13. USD - Flat. 78.75 from 78.79 last week from 78.26 the previous week.

14. Properties -

a. HK Transactions during Golden Week Holidfays is down 40%. "Experts" expecting 10% to 15% decline in HK prices.

b. China's property Developers facing a liquidity squeeze ?

15. Liquidity - Stronger. HKD @ 7.7821 from 7.7862 last week from 7.8024 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.7500 - 7.8113.

16. Sentiment - Stronger. Bargain Hunting or Short Covering ?

17. Economies of Developed Markets - How long will be this muddling through ?

18. Risk Management- Did you manage to protect yourself over the past few months ?

19. Hedge Funds - Oct 15th deadline, for redemptions on Jan 1, 2012

20. Market Direction - Stronger

Now that the markets are stronger, will you be selling into the rally or waiting for the next dip, to buy ?

This is also the second week of a rebound yet a lot of people are still scared stiff.

And have economic fundamentals really changed from a month ago, 3 months ago or even 6 months ago ?

The inexperienced shorts may be slaughtered this time, as well as the inexperienced bull.

This is still a Trading Market and I should behave accordingly.

Finally, I still have not seen the formation of a "W" or a "Triple Bottom" yet, so it may still be too early to go long on a "Position Trade".

However, Sentiments have certainly improved so this could be start of the "V" rebound.


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[kennynah]

W : i see that you investment/trading does not not include going Short?

[winston]

I cant short HK stocks because of residency requirements.

So if I want to short, it will have to be thru a Put Warrant, probably on the Hang Seng Index which is more liquid.

Alternatively, I can also buy a S&P Inverse ETF in Singapore.

[winston]

TOL as of October 16, 2011:-


Did you missed the boat ?



It has been about 2 weeks since the market rebounded.

Have you already accepted that maybe the market is rebounding ?

Or are you still living in the past ie. Greece, European Contagion, S&P US Downgrade, poor US Economic Data etc. ?

And if you did not managed to get out before the plunge, will you now be selling into the rally ?


The week in review:-

1. Oil - Stronger. US$87 from US$83 last week from US$79 the previous week.
Watching CNOOC. No more Hurricanes for this season ?

2. Gold - Stronger. US$1681 from US$1636 last week from US$1625 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested

3. Silver - Stronger. US$32.16 from US$31.14 last week from US$29.90 the previous week. High: $48.58; Low: US$29.84; Not vested yet

4. Cattle - Record high due to increasing demand from three new FTAs and decreasing supply.

5. Shanghai Equities - Stronger. 2431 from 2359 last week from 2433 the previous week. Support at 2350 then 2300 ? Will they be reducing RRR or interest rates ? And is Wenzhou, the first of the cockroaches, to appear ?

6. HK Equities- Stronger. 18502 from 17707 last week from 17592 the previous week. Resistance at 19500 ? Support at 16250 ? No Equities trade.

7. Spore Equities- Stronger. 2744 from 2640 last week from 2675 the previous week. No trade.

8. US Equities- Stronger. 1225 from 1155 last week from 1131 the previous week. Support at 1120 ? Next Resistance at 1270 ?

9. Japan Equities - Stronger. 8748 from 8606 last week from 8700 the previous week. Support at 8500 then 8100.

10. JPY - Weaker. 77.22 from 76.70 last week from 77.05 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.96 to 85.93.

11. Emerging Markets - Inflows ; http://www.epfr.com/

12. AUD - Stronger @ 1.0345

13. EUR - Stronger. EUR @ 1.3878 from 1.3378 last week from 1.3381 the previous week.

14. USD - Weaker. 76.61 from 78.75 last week from 78.79 the previous week.

15. Properties - 12% of the Property Agents have closed shop in Beijing.

16. Liquidity - Stronger. HKD @ 7.778 from 7.7821 last week from 7.7862 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.7500 - 7.8113.

17. Sentiment - Stronger. Bargain Hunting or Short Covering ?

18. Economies of Developed Markets - Will this muddling through last another 2 years ?

19. Risk Management- According to the BIS, the amount of all outstanding foreign exchange, interest rate, equity-linked, commodity and credit default swaps have reached US$600 trillion. Do you think you have enough time to run when the fire starts ?

20. Hedge Funds - Oct 15th deadline, for redemptions on Jan 1, 2012

21. Market Direction - Stronger

The parrots are now talking about a strong "V" rebound.

Some of them are even saying that Europe is now a non-issue, especially with the leveraging of the ESSF.

Other talking heads are talking about better-than-expected US economic data, better-than-expected US Earnings, China's loosening etc.

The TA experts are also saying that as long as 1220 is taken out, the market will be marching upwards.

As for myself, I know that when there's a fire, I'll not be able to run as fast as the others. Therefore, it's better for me to prepare for that fire, while others are partying.

However, that does not mean that I have to sell everything and be in 100% Cash. However, it does mean knowing where's the emergency exit and then walking slowly towards it.

Intuitively, I think this party could last until early January. But will there be a fire first and then another party at year end ? The typical "W" or "Triple Bottom", that you see before a strong rally ...


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind
thoughts and comments



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[winston]

TOL as of October 23, 2011:-


Breakout ?





It looks like we are now getting the breakout on the S&P.

And everyone is expecting the EU, to come out with some positive announcement by Wednesday.

Will this be a case of "Sell on Fact" ?

Or a case where money will flow back from Bonds to Equities ?


The week in review:-

1. Oil - Flat. US$87 from US$87 last week from US$83 the previous week. No more Hurricanes for this season ? Libyan Oil of 500k bpd will be hitting the markets by year end ( out of 1.5m bpd before their civil war )

2. Gold - Weaker. US$1640 from US$1681 from US$1636 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested

3. Silver - Weaker. US$31.33 from US$32.16 last week from US$31.14 the previous week. High: $48.58; Low: US$29.84; Not vested yet

4. Sugar - Weaker. Glut may persist through 2013. Sugar already fell 25 percent since reaching a three-decade high in February.

5. Shanghai Equities - Weaker. 2317 from 2431 last week from 2359 the previous week. Support at 2300 ? Will they be reducing RRR or interest rates?

6. HK Equities- Weaker. 18026 from 18502 last week from 17707 the previous week. Resistance at 19500 ? Support at 16250 ? Sold & Bought back Anhui Conch & CNBM.

7. Spore Equities- Weaker. 2712 from 2744 last week from 2640 the previous week. Added to Fraser Commercial. Sold 40% OUE.

8. US Equities- Stronger. 1238 from 1225 last week from 1155 the previous week. Support at 1120 ? Next Resistance at 1270 ?

9. Japan Equities - Weaker. 8679 from 8748 last week from 8606 the previous week. Support at 8500 then 8375 ? Do you have a good reason to buy Japanese Equities ?

10. JPY - Stronger. 76.29 from 77.22 last week from 76.70 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.96 to 85.93.

11. Emerging Markets - Outflows from Inflows last week; http://www.epfr.com

12. AUD - Stronger @ 1.037 from 1.0345 last week

13. EUR - Stronger. EUR @ 1.3896 from 1.3878 last week from 1.3378 the previous week.

14. USD - Weaker. 76.39 from 76.61 last week from 78.75 the previous week.

15. Properties - Macquarie is expecting a 10% drop in HK prices within 12 months

16. Liquidity - Weaker. HKD @ 7.782 from 7.778 last week from 7.7821 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.7500 - 7.8113.

17. Sentiment - Stronger towards the end of the week.

18. Economies of Developed Markets - Are things getting worst ?

19. Risk Management- Time to be careful with the Shorts and Puts

20. Hedge Funds - How's the redemptions ? Perry Cap closed their HK office.

21. Leverage - Do we have a deleveraging process going on ? And what are the consequences ? What will be affected ?

22. Market Direction - Stronger towards the end of the week

Now that we are getting that breakout, what are you going to be doing ?
1. Will you be buying ?
2. Waiting for the dip before you swing ?
3. Sell into the strength because you are scared stiff ? or
4. Short-Selling / Buying some Puts because you dont believe in charts ?


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind
thoughts and comments.


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.