Winston's Investment Ideas 02 (Apr 10 - Jul 12)

[winston]

TOL as of Jun 12, 2011:-


Window Dressing Time ?




No much of a Window Dressing so far.

Are they keeping their bullets for options expiry next week ?

And if you have been shorting, what would you be doing next week ? Cover and put the money in your pocket or be greedy and go for the kill ?


The week in review:-

1. Oil - US$99 fromUS$100 last week from US$101 the previous week. Tailwinds from Summer Driving and then Hurricane Season ?

2. Gold - US$1532 from US$1543 last week from US$1537 the previous week. New plateau ?

3. Silver - US$36.16 from US$36.23 last week from US$37.96 the previous week. High: $48.58. Low: US$33.49;

4. Other Commodities - Corn at record prices.

5. Shanghai Equities - 2706 from 2728 last week from 2710 the previous week. Next Support at 2675 then 2600 ? Will there be a RRR hike or Interest Rate hike this week-end ?

6. HK Equities- 22420 from 22950 last week from 23118 the previous week. Bought back 1/2 Rexlot

7. Spore Equities- 3146 from 3136 last week from 3169 the previous week. Sold First Resources; Added to China Animal Healthcare; Bought Wilmar

8. US Equities- 1271 from 1300 last week from 1331 last week from 1333 the previous week. Support at 1260 then 1235 ?

9. Japan Equities - 9514 from 9492 last week from 9522 the previous week. Surprisingly quite strong. Range Low is around 8800.

10. JPY - 80.21 from 80.38 last week from 80.63 the previous week. The 52 week range is 76.25 to 94.98. When will the high Yen affect the Nikkei ?

11. Emerging Markets - Outflows

12. Europe - EUR @ 1.4346 from 1.4634 last week from 1.4321 the previous week.

13. USD - 74.86 from 73.81 last week from 74.96 the previous week. Stronger. Can you feel the fear in the air yet ?

14. Properties - Will China be announcing the Housing Windfall tax this week-end ? Mortgage rates in HK are going up and they are requiring more downpayment as well.

15. Liquidity - Weaker. HKD @ 7.7840 from 7.7766 last week from 7.7805 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.7500 - 7.8067. The average turnover on HK was HK$71b from HK$67b last week from HK$59b the previous week.

16. QE2 - What will happen after June ?

17. Sentiment - Weaker

18. Economies of Developed Markets - Does it feel like a robust recovery ?

19. Risk Management- Risk can only be managed if you can identify it, as well as be able to assign a probability around it

20. Window Dressing - 2H Closing coming up

21. Market Direction - Weak

If the market rallies due to Window Dressing, I would probably be using the opportunity to reduce my current positions.

If it does not rally, I will probably hold and go through this soft patch. Not sure that I will be adding more positions unless there's a strong catalyst or the valuation is very compelling.

Things are soft but it does not mean we will see a sharp correction. Anyway, I still cant really feel the fear in the air so I'm not expecting a sharp correction yet.

I could be wrong though as it's the machines that are trading nowadays not humans.


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


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[iam802]

Personally, I have close off my PUTS but, that's because it is expiring next week. Rather than chase the last few days, it is better to keep the major bulk of the profits.

Having said that, I am ready to establish new PUTS position with a timeframe to close off by mid July.

I am going to be very careful going towards the end of June. Not too sure how the market will react with the end of QE2. But more importantly, I think economic data is not going to be that bad from July onwards.

[Chinaman]

I am going to be very careful going towards the end of June. Not too sure how the market will react with the end of QE2. But more importantly, I think economic data is not going to be that bad from July onwards.

Most investors looking to with unease & anxiety.
with the end of QE2 would see inflation easing due to there being no further increase in liquidity.

QE2 involves the increase of money supply which then used to buy govt bonds and other financial assets such as mortgage backed securities and corporate bonds.

[winston]

TOL as of Jun 19, 2011:-


No Window Dressing ?




It looks like the big boys are afraid to window dress this quarter.

The Greek issue seems to be on top of their mind although the EUR 12b is already there, waiting to be released to the Greeks.

When you have gone thru a "Lehman Crisis', you tend to see every other situation as a potential Lehman Crisis



The week in review:-

1. Oil - US$93 from US$99 last week from US$100 the previous week. Higher USD contributing to lower prices ?

2. Gold - US$1540 from US$1532 last week from US$1543 the previous week. Am reminding of myself of my investment horizon. I 'm already vested for 11 years. So why worry about some short-term gyrations ?

3. Silver - US$35.84 from US$36.16 last week from US$36.23 the previous week. High: $48.58. Low: US$33.49; Everyone is saying that silver will not go up because of new margin requirements. However, it has been stabilizing at this level for a few weeks already.

4. Other Commodities - When would the "speculative money" be leaving the Commodities play ?

5. Shanghai Equities - 2644 from 2706 last week from 2728 the previous week. Next Support at 2600 ? Will there be a RRR hike or Interest Rate hike this week-end ?

6. HK Equities- 22420 from 22950 last week from 23118 the previous week. No trade. 2000 Points drop since Jun 1.

7. Spore Equities- 3005 from 3146 last week from 3136 the previous week. Added to China Animal Healthcare.

8. US Equities- 1272 from 1271 last week from 1300 the previous week. Support at 1260 then 1235 ? Sold 2/3 S&P Inverse ETF

9. Japan Equities - 9351 from 9514 last week from 9492 the previous week. Weaker. Range Low is around 8800. When will the high Yen affect the Nikkei ?

10. JPY - 80.05 from 80.21 last week from 80.38 the previous week. The 52 week range is 76.25 to 94.98.

11. Emerging Markets - Inflows

12. Europe - EUR @ 1.4307 from 1.4346 last week from 1.4634 the previous week. Premier Wen will be in Europe next week. Will not surprised me if the Chinese will try to get some brownie points by investing in some European Debts.

13. USD - 75.46 from 74.86 last week from 73.81 the previous week. Stronger. And is this causing Commodities to drop ?

14. Properties - When will China be announcing the Housing Windfall tax ?

15. Liquidity - Weaker. HKD @ 7.7901 from 7.7840 last week from 7.7766 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.7500 - 7.8043. The average turnover on HK was HK$68b from HK$71b last week from HK$67b the previous week.

16. QE2 - What will happen after June ?

17. Sentiment - Weaker; The short-sellers are having a field day creating fear, by telling people about the European Contagion.

18. Economies of Developed Markets - zzzzzzz .... zzzzzz

19. Risk Management- Sell first, Investigate later ?

20. Window Dressing - 2H Closing coming up

21. Market Direction - Weak

Since market direction is weak, it may be safer to conserve some of the bullets.

More importantly, I'm kicking myself for not really shorting the HSI. How can I missed such a great shorting opportunity ? ( 2000 points drop in 2 weeks ! ).

Is it because I was so afraid of Window Dressing that I missed the fear in the market ? Werent there adequate signs eg. high short-selling, weak HKD, low turnover, weak IPO etc. ?

And where do we go from here ? Trying to short at the end of the downdraft and get whip-sawed ? Or wait for the rebound before shorting ? Or going long because of Window Dressing ? And what would happen if Premier Wen suddenly announce next week, that they would be buying a lot of European debt to diversify their forex reserves from the USD ?


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


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[winston]

TOL as of Jun 26, 2011:-


End of QE2 & Window Dressing





If you are afraid of a plunge, this would be your last week to get out

Window Dressing will be over and QE2 will supposedly be ending.

However, before you panic, you may want to keep in mind that the market always plunge before the turnaround. That's when the weak holders get shaken out and when there's no more sellers, the only way is up.

But where are we in that cycle ? Are we close to the bottom or are we just starting the ride downwards ?



The week in review:-

1. Oil - Weaker. US$91 from US$93 last week from US$99 the previous week. The IEA is releasing 2m bpd for 30 days. In contrast, the production lost from Libya is 1.2m bpd. Looks like they really want to whack the Oil Speculators.

2. Gold - Weaker. US$1503 from US$1540 last week from US$1532 the previous week. Will gold be able to stay high if Equities and other Commodities are plunging ? Vested

3. Silver - Weaker. US$34.28 from US$35.84 last week from US$36.16 the previous week. High: $48.58. Low: US$33.49;

4. Other Commodities - First, the speculators got burnt on Silver. Now, they are being cut to pieces on Oil. How long can they last ? More importantly, what would they be selling to meet their margin requirements ?

5. Shanghai Equities - Stronger. 2746 from 2644 last week from 2706 the previous week. Support at 2600. Will they be using the rebound in Equities, to hike RRR or Interest Rate this weekened ?

6. HK Equities- Strong Rebound on Friday. 22172 from 22420 last week from 22950 the previous week. 1530 points ( 6.5% ) drop since Jun 1. Scalping on the HSI.

7. Spore Equities- Stronger. 3067 from 3005 last week from 3146 the previous week. No trade.

8. US Equities- Weaker. 1269 from 1272 last week from 1271 the previous week. Support at 1260 then 1235 ? 200 Day MA at 1263.

9. Japan Equities - Stronger. 9679 from 9351 last week from 9514 the previous week. Range Low is around 8800. When will the high Yen affect the Nikkei ?

10. JPY - Still strong. 80.41 from 80.05 last week from 80.21 the previous week. The 52 week range is 76.25 to 94.98.

11. Emerging Markets - Inflows

12. Europe - Weaker. EUR @ 1.4188 from 1.4307 last week from 1.4346 the previous week. Premier Wen is in Europe next week. Let's see whether the Chinese will try to get some brownie points

13. USD - Stronger. 76.21 from 75.46 last week from 74.86 the previous week. Risk-Off trades.

14. Properties - Still Expensive. When will China be announcing the Housing Windfall tax ?

15. Liquidity - Weaker. HKD @ 7.791 from 7.7901 last week from 7.7840 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.7500 - 7.8043. The average turnover on HK was HK$69b from HK$68b last week from HK$71b the previous week.

16. QE2 - Non-event. Helicopter's speech seems to leave room for additional stimulus if the economy is weaker than expected.

17. Sentiment - Still weak. Will not take much, for people to panic.

18. Economies of Developed Markets - The 3 Snails of US, Europe and Japan are crawling slowly

19. Risk Management- How do you guard against complacency ?

20. Window Dressing - It's the last week that the fund managers can make their numbers nicer. But do they have the cash ? And what about redemptions if the market continued to be weak ?

21. Currency - I have some HKD, AUD, SGD, MYR and EUR. With Europe imploding now and China slowing down, I should sell my EUR and AUD. But what to convert them to ? I dont want more SGD or GLD. And I also think that the CNY trade is too crowded ...

22. Market Direction - Weak

Just when you thought that the problems in Greece has been sorted out, the Italian Banks plunged ...

Just when you thought that China has their 5.5% inflation under control, Vietnam reports an inflation rate of 21% ...

Just when you thought that Oil is a sure thing, the IEA released 60 billion barrels of oil ...

Just when you thought that Silver is real money, it crashed ...
.
Just when you thought that it's safe to go back into the water, this guy suddenly appeared :-





The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


Please Note:-


Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.


Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.


Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Jul 03, 2011:-



QE2 & Window Dressing is over. Now What ?

Now that the Window Dressing rally has happened and that QE2 has expired, what is the path of least resistance ?

Do you really think that the market can continue on it's current trajectory and that the buying is genuine ?

Do you really think that the global economies are humming along that smoothly and the various risks out there has disappeared eg. MENA Contagion, European Contagion, China's Tightening, China's Frauds, High Raw Material Costs, Lower Margins, Government Debts etc.


The week in review:-

1. Oil - Stronger. US$95 from US$91 last week from US$93 the previous week. Now that they have used their silver bullet by releasing the 2m bpd for 30 days, do they have anything else to defend themselves ?

2. Gold - Weaker. US$1484 from US$1503 last week from US$1540 the previous week. Very seldom do you get such a divergence from Oil.

3. Silver - Weaker. US$33.90 from US$34.28 last week from US$35.84 the previous week. High: $48.58. Low: US$33.49;

4. Other Commodities - Do you really believe that prices can fly to the moon ? Unless it's a staple commodity, there will be demand destruction. Example: I dont need to drink coffee if it's going at Sin$20 a cup.

5. Shanghai Equities - Stronger. 2759 from 2746 last week from 2644 the previous week. Support at 2600. Will they be using the rebound in Equities, to hike RRR or Interest Rate ?

6. HK Equities- Strong Rebound. 22398 from 22172 last week from 22420 the previous week. No trade.

7. Spore Equities- Stronger. 3139 from 3067 last week from 3005 the previous week. No trade

8. US Equities- Strong Rebound. 1340 from 1269 last week from 1272 the previous week. Support at 1260.

9. Japan Equities - Stronger. 9868 from 9679 last week from 9351 the previous week. Range Low is around 8800. When will the high Yen affect the Nikkei ?

10. JPY - Still strong. 80.74 from 80.41 last week from 80.05 the previous week. The 52 week range is 76.25 to 94.98.

11. Emerging Markets - Outflows from Asia.

12. Europe - Weaker. EUR @ 1.4524 from 1.4188 last week from 1.4307 the previous week.

13. USD - Weaker. 74.58 from 76.21 last week from 75.46 the previous week. Risk-On Trades.

14. Properties - When will China be announcing the Housing Windfall tax ?

15. Liquidity - Stronger. HKD @ 7.7818 from 7.791 last week from 7.7901 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.7500 - 7.8043. The average turnover on HK was HK$66 from HK$69b last week from HK$68b the previous week.

16. QE2 - Non-event.

17. Sentiment - Still weak. Was the buying due to Window Dressing, Short-Covering or Bargain Hunting ?

18. Economies of Developed Markets - Two steps forward; One step back

19. Risk Management- Need to reduce my exposure to China. The NPLs will be haunting them soon.

20. Window Dressing - Did you really think that the rally was due to genuine buying ?

21. Currency - Still looking for a stable currency besides the SGD, CNY, EUR, CAD and AUD.

22. Market Direction - Stronger but was it due to Window Dressing ?

I did not managed to sell into the strength this week.

Although prices have gone up, they were not at a price where it was a screamming sell.

My Allocation to Equities remains at 34% with Gold at 10%.

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Jul 10, 2011:-


What is the Path of Least Resistance ?



Now that Window Dressing and QE3 is over, what will sustain the market ?

Would it be Short-Covering ? Or the upcoming Earnings Season ? Or maybe the outflows from Fixed Income into Equities ?

As the market is rallying and I can't answer the above simple question, I would rather be selling into the strength, then to hang around.

This is because whenever I hang around, I always get myself into trouble.


The week in review:-

1. Oil - Stronger. US$96 from US$95 last week from US$91 the previous week. How's Summer Driving this year ?

2. Gold - Stronger. US$1543 from US$1484 last week from US$1503 the previous week. Looks like people are buying on dips.

3. Silver - Stronger. US$36.71 from US$33.90 last week from US$34.28 the previous week. High: $48.58. Low: US$33.49; If Gold remains strong, will Silver also go up ?

4. Other Commodities - Strong showing by Copper. Can it last ? China's Copper Inventories are supposedly low but the Chinese economy is also slowing.

5. Shanghai Equities - Stronger. 2798 from 2759 last week from 2746 the previous week. Support at 2600. When is the next hike in RRR or Interest Rate ?

6. HK Equities- Stronger. 22726 from 22398 last week from 22172 the previous week. Added to Rexlot.

7. Spore Equities- Stronger. 3151 from 3139 last week from 3067 the previous week. Sold Wilmar.

8. US Equities- Strong Rebound. 1344 from 1340 last week from 1269 the previous week. Support at 1260.

9. Japan Equities - Stronger. 10138 from 9868 last week from 9679 the previous week. When will the high Yen affect the Nikkei ?

10. JPY - Stronger. 80.61 from 80.74 last week from 80.41 the previous week. The 52 week range is 76.25 to 94.98.

11. Emerging Markets - Inflows

12. Europe - Weaker. EUR @ 1.4264 from 1.4524 last week from 1.4188 the previous week.

13. USD - Stronger. 75.08 from 74.58 last week from 76.21 the previous week.

14. Properties - When will China be announcing the Housing Windfall tax ?

15. Liquidity - Slightly Weaker. HKD @ 7.7824 from 7.7818 last week from 7.791 last week. 52-week range is 7.7500 - 7.8043.

16. Sentiment - Slightly Stronger. Is the buying sustainable ?

17. Economies of Developed Markets - What rebound ?

18. Risk Management- I need to reduce my exposure to Equities from the current 35% to 15%

19. Currency - I've to look for a stable currency besides the CHF, SGD, CNY, EUR, CAD and AUD.

20. Market Direction - Stronger than expected

A few weeks ago, everyone was talking about the end of the world, from Greece.

And over the past few days, the markets have been rallying as if everything is perfect.

Do you know why you are buying or selling ?

As for me, I'll continue to sell into any strength.

Why buy something after it has doubled from the low while there are so many headwinds ?

And would you be able to run, when everyone starts running for the exit ?



The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.



Please Note:-


Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.


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Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Jul 17, 2011:-





Standing Aside Again ( And Again )

This is starting to become a trend.

I have not traded again for the entire week

I cant really tell where the market is heading, except that there's some negative bias.

And I also dont want to short as I'm afraid of being whip-sawed during the US Earnings Season



The week in review:-

1. Oil - Stronger. US$97 from US$96 last week from US$95 the previous week. Would this year's Summer Driving be affected ? Not vested

2. Gold - Stronger. US$1592 from US$1543 last week from US$1484 the previous week. Is this going to be another
multi-year rally ? Vested.

3. Silver - Stronger. US$39.27 from US$36.71 last week from US$33.90 the previous week. High: $48.58. Low: US$33.49; Not vested

4. Other Commodities - Soyabean and Cheese are up strongly. Will Commodities correct ?

5. Shanghai Equities - Stronger. 2820 from 2798 last week from 2759 the previous week. Support at 2600. When is the next hike in RRR or Interest Rate ?

6. HK Equities- Weaker. 21875 from 22726 last week from 22398 the previous week. No Trade

7. Spore Equities- Weaker. 3084 from 3151 last week from 3139 the previous week. No Trade

8. US Equities- Weaker. 1316 from 1344 last week from 1340 the previous week. Support at 1260.

9. Japan Equities - Weaker. 9974 from 10138 last week from 9868 the previous week. When will the high Yen affect the Nikkei ?

10. JPY - Stronger. 79.11 from 80.61 last week from 80.74 the previous week. The 52 week range is 76.25 to 94.98.

11. Emerging Markets - Outflows; http://www.epfr.com/

12. Europe - Weaker. EUR @ 1.4148 from 1.4264 last week from 1.4524 the previous week. Greece then Portugal then Italy. Who's next ? And for many decades more ?

13. USD - Slightly Stronger. 75.13 from 75.08 last week from 74.58 the previous week. Risk-Off trades ?

14. Properties - Restrictions now extended to 2nd Tier and 3rd Tier Chinese cities. When will China be announcing the Housing Windfall tax ?

15. Liquidity - Weaker. HKD @ 7.7941 from 7.7824 last week from 7.7818 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.7500 - 7.8043.

16. Sentiment - Weaker. And what could trigger some strong buying ? US Earnings above expectations ?

17. Economies of Developed Markets - When will be the next recession ?

18. Risk Management- Wanting to sell is not selling. Do it !

19. Currency - What can I buy besides the CHF, SGD, CNY, EUR, CAD and AUD ?

20. Market Direction - Weak

If you are a Scalper, are you able to consistently close that gap ?

If you are a Swing or Position Trader, do you really know what's the Market Direction ?

If you are a Contrarian Investor, dont you think that it's a bit too early to buy or sell ?

If you a Dividends Investor, is that 7% dividend enough to compensate for your Capital Loss ?


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.



Please Note:-


Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.


Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.


Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Jul 24, 2011:-


Another week of waiting




I think that I'm hitting my 6th week of not doing anything.

Towards the end of the week, the Bulls seems to have the upper hand.

Anyway, let's see whether they can continue with their charge forward. Maybe they would be able to come out with a band-aid solution to the US Debt Ceiling and Greek Default issues. And the Catalyst could come from some positive US earnings surprises...


The week in review:-

1. Oil - Stronger. US$100 from US$97 last week from US$96 the previous week. Hurricane Season this year is supposedly going to be quite bad due to the warm temperature. See the "Oil" topic below:-
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=3494&start=110

2. Gold - Stronger. US$1603 from US$1592 last week from US$1543 the previous week. Another record. Vested

3. Silver - Stronger. US$40.12 from US$39.27 last week from US$36.71 the previous week. High: $48.58;
Low: US$33.49; Not vested

4. Other Commodities - Still strong. And can a strong USD affect things ?

5. Shanghai Equities - Weaker. 2771 from 2820 last week from 2798 the previous week. Support at 2600. When is the next hike in RRR or Interest Rate ?

6. HK Equities- Stronger. 22455 from 21875 last week from 22726 the previous week. No Trade

7. Spore Equities- Stronger. 3183 from 3084 last week from 3151 the previous week. No Trade

8. US Equities- Stronger. 1345 from 1316 last week from 1344 the previous week. Resistance at 1345 and then 1375.

9. Japan Equities - Stronger. 10132 from 9974 last week from 10138 the previous week. When will the high Yen affect the Nikkei ?

10. JPY - Stronger. 78.41 from 79.11 last week from 80.61 the previous week. The 52 week range is 76.25 to 94.98. Why is the Yen so strong when interest rates are so low and the economy so sluggish ?

11. Emerging Markets - Inflows; http://www.epfr.com/

12. Europe - Stronger. EUR @ 1.4362 from 1.4148 last week from 1.4264 the previous week.

13. USD - Stronger. 74.25 from 75.13 last week from 75.08 the previous week.

14. Properties - When will China be announcing the Housing Windfall tax ?

15. Liquidity - Stronger. HKD @ 7.7911 from 7.7941 last week from 7.7824 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.7500 - 7.8043.

16. Sentiment - Stronger. Greece should be almost sorted out and if they can also reach an agreement on the debt ceiling, the shorts would have to cover.

17. Economies of Developed Markets - Credit Card spending was up. Is that a sign of strength or weakness ?

18. Risk Management- How long will be this debt deleveraging ? See Ray Dario's comment in the "Market Guru" section:-
viewtopic.php?f=42&t=3998

19. Currency - What can I buy besides the CHF, SGD, CNY, EUR, CAD and AUD ?

20. Market Direction - Stronger

Is this a technical rebound or a genuine rally ?

Will you be buying on dips now or selling into the strength ?

Will you be investing your Cash ( assuming that you are not fully invested ) or will you be trying to raise Cash during this rally ?

Do you know what you are doing or are you so frightened, that you just want to get out ?


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.



Please Note:-


Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.


Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.


Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Jul 31, 2011:-


Month Two of Inactivity




My outlook has not really changed from two months ago.

It's still as clear as mud, possibly with a negative bias.

This reminds me of the period after the AFC, where the market did not go anywhere for 18 months.

Hopefully, we will not have to wait that long this time, for some action.



The week in review:-

1. Oil - Weaker. US$96 from US$100 last week from US$97 the previous week. Strong demand from Summer Driving ? And disruption later from Hurricane Season ? And when will the Iraqi Oil be coming online ?

2. Gold - Stronger. US$1626 from US$1603 last week from US$1592 the previous week. Another record. Vested

3. Silver - Weaker. US$39.95 from US$40.12 last week from US$39.27 the previous week. High: $48.58; Low: US$33.49; Not vested

4. Other Commodities - Copper Futures Rises on Supply Concern as BHP Mine Workers Extend Strike

5. Shanghai Equities - Weaker. 2702 from 2771 last week from 2820 the previous week. Support at 2600. When is the next hike in RRR or Interest Rate ?

6. HK Equities- Flat. 22440 from 22455 last week from 21875 the previous week. No Trade

7. Spore Equities- Flat. 3189 from 3183 last week from 3084 the previous week. No Trade

8. US Equities- Weaker. 1301 from 1345 last week from 1316 the previous week. Resistance at 1345. Support at 1300 then 1260.

9. Japan Equities - Weaker. 9833 from 10132 last week from 9974 the previous week. When will the high Yen affect the Nikkei ?

10. JPY - Stronger. 76.72 from 78.41 last week from 79.11 the previous week. The 52 week range is 76.25 to 94.98. Why is the Yen so strong when interest rates are so low and the economy sluggish ?

11. Emerging Markets - Inflows; http://www.epfr.com/

12. Europe - Stronger. EUR @ 1.4403 from 1.4362 last week from 1.4148 the previous week. Can the plug the hole in the dyke ?

13. USD - Weaker. 73.75 from 74.25 last week from 75.13 the previous week.

14. Properties - When will China be announcing the Housing Windfall tax ?

15. Liquidity - Weaker. HKD @ 7.7937 from 7.7911 last week from 7.7941 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.7500 - 7.8043.

16. Sentiment - Weaker. It's so funny that we are still worrying about Europe and the US Debt Ceiling, as if they are something new.

17. Economies of Developed Markets - So what else is new ?

18. Risk Management- Need to remind me of the 4 horsemen ie. Greed, Fear, Arrogance & Ignorance.

19. Currency - What can I buy besides the CHF, SGD, CNY, EUR, CAD and AUD ? Yesterday, somebody was also recommending the Norwegian Krona and the Chilean Peso viewtopic.php?f=32&t=498&start=20

20. Market Direction - Weaker. Do you dare to short during the US Earnings Season ?



The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.



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