Winston's Investment Ideas 02 (Apr 10 - Jul 12)

[winston]

TOL as of Apr 10, 2011:-


Selling into Strength


I've been using the rally in the past 2 weeks to reduce my exposure to Equities.

I'm very uncomfortable with the current situation. It feels like I cant invest for the long term anymore but have to continuosly trade the short-term volatilities.

Prices are gyrating wildly while fundamentals have not really changed ...



The week in review:-

1. Oil - US$113 from US$108 last week from US$106 the previous week. Stronger than expected. The parrots have been talking about a quick US$30 drop for two weeks now. Maybe everyone is now worried about the Nigerian elections.

2. Gold - US$1475 from US$1429 last week from US$1425 the previous week. Record price for gold. My exposure to gold is around 8% of my portfolio.

3. Other Commodities - Silver at over US$41.

4. Shanghai Equities - 3030 from 2967 last week from 2978 the previous week. As expected, we got out interest rate hike during the Ching Ming holiday. So when is the next RRR hike ? Resistance at 3015 taken out. Next Resistance at 3150 ? Support at 2775 ?

5. HK Equities- 24396 from 23802 last week from 23159 the previous week.
Sold Hidili and 1/3 Real Gold. Traded China Longyuan ( no more exposure )

6. Spore Equities- 3187 from 3126 last week from 3071 the previous week.
Sold Sri Trang

7. US Equities- 1328 from 1332 last week from 1314 the previous week. Stronger than expected. Resistance at 1350 ? Support at 1275 and then 1235 ?

8. Japan Equities - 9768 from 9708 last week from 9536 the previous week. Range Low is around 8800. Resistance at 11,000 ? Still waiting for a good entry point.

9) JPY - 84.75 from 84.065 last week from 81.13 the previous week. Weaker. The 52 week range is 76.25 to 94.98. Will the weak Yen continue to spur the rally on the Nikkei?

10. Emerging Markets - Inflows

11. Middle East Contagion - So what if there's a collapsed in Libya and Yemen ?

12. Europe - EUR @ 1.4483 from 1.4236 last week from 1.4075 the previous week. Stronger.

13. USD - Weaker. 75.07 from 76.08 last week from 76.38 the previous week.

14. Properties - I have been getting a lot of SMS and Cold Calls from the Real Estate Agents. And Hutchinson is now commencing lawsuits in China against buyers, who have been walking away from their purchases.

15. Liquidity - Stronger. HKD @ 7.7713 from 7.7781 last week from 7.7957 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.750-7.807;

16. Sentiment - Stronger than last week

17. Economies of Developed Markets - Slow and steady recovery

18. Risk Management - Still trying to reduce my exposure to Chinese Equities

19. Market Direction - Stronger than last week. However, you will need to decide on whether you want to play in this type of volatile market, both on the upside and downside.

If you want to play, then you will need to be a very Short Term trader, have an Exit Strategy, Tight Stops, Smaller Positions and be very Nimble.

Anyway, I know that I'm not able to react and run as fast as the others. Therefore, I have been reducing my exposure to Equities while I wait for the correction.

I'm very fully aware that inflation may eat into the Cash for a short period but I'm quite confident that I would be well rewarded if I buy after the correction.

I think that there's just too many short-term traders and it's an accident waiting to happen ...


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.

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[winston]

TOL as of Apr 17, 2011:-


Doing Nothing

I did not trade this week. This is because I feel that prices are not low enough to buy and not also high enough to sell.

It's one of those periods where your time is better spent doing other things eg. watching the flowers bloom, having lunches with friends, watching a movie etc, instead of staring at the screen. Anyway, let's review the numbers for the week ..


The week in review:-

1. Oil - US$109 from US$113 last week from US$108 the previous week. The focus is now on Nigeria.

2. Gold - US$1487 from US$1475 last week from US$1429 the previous week. Another record price for gold.

3. Other Commodities - When will high raw material prices bring down evrything ?

4. Shanghai Equities - 3051 from 3030 last week from 2967 the previous week. Resistance at 3150 ? Support at 2775 ?

5. HK Equities- 24008 from 24396 last week from 23802 the previous week. No trade.

6. Spore Equities- 3153 from 3187 last week from 3126 the previous week. No trade.

7. US Equities- 1320 from 1328 last week from 1332 the previous week. Resistance at 1350 ? Support at 1275 ?

8. Japan Equities - 9592 from 9768 last week from 9708 the previous week. Range Low is around 8800. Resistance at 11,000 ?

9) JPY - 83.045 from 84.75 last week from 84.065 the previous week. The 52 week range is 76.25 to 94.98.

10. Emerging Markets - Inflows

11. Middle East Contagion - Probably a non-event now.

12. Europe - EUR @ 1.4427 from 1.4483 last week from 1.4236 the previous week.

13. USD - Weaker. 75.025 from 75.07 last week from 76.08 the previous week.

14. Properties - Have the real estate agents been cold-calling you or sending SMS to you ?

15. Liquidity - Weaker. HKD @ 7.7746 from 7.7713 last week from 7.7781 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.750-7.807;

16. Sentiment - Weaker than last week

17. Economies of Developed Markets - Why bother watching a snail crawl ?

18. Risk Management - Need to reduce my exposure to Asia, especally Singapore

19. Market Direction - Weaker than last week.

Everyone was expecting the US earning seasons to provide the catalyst for the market to move higher. Instead, it has been a slight disappointment.

Headwinds include High Commodity Prices especially Oil, Nigeria Election, MENA Contagion, European Contagion, China Tightening, Higher Inflation, Higher Interest rates, Lower Margins etc

Tailwinds include Third Year of the Presidential Cycle, Shifting of money from Bonds to Equities, Low Fixed Deposit Rates, Strong Growth in the EMs etc.


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

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Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

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[winston]

TOL as of Apr 24, 2011:-




Happy Easter Weekend !

The Easter weekend used to be my favourite weekend.

It's the weekend that we will normally have the first BBQ of the new year, after a long cold winter.

At this time, the spring flowers are also in full bloom and lawn is nice & green. One can also again take those long leisure walks.

During times like this, who would want to be thinking about the markets ?

Anyway, I'm no longer living in those cold countries so the Easter weekend is no longer that meaningful to me.

So it's back to looking at the markets, while the people living in the cold countries are enjoying their first BBQ of the season .


The week in review:-

1. Oil - US$112 from US$109 last week from US$113 the previous week. Stronger than expected. Weak USD and potential problems in Nigeria are not helping.

2. Gold - US$1503 from US$1487 last week from US$1475 the previous week. Another record price for gold.

3. Other Commodities - When will high commodity prices affect earnings ?

4. Shanghai Equities - 3011 from 3051 last week from 3030 the previous week. Resistance at 3150 ? Support at 2775 ?

5. HK Equities- 24138 from 24008 last week from 24396 the previous week. No trade. And Valuation is no longer that attractive.

6. Spore Equities- 3195 from 3153 last week from 3187 the previous week. Sold 1/2 OUE. And how will the GE affect things ?

7. US Equities- 1337 from 1320 last week from 1328 the previous week. Resistance at 1350? Support at 1275? Stronger than expected

8. Japan Equities - 9682 from 9592 last week from 9768 the previous week. Range Low is around 8800. Resistance at 11,000 ?

9) JPY - 81.87 from 83.045 last week from 84.75 the previous week. The 52 week range is 76.25 to 94.98. When will the high Yen affect the Nikkei ?

10. Emerging Markets - Inflows

11. Middle East Contagion - Yawn Yawn ...

12. Europe - EUR @ 1.4566 from 1.4427 last week from 1.4483 the previous week. Parity Parrots - where are you ?

13. USD - Weaker. 74.18 from 75.025 last week from 75.07 the previous week.

14. Properties - Is the smart money buying or selling ?

15. Liquidity - Stronger. HKD @ 7.7711 from 7.7746 last week from 7.7713 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.750-7.807

16. Sentiment - Stronger towards the end of the week

17. Economies of Developed Markets - Yawn Yawn ...

18. Risk Management - Are you ready to run when the next round of correction begins ?

19. Market Direction - Stronger than last week.

The markets have been stronger than expected and the shorts have again been caught off guard again. There's still no fear in the air so it's still not the time to have a big short position.

At the same time, since the markets have already doubled and that there are plenty of headwinds eg. MENA Contagion, European Contagion, Slow US & Japanese growth, China's tightening, Inflation, High Price of Commodities especially Oil, Earnings Downgrade etc.., it may also not be a good idea to have a big long position.

So Cash is probably the place to be in. However, do you have the patience to stay in Cash ? And didn't the Financial Planners tell you that Inflation will be slowly eating into your savings ?


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


Please Note:-


Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.


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Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.


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[winston]

TOL as of May 1, 2011:-





Sell in May and Go Away ?

It's May already ! And for the people living in the cold countries, the nice warm weather is finally there.

They have had a very cold winter this year. And the weather went from Winter to Summer this year , without much of a Spring.

Therefore, I can see them taking some time off to appreciate the nice weather, before the cold returns in about 4 months.

And if that's the case, what's the path of Least Resistance for the markets ?


The week in review:-

1. Oil - US$114 from US$112 last week from US$109 the previous week. Stronger than expected. Nigeria, a non-event now ?

2. Gold - US$1563 from US$1503 last week from US$1487 the previous week. Another record price for gold

3. Other Commodities - When will Demand Destruction occur ?

4. Shanghai Equities - 2912 from 3011 last week from 3051 the previous week. Resistance at 3150 ? Support at 2775 ? Will they be announcing a RRR hike, Interest Rate hike, Housing Windfall Tax etc this week-end ?

5. HK Equities- 23721 from 24138 last week from 24008 the previous week. Bought Rexlot and added to Real Gold.

6. Spore Equities- 3180 from 3195 last week from 3153 the previous week. Dont see much happening, even if the Opposition wins

7. US Equities- 1364 from 1337 last week from 1320 the previous week. Next Resistance at 1375? Support at 1275?

8. Japan Equities - 9850 from 9682 last week from 9592 the previous week. Range Low is around 8800. Resistance at 11,000 ?

9) JPY - 81.23 from 81.87 last week from 83.045 the previous week. The 52 week range is 76.25 to 94.98. When will the high Yen affect the Nikkei ?

10. Emerging Markets - Fifth week of Inflow and it has regained about 50% of the Outflows of the previous nine weeks. 50% retracement ?

11. Middle East Contagion - Probably a Non-Event now.

12. Europe - EUR @ 1.4805 from 1.4566 last week from 1.4427 the previous week. When will the high EYR affect their exports ?

13. USD - Weaker. 73.18 from 74.18 last week from 75.025 the previous week.

14. Properties - HK is increasing mortgage rates again. And when will China be announcing the Housing Windfall tax ?

15. Liquidity - Stronger. HKD @ 7.7761 from 7.7711 last week from 7.7746 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.750-7.807

16. QE2 - With the expiry of QE2 in June, what are the consequences ?

17. Sentiment - Stronger for the US markets but weaker for the Asian markets

18. Economies of Developed Markets - Economies are like big ships. They need time to turn around. And as long as they are turning around in the right direction, it's a Non-Event. However, the Markets are all over the place, anticipating the degree of the turn.

18. Risk Management - Is the Financial Crisis, the first round of a long decline ?

19. Market Direction - Stronger for the US markets but weaker for the Asian markets

I think that the markets will now be in a Trading Range with a downward bias.

And people are now also thinking about the expiry of QE2, in addition to the various headwinds eg. MENA Contagion, European Contagion, High Commodity prices, Lower Margins, China's Tightening, Earnings Downgrade, Food Inflation, Slow growth in Developed markets etc.

Am I being too negative here ? Am I being too conservative here ? Dont I know that the Universe will always be Expanding ? And that my Perception would always determine my Reality ?


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


Please Note:-


Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.



Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.


Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.


Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of May 8, 2011:-




Selling on the Rebound ?

This drop in Silver have caused other "risks-ons" trades to drop as well. So far, the AUD, GLD, Oil. EUR and Equities have been affected.

If there's a further collapse in the Commodities market, the contraction of Liquidity can spread very quickly.

I dont think this is the tme to be buying on dips. Rather it may be the time to sell on the technical rebound.

In addition, the weather is very nice and the traders may also want to also take some time off to enjoy the nice warm weather.


The week in review:-

1. Oil - US$98 from US$114 last week from US$112 the previous week. Dropping at last. Nigeria a non-event now ? Too early to buy.

2. Gold - US$1486 from US$1563 last week from US$1503 the previous week. Will Gold decouple from Silver ?

3. Other Commodities - Silver dropped from a high of US$48.58 to US$35.61. Waiting for a good entry point.

4. Shanghai Equities - 2864 from 2912 last week from 3011 the previous week. Resistance at 3150 ? Support at 2775 ? Will they be announcing a RRR hike, Interest Rate hike, Housing Windfall Tax etc this week-end ?

5. HK Equities- 23159 from 23721 last week from 24138 the previous week. No trade.

6. Spore Equities- 3104 from 3180 last week from 3195 the previous week. Bought back OUE. Will they be releasing some positive Analyst Reports on Monday and then using that to pump up prices ? If they do, I will be selling into that rally

7. US Equities- 1340 from 1364 last week from 1337 the previous week. Next Resistance at 1375? Support at 1275?

8. Japan Equities - 9859 from 9850 last week from 9682 the previous week. Range Low is around 8800. Resistance at 11,000 ?

9) JPY - 80.72 from 81.23 last week from 81.87 the previous week. The 52 week range is 76.25 to 94.98. When will the high Yen affect the Nikkei ?

10. Emerging Markets - Outflows ?

11. Middle East Contagion - Probably a Non-Event now.

12. Europe - EUR @ 1.4312 from 1.4805 last week from 1.4566 the previous week. When will the high EUR affect their exports ?

13. USD - Much stronger. 75.18 from 73.18 last week from 74.18 the previous week.

14. Properties - Transaction Volumes are down. And when will China be announcing their Housing Windfall tax ?

15. Liquidity - Weaker. HKD @ 7.7711 from 7.7761 last week from 7.7711 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.750-7.807

16. QE2 - With the expiry of QE2 in June, what are the consequences ?

17. Sentiment - Weaker; Will the collapse in Silver spread to all risky assets eg. Commodities, Equities and Properties ?

18. Economies of Developed Markets - I'm starting to think that their economies are not doing that well

19. Risk Management - The collapse in Silver is a good wake up call that your Stop Loss may not be able to protect you

20. Market Direction - Weaker

I think a lot of people were caught in the sharp correction in Silver. And they may have to sell other assets to cover their margin calls there.

If the plunge continues, all risky assets will continue to be affected eg. Gold, Oil, EUR, AUD, Equities etc.

I'm not sure that I want to be buying on the dips.

I would rather see where the botom is before I venture in, unless my stock has a very strong catalyst that can go against Market Direction.


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


Please Note:-


Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.



Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.


Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.


Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of May 15, 2011:-




Sitting on the Sidelines Again

The actions in the Commodities market is worrisome.

And it has spilled onto the other "risk-on" markets eg. AUD, Equiies etc

I think it's probably safer to lighten up any big positions until the dust has settled.

The margin calls may be coming in and that may lead to another round of selling.


The week in review:-

1. Oil - US$99 from US$98 last week from US$114 the previous week. How low can it go ? Waiting for a good entry point.

2. Gold - US$1493 from US$ US$1486 last week from US$1563 the previous week. What is a good entry point ?

3. Silver - US$35.37 from US$35.61 last week from high of US$48.58. What is a good entry point ?

4. Other Commodities - About US$17b were withdrawn from the Commodities Market last week.

5. Shanghai Equities - 2872 from 2864 last week from 2912 the previous week. Support at 2775 ? When would be the next RRR hike or Interest Rate hike ?

6. HK Equities- 23276 from 23159 last week from 23721 the previous week. No trade.

7. Spore Equities- 3164 from 3104 last week from 3180 the previous week. Added to OUE

8. US Equities- 1338 from 1340 last week from 1364 the previous week. Resistance at 1375? Support at 1275?

9. Japan Equities - 9649 from 9859 last week from 9850 the previous week. Range Low is around 8800.

10. JPY - 80.90 from 80.72 last week from 81.23 the previous week. The 52 week range is 76.25 to 94.98. When will the high Yen affect the Nikkei ?

11. Emerging Markets - Inflows

12. Europe - EUR @ 1.4115 from 1.4312 last week from 1.4805 the previous week. When will the high EUR affect their exports ?

13. USD - Sronger. 75.90 from 75.18 last week from 73.18 the previous week.

14. Properties - When will China be announcing the Housing Windfall tax ?

15. Liquidity - Weaker. HKD @ 7.7729 from 7.7711 last week from 7.7761 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.750 - 7.807

16. QE2 - Will there be QE 2.5 after June ?

17. Sentiment - Weaker;

18. Economies of Developed Markets - Why do you need to watch snails crawl every week ?

19. Risk Management - Will they be continuing to pull out money from all "risk-on" trades eg. EUR, AUD, Equities, Commodities etc. ?

20. Market Direction - Weaker

Second week of a pull-back. Cant see many heroes buying on the dip.

I think the path of Least Resistance may be sideways to downwards.

I dont think it's a good time to short, as I could be whip-sawed.

If there's a technical rebound, I may use the opportunity to lighten up on some of my existing holding.


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[Chinaman]

me too, sitting at sideline.....with a pile of opportunity fund.

Been eyeing at my favorite ppty but not a good time to buy, yet also not advisable to sell, hehe...do nothing lor...now ppty price still at all time high across the board.


Well, of cos everyone knows one day the market will fall.....look like not so far away....but i got a feeling this time round the Crisis will be very different from the past..currency crisis or others i dunno but with hyperinflation dat i m pity sure ..usually happen after a huge hike in interest rate.and US is the one to ignite this crisis again....

my wild tot...

[winston]

TOL as of May 22, 2011:-


Trading Break




As the market was directionless with a negative bias, I decided to take a trading break this week.

It was a good break and I'm now quite refreshed for next week

But just because I'm well rested, it also does not really mean that I have to trade next week.

It all depends on whether there's a good set-up or not. ( Thanks 802 - It's now ingrained in my mind )


The week in review:-

1. Oil - US$99 from US$99 last week from US$98 the previous week. Looks like it's stabilizing now. What's a good entry point ?

2. Gold - US$1509 from US$1493 last week from US$ US$1486 the previous week. What's a good entry point ?

3. Silver - US$35.04 from US$35.37 last week from US$35.61 the previous week. High: $48.58. What's a good entry point ?

4. Other Commodities - Is this a buying opportunity or would the correction continue for a little while more ?

5. Shanghai Equities - 2858 from 2872 last week from 2864 the previous week. Support at 2775 ? When's the next RRR or Interest Rate hike ?

6. HK Equities- 23199 from 23276 last week from 23159 the previous week. No trade.

7. Spore Equities- 3169 from 3164 last week from 3104 the previous week. No trade.

8. US Equities- 1333 from 1338 last week from 1340 the previous week. Resistance at 1375? Support at 1275?

9. Japan Equities - 9607 from 9649 last week from 9859 the previous week. Range Low is around 8800.

10. JPY - 81.90 from 80.90 last week from 80.72 the previous week. The 52 week range is 76.25 to 94.98. When will the high Yen affect the Nikkei ?

11. Emerging Markets - First outflow in 8 weeks

12. Europe - EUR @ 1.4158 from 1.4115 last week from 1.4312 the previous week. When will the high EUR affect their exports ?

13. USD - Stronger. 75.79 from 75.90 last week from 75.18 the previous week. Is this the range high ?

14. Properties - When will China be announcing the Housing Windfall tax ?

15. Liquidity - Weaker. HKD @ 7.7744 from 7.7729 last week from 7.7711 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.750 - 7.807

16. QE2 - Only 5 weeks left before it's expiry. And what has the US$600b done ?

17. Sentiment - Weaker

18. Economies of Developed Markets - The latest US numbers are not that good.

19. Risk Management - How fast can you run when there's a sudden crash ?

20. Market Direction - Weaker

I think that it's still not the time to buy yet as there's just too many uncertainties out there. including Expiry of QE2, Outflows from EM, China's Tightening, European Contagion, MENA Contagion, High Commodity Prices, Lower Margins, Earnings Downgrade, Inflation etc.

However, most of the above risks have been flagged for months. So why would one be surprised to see them surfacing ?

Maybe it's time to clean up the watch list and to wait for a positive catalyst before going shopping.


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


Please Note:-


Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.


Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.


Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.


Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of May 29, 2011:-




Waiting for Window Dressing

It was another boring week and I did not managed to trade again.

And how can I trade when there's no good catalyst and I cant really see the market direction again ?

On hindsight, I should have taken another week of trading break but my hands were itchy to do something

By the way, I have not really traded for a month already

So what's the point of being a full-time trader when you are not trading ? Might as well go back to the corporate world or start a business ...



The week in review:-

1. Oil - US$101 from US$99 last week from US$99 last week the previous week. Stabilizing and summer driving coming up. By the way, they are expecting 30m American Drivers to be on this road this Memorial Day weekend

2. Gold - US$1537 from US$1509 last week from US$1493 the previous week. Strong and everyone is talking of Chinese Demand

3. Silver - US$37.96 from US$35.04 last week from US$35.37 the previous week. High: $48.58. Range Low: US$33.49; Some "experts" are saying that the parabolic rise was actually due to short-covering and not real demand.

4. Other Commodities - How will the drought in China affect things eg. coal, corn, wheat, steel, aluminium etc. ?

5. Shanghai Equities - 2710 from 2858 last week from 2872 the previous week. Support at 2775 taken out convincingly. Next Support at 2675 ? When would be the next RRR hike or Interest Rate hike ? How deep is the slowdown ? And can you trust the numbers ?

6. HK Equities- 23118 from 23199 last week from 23276 the previous week. No trade. When will the shorts be covering ?

7. Spore Equities- 3136 from 3169 last week from 3164 the previous week. No trade.

8. US Equities- 1331 from 1333 last week from 1338 the previous week. Resistance at 1375? Support at 1275?

9. Japan Equities - 9522 from 9607 last week from 9649 the previous week. Range Low is around 8800.

10. JPY - 80.63 from 81.90 last week from 80.90 the previous week. The 52 week range is 76.25 to 94.98. When will the high Yen affect the Nikkei ?

11. Emerging Markets - Second week of outflow after 8 weeks of inflow

12. Europe - EUR @ 1.4321 from 1.4158 last week from 1.4115 the previous week. When will the high EUR affect their exports ? China supposedly will be buying some Portugese Bonds, to diversify their foreign reserves from the USD. I think it's more of politics than business.

13. USD - Weak. 74.96 from 75.79 last week from 75.90 the previous week. And did this contributed to the rise in Commodities this week ?

14. Properties - When will China be announcing the Housing Windfall tax ?

15. Liquidity - Weak. HKD @ 7.7805 from 7.7744 last week from 7.7729 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.7500 - 7.8067. The average turnover on HK was only HK$59b, down from an average of around HK$65b. When things were hot, turnover exceeded HK$100b

16. QE2 - What will happen after June ?

17. Sentiment - Weaker

18. Economies of Developed Markets - Can you have a strong US economy with poor Housing and Unemployment numbers ?

19. Risk Management- Cash is now King eventhough Infltion will be eating at it slowly. Do you have the patience to sit in Cash ?

20. Window Dressing - 2H Closing coming up

21. Market Direction - Directionless


These are the type of markets that will wear you down.

You dont know whether to Buy, Hold, Sell or Short.

You dont know whether to Scalp, Swing or Position Trade.

At the same time, you need to pay attention to it, in case any opportunity turns up.

With new money coming in from a new month and Window Dressing thereafter, hopefully, things would be more interesting next week.


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.

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[winston]

TOL as of Jun 05, 2011:-


Window Dressing Time ?




It's been a very weak week.

The 280 points drop on the Dow managed to take a lot of people by surprise.

And they are now probably thinking twice, about trying to front-run the Long Funds during Window-Dressing.

As for me, I will probably be using any rally, to reduce my overall exposure to the market. I think July may be a uglier and I want to raise as much cash as possible by the end of June.


The week in review:-

1. Oil - US$100 from US$101 last week from US$99 the previous week. Stabilizing and summer driving is coming up.

2. Gold - US$1543 from US$1537 last week from US$1509 the previous week. Grinding higher.

3. Silver - US$36.23 from US$37.96 last week from US$35.04 the previous week. High: $48.58. Range Low: US$33.49; Looks like Silver has decoupled from Gold.

4. Other Commodities - S&P said that a sudden slowdown in China may lead commodity prices to fall as much as 75 percent

5. Shanghai Equities - 2728 from 2710 last week from 2858 the previous week. Support at 2775 taken out convincingly. Next Support at 2675 then 2600 ? Will there be a RRR hike or Interest Rate hike this holiday week-end ?

6. HK Equities- 22950 from 23118 last week from 23199 the previous week. Sold 1/2 Rexlot

7. Spore Equities- 3146 from 3136 last week from 3169 the previous week. Sold 1/2 First Resources

8. US Equities- 1300 from 1331 last week from 1333 the previous week. Support at 1260 ?

9. Japan Equities - 9492 from 9522 last week from 9607 the previous week. Range Low is around 8800.

10. JPY - 80.38 from 80.63 last week from 81.90 the previous week. The 52 week range is 76.25 to 94.98. When will the high Yen affect the Nikkei ?

11. Emerging Markets - Inflows

12. Europe - EUR @ 1.4634 from 1.4321 last week from 1.4158 the previous week. Despite what the parrots are saying, I think Greece will probably be a non-event in the whole scheme of things.

13. USD - Weaker. 73.81 from 74.96 last week from 75.79 the previous week. Should be good for Commodities unless the Speculators decide to cash out en masse.

14. Properties - Will China be announcing the Housing Windfall tax this week-end ? Mortgage rates in HK are going up. Supposedly, a lot of Hong Kongers have been changing their HKD into RMB but GS did mentioned that it's not a problem

15. Liquidity - Stronger. HKD @ 7.7766 from 7.7805 last week from 7.7744 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.7500 - 7.8067. The average turnover on HK was HK$67b from HK$59b last week.

16. QE2 - What will happen after June ?

17. Sentiment - Weaker

18. Economies of Developed Markets - The US numbers dont looked too exciting.

19. Risk Management- Did you expect the 280 points drop on the Dow ? And a change in trend, normally begins with a sharp drop ..

20. Window Dressing - 2H Closing coming up

21. Market Direction - Weak

With the 280 points drop in the Dow, many market participants are now a bit more careful.

And not too long ago, they also saw the steep crash in Silver.

Sentiments are probably crushed and Window Dressing this quarter may now be a non-event.

If any rally does appear, it could also be short-lived as market participants may be selling into them.

At the same time, I dont think that it's time to short the markets yet.


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


Please Note:-


Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.


Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.


Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.