Winston's Investment Ideas 02 (Apr 10 - Jul 12)

[helios]

President Hu Jintao pays a state visit to the United States from January 18 to 21 at invitation of President Obama. Important catalyst to note for trading markets ...

[winston]

President Hu Jintao pays a state visit to the United States from January 18 to 21 at invitation of President Obama. Important catalyst to note for trading markets ...

Yes, some people have been buying the RMB in anticipation of a higher RMB before trip.

Not sure whether there would be any deals to be signed. Have not heard of anything so far ...

[winston]

TOL as of January 23, 2011:-


Climbing a Wall of Worry


As the US markets grind higher, some of the Asian markets took a breather.

It was noticably weak in Shanghai and the coming week-long holiday is also not helping things. It was also quite weak in HK and Japan towards the end of the week.

Elsewhere in the investment space, gold was very weak too.

So what are the above telling us ? Are we going to be facing some strong turbulence next week ? Or would the US Earnings continue to provide catalysts for the markets to go higher ?


The week in review:-

1. Oil - US$ 89.10 from US$91.67 last week from US$88.48 the previous week. Inventories was surprising high.

2. Gold - US$1341 from US$1360 last week from US$1369 the previous week. When you're expecting a parabolic ride, it gives you a sharp correction instead

3. Shanghai Equities - 2716 from 2791 last week from 2839 the previous week. Support at 2580 now? SSE would probably be weak next week, going into the week-long CNY holidays.

4. HK Equities - 23877 from 24283 last week from 23687 the previous week.
Bought Minmetal Land, China Shineway and Hidili

5. Spore Equities- 3185 from 3246 last week from 3261 the previous week.
Bought OUE, First Resources and Guthrie. ( Indonesian Risks increased ).

6. US Equities - 1283 from 1293 last week from 1272 the previous week. Stocks are climbing on lousy Revenues, which means that there's strong Liquidity in the US market.

7. Japan Equities - 10275 from 10499 last week from 10541 the previous week. Range Low is around 8800. JPY at 82.565. 52 week range is 80.335 - 94.985.

8. Emerging Markets - Inflows still continuing ? No data recently.

9. Iran - The recent meeting was a disappointment but I dont think they would be taking out Iran since they can now deploy those "cyber-viruses".

10. USD - 78.12 from 79.37 last week from 81.46 the previous week. Risky trades are on again ? Or is it because they been covering their EUR shorts ?

11. Properties - various programs to curb prices in HK, China and Singapore. Shanghai will now be coming out with a new Property Tax.

12. January Effect - not that significant and will probably be over soon.

13. Liquidity - Weaker. HKD7.7904 from HKD 7.7743 last week from HKD 7.7723 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.750-7.807; HSI ADT has decreased to HK$77.08 per day from HK$81.3b last week..

14. Sentiment - Weaker especially in China, HK and Japan.

15. Economy - improving slowly in the Developed Markets and slowing down slowly in the Emerging Markets.

16. Market Direction - Flattish with a negative bias. Catalysts from US Earnings. Headwinds include poor US jobs data, European Contagion, Chinese & India tightening and high price of Commodities, especially Oil.


I'm starting to worry again. Am I worrying because I was taking on more risks just when the market is correcting ? Am I worrying because things cant get better than this ?


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


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[winston]

TOL as of January 30, 2011:-


What's your Exit Strategy ?


The Nikkei was down 1.1% on Friday. The S&P was down 1.8%. Oil spiked about US$4 while Gold also spiked about US$20.

Are you afraid yet ? No, then let me also tell you that the Saudi Market also dropped 6.4% on Saturday and Emerging Markets are experiencing their biggest outflow since mid-2008.

So are you afraid now ? As you think about your Exit Strategy, let's look at the weekly data.


The week in review:-

1. Oil - US$89.49 from US$ 89.10 last week from US$91.67 the previous week. Oil spiked US$3.85 because the traders were afraid that the Suez Canal may be closed

2. Gold - US$1338 from US$1341 last week from US$1360 the previous week. Gold spiked US$20 because some traders were calling for a Middle East Contagion . Anyway, the drop in gold prices over the past few weeks is good for sales in China before Chinese New Year. And if gold dropped further, I'm sure that the Chinese would be exchanging some of their USD for gold and shipping them back.

3. Shanghai Equities - 2753 from 2716 last week from 2791 the previous week. Support at 2580 now ? SSE would probably be not so strong going into the week-long CNY holidays. When the SSE is close for their one week holiday. I may buy the CSI 300 ETF traded in HK. The only thing holding me back, is the potential of an interest rate increase in China and the downdraft in the US markets.

4. HK Equities - 23617 from 23877 last week from 24283 the previous week.
Sold China Vanadium, 1/2 Hidili, Xiwang Sugar and SJM. Bought Rexlot.

5. Spore Equities- 3230 from 3185 last week from 3246 the previous week. No trade

6. US Equities - 1276 from 1283 last week from 1293 the previous week. Waiting for the "M" to form. Support: at 1270 ? Resistance at 1300 ? Need to look for a good time to sell those S&P Short ETFs.

7. Japan Equities - 10360 from 10275 last week from 10499 the previous week. Range Low is around 8800. JPY @ 82.145 from 82.565 last week. The 52 week range is 80.335 to 94.985. When is the high JPY going to hurt their stock-market ?

8. Emerging Markets - Biggest weekly outflows since mid-2008

9. Iran - Will the situation in Tunisia and Egypt affect Iran ?

10. USD - 78.28 from 78.12 last week from 79.37 the previous week. The USD should spike up if there's a collapse in Equities and Commodities.

11. Properties - Various programs to curb prices in HK, China and Singapore. If you dare to speculate on properties now, you are either very smart or very foolish.

12. Liquidity - Weaker. HKD @ 7.7924 from HKD7.7904 last week from HKD 7.7743 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.750-7.807; HSI ADT also decreased to HK$ 65.32b from HK$77.08b last week from HK$81.3b the previous weak.

13. Sentiment - Weaker

14. Economy - So what if things are improving slowly in the Developed Markets ?

15. Market Direction - Negative. Headwinds include Unempoyment in the DM, European Contagion, Chinese & India tightening, high price of Commodities esp. Oil and now, food inflation and possible Middle East Contagion. Tailwinds include QE2 and US Earnings.


So is this the drop that you have been waiting patiently for ? If that's the case, I think you would be quite disappointed as there's no real reason for the drop. Egypt cant be the reason as Egypt does not put any fear into the heart of the traders.

I think people would be buying on the dip later. The market will will then form the first part of a "M". That's the time that I would be more careful as it would look for the next reason to drop.

If I want to sell, I would be selling at the top of that "M". If not, I will wait for a "Triple Top" first. I dont think the conditions are there yet for a sharp correction but who am I to argue with the market if it wants to really crash ?


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


Please Note:-

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Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

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[winston]

TOL as of Febuary 06, 2011:-


Happy Year of the Rabbit !

Nothing like a trading break of 2.5 days to put my life back in perspective.

I was lost for a few days and my routine was disrupted. I had no more meaning to life.

I realized that the boats, the driving range, the walks etc. did not drive my juices as much as the markets.

Luckily, we are now at the end of the week-end and tomorrow, I can get my life back again


The week in review:-

1. Oil - US$89.12 from US$89.49 last week from US$ 89.10 the previous week. Oil has not really gone up a lot despite the riots in Egypt

2. Gold - US$1349 from US$1338 last week from US$1341 the previous week.
The Chinese buying will probably stabilize the price of gold from here.

3. Shanghai Equities - 2799 from 2753 last week from 2716 the previous week. I'm thinking of buying the CSI 300 ETF before the SSE reopens on Wednesday. However, the potential for a rate hike and a downdraft in the US markets, is making me think twice

4. HK Equities - 23909 from 23617 last week from 23877 the previous week.
Sold Rexlot.

5. Spore Equities- 3211 from 3230 last week from 3185 the previous week. No trade
.
6. US Equities - 1311 from 1276 last wek from 1283 the previous week. Resistance at 1313 then 1325 ?

7. Japan Equities - 10544 from 10360 last week from 10275 the previous week. Range Low is around 8800. JPY @ 82.205 from 82.145 last week from 82.565 the previous week. The 52 week range is 80.335 to 94.985. When will the high JPY hurt their market ?

8. Emerging Markets - Disturbing trend. Outflows continuing from EM to DM. Outflows totaled $7.2 billion, the most since January 2008.

9. Middle East- Can your portfolio withstand the worst-case scenario ?

10. USD - 78.28 from 78.12 last week from 79.37 the previous week.

11. Properties - Various programs to curb prices in HK, China and Singapore. A 5% drop on a Sin1m property is Sin$50,000. And will it be 5% only ? That's just the bid/ask gap

12. Liquidity - Stronger. HKD @ 7.7873 from 7.7924 last week from HKD7.7904 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.750-7.807; HSI ADT has increased slightly to HK$66.1 from HK$ 65.32b last week from HK$77.08b the previous weak. However, this is a short trading week so we may not be comparing apples with apples.

13. Sentiment - Better than last week

14. Economy - Another sign that the US economy is getting better, is that US Commercial Properties are rising in price. This is in contrast with what the "experts" were calling for ie. a meltdown.

15. Risk Management - Can your portfolio withstand a "Splash Crash" ?

16. Market Direction - Positive. Headwinds include poor US jobs data, European Contagion, Chinese tightening, high price of Commodities, especially Oil.


As mentioned last week, I was expecting a technical rebound. And now that we got that rebound, the first part of the "M", where do we go from here ?

Do we try to raise some cash ? Do we sell the laggards ? Do we buy more USD ? Do we buy more gold ? Do we buy some Puts ? Do we buy some short ETF ? Or do we try to go through any down-draft and hope for a "Triple-Top" ?

And finally, what happens if we are wrong and this rally does have legs ?


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


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[iam802]

Looking at Winston's signature, I think it is fair that he is reminding us to be careful moving forward.

We have resistance ahead on various indices. Europe have not resolve all its issue. It is being overshadowed by Egypt currently.

I was looking at the $SPX chart earlier, and felt that the momentum is weakening. The rise is not as sharp and with the Tenkan sen and Kijun sen (2 moving averages) moving closer to each other.

This, to me, is a sign of consolidation or the weakening of the momentum.

And when 2 moving averages are close to each other, it is easy for them to cross each other paths. In this case, a bearish cross can be easily developed.

[winston]

TOL as of Febuary 13, 2011:-


Focus on value because most investors focus on outlooks and trends


Whenever I do not know what to do, I would like to remind myself of the above quote from Sir John Templeton. It never fails to point me to the right Direction.

I have a lot of respect for Sir John Templeton and I actually attended one of his AGMs about 14 years ago. If you like to read more on Sir John Templeton, there's a thread on him, located in the "Market Gurus" section.

Anyway, with the lemmings scurrying from the Emerging Markets now, the above quote is very useful:-
1) Should you cut your losses now or should you be waiting to buy on the dip ?
2) Are you going to be throwing out the baby with the bath or are you going to be averaging down on your best stories ?

While we think of the above questions, let's review what happened this week.


The week in review:-

1. Oil - US$85.28 from US$89.12 last week from US$89.49 the previous week. Waiting for a good entry point.

2. Gold - US$1357 from US$1349 last week from US$1338 the previous week. China will be buying on any dips. They need to convert their USD into something else.

3. Shanghai Equities - 2828 from 2799 last week from 2753 the previous week. Added to the CSI 300 ETF listed in HK.

4. HK Equities - 22829 from 23909 last week from 23617 the previous week. Bought Boshiwa and SJM.

5. Spore Equities- 3077 from 3211 last week from 3230 the previous week.
Bought Sri Trang

6. US Equities - 1329 from 1311 last week from 1276 the previous week. Resistance at 1313 and 1325 have been taken up. Now what ?

7. Japan Equities - 10605 from 10544 last week from 10360 the previous week. Range Low is around 8800. JPY @ 83.425 from 82.205 last week from 82.145 the previous week. The 52 week range is 80.335 to 94.985. When will the high JPY hurt their stock market ?

8. Emerging Markets - The funds flow were evident by the weak HKD and high ADT in HK. An additional US$3b is being pulled out compared to US$7m last week.
Anyway, I think the fund managers will now differentiate among the countries in the Emerging Markets. They may pull out money from countries that have risen a lot last year eg. Indonesia and less from countries that did not do so well eg. China.

9. Middle East- Is Algeria and Yemen next on the list ? More importantly, what do they have in Algeria and Yemen that can affect your portfolio ? At least Egypt has the Suez Canal.

10. USD - 78.51 from 78.28 last week from 78.12 the previous week. If the USD spikes up, would it also hurt Commodities ?

11. Properties - Various programs to curb prices in HK, China and Singapore. Can your property investment withstand some negative news, every few weeks ? How would the current AHINI episode affect the HK property market ?

12. Liquidity - Weaker. HKD @ 7.7959 from 7.7873 last week from 7.7924 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.750-7.807; HSI ADT has increased a lot to HK$83b from HK$66 last week from HK$ 65.32b the previous weak. Market was dropping on high volume.

13. Sentiment - Weaker than last week. However, Mubarak's resignation may help to improve things next week.

14.US Economy - Supposedly getting better but markets have already doubled

15. Risk Management - If you are not sleeping well, you may want to reduce your exposure to Equities.

16. Market Direction - Negative for the Asian markets. Headwinds include high US Unemployment, European Contagion, Chinese tightening, Middle East Contagion and High Commodities especially Oil.


About 2 weeks ago, I was expecting a "M". Now that we got our "M", where do we go from here ?

In the EM, people are worried that the funds are flowing back to the DM and would hit their portfolio. As far as I'm concerned, I will go back to Sir John's quote above ie. "Focus on Value":
1) If I'm sitting on Value, then I will probably wait for a good time to average down
2) If I'm sitting on a Swing Position, I will probably cut my position

By the way, the fund flows can also reverse very quickly, as seen during the time when they announced QE2. During that time, the lemmings were scurrying into the Emerging Markets and after two weeks, everything was over.

Going forward, I will bet on a technical rebound next week as there's no fear in the air and the Egypt situation has improved. So we may eventually get a "Triple Top".

I'm actually not worried that the drop in the Emerging Markets but am worried about the US markets as they are too extended.


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Febuary 20, 2011:-


Risk Management


As the markets are getting very volatile, I have gone back to review the Zurich Axioms:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=3456&start=0

The following from Axiom 2, hit me squarely on the head:
1) Since you cant see the peak, assume that it's close than far
2) Dont hope for winning streaks to go on and on. Dont stretch your luck

In view of the above, I've taken advantage of this week's rally, to reduce some of my existing positions.


The week in review:-

1. Oil - US$86.15 from US$85.28 last week from US$89.12 the previous week. Winter will be over soon, summer driving is far way and inventories are supposedly very high. In addition, oil did not really spike on the Middle East unrest, a sign of weakness

2. Gold - US$1388 from US$1357 last week from US$1349 the previous week. Whenever there's a dip, the EMs will buy, especially the Chinese

3. Other Commodities - Sugar & Cotton peaking ?

4. Shanghai Equities - 2900 from 2828 last week from 2799 the previous week. As expected, we got the RRR hike yesterday. Resistance at 2930, 3015 and 3150 ? Sold CSI300 ETF ( 3049 ) listed in HK

5. HK Equities - 23595 from 22829 last week from 23909 the previous week. The HSI has gone up 870 points since the parrots on CNBC were asking you to sell because of the outflows from EM .
Sold SJM, Asia Cassava & China Shineway into the rally

6. Spore Equities-3087 from 3077 last week from 3211 the previous week. No trade

7. US Equities- 1343 from 1329 last week from 1311 the previous week. Resistance at 12,400 for the Dow and 1350 for the S&P ? Can the 3-week rally really continue?

8. Japan Equities - 10843 from 10605 last week from 10544 the previous week. Range Low is around 8800. Resistance at 11,000 ? JPY @ 83.19 from 83.425 last week from 82.205 the previous week. The 52 week range is 80.335 to 94.985.

9. Emerging Markets - Outflows increase from US$3b to US$5.5b this week.

10. Middle East Contagion - Problems in Libya, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Algeria, Oman, Kuwait and Yemen. And it has even spread to Bolivia in Latin America.

11. Europe - EUR @ 1.3698. Still strong. Ireland goes to the polls on Feb. 25. Germany's seven state elections, starts with Hamburg on Feb. 20.

12. USD - Weaker. 77.66 from 78.51 last week from 78.28 the previous week.

13. Properties - Continuos stream of negative newsflow in HK, China and Singapore

14. Liquidity - Stronger. HKD @ 7.7848 from 7.7959 last week from 7.7873 & 7.7924. 52-week range is 7.750-7.807; HSI ADT has decreased to HK$73b from HK$83b from HK$66 the previous weak.

15. Sentiment - Slightly better than last week. Rebound in EM and US rally

16. Economy - The US market has doubled from 666. Has the US economy also doubled ?

17. Risk Management - Can a Stop Loss protect you ?

18. Asset Allocation: Equities 33%; Gold 7%; Short ETF 2%

19. Market Direction - Better for the Asian markets this week. Headwinds include high US Unemployment, European Contagion, Chinese tightening, Middle East / African Contagion, and High price of Commodities, especially Oil.

The parrots are saying that the outflows will continue for a few more quarters. Is that going to be that big a deal and how do we put a number around it and also estimate it's probability ? Maybe we can compare those outflows with the ADT in HK.

The ADT in HK is about US$45b a week. So what if HK$5.5b flow out of the EM ? That's just a half-day of turnover in HK. Therefore, it's not really that big a deal unless it escalate into something much bigger.

And if the money is really flowing back to the DM, why is the volume on the US market so low this week ?


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Febuary 27, 2011:-


Be Nimble


I'm reminding myself that this is a Trader's Market and I will have to behave accordingly.

If the lemmings wants to buy, then I should be buying some Bull Call Warrants with them.

If the lemmings wants to sell, then I should be buying some Bear Put Warrants with them.

However, it's very difficult to switch from being a Bear to a Bull in a matter of minutes but that may be the requirement here. Either I play this way or I sit on the sidelines.

And if I really want to play, I better make sure that I have a Stop on those Bull or Bear Warrants, as the leverage on them is about 20 times.


The week in review:-

1. Oil - US$98.23 from US$86.15 last week from US$85.28 the previous week. Do you dare to buy at this price ?

2. Gold - US$1409 from US$1388 last week from US$1357 the previous week. Slow steady climb again.

3. Other Commodities - Cotton and Sugar peaking ?

4. Shanghai Equities - 2879 from 2900 last week from 2828 the previous week. Whn is the next RRR or interest rate hike ? Resistance at 2930 & 3015 ? Support at 2775 & 2675 ?

5. HK Equities - 23012 from 23595 last week from 22829 the previous week. The shorts were caught by the +400 points rise yesterday. No trade.

6. Spore Equities- 3025 from 3087 last week from 3077 the previous week. Added to C&O Pharma.

7. US Equities- 1320 from 1343 last week from 1329 the previous week. Resistance at 1350 ? Support at 1275 and then 1235 ? No fear yet.

8. Japan Equities - 10527 from 10843 last week from 10605 the previous week. Range Low is around 8800. Resistance at 11,000 ?

9. JPY: 81.66 from 83.19 last week from 83.425 the previous week. The 52 week range is 80.335 to 94.985. When will the strong Yen affect the Nikkei ?

10. Emerging Markets - Supposedly, more Outflows but I've not seen the data

11. Middle East Contagion - Accepted that Libya will collapse but I dont think that Saudi will collapse

12. Europe - EUR @ 1.375 from 1.3698 last week. Still strong. No more European Contagion ?

13. USD - Weaker. 77.27 from 77.66 last week from 78.51 the previous week.

14. Properties - Have you checked the bid on your investment property lately ?

15. Liquidity - Weaker. HKD @ 7.7934 from 7.7848 last week from 7.7959 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.750-7.807; HSI ADT has decreased to HK$68b from HK$73b last week from HK$83b the previous weak.

16. Sentiment - Slightly better on Friday but generally weaker than last week.

17. Economy - How will the cutbacks by the European and US governments, affect the recovery ?

18. Risk Management - Better to be more cautious in times like this

19. Market Direction - Negative. Is the rally on Friday a change in direction or a just a technical rebound ?

I dont know where things are heading but I have already sold off all of my Swing trades. However, I still have some Position trades. And if these trades do go up unexpectedly, I will also probably reduce them as well.

On the other hand, if they do go down more than my expectation, I may also average down, depending on the situation, as I'm still expecting only a correction and not a crash.

In the meantime, I may be trading some Bulls and Bear Warrants to capitalize on the volatility. It's easier said than done though. For the whole of last week, I did not manage to take any position as it was too volatile for my comfort.


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.

Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of March 06, 2011:-


Volatility


If you have been spooked by this week's market volatility, I think that you are not alone. I think that both the big boys and the small fries have all been affected.

Everyone is probably longing for the good old days, where the market goes in one direction, whether up or down, so that they can trade accordingly.

However, that's not the case now and I'm reminding myself to either trade or if I'm afraid of the volatility, then raise cash and stand aside.



The week in review:-

1. Oil - US$104.31 from US$98.23 last week from US$86.15 the previous week. Currently at a 29 year high. A TA expert mentioned on CNBC that if Oil breached US$103, the next stop would be US$147. So are you buying ?

2. Gold - US$1430 from US$1409 last week from US$1388 the previous week. Silver at 31 year high.

3. Other Commodities - Cotton at all time high; Cocoa at 32 year high;

4. Shanghai Equities - 2942 from 2879 last week from 2900 the previous week. When is the next RRR or interest rate hike ? Resistance at 3015 ? Support at 2775 & 2675 ? Will there be any surprises from their Planning Meeting ?

5. HK Equities - 23409 from 23012 last week from 23595 the previous week. Bought Rexlot. Sold Boshiwa.

6. Spore Equities- 3061 from 3025 last week from 3087 the previous week.
Sold half C&O Pharma.

7. US Equities- 1321 from 1320 last week from 1343 the previous week. Resistance at 1350 ? Support at 1275 and then 1235 ? Is high Oil prices, a big enough fear ?

8. Japan Equities - 10694 from 10527 last week from 10843 the previous week. Range Low is around 8800. Resistance at 11,000 ? JPY @ 81.66 from 83.19 last week from 83.425 the previous week. The 52 week range is 80.335 to 94.985. When will the strong Yen affect the Nikkei ?

9. Emerging Markets - Outflows of US$2.5b in the week ended March 2. So far this year, outflows of more than US$21b.

10. Middle East Contagion - Planned protests in Saudi on March 11 & March 20. Probably, a non-event as they are not demanding a regime change

11. Europe - EUR @ 1.3986 from 1.375 last week from 1.3698 the previous week. Very strong and where are those parrots calling for parity ? No more European Contagion ?

12. USD - Weaker. 76.40 from 77.27 last week from 77.66 the previous week. If people are not flocking to the USD during a Crisis, when would they be flocking there ?

13. Properties - Do you know why you are investing in an investment property now ?

14. Liquidity - Stronger. HKD @ 7.7864 from 7.7934 last week from 7.7848 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.750-7.807; HSI ADT has increased to HK$76b from HK$68b last week from HK$73b the previous weak.

15. Sentiment - Slightly better but still cautious.

16. Economy - It has been said that stockmarkets lead the economy by 6-9 months. And right now, they are predicting a better economy.

17. Risk Management - Can you sleep at night ? Can your stomach take the volatility ?

18. Market Direction - Negative.

I think people are currently selling into the rallies instead of buying the dips.

So how long would this continue ?

And where would those cash be deployed later ?



The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.

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