Winston's Investment Ideas 02 (Apr 10 - Jul 12)

[winston]

TOL on Aug 15, 2010:-


Trading Break - Week Two


Now that the market has corrected a bit, it's time to see what are the special situations out there.

I need to also remind myself to look only for stocks with strong catalysts, which can go against any downdraft.

Sentiments have been hurt and it may take a while for confidence to return. And normally, it takes two or three strong days for any reversal to occur.

Wonder how many momentum players got hurt this round ? Even if they were stopped at 8%, it's still a big loss, as nowadays, the short-term profits are generally only in the range of 3% to 4% only ...


The week in review:-

1) Oil - US$75.39 from US$80.7 last week. Dropping despite Hurricane season and Iran ?

2) Gold - US$1215 from US$1203 last week. Going up because Helicopter Ben is planning to take off soon ? Or John Paulson has decided not to continue selling ?

3) Other Commodities - Waiting for the 50% retracement. A very long wait ..

4) Shanghai Equities - 2607 from 2658 last week. Support at 2350 ?

5) HK Equities - 21072 from 21679 last week. Support at 21000 then 20000 ? What are the catalysts ? Li Ka Shing buying ? ; No trade

6) Spore Equities - 2940 from 2996 last week. Has the GE rally come and gone ? No trade.

7) US Equities - 1079 from 1121 last week. Earnings season is winding down. Would be the next catalyst ? Helicopter Ben throwing money around ? And isn't the reason why Helicopter Ben is throwing money around, is that the US economy is very weak ?

8) Japan Equities - 9253 from 9642 last week. Support at 9200 then 9050 ? Double whammy for the exporters ie. high yen and slow economies. Japan is now at the low end of the trading range but why would I want to buy Japan at this point in time ?

9) Emerging Markets - Inflow or Outflow ? When the money leaves, that sucking sound will be very frightening ...

10) Iran - What happened to the sanction ?

11) USD - 83.04 from 80.36 last week. Fear coming back ?

12) HK Real Estate - Downpayment increased from 30% to 40%


It's difficult not to be overwhemed by the Dr. Dooms and the Dr. Deaths out there. There's so much to worry about, from Iran to North Korea to Double Dip to European Contagion to Slowdown in China etc.

However, it's in time like this that you need to be a bit more positive and to continue the search, for stocks with strong catalysts.

It's still my belief that it's a Trading Market and that we are not spiralling downwards. Therefore, it may be a good time to clean up the watchlist and continue the search for good stocks with strong catalysts that are trading at a fair valuation.


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.



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[winston]

TOL on Aug 22, 2010:-


Shopping Again


After a two weeks trading break, I went shopping again this week

Hopefully, I bought at the lower end of the Trading Range and that my counters have a strong enough catalyst, to go against any downdraft.

I still think that we are in a Trading Range and this could last for a while more...

People are cautious, the Economic Data are not encouraging but there is plenty of Cash on the sidelines. In times like this, I think that it's still safe to trade, as long as my counter has a good story ..... I hope


The week in review:-

1) Oil - US$73.82 from US$75.39 last week. Waiting for a Hurricane or something to happen in Iran ?

2) Gold - US$1227 from US$1215 last week. The TA "experts" feel that the path of least resistance is downwards

3) Other Commodities - Waiting for the 50% retracement ...

4) Shanghai Equities - 2642 from 2607 from last week. Was the strength in the SSE due to the perceived inflow of insurance money, resulting from the latest change in the insurance regulation ? And how big would be that inflow ?

5) HK Equities - 20982 from 21072 last week. Support at 21000 breached. Next Strong Support at 20000. Initiated positions in China High Speed, Ausnutria, China Shineway and Chaoda. Sold Real Gold.

6) Spore Equities - 2936 from 2940 last week. No trade.

7) US Equities - 1072 from 1079 last week. Earnings season is winding down but is QE2 on it's way ?

8) Japan Equities - 9179 from 9253 last week. Support at 9200 taken out. Next Stop at 9050 ? How low can it go ? And how high can it bounce ? Can they really control the Yen ?

9) Emerging Markets - Mark Mobius is busily asking you to invest in EMs

10) Iran - What are the consequences of opening that nuclear reactor yesterday ?

11) USD - 83.07 from 83.04 last week. It's interesting to see the Chinese increasing their holdings in the Yen and especially the Korean Won, at the expense of the USD.

12) HK Property - Will they actually curb non-residents from buying a property in HK ? And if that's true, would other copy-cats follow ?

13) Hedge Funds- It's interesting to see that two "gurus", Stanley Druckenmiller and Paolo Pellegrini, will be returning money to their investors due to poor performance. And how widespread is this problem ? Wonder how was the latest redemption on Aug 15th for the October 1st withdrawal ? And if the gurus are losing money in this type of market, what do you think would be your performance ?

14) Asset Allocation - My Equities exposure is only around 21% with 6% in Gold and 1% in Inverse ETF. A conservative stance until I have some more clarity on where things are heading. Intuitively, I think that things would continue to drip downwards over the next year unless the machines want to play some games out there.


It's also interesting that Mr. Motivation, Tony Robbins, has recently come out with a new video and calling for the end of the world. If Mr. Positive Tony Robbins, is also calling for the end of the world, who is out there left to sell ? Or would it trigger one final gap downwards before things go upwards from here ?


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


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[winston]

TOL on Aug 29, 2010:-


Trading Market ?


The market has been weak for a few weeks. And it's not easy being a "Bull". But it was also not easy being a "Bear" either, as the market was only dripping downwards.

So where do we go from here ? Are things that cheap now that the cash on the sidelines would return to the market ? Are things that cheap now that there would be more M&A activities ? Are things that cheap now that the shorts may want to cover and pocket some profits ?

Or would things detiorate further from here ? Would there really be a double dip ? Have the governments really run out of bullets ? Would the machines be playing the short side now ?

The above are some questions that has been running through my head over the past few weeks. Intuitively, I think that it's still a trading market. And as long as my counter has a strong catalyst that go against market direction, I should be quite safe.

Having said that, I'm now more cautious. I'm aware that I could be wrong and this may not be a trading market but actually the start of a bear market. Or the trading bands of the Trading Market may have widened considerably



The week in review:-

1) Oil - US$75.17 from US$73.82 last week. Risk trade back? No Hurricane yet

2) Gold - US$1236 from US$1227 last week. Are the TA "experts" correct that the path of least resistance is downwards ?

3) Shanghai Equities - 2611 from 2642 from last week. Do you still want to buy after the strong rebound ?

4) HK Equities - 20597 from 20982 last week. Support at 21000 breached. Next Support at 20500 and then 20,000. Bought Chaoda, Minmetal Land, China Corn Oil, China Shineway and China High Speed. Sold Real Gold.

5) Spore Equities - 2939 from 2936 last week. No GE rally ? No trade

6) US Equities - 1065 from 1072 last week. No QE2 ?

7) Japan Equities - 8991 from 9179 last week. Support at 9050 taken out. Next Stop at 8500 ? How would the leadership challange affect the Yen ?

8) Emerging Markets - Decoupling ?

9) Iran - What is the effect on the sanction ?

10) USD - 82.78 from 83.07 last week. I think the Chinese are diversifying away from the USD into the Asian currencies eg. Korean Won.

11) Chinese Property - It's interesting to hear the "experts" predicting that Chinese Properties in the first-tier cities, will drop by 15% by the end of the year. I'm not a Property expert but I think that the 15% number sounds a bit too big. Transactions have slowed and that means that the sellers need not sell if the price is not good. I think they can still hold for a long time...


As the markets become weaker, the Dr. Dooms and the Dr. Deaths are starting to have more air-time on TV and on the internet. These guys can only see the half-empty part of the glass.

In times like this, you need to also look at the half-full part of the glass. Did you see the hundreds of millions in China, India, Brazil and the other SE Asian countries beoming middle class ? Did you see how e-commerce is taking off in China due to their low cost of delivering goods ?

Did you see how full the planes were, when you were travelling ? Did you see how hotel rates have gone up ? Did you see how full the restaurants were, when you went out to eat ?

Kick the tires more and you would realize that things are not really that bad after all in Asia, at least for the time being


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.

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[winston]

TOL on Sep 05, 2010:-


Bull Market Again ?


Now that we got some confirmation that the bears maybe in hibernation temporarily, what are you going to do ?

Are you going to be buying now since there's now confirmation of a rebound ? Or are you going to be buying on the next dip ? Or are you going to be selling into the rally hoping for a Double Dip later ?

The above are some questions going through my mind now and the following are my decision:-
1) manage risk accordingly ie. 30% maximum exposure on Equities at this point in time
2) it's still ok to buy, as long as there's a strong catalyst that can go against market direction. If there's no catalyst, I may have to skip eventhough the price is fair.
3) it's a bit dangerous to short unless there's clear visibility that the company will be doing very badly in the future
4) be patient and wait for the stars to be aligned properly first. If I have to wait for two years then so be it. After the Asian Financial Crisis< i waited for about two years before getting back into the market again ..


The week in review:-

1) Oil - US$74.60 from US$75.17 last week. No Hurricane yet.

2) Gold - US$1249 from US$1236 last week. Getting stronger. Didn't those TA "experts" say that the path of least resistance is downwards ?

3) Shanghai Equities - 2655 from 2611 from last week. Do you dare to buy before the long October week-end ?

4) HK Equities - 20972 from 20597 last week. Looks like the support is around 20500 and then 20,000. Sold 1/3 Chaoda, China Corn Oil, China Shineway and China High Speed. Earnings reporting is almost over and I dont see a lot of catalysts going forward. The long October week-end is also a concern.

5) Spore Equities - 3003 from 2939 last week. No trade.

6) US Equities - 1105 from 1065 last week. It's not easy being a short

7) Japan Equities - 9114 from 8991 last week. Support at around 8800 ? Where's the Yen heading ?

8) Emerging Markets - Decoupling ? Mutual fund investors poured US$35b into emerging markets this year while they pulled US$28 b from the U.S., Europe and Japan,

9) Iran - What is the effect on the sanction ?

10) USD - 82.02 from 82.78 last week.


I still think that this is a Trading Market and I will still be trading whenever the opportunity presents itself.

At the same time, I'm also aware that there could be a breakout, on either the upside or downside so I have to be also prepared for that breakout.

Therefore, it's timely to remind myself of the following famous saying:-
"Bulls & Bears make money. It's the Pigs that get slaughtered".


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Active Topics: Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL on Sep 12, 2010:-


Waiting for the Breakout


It has been a boring and unproductive week. Despite my hardwork, there were no investment ideas that I could latched on.

Earnings season is over and we are going back to watching the Economic Datas. And on that front, I dont really like what I see despite the recent good numbers from Japan, India and the US.

The TA "experts" are now talking about a breakout. And if it breaks out on the Downside, I may buy some Inverse ETF immediately. If it breaks out on the Upside, I will probably wait for the rally to exhaust itself before buying some Inverse ETF.

I'm also mindul that there's a lot of pessimism in the air and therefore, the market could rally with the help of the machines and short-coverings.

Therefore, I'm reminding myself to stay flexible and react at that point in time, including trading against my own emotions.


The week in review:-

1) Oil - US$76.45 from US$74.60 last week. No Hurricane this season ?

2) Gold - US$1245 from US$1249 last week. Still quite strong

3) Shanghai Equities - 2663 from 2655 last week. Do you dare to buy before the long October week-end ?

4) HK Equities - 21257 from 20972 last week. Sold 1/2 Minmetal Land. Cant see any catalysts and the long October week-end is also a concern.

5) Spore Equities - 3022 from 3003 last week. When is the GE ? No trade.

6) US Equities - 1110 from 1105 last week. Breakout next week ?

7) Japan Equities - 9239 from 9114 last week. How will the election on Tuesday affect things ? The US$11b stimulus program is pathetic.

8) Emerging Markets - Decoupling ? A lot of inflows.

9) Iran - No news on the effect of the sanction. Non-event ?

10) USD - 82.70 from 82.02 last week. Nourel Roubini likes the USD instead of Gold.

11) Properties - various programs to curb prices in HK, China and Singapore


I'm still expecting the economies in the developed countries to be weak for another 1.5 years. However, weak economies does not really mean weak stock markets, as Liquidity and Sentiment are also at play, besides Earnings.

If the economies of the developed markets are not going to be that hot, the exports from the emerging markets are not going to be that hot either. Therefore, we will have to rely on Domestic Consumption to replace some of those slack. And is Domestic Consumption adequate enough to replace some of those slack ?

However, for Emerging markets, the more important question is whether the Inflows are going to continue. If they are, then the stock markets of the Emerging Markets would continue to do well. If not, it will correct steeply.

And what may trigger that Outflow? Profit taking? Risk aversion? Boomers retiring? Corporate governance? High valuations compared to Developed Markets ?

So while I'm focussing on the Earnings of the individual companies, I've to constantly remind myself to also watch the bigger picture, which includes Sentiment and Liquidity.


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

[helios]

OK. 1.5 years more to go ...

[winston]

OK. 1.5 years more to go ...

Ha Ha ... or longer. It has been 20 years in Japan already ...

[winston]

TOL on Sep 19, 2010:-


Window Dressing Time


It has been another boring and unproductive week.

Maybe next week, things will be more lively. It's Window Dressing time and after that, a new month where there would be new inflows.

Therefore, it may be safe to take some positions as I dont expect the markets to have a sharp correction during Window Dressing time.

Having said that, I just noticed that all the "Fast Traders" on CNBC are expecting a sell-off so it's probably safe to have a long position over the next two weeks


The week in review:-

1) Oil - US$73.66 from US$76.45 last week. No Hurricane this season ?

2) Gold - US$1276 from US$1245 last week. Pessimism in the air.

3) Shanghai Equities - 2599 from 2663 last week. SSE will be close from Wednesday to Friday next week. Only the brave will have a big position over long holidays.

4) HK Equities - 21971 from 21257 last week. Bought back Minmetal Land. Sold Chaoda. Cant see any strong catalysts and the two long holidays is a concern.

5) Spore Equities - 3076 from 3022 last week. When is the GE ? Sold Trek.

6) US Equities - 1126 from 1110 last week. FOMC meeting next Tuesday but I think it will be a non-event. I'm expecting Window Dressing to take centre stage instead.

7) Japan Equities - 9626 from 9239 last week. The currency traders is waiting to go long on the Yen and the Japanese tax-payers will pay again for the adventures of their bureaucrats. No wonder they have lost two decades ...

8) Emerging Markets - A lot of inflows.

9) Iran - Are they self-sufficient in petrol already ? ( Petrol is one of the commodities targetted in the sanction). I dont think so but because of the porous region, there's probably a lot of smuggling going on. With the Palestinian issue on the table now, maybe Israel will not attack them for the time being.

10) USD - 81.65 from 82.70 last week. Risk trades on the table again ?

11) Properties - various programs to curb prices in HK, China and Singapore will probably not stop until there's a significant correction.


At this point, I'm only 15% invested in Equities. And if the market does take off during Window Dressing time, I'm then too under-weighted Equities.

Therefore, I may have to increase my Equities exposure very quickly if I'm to ride on the Window Dressing rally.

However, I dont have any good ideas to latch on at this point in time and since earnings season is over, I cant see any strong catalysts out there.

Therefore, I may have to bet bigger next week whenever I see any opportunity ....


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Active Topics: Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page

[winston]

TOL on Sep 26, 2010:-


Breaking Out


After two weeks, the markets are starting to break out. It's not unexpected as it's Window Dressing time again.

Anyway, all the TA "experts" have "seen" this breakout about two weeks ago, They also mentioned that if the S&P can break-out of 1140, it will be on it's way to 1180.

Under such situation, I think that it would be quite safe to have a long position for at least another week. Thereafter, there could also be new inflows for the new month.

However, I'm also very wary of things that are very obvious. If every TA "experts" were able to see this break-out, who is left to buy, besides those Fund Managers who are trying to window-dress ?


The week in review:-

1) Oil - US$76.49 from US$73.66 last week. No Hurricane this season ?

2) Gold - US$1296 from US$1276 last week. On fire.

3) Shanghai Equities - 2592 from 2599 last week. Long October holidays coming up.

4) HK Equities - 22119 from 21971 last week. Sold 1/2 Minmetal Land. Bought Rexlot. Volume has been increasing and the IPO market has been very hot too.

5) Spore Equities - 3093 from 3076 last week. Where is the GE rally ? No Trade.

6) US Equities - 1148 from 1126 last week. Did it breakout convincingly ?

7) Japan Equities - 9472 from 9626 last week. Traders are waiting to long the Yen. So it may not be a good idea to long Japan right now.

8) Emerging Markets - A lot of inflows. The dear can become dearer.

9) Iran - Non-event ?

10) USD - 79.48 from 81.65 last week. Support of 80 broken.

11) Properties - Ongoing programs to curb prices in HK, China and Singapore


October is normally a very weak month and I may want to short the market around the first week of October. However, it will depends on the situation at that time.

If they really unleash QE2 or hint that they would be doing so, the lemmings may try to front-run each other.

I'm still aware that I may be under-weight the market at 16% Equities. However, I have not been able to dig up any solid idea since the end of earnings season. I just have to continue moving on and to show up for the game

One consolation is that the gold coins that I have bought more than a decade back, have already gone up > 3 times. Who says that "Buy & Hold" does not work ?


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Active Topics: Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of October 3, 2010:-


Time for Reflection ( Again )

Tomorrow is my birthday ! So it's time to do an AAR ( After Action Review ) again:-
1) What have I been doing right over the past year and should continue to do ?
2) What did I do wrong over the past year and should try to improve upon ?

And as one gets older, one also tend to reflect upon whether this has been a productive life. Are there any more goals to reach ? Are they any more things to contribute ? Are there any more new things to learn ? What should one do in one's Second Half ? etc.

And as I reflect upon the above, it's back to my passion for speculating ...


The week in review:-

1) Oil - US$81.73 from US$76.49 last week. Unable to find an Oil company that's trading at a "fair" price. And I dont like the Oil Services companies

2) Gold - US$1318 from US$1296 last week. It's the sitting that makes the money

3) Shanghai Equities - 2656 from 2592 last week. Closed until next Friday.

4) HK Equities - 22358 from 22119 last week. Bought Fook Woo and China High Speed Transmission. Sold Rexlot. Reaching Resistance level ?

5) Spore Equities - 3131 from 3093 last week. When is the GE ? Bought Wilmar.

6) US Equities - 1146 from 1148 last week. Did it break out convincingly ?

7) Japan Equities - 9404 from 9472 last week. Traders are waiting to go long on the Yen so it may be a bit early to buy the Topix.

8) Emerging Markets - Still a lot of inflows.

9) Iran - Non-event now ?

10) USD - 78.31 from 79.48 last week. Support of 80 broken convincingly ?

11) Properties - various programs to curb prices in HK, China and Singapore


Window Dressing is now over. However, the markets should still be "safe" for another week due to the new inflows from a new month. As for the second week of October, we can look at it at that point in time..

Intuitively, I think the market is due for a breather. However, there could still be special situations out there that one can still safely pursue.

And if the dip does come, wouldn't that be a buying opportunity if this is still a Trading Market ?


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Active Topics: Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.