AUD 01 (May 08 - Feb 12)

[LenaHuat]

I'm waiting for it to drop to parity again vs SGD during the upcoming panic to lock in this commodity currency as a yield play.

Great idea I share this view . I can see that mojo is twiddling her thumbs too.

[kennynah]

now i know...mojo is a "her"....

[mojo_]

ok lah, this is mojo at the keyboard replying to this post...



woof woof

[kennynah]

ohhhh.... a doggie

[LenaHuat]

Hi K
I'm using this thread to reply U abt the Australian dollar. I must say that I don't dabble in currencies although I track them for their effects on my investments. There has been so many interest rate hikes by the RBA that I need to retrieve this link to get the history:-
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/05/04/2890204.htm
6 hikes in 8 months has raised the cash rate to 4.5% and the mortgage variable rate to ard slightly above 7%. From my recollection, the l/t spread between the cash rate and the board rate is ard 3% for Australia (unlike Singapore's 2%) and the 7+% is IMHO the about right rate. This means the RBA wouldn't be raising rates soon.

[LenaHuat]

Note the last comment by JP Morgan, that rates would rise to 6.5% by year-end. Based on my current assessment, I don't think it will.

[kennynah]

Thanks L

I share the similar view that rate hikes for the year is done... the refusal by RBA to give market a clear sign on rates moving forward is likely more towards containing any intentions to fuel a sell off of aud $$

[kennynah]

currently aud.usd is exchanging hands at ~0.8290....

it appears that it might head towards ~0.81 in the immediate term...before finding some strong support...

[kennynah]

let's stay flexible...

watch it...AUD/usd has just broken upwards of a short term channel... now trading at 0.8471

[kennynah]

peo ah

now have a hurdle at 0.8525 to cross over... hopefully this baby can jump like kangeroos...and leap over this recent high...