Trichet Clears Obstacles to Higher Rates in Stimulus Withdrawal By John Fraher and Frances Robinson
Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet is
withdrawing stimulus measures faster than economists anticipated, clearing obstacles to higher interest rates next year.
The ECB’s decision yesterday
to end long-term emergency loans and tighten the terms of its final 12-month tender will give greater traction to any rate increases in 2010 should policy makers deem them necessary.
“The ECB chose a quicker exit path,†said Laurent Bilke, a former ECB economist now at Nomura International Plc in London.
“It’s very difficult not to think it’s the beginning of a tightening process.†Yesterday’s announcements “put the ECB in a position where it can choose to raise rates if it wants to further down the line,†said David Page, an economist at Investec Securities in London.
“We’re penciling in a rate rise in the second half of next year.†“Once liquidity conditions normalize in the third quarter of next year, the Eonia rate is likely to move back to the refinancing rate,†said Nick Kounis, chief European economist at Fortis Bank Nederland NV in Amsterdam.
“This would pave the way for conventional monetary tightening from the autumn of next year, and
we expect 50 basis points of rate hikes by the end of 2010.†http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... BfRHhIWU5E
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"