<Research>UBS Cuts TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK) TP to HKD513 as Conclusion of Antitrust Probe Removes Regulatory Overhang
China's State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) announced its administrative decision on the antitrust investigation into TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK, requiring rectification measures and imposing a fine of approximately RMB5.2 billion, UBS said in a research report.
Following the announcement of the rectification plan, UBS expected the long-standing regulatory overhang to be ousted, while believing TRIP.COM-S will proactively optimize its operating model to comply with the evolving regulatory environment.
Related News - BofAS: TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK) Antitrust Penalty Clears Regulatory Overhang, Maintains Buy Rating
Addressing possible weaker hotel revenue amid operational adjustments and macro uncertainties, the broker lowered its revenue forecasts for TRIP.COM-S for 3Q26 and 4Q26 by 2.1% and 1.6%, respectively, while its non-GAAP net profit forecasts were cut by 5.3% and 5.7%, respectively.
UBS maintained its Buy rating on TRIP.COM-S, while lowering its TP from HKD547 to HKD513. It also cut the US share TP for Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM.US) from USD70 to USD65.
Source: AASTOCKS Financial News
https://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news ... -news/AAFN
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Trip.com (TCOM); (former Ctrip); HK 9961
Re: Trip.com (TCOM); (former Ctrip); HK 9961
by winston » Tue Jul 28, 2026 11:03 am
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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Re: Trip.com (TCOM); (former Ctrip); HK 9961
by winston » Tue Jul 28, 2026 11:38 am
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<Research> Daiwa: Removal of Regulatory Overhang Positive for Market Sentiment, Maintains Buy Rating on TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK)
The regulator ruled that the group's operations violated anti-monopoly regulations, imposing fines and confiscations totaling nearly RMB5.2 billion, while requiring the company to return RMB122 million in deposits previously withheld from hotel operators.
This marks the largest anti-monopoly penalty since the 2021 regulatory crackdown on the tech sector, equivalent to about 7.5% of TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK) 's estimated domestic revenue of approximately RMB47 billion in 2025.
Daiwa believes the RMB5.18 billion fine accounts for around 30% of its 2026 adjusted net profit forecast of RMB15.8 billion, exceeding the RMB 2 billion provision already incorporated in its estimates, implying further downside risk to 2026 earnings.
The broker also expects commission rates and market share in TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK) 's domestic accommodation business to come under pressure.
Related News- Citi: Antitrust Fine on TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK) by State Administration for Market Regulation May Reduce Share Price Uncertainty
However, Daiwa still believes the removal of the regulatory overhang will serve as a positive catalyst for market sentiment.
TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK)'s share price has already fallen about 40% YTD, and regulatory uncertainty has largely been removed.
The broker maintained its Buy rating on the stock.
Source: AASTOCKS Financial News
https://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news ... -news/AAFN
<Research> Daiwa: Removal of Regulatory Overhang Positive for Market Sentiment, Maintains Buy Rating on TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK)
The regulator ruled that the group's operations violated anti-monopoly regulations, imposing fines and confiscations totaling nearly RMB5.2 billion, while requiring the company to return RMB122 million in deposits previously withheld from hotel operators.
This marks the largest anti-monopoly penalty since the 2021 regulatory crackdown on the tech sector, equivalent to about 7.5% of TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK) 's estimated domestic revenue of approximately RMB47 billion in 2025.
Daiwa believes the RMB5.18 billion fine accounts for around 30% of its 2026 adjusted net profit forecast of RMB15.8 billion, exceeding the RMB 2 billion provision already incorporated in its estimates, implying further downside risk to 2026 earnings.
The broker also expects commission rates and market share in TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK) 's domestic accommodation business to come under pressure.
Related News- Citi: Antitrust Fine on TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK) by State Administration for Market Regulation May Reduce Share Price Uncertainty
However, Daiwa still believes the removal of the regulatory overhang will serve as a positive catalyst for market sentiment.
TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK)'s share price has already fallen about 40% YTD, and regulatory uncertainty has largely been removed.
The broker maintained its Buy rating on the stock.
Source: AASTOCKS Financial News
https://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news ... -news/AAFN
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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winston - Billionaire Boss
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Re: Trip.com (TCOM); (former Ctrip); HK 9961
by winston » Fri Jul 31, 2026 10:00 pm
vested
RATING: BUY SHARE PRICE: HKD 367.00 12M TP: HKD 450.00
After several months of investigation, the China’s State Administration for Market Regulation imposed a RMB 5.2 bn penalty for anti-monopoly violations, including a RMB 3.5 bn fine and the forfeiture of RMB 1.7 bn in gains on the company.
While the near-term impact on earnings is negative, we view the regulatory action as a clearing event that removes uncertainty.
The company’s commitment to rectification measures should improve its relationship with hotel partners and support more sustainable growth.
The penalty also represents a one-off cash outflow rather than a recurring earnings headwinds.
Importantly, Trip.com remains the leading online travel platform in China, with structural growth supported by rising domestic travel, outbound tourism recovery and international expansion.
We believe the sell-off provides an attractive entry point as fundamentals remain resilient. Trip.com trades at forward P/E of 11.5x, at a discount to its 10-year median of 18.3x.
Source: Maybank
RATING: BUY SHARE PRICE: HKD 367.00 12M TP: HKD 450.00
After several months of investigation, the China’s State Administration for Market Regulation imposed a RMB 5.2 bn penalty for anti-monopoly violations, including a RMB 3.5 bn fine and the forfeiture of RMB 1.7 bn in gains on the company.
While the near-term impact on earnings is negative, we view the regulatory action as a clearing event that removes uncertainty.
The company’s commitment to rectification measures should improve its relationship with hotel partners and support more sustainable growth.
The penalty also represents a one-off cash outflow rather than a recurring earnings headwinds.
Importantly, Trip.com remains the leading online travel platform in China, with structural growth supported by rising domestic travel, outbound tourism recovery and international expansion.
We believe the sell-off provides an attractive entry point as fundamentals remain resilient. Trip.com trades at forward P/E of 11.5x, at a discount to its 10-year median of 18.3x.
Source: Maybank
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 115615
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Trip.com (TCOM); (former Ctrip); HK 9961
by winston » Wed Sep 16, 2026 9:32 am
vested
<Results>TRIP.COM-S 2Q Adj. NP Sinks 4%; Antitrust Penalty Swings Firm to RMB2.46B Loss
TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK) announced its results for 2Q26.
The group swung to a net loss of RMB2.458 billion during the period, compared with a net profit of RMB4.846 billion in the same period last year.
LPS was RMB3.89 per ordinary share. Under non-GAAP measures, net profit amounted to RMB4.798 billion, down 4.3% YoY, while diluted EPS was RMB7.27 per ordinary share.
Adjusted EBITDA was RMB4.565 billion, down 6.4% YoY.
The group explained that it was fined RMB5.18 billion in an antitrust penalty by the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) during the period. Excluding the impact of the penalty, 2Q net profit would have been RMB2.7 billion.
Source: AASTOCKS Financial News
https://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news ... -news/AAFN
<Results>TRIP.COM-S 2Q Adj. NP Sinks 4%; Antitrust Penalty Swings Firm to RMB2.46B Loss
TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK) announced its results for 2Q26.
The group swung to a net loss of RMB2.458 billion during the period, compared with a net profit of RMB4.846 billion in the same period last year.
LPS was RMB3.89 per ordinary share. Under non-GAAP measures, net profit amounted to RMB4.798 billion, down 4.3% YoY, while diluted EPS was RMB7.27 per ordinary share.
Adjusted EBITDA was RMB4.565 billion, down 6.4% YoY.
The group explained that it was fined RMB5.18 billion in an antitrust penalty by the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) during the period. Excluding the impact of the penalty, 2Q net profit would have been RMB2.7 billion.
Source: AASTOCKS Financial News
https://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news ... -news/AAFN
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 115615
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
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