Trip.com (TCOM); (former Ctrip); HK 9961

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<Research>Citi: TRIP.COM-S 1Q Revenue and Adj. Operating Profit Slightly Beat; Adj. Net Profit Misses

TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK) reported its results for 1Q26, with revenue lifting 17% YoY to RMB16.2 billion, 2% above Citi’s and market's expectations.

Non-GAAP adjusted operating margin reached 28.6%, slightly above the broker’s forecast of 27.8%, on the back of strong revenue growth and solid control over S&M expenses.

However, non-GAAP net profit for the period was RMB3.91 billion, below the broker's and market's expectations of RMB4.4 billion and RMB4.2 billion, respectively, owing to losses from associates (amounting to RMB1.15 billion), which may be related to the share price pullback of MakeMyTrip (MMYT.US) .

Looking ahead to 2Q26, the company guided that total net revenue growth will slow to about 3-8% YoY, mainly affected by swelling oil prices and business rectification following an investigation by the State Administration for Market Regulation, which is in line with market expectations.

In Citi view, investors should focus on the latest developments of the investigation, the impact of rectification measures targeting premium/branded hotels, and potential implications for the company’s long-term fundamentals.

The broker maintained its Buy rating and kept its US TP at USD82 for Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM.US).

Source: AASTOCKS Financial News

https://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news ... -news/AAFN

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1Q26: Resilient Top-line Growth; 2Q26 Guidance Below Expectations

Trip.com reported mixed 1Q26 results, with revenue broadly in line with our and the street’s expectations, while profitability came in below the street’s estimates.

Total net revenue rose 17% yoy to Rmb16.2b. Non-GAAP net income declined 6.8% yoy to Rmb3.9b, in line with our expectation but missing consensus estimate by 7%, while non-GAAP net margin expanded 3.8ppt yoy to 31.2%.

TCOM guided for 2Q26 total net revenue growth to decelerate to 38% yoy, with the midpoint implying a 9-10% miss vs consensus expectation.

Maintain BUY with a lower target price of HK$475.00 (US$53.00).

Source: UOBKH

https://research.uobkayhian.com/content ... e=hs_email

[winston]

Sailing through headwinds

Cut FY26-27F earnings by c.6% and TP by 23% on softer domestic assumptions; accommodation and transport segments face near-term pressure; regulatory uncertainty

Trading at appealing 10x FY27F P/E, -2SD below 2-year avg of 16x, the negatives are largely priced in

Margin supported by strategic pivot from air-ticket-centric mix toward higher-margined commission international hotels, cross-sell local activities, guided y/y Int’l platform (Trip.com) revenue growth of 40-50% in 2Q26, overseas packaged tours doubling y/y to >10% of segment revenue

Well positioned to capture secular growth of Chinese’s travel demand with robust overseas growth;

Maintain BUY call with lower TPs of HKD431/USD55

Source: DBS

https://www.dbs.com/insightsdirect/comp ... ecid=31427

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<Research> Daiwa Cuts TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK) TP to HKD508; 2Q Outlook Dim Amid Macro and Regulatory Headwinds

Daiwa issued a research report stating that TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK) was hit by a double blow from macroeconomic weakness and regulatory adjustments in 1Q.

The company’s 2Q revenue guidance implies YoY growth of 3% to 8%, with the midpoint of 5.5% marking a significant slowdown and about 7% below market consensus.

The broker lowered its TP from HKD626 to HKD508, while reiterating its Buy rating.

It expects weak domestic demand and compliance adjustments in mainland China to continue weighing heavily on revenue in fiscal years 2026 through 2028.

Daiwa noted that domestic demand in 2Q declined due to a softer macro environment and higher jet fuel surcharges driven by elevated oil prices.

At the same time, high fuel costs have constrained capacity growth in flight supply.

On the regulatory front, TRIP.COM-S has undertaken business adjustments since the end of 1Q to comply with regulatory requirements, including implementing stricter traffic monetization discipline.

The broker expects this to drag 2Q transportation segment revenue down by 20% to 30% YoY.

Nevertheless, international operations remain the core growth driver, with Trip.com’s international business projected to deliver over 50% YoY revenue growth in 2Q, lifting its contribution to around 20% of total group revenue.

Related News - TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK) 1Q Net Profit RMB2.5B Falls 41.6% YoY, Sees 2Q Net Revenue Up 3%-8%

Daiwa cut its EPS forecasts for fiscal years 2026 to 2028 by 8% to 14%, reflecting a weaker revenue outlook, with its projections 5% to 17% below market consensus.

The broker expects margin dilution pressure from 2Q to 4QYY, mainly due to cost deleveraging and a higher contribution from international operations, though this may be partly offset by stringent cost controls and AI-driven efficiency gains.

Adjusted operating margin in 2Q is currently forecast to decline by 3.6 ppts YoY to 27.8%.

Source: AASTOCKS Financial News

https://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news ... -news/AAFN

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<Research> Citi Cuts Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM.US) TP to USD64 as Oil Prices and Policy Factors Weigh on 2Q Performance

Citi issued a research report stating that TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK) guided for 2Q net revenue YoY growth to slow to 3% to 8%, indicating a relatively weak performance.

This was mainly due to rising fuel surcharges weighing on domestic, outbound and international travel demand, as well as proactive business adjustments made by the company to comply with regulatory requirements.

The bank lowered its US share TP for Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM.US) from USD82 to USD64, but maintained its Buy rating, citing intact long-term growth prospects.

Citi noted that affected by higher fuel surcharges, domestic air ticket demand softened in 2Q, while train ticket booking operations were dragged by business adjustments.

Transportation segment revenue is expected to turn negative YoY in 2Q.

Meanwhile, amid cautious travel demand under high oil prices, particularly for outbound travel, hotel segment revenue is projected to grow 10% YoY.

However, its international OTA platform Trip.com is expected to maintain strong YoY growth momentum of over 40%.

Due to the slowdown in the higher-margin outbound travel business, adjusted operating margin for 2026 is forecast to decline 4 ppts YoY to 27%, though the decline is expected to narrow in 2HYY as expenses are optimized.

Related News - Citi: TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK) 1Q26 Revenue and Adj. Operating Profit Slightly Beat; Adj. Net Profit Misses

Citi lowered its earnings forecasts for Trip.com for FY2026, FY2027 and FY2028 by 11%, 7% and 6%, respectively.

The bank derived the new TP based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation approach and, in light of the overall valuation downgrade in China’s internet sector, revised down the FY2026 forecast PE multiple for its core business from 20x to 15x.

Source: AASTOCKS Financial News

https://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news ... -news/AAFN

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Trip.com faces verdict as China to wrap up antitrust probes as soon as this week: sources

by Coco Fengin

China’s market regulator is poised to announce the outcome of its months-long antitrust investigation into Trip.com Group, the country’s largest online travel services provider, as soon as this week, according to three people familiar with the matter.

The probes, launched in January by the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR), could be concluded as early as Monday, one of the people said.

The company could face a fine of between 2 billion yuan (US$295 million) and 6 billion yuan, according to two of them.

Under China’s anti-monopoly law, violators can be penalised with confiscation of illegal proceeds and fines of up to 10 per cent of the previous year’s sales.

Source: SCMP

https://www.scmp.com/tech/policy/articl ... pe=section

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China fines Trip.com US$765 million for abusing market dominance

[BEIJING] Chinese regulators fined Trip.com Group 5.18 billion yuan (US$765 million), concluding that the country’s largest travel booking platform abused its market dominance after a months-long investigation.

The probe found that Trip.com employed monopolistic practices centred on traffic allocation mechanisms, utilising its platform rules and technology.

The company restricted hotel operators’ cross-platform operations and infringed on their right to set their own prices, harming consumer interests, it said.

Local authorities summoned Trip.com’s rivals including ByteDance’s Douyin and Meituan on antitrust concerns last year.

Trip.com controls about 56 per cent of China’s online travel market, according to research firm China Trading Desk, and it’s now the world’s largest booking site.

As hotel operators rely heavily on Trip.com for visibility and traffic, the platform has been using that leverage to try and prevent them from listing on competing services like Alibaba’s Fliggy, Douyin or Meituan.

Trip.com accounted for nearly half of mainland outbound travel market in 2024.

Founded in 1999, Trip.com offers flights, hotels, car rentals and excursions through its brands such as Ctrip and Skyscanner.

Source: BLOOMBERG

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/compan ... -dominance

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TRIP.COM-S Violates Anti-monopoly Law, Fined and Ordered to Refund Over RMB5.3B in Mainland China

TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK) announced that on July 25, 2026, the Company received an administrative penalty decision issued by the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) of China.

Pursuant to Articles 57 and 59 of the Anti-Monopoly Law, the SAMR ordered the Company to cease violating acts and fully refund RMB122 million in hotel order security deposits that were compulsorily deducted from hotel operators; confiscated the Company’s gains of RMB1.658 billion from violating acts; and imposed a fine of RMB3.521 billion, representing 7.5% of the Company’s sales revenue generated from its operations in China in 2025.

Source: AASTOCKS Financial News

https://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news ... -news/AAFN

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<Research>JPM Says TRIP.COM-S Antitrust Penalty Within Expectations, Recommends Accumulating on Weakness

After TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK) was penalized by China's State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR), JPMorgan said in a report the penalty decision was within expectations, with the fine amounting to RMB5.179 billion, within the broker's forecast range of RMB600 million to RMB6.2 billion.

The broker foresaw a short-term relief rally similar to the post-penalty precedents seen in BABA-W (09988.HK) and MEITUAN-W (03690.HK) although sustained re-rating will require earnings over the next two quarters to prove that regulatory headwinds are fading.

JPMorgan noted that the penalty amount was equivalent to 7.5% of the company's 2025 mainland China revenue of RMB46.958 billion, including a fine of RMB3.521 billion, confiscation of illegal gains totaling RMB1.658 billion, and refunds of RMB122 million in order reserves deducted from hotels.

The penalty ratio was higher than BABA-W's 4% and MEITUAN-W's 3%, reflecting that the two violations lasted for six years and were enforced through technical means.

The broker said confiscation of illegal gains is relatively rare among major platform cases, but the annual scale of less than RMB300 million would have limited impact on earnings.

The bank expected TRIP.COM-S to follow MEITUAN-W's rectification model by separating hybrid commissions into transparent transaction service fees and optional performance products.

As the penalty only removes mandatory leverage, hotels are still expected to maintain competitive pricing and purchase visibility to preserve occupancy rates.

JPMorgan maintained its Overweight rating on TRIP.COM-S Hong Kong shares.

Source: AASTOCKS Financial News

https://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news ... -news/AAFN

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Antitrust Penalty Finalised; Regulatory Overhang Clears

Despite Near-Term Domestic Pressure

Trip.com’s Rmb5.18b penalty formally concludes the antitrust investigation and removes a key regulatory overhang.

Compliance-related adjustments may create near-term pressure on domestic operations and contribute to a softer 2Q26 revenue growth of 3-8% yoy.

However, the impact on core earnings should remain limited, supported by over 30% growth in the international business and the company’s strong brand, integrated platform and customer stickiness.

Maintain BUY with a higher target price of HK$508.00 (US$65.00).

Source: UOBKH

https://research.uobkayhian.com/content ... e=hs_email