Winston's Investment Ideas 06 (Aug 22 - Dec 26)

[winston]

TOL: How Long Will This Storm Last (Part 15)?

storm.jpg

It's now the 13th week of the war and Oil is still about 50% higher since the start of the war.

In the meantime, the markets continue to grind higher to record highs.

My exposure to Equities has climbed back up to about 53% of my Liquid Assets this week.

I'm still trying to bring it down to about 30% before Jul 24th (Tariffs from Regulation 301) but it's a very difficult task when you continue to see big dips out there.

In the meantime, Hormuz is still not opened and the euphoria is continuing in the Semiconductor and AI sectors.

Some TA "experts" are now saying that the US market is quite overbought especially in the AI & Semiconductor areas and that there would be a correction within the next few weeks.

This Memorial Day weekend is also the unofficial start of the Summer and the traders would be going on holidays soon. Therefore, trading volumes would be decreasing soon. In a few weeks time, trading volume will decrease further due to the FIFA World Cup.

Another warning sign is the rise in US interest rates. The spike in the US Treasuries yield is a bit of a concern.

The situation in Indonesia is also something else to note as well. The Rupiah has dropped about 35% and is at record low. The Indonesian stock market is dropping and the government has to increase interest rates while the economy is weakening.

Will the situation in Indonesia spread to other countries eg. Thailand, Philippines, India etc. ? (The Asian Financial Crisis started in Thailand and within a very short time, it quickly spread throughout Asia).

My trading strategy continues to be:-
1. To reduce the number of counters from 34 to 15;
2. To reduce my exposure to ADRs; The Cold War will continue;
3. To reduce my exposure to Equities to about 30% by Jul 24 (Tariffs Regulation 301)
4. To be invested in Growth and Momentum only; There's always a Bull Market somewhere;

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. FIFA World Cup: Jun 11 - Jul 19; Lower Stockmarkets Turnover & Casinos Visit;
2. June 16 & 17: FOMC Meeting; Non-Event?
3. Jul 01: USMCA Ending; Non-Event?
4. Jul 07: Trump to attend NATO Summit? Non-Event?
5. Jul 24: Restoring Tariffs through Regulation 301;
6. July 28 & 29: FOMC Meeting; Non-Event?


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher (53% from 46% last week from 40% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 30% exposure to Equities before Jul 24 (Regulations 301)

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Max 5 Counters Per Country (Not Easy)
a. HK: 31% (12 Counters); Overbought AI & Semiconductors
b. US: 26% (10 Counters); Overbought AI & Semiconductors;
c. Malaysia: 43% (12 Counters); Banks; Elections;
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? USD; CHF? SGD?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities eg. HK and Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to USD & HKD
d. Heavy exposure to China ADRs (Cold War)
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk Off; Data as of every Saturday;

1. WTI Oil. Lower; US$97 from US$105 last week from US$95 two weeks ago;
Support: US$84 (Apr 2026); US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: US$115 (Apr 2026); US$128 (2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Global Demand: 100m bpd
b. Straits of Hormuz: 20m bpd off-line; Japan, Korea, China;
c. G7: Releasing 400m barrels (20 days of Hormuz); 3 Months to release; Max: 1.2b barrels (60 days of Hormuz)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold; Lower; US$4523 from US$4562 from US$4731;
Support: 3400; 2900; 1500; Resistance 5600
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024: US$80b, 20% of Demand
d. Investors: 45% of Gold Demand
e. 30% of mined gold are used for Jewellery
f. 5% of mined gold are for Industrial
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver; Lower; US$76 from US$77 from US$81;
Resistance: US$93; US$117; Support: US$70; US$58 (Dec 2025);
a. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
b. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
c. Solar Industry: 20% of Demand
d. Small position in SLV to follow the story
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper. Higher; US$6.38 from US$6.30 from US$6.30;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 6.20 (Jan 2026)
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 8&start=23

5. Bitcoin. Lower; "75,421 @ 8.20 AM May 23, 2026" from "79,147 @ 8.35 AM May 16 2026" from "80,297 @ 9.21 AM May 9 2026";
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030?
c. Demand from Ukraine, Middle East & Venezuela?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$124,000 (Sep 2025)
i. Support: US$60,000, US$54,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk Off (Data as of Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index; Lower; "59 Greed" from "63 Greed" last week from "67 Greed" two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities; Higher; 7473 from 7409 last week from 7399 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 7500
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 19; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 40; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: PE 30; Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 26,000; Support: 22,100; 21,000; 17,000;
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold = 1.7
i. Bought GRAB
j. Traded FUTU

2. HK Equities; Lower; 25612 from 25968 from 26393;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800 (Apr 2025); 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 27300 (Oct 2025); 30,000; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. 2006 Target: 27,500 MS;
e. Bought Baidu
f. Bought New Oriental Education

3. Shanghai Equities; Lower; 4113 from 4136 from 4180;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Targeted Stimulus Programs
c. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
d. 2006 Target: 4840 MS;
e. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1713 from 1740 from 1722:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Added to Alliance Bank
d. Traded PUC


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on May 22, 2026 @ 3.14 PM)

1. USD to JPY; JPY Weaker; 159 from 158 last week from 157 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR; SGD Stronger; 3.10 from 3.09 from 3.09;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD; AUD Weaker; 0.71 from 0.72 from 0.72;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD; EUR Flat; 1.16 from 1.16 from 1.17;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD; HKD Weaker; 7.8361 from 7.8303 from 7.8295;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR: MYR Weaker; 3.97 from 3.95 from 3.92;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD: SGD Flat; 1.28 from 1.28 from 1.27;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing the finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY; CNY Flat; 6.80 from 6.80 from 6.80;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 99.31 from 99.08 last week from 98.08 two weeks ago;
Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Lower; 4.55% from 4.60% last week from 4.36% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 4.12% from 4.08% from 3.89%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Higher; 96.25 from 95.72 last week from 96.52 two weeks ago;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.

[winston]

TOL: How Long Will This Storm Last (Part 16)?

storm.jpg

It's now the 14th week of the war and Oil is still about 35% higher since the start of the war.

In the meantime, the US markets continue to grind higher to record highs.

My exposure to Equities has dropped a bit to about 51% of my Liquid Assets this week. I'm still trying to bring it down to about 30% before Jul 24th (Tariffs from Regulation 301).

In the meantime, Hormuz is still not opened, yada yada blah blah ... Even if they succeed in getting an agreement, what is there to prevent a flare-up later especially closer to the November Mid-Terms? In the meantime, everyone is replenishing their inventories of weapons.

Some TA "experts" eg. Jeff Clark, are now saying that the US market is quite overbought especially in the AI & Semiconductor areas and that there would be a correction within the next few weeks.

My trading strategy remains as:-
1. To reduce the number of counters from 34 to 15;
2. To reduce my exposure to ADRs and HK Equities; Headwind for ADRs as the US-China Cold War is ongoing; Headwind for HK Equities as about HK$250b of HK Equities needs to be sold from the cross border crackdown;
3. To reduce my exposure to Equities to about 30% by Jul 24 (Tariffs Regulation 301)
4. To be invested in Growth and Momentum only; There's always a Bull Market somewhere. Unfortunately, I'm under-weight the Semiconductor and AI sectors this rally.

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. FIFA World Cup: Jun 11 - Jul 19; Lower Stockmarkets Turnover & Casinos Visit;
2. June 16 & 17: FOMC Meeting; Non-Event?
3. Jul 01: USMCA Ending; Non-Event?
4. Jul 07: Trump to attend NATO Summit? Non-Event?
5. Jul 24: Restoring Tariffs through Regulation 301;
6. July 28 & 29: FOMC Meeting; Non-Event?


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower (51% from 53% last week from 46% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 30% exposure to Equities before the next crash;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Max 5 Counters Per Country (Not Easy)
a. HK: 31% (12 Counters); Overbought AI & Semiconductors
b. US: 28% (11 Counters); Overbought AI & Semiconductors;
c. Malaysia: 41% (11 Counters); Banks; Elections;
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? USD; CHF? SGD?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities eg. HK and Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to USD & HKD
d. Heavy exposure to China ADRs (Cold War)
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Mixed; Data as of every Saturday;

1. WTI Oil. Lower; US$87 from US$97 last week from US$105 two weeks ago;
Support: US$84 (Apr 2026); US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: US$115 (Apr 2026); US$128 (2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Global Demand: 100m bpd
b. Straits of Hormuz: 20m bpd off-line; Japan, Korea, China;
c. G7: Releasing 400m barrels (20 days of Hormuz); 3 Months to release; Max: 1.2b barrels (60 days of Hormuz)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold; Higher; US$4593 from US$4523 from US$4562;
Support: 3400; 2900; 1500; Resistance 5600
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024: US$80b, 20% of Demand
d. Investors: 45% of Gold Demand
e. 30% of mined gold are used for Jewellery
f. 5% of mined gold are for Industrial
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver; Flat; US$76 from US$76 from US$77;
Resistance: US$93; US$117; Support: US$70; US$58 (Dec 2025);
a. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
b. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
c. Solar Industry: 20% of Demand
d. Small position in SLV to follow the story
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper. Higher; US$6.42 from US$6.38 from US$6.30;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 6.20 (Jan 2026)
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 8&start=23

5. Bitcoin. Lower; "73,424 @ 8.34 AM May 30, 2026" from "75,421 @ 8.20 AM May 23, 2026" from "79,147 @ 8.35 AM May 16 2026";
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030?
c. Demand from Ukraine, Middle East & Venezuela?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$124,000 (Sep 2025)
i. Support: US$60,000, US$54,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk On (Data as of Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index; Higher; "60 Greed" from "59 Greed" last week from "63 Greed" two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities; Higher; 7580 from 7473 last week from 7409 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 7500
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 19; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio; Current = 40; Sept 1929 = 35; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: PE 30; Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 26,000; Support: 22,100; 21,000; 17,000;
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold = 1.7

2. HK Equities; Lower; 25182 from 25612 from 25968;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 24,400 (Mar 2026); 19800 (Apr 2025); 15300 (Jan 2024); 14800 (Oct 2022);
b. Resistance: 26,600 (Apr 2026); 28,000 (Jan 2026); 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. 2006 Target: 27,500 MS;
e. No Trade

3. Shanghai Equities; Lower; 4069 from 4113 from 4136;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Targeted Stimulus Programs
c. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
d. 2006 Target: 4840 MS;
e. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1683 from 1713 from 1740:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Sold Ambank


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on May 29, 2026 @ 3.25 PM)

1. USD to JPY; JPY Flat; 159 from 159 last week from 158 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR; SGD Flat; 3.10 from 3.10 from 3.09;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD; AUD Stronger; 0.72 from 0.71 from 0.72;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD; EUR Flat; 1.16 from 1.16 from 1.16;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD; HKD Stronger; 7.8348 from 7.8361 from 7.8303;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR: MYR Flat; 3.97 from 3.97 from 3.95;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD: SGD Flat; 1.28 from 1.28 from 1.28;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing the finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY; CNY Stronger; 6.77 from 6.80 from 6.80;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 99.07 from 99.31 last week from 99.08 two weeks ago;
Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Lower; 4.44% from 4.55% last week from 4.60% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Lower; 4.00% from 4.12% from 4.08%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Higher; 96.77 from 96.25 last week from 95.72 two weeks ago;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.

[winston]

TOL: How Long Will This Storm Last (Part 17)?

storm.jpg

It's now the 15th week of the war and Oil is still about 38% higher since the start of the war.

In the meantime, the US markets is starting to dip especially in the Semiconductor and AI sectors.

My exposure to Equities has remained at about 51% of my Liquid Assets. I'm still trying to bring it down to about 30% before Jul 24th (Tariffs from Regulation 301).

In the meantime, Hormuz is still closed ... yada yada, blah blah. If you believe a snake-oil salesman then it's your fault if you lose your money.

My trading strategy remains as:-
1. To reduce the number of counters from 34 to 15;
2. To reduce my exposure to ADRs and HK Equities; Headwind for ADRs as the US-China Cold War will be ongoing; Headwind for HK Equities as HK Equities needs to be sold from the cross border crackdown;
3. To reduce my exposure to Equities to about 30% by Jul 24 (Tariffs Regulation 301)

On Friday, the Semiconductors and AI plays were whacked from the Broadcom episode. The current thinking is that it's ok to buy the dip as it would only crash after the formation of an "M" or "Triple Tops" on the chart. This is only the first dip and there's a chance for a trading position.

My experience with such situations is that as long as the Fund Managers are not selling then it's ok to buy on the dip.

However, if the Fund Managers are taking profits then you may want to step aside and let them finish their selling first. It normally takes 2 to 3 weeks for things to stabilize if they are actually taking profits. You have seen this played out before in Bitcoin and recently in Silver. You dont want to be too early to the party.

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. FIFA World Cup: Jun 11 - Jul 19; Lower Stockmarkets Turnover & Casinos Visit;
2. June 16: BOJ to raise short term rates to 1% from 0.75%; Non-Event?
3. June 16 & 17: FOMC Meeting; Non-Event?
4. June 18: Triple Witching; Do the witches have a gift for you?
5. June 30: IH Window Dressing
6. Jul 01: USMCA Ending; Non-Event?
7. Jul 07: Trump to attend NATO Summit? Non-Event?
8. Jul 24: Restoring Tariffs through Regulation 301;
9. July 28 & 29: FOMC Meeting; Non-Event?


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Flat (51% from 51% last week from 53% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 30% exposure to Equities before the next crash;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Max 5 Counters Per Country (Not Easy)
a. HK: 29% (11 Counters); Overbought AI & Semiconductors
b. US: 26% (12 Counters); Overbought AI & Semiconductors;
c. Malaysia: 45% (11 Counters); Banks; Elections;
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? USD; CHF? SGD?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities eg. HK, Msia, ADRs
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to USD & HKD
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Mixed; Data as of every Saturday;

1. WTI Oil. Higher; US$91 from US$87 last week from US$97 two weeks ago;
Support: US$84 (Apr 2026); US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: US$115 (Apr 2026); US$128 (2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Global Demand: 100m bpd
b. Straits of Hormuz: 20m bpd off-line; Japan, Korea, China;
c. G7: Releasing 400m barrels (20 days of Hormuz); 3 Months to release; Max: 1.2b barrels (60 days of Hormuz)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold; Lower; US$4365 from US$4593 from US$4523;
Support: 3400; 2900; 1500; Resistance 5600
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024: US$80b, 20% of Demand
d. Investors: 45% of Gold Demand
e. 30% of mined gold are used for Jewellery
f. 5% of mined gold are for Industrial
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver; Lower; US$69 from US$76 from US$76;
Resistance: US$93; US$117; Support: US$70; US$58 (Dec 2025);
a. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
b. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
c. Solar Industry: 20% of Demand
d. Small position in SLV to follow the story
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper. Lower; US$6.28 from US$6.42 from US$6.38;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 6.20 (Jan 2026)
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 8&start=23

5. Bitcoin. Lower; "60,758 @ 7.32 AM June 6, 2026" from "73,424 @ 8.34 AM May 30, 2026" from "75,421 @ 8.20 AM May 23, 2026";
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030?
c. Demand from Ukraine, Middle East & Venezuela?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$124,000 (Sep 2025)
i. Support: US$54,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk Off (Data as of Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index; Lower; "42 Fear" from "60 Greed" last week from "59 Greed" two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities; Lower; 7384 from 7580 last week from 7473 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 7500
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 19; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio; Current = 40; Sept 1929 = 35; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: PE 30; Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 26,000; Support: 22,100; 21,000; 17,000;
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold = 1.7
i. Bought SEA (SE)

2. HK Equities; Lower; 24961 from 25182 from 25612;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 24,400 (Mar 2026); 19800 (Apr 2025); 15300 (Jan 2024); 14800 (Oct 2022);
b. Resistance: 26,600 (Apr 2026); 28,000 (Jan 2026); 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. 2006 Target: 27,500 MS;
e. Sold Tencent

3. Shanghai Equities; Lower; 4069 from 4113 from 4136;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Targeted Stimulus Programs
c. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
d. 2006 Target: 4840 MS;
e. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1683 from 1713 from 1740:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. No Trade


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on June 5, 2026 @ 3.45 PM)

1. USD to JPY; JPY Weaker; 160 from 159 last week from 159 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR; SGD Higher; 3.13 from 3.10 from 3.10;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD; AUD Weaker; 0.70 from 0.72 from 0.71;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD; EUR Weaker; 1.15 from 1.16 from 1.16;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD; HKD Stronger; 7.8345 from 7.8348 from 7.8361;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR: MYR Weaker; 4.03 from 3.97 from 3.97;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD: SGD Weaker; 1.29 from 1.28 from 1.28;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing the finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY; CNY Flat; 6.77 from 6.77 from 6.80;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 100.07 from 99.07 last week from 99.31 two weeks ago;
Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 4.54% from 4.44% last week from 4.55% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 4.16% from 4.00% from 4.12%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Lower; 95.73 from 96.77 last week from 96.25 two weeks ago;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.

[winston]

TOL: How Long Will This Storm Last (Part 18)?

It's now the 16th week of the war and Oil is still about 30% higher since the start of the war.

In the meantime, the US markets is still at an elevated level especially in the Semiconductor and AI sectors.

While the Semiconductors & AI sectors are booming, the rest of the economy is like a "slow motion train wreck".

My exposure to Equities is still at about 53% of my Liquid Assets. I'm still trying to bring it down to about 30% before Jul 24th (Tariffs from Regulation 301).

In the meantime, Hormuz is still closed but everyone seems to believe that there will really be an agreement this time. BTW, CNN mentioned that this is the 39th time that the Administration has mentioned that an agreement is just around the corner!

My trading strategy remains as follows:-
1. To reduce the number of counters from 34 to 15;
2. To reduce my exposure to ADRs and HK Equities; Headwind for ADRs as the US-China Cold War will be ongoing; Headwind for HK Equities as HK Equities needs to be sold from the cross border crackdown;
3. To reduce my exposure to Equities to about 30% by Jul 24 (Tariffs Regulation 301)

The following are some potential risks mentioned in the Business Times:-
1. Oil: Potential surge to US$150 per barrel
2. Markets: Tech exhaustion and defensive pivot
3. Central banks: Return of the hawks
4. Forex: Asian currencies feel the heat
5. Gold: Volatility ahead

We are also now touching a seasonal slump in the markets due to the Summer Holidays and for this year, the FIFA World Cup. (I do not expect to be doing a lot of trading for the next two months).

It will be 1H Window Dressing soon and if the opportunity presents itself, I will be doing some selling into any Window Dressing rally.

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. FIFA World Cup: Jun 11 - Jul 19; Lower Stockmarkets Turnover & Casinos Visit;
2. June 16: BOJ to raise short term rates to 1% from 0.75%; Non-Event?
3. June 16 & 17: FOMC Meeting; Non-Event?
4. June 18: Triple Witching; Do the witches have a gift for you?
5. June 30: IH Window Dressing
6. Jul 01: USMCA Ending; Non-Event?
7. Jul 07: Trump to attend NATO Summit? Non-Event?
8. Jul 11: Johor State Election; Non-Event
9. Jul 24: Restoring Tariffs through Regulation 301;
10. July 28 & 29: FOMC Meeting; Non-Event?
11. Aug 1: Negeri Sembilan State Election; Non-Event


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher (53% from 51% last week from 51% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 30% exposure to Equities before the next crash;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Max 5 Counters Per Country (Not Easy)
a. HK: 28% (11 Counters); Overbought AI & Semiconductors
b. US: 28% (11 Counters); Overbought AI & Semiconductors;
c. Malaysia: 46% (12 Counters); Banks; Elections;
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, only 5 counters from each country for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? USD; CHF? SGD?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities eg. HK and Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to USD & HKD
d. Heavy exposure to China ADRs (Cold War)
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk Off; Data as of every Saturday;

1. WTI Oil. Lower; US$85 from US$91 last week from US$87 two weeks ago;
Support: US$84 (Apr 2026); US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: US$115 (Apr 2026); US$128 (2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Global Demand: 100m bpd
b. Straits of Hormuz: 20m bpd off-line; Japan, Korea, China;
c. G7: Releasing 400m barrels (20 days of Hormuz); 3 Months to release; Max: 1.2b barrels (60 days of Hormuz)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold; Lower; US$4239 from US$4365 from US$4593;
Support: 3400; 2900; 1500; Resistance 5600
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024: US$80b, 20% of Demand
d. Investors: 45% of Gold Demand
e. 30% of mined gold are used for Jewellery
f. 5% of mined gold are for Industrial
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver; Lower; US$68 from US$69 from US$76;
Resistance: US$93; US$117; Support: US$70; US$58 (Dec 2025);
a. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
b. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
c. Solar Industry: 20% of Demand
d. Small position in SLV to follow the story
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper. Higher; US$6.45 from US$6.28 from US$6.42;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 6.20 (Jan 2026)
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 8&start=23

5. Bitcoin. Higher; "63,642 @ 9.15 AM June 13, 2026" from "60,758 @ 7.32 AM June 6, 2026" from "73,424 @ 8.34 AM May 30, 2026";
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030?
c. Demand from Ukraine, Middle East & Venezuela?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$124,000 (Sep 2025)
i. Support: US$54,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk Off (Data as of Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index; Lower; "34 Fear" from "42 Fear" last week from "60 Greed" two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities; Higher; 7431 from 7384 last week from 7580 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 7500
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 19; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio; Current = 40; Sept 1929 = 35; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: PE 30; Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 26,000; Support: 22,100; 21,000; 17,000;
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold = 1.7
i. No Trade

2. HK Equities; Lower; 24658 from 24961 from 25182;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 24,400 (Mar 2026); 19800 (Apr 2025); 15300 (Jan 2024); 14800 (Oct 2022);
b. Resistance: 26,600 (Apr 2026); 28,000 (Jan 2026); 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. 2006 Target: 27,500 MS;
e. Bought Baidu
f. Bought Alibaba

3. Shanghai Equities; Lower; 4032 from 4069 from 4113;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Targeted Stimulus Programs
c. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
d. 2006 Target: 4840 MS;
e. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1684 from 1683 from 1713:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Bought Zetrix
d. Sold 1/3 DNEX


Currencies: Risk On (Data from XE.com on June 12, 2026 @ 3.00 PM)

1. USD to JPY; JPY Flat; 160 from 160 last week from 159 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR; SGD Stronger; 3.16 from 3.13 from 3.10;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD; AUD Flat; 0.70 from 0.70 from 0.72;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD; EUR Stronger; 1.16 from 1.15 from 1.16;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD; HKD Weaker; 7.8360 from 7.8345 from 7.8348;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR: MYR Weaker; 4.06 from 4.03 from 3.97;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD: SGD Stronger; 1.28 from 1.29 from 1.28;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing the finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY; CNY Stronger; 6.76 from 6.77 from 6.77;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 99.80 from 100.07 last week from 99.07 two weeks ago;
Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Lower; 4.48% from 4.54% last week from 4.44% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Lower; 4.09% from 4.16% from 4.00%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Higher; 96.30 from 95.73 last week from 96.77 two weeks ago;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.

[winston]

TOL: How Long Will This Storm Last (Part 19)?

storm.jpg

It's now the 17th week of the war and Oil is still about 18% higher since the start of the war.

In the meantime, the Semiconductor and AI sectors are still very strong.

My exposure to Equities is still at about 53% of my Liquid Assets. I'm still trying to bring it down to about 30% before Jul 24th (Tariffs from Regulation 301) but it's very difficult.

At press-time, I just saw that Iran maybe closing Hormuz again due to Israel's bombing in Lebanon while everyone is in Switzerland.

My trading strategy remains as:-
1. To reduce the number of counters from 34 to 15;
2. To reduce my exposure to ADRs and HK Equities due to the following:-
a. US-China Cold War will be ongoing;
b. Cross Border crackdown
c. Expiry of locked up periods of recent HK IPOs
3. To reduce my exposure to Equities to about 30% by Jul 24 (Tariffs Regulation 301)

It will be 1H Window Dressing soon and if the opportunity presents itself, I will be doing some selling into any Window Dressing rally.

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. FIFA World Cup: Jun 11 - Jul 19; Lower Stockmarkets Turnover & Casinos Visit;
2. June 30: IH Window Dressing
3. Jul 01: USMCA Ending; Non-Event?
4. Jul 07: Trump to attend NATO Summit? Non-Event?
5. Jul 11: Johor State Election; Non-Event
6. Jul 24: Restoring Tariffs through Regulation 301;
7. July 28 & 29: FOMC Meeting; Non-Event?
8. Aug 1: Negeri Sembilan State Election; Non-Event


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Flat (53% from 53% last week from 51% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 30% exposure to Equities before the next crash;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Max 5 Counters Per Country (Not Easy)
a. HK: 33% (12 Counters); Overbought AI & Semiconductors
b. US: 31% (12 Counters); Overbought AI & Semiconductors;
c. Malaysia: 36% (10 Counters); Banks; Elections;
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? USD; CHF? SGD?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities eg. HK and Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to USD & HKD
d. Heavy exposure to China ADRs (Cold War)
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk Off; Data as of every Saturday;

1. WTI Oil. Lower; US$77 from US$85 last week from US$91 two weeks ago;
Support: US$84 (Apr 2026); US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: US$115 (Apr 2026); US$128 (2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Global Demand: 100m bpd
b. Straits of Hormuz: 20m bpd off-line; Japan, Korea, China;
c. G7: Releasing 400m barrels (20 days of Hormuz); 3 Months to release; Max: 1.2b barrels (60 days of Hormuz)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold; Lower; US$4173 from US$4239 from US$4365;
Support: 3400; 2900; 1500; Resistance 5600
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024: US$80b, 20% of Demand
d. Investors: 45% of Gold Demand
e. 30% of mined gold are used for Jewellery
f. 5% of mined gold are for Industrial
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver; Lower; US$65 from US$68 from US$69;
Resistance: US$93; US$117; Support: US$70; US$58 (Dec 2025);
a. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
b. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
c. Solar Industry: 20% of Demand
d. Small position in SLV to follow the story
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper. Lower; US$6.34 from US$6.45 from US$6.28;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 6.20 (Jan 2026)
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 8&start=23

5. Bitcoin. Lower; "63,280 @ 7.05 AM June 20, 2026" from "63,642 @ 9.15 AM June 13, 2026" from "60,758 @ 7.32 AM June 6, 2026";
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030?
c. Demand from Ukraine, Middle East & Venezuela?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$124,000 (Sep 2025)
i. Support: US$54,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk On (Data as of Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index; Higher; "37 Fear" from "34 Fear" last week from "42 Fear" two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities; Higher; 7501 from 7431 last week from 7384 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 7600
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 19; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio; Current = 40; Sept 1929 = 35; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: PE 30; Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 26,000; Support: 22,100; 21,000; 17,000;
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold = 1.7
i. Bought XLE (Energy ETF)

2. HK Equities; Lower; 23924 from 24658 from 24961;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 24,400 (Mar 2026); 19800 (Apr 2025); 15300 (Jan 2024); 14800 (Oct 2022);
b. Resistance: 26,600 (Apr 2026); 28,000 (Jan 2026); 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. 2006 Target: 27,500 MS;
e. Bought Tencent

3. Shanghai Equities; Higher; 4090 from 4032 from 4069;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Targeted Stimulus Programs
c. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
d. 2006 Target: 4840 MS;
e. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1712 from 1684 from 1683:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Sold DNEX


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on June 19, 2026 @ 3.15 PM)

1. USD to JPY; JPY Weaker; 161 from 160 last week from 160 159 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR; SGD Stronger; 3.21 from 3.16 from 3.13;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD; AUD Flat; 0.70 from 0.70 from 0.70;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD; EUR Weaker; 1.14 from 1.16 from 1.15;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD; HKD Weaker; 7.8386 from 7.8360 from 7.8345;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR: MYR Weaker; 4.14 from 4.06 from 4.03;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD: SGD Weaker; 1.29 from 1.28 from 1.29;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing the finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY; CNY Weaker; 6.77 from 6.76 from 6.77;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 100.93 from 99.80 last week from 100.07 two weeks ago;
Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Lower; 4.46% from 4.48% last week from 4.54% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 4.18% from 4.09% from 4.16%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Higher; 96.39 from 96.30 last week from 95.73 two weeks ago;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.

[winston]

TOL: How Long Will This Storm Last (Part 20)?

storm.jpg

It's now the 18th week of the war and Oil is now about 6% higher since the start of the war.

In the meantime, the Semiconductor and AI sectors are still fairly strong despite the dip yesterday.

My exposure to Equities is still at about 54% of my Liquid Assets. I'm still trying to bring it down to about 30% before Jul 24th (Tariffs from Regulation 301) but it's very difficult.

In the meantime, the US has just striked some targets in Iran while Oman has mentioned that a fee should be paid for using the Straits of Hormuz.

My trading strategy remains as:-
1. To reduce the number of counters from 34 to 15;
2. To reduce my exposure to ADRs and HK Equities due to the following:-
a. US-China Cold War will be ongoing;
b. Cross Border crackdown
c. Expiry of locked up periods of recent HK IPOs
3. To reduce my exposure to Equities to about 30% by Jul 24 (Tariffs Regulation 301)

We will have two more days of Window Dressing next week and if the opportunity presents itself, I will be doing some selling into the Window Dressing rally.

For the US markets, it will be Earnings Season again, starting on July 14th. Expectations are quite high and I think that the markets are setting itself up for some disappointments.

The HK market has dropped > 5000 points since early Feb 2026. It's starting to look attractive but I have a feeling that it may continue to be weak due to the following:-
1. Selling from Cross Border Clampdown
2. Selling from Expiry of Locked Up IPOs eg. Knowledge Atlas, Minimax etc.
3. Continuing Cold War between the US and China
4. New round of Tariffs (Regulation 301) starting July 24th
In view of the above, I will need to control my buying or have smaller position size for HK shares and ADRs.

As for the Malaysian market, I'm a bit cautious too. I have a feeling that the foreigners will continue to sell for the following reasons:-
1. They may want to take some of their profits
2. The MYR has appreciated so they will get more when they repatriate the money
3. The General Election is not too far away
If I'm to buy any companies in Malaysia, it will have to be a bigger company that can withstand any Stagflation.

BTW, I have to be also mindful of my Currency Risk as the Indonesian Rupiah, Indian Rupee and the Japanese Yen has depreciated quite a bit. If the US increases interest rates later, there could be another round of depreciation of Non-USD currencies.

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. FIFA World Cup: Jun 11 - Jul 19; Lower Stockmarkets Turnover & Casinos Visit;
2. June 30: IH Window Dressing
3. Jul 01: USMCA Ending; Non-Event?
4. Jul 07: Trump to attend NATO Summit? Non-Event?
5. Jul 11: Johor State Election; Non-Event
6. Jul 24: Restoring Tariffs through Regulation 301;
7. July 28 & 29: FOMC Meeting; Non-Event?
8. Aug 1: Negeri Sembilan State Election; Non-Event


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher (54% from 53% last week from 51% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 30% exposure to Equities before the next crash;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Max 5 Counters Per Country (Not Easy)
a. HK: 33% (13 Counters); Overbought AI & Semiconductors
b. US: 30% (12 Counters); Overbought AI & Semiconductors;
c. Malaysia: 37% (11 Counters); Banks; Elections;
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? USD; CHF? SGD?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities eg. HK and Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to USD & HKD
d. Heavy exposure to China ADRs (Cold War)
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk Off; Data as of every Saturday;

1. WTI Oil. Lower; US$69 from US$77 last week from US$85 two weeks ago;
Support: US$84 (Apr 2026); US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: US$115 (Apr 2026); US$128 (2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Global Demand: 100m bpd
b. Straits of Hormuz: 20m bpd off-line; Japan, Korea, China;
c. G7: Releasing 400m barrels (20 days of Hormuz); 3 Months to release; Max: 1.2b barrels (60 days of Hormuz)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold; Lower; US$4096 from US$4173 from US$4239;
Support: 3400; 2900; 1500; Resistance 5600
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024: US$80b, 20% of Demand
d. Investors: 45% of Gold Demand
e. 30% of mined gold are used for Jewellery
f. 5% of mined gold are for Industrial
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver; Lower; US$59 from US$65 from US$68;
Resistance: US$93; US$117; Support: US$70; US$58 (Dec 2025);
a. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
b. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
c. Solar Industry: 20% of Demand
d. Small position in SLV to follow the story
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper. Lower; US$6.34 from US$6.45 from US$6.28;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 6.20 (Jan 2026)
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 8&start=23

5. Bitcoin. Lower; "59,941 @ 8.47 AM June 27, 2026" from "63,280 @ 7.05 AM June 20, 2026" from "63,642 @ 9.15 AM June 13, 2026";
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030?
c. Demand from Ukraine, Middle East & Venezuela?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$124,000 (Sep 2025)
i. Support: US$54,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk Off (Data as of Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index; Lower; "25 Extreme Fear" from "37 Fear" last week from "34 Fear" two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities; Lower; 7354 from 7501 last week from 7431 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 7600
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 19; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio; Current = 40; Sept 1929 = 35; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: PE 30; Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 26,000; Support: 22,100; 21,000; 17,000;
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold = 1.7
i. No Trade

2. HK Equities; Lower; 22671 from 23924 from 24658;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 24,400 (Mar 2026); 19800 (Apr 2025); 15300 (Jan 2024); 14800 (Oct 2022);
b. Resistance: 26,600 (Apr 2026); 28,000 (Jan 2026); 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. 2006 Target: 27,500 MS;
e. Bought Bank of China

3. Shanghai Equities; Lower; 4028 from 4090 from 4032;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Targeted Stimulus Programs
c. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
d. 2006 Target: 4840 MS;
e. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1668 from 1712 from 1684:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Bought AAX


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on June 26, 2026 @ 4.35 PM)

1. USD to JPY; JPY Weaker; 162 from 161 last week from 160 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to continue rising in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR; SGD Weaker; 3.16 from 3.21 from 3.16;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD; AUD Weaker; 0.69 from 0.70 from 0.70;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD; EUR Flat; 1.14 from 1.14 from 1.16;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD; HKD Weaker; 7.8419 from 7.8386 from 7.8360;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR: MYR Stronger; 4.09 from 4.14 from 4.06;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD: SGD Weaker; 1.30 from 1.29 from 1.28;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing the finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY; CNY Weaker; 6.81 from 6.77 from 6.76;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 101.25 from 100.93 last week from 99.80 two weeks ago;
Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Lower; 4.37% from 4.46% last week from 4.48% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Lower; 4.09% from 4.18% from 4.09%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Higher; 96.22 from 96.39 last week from 96.30 from 95.73 two weeks ago;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.

[winston]

TOL: How Long Will This Storm Last (Part 20)?

storm.jpg

It's now the 19th week of the war and Oil is now only about 6% higher since the start of the war.

High Oil prices are probably no longer an issue unless this Iran War escalates, which is probably a low probability event now.

Therefore, we are back to focusing on the following:-
1. A Company's Earning and
2. The Liquidity in the Markets (Interest Rates etc.)

In the meantime, the Semiconductor and AI sectors, are still fairly strong but volatile. As for myself, I'm starting to Day Trade some Semiconductor & AI counters eg. SK Hynix, which is not that healthy.

My exposure to Equities has risen to about 60% of my Liquid Assets. It's getting harder and harder to bring it down to about 30% before Jul 24th (Tariffs from Regulation 301).

My trading strategy remains as:-
1. To try to reduce the number of counters from 40 to 15;
2. To try to reduce my exposure to ADRs and HK Equities due to the following:-
a. US-China Cold War will be ongoing;
b. Cross Border crackdown
c. Expiry of locked up periods of recent HK IPOs eg. Knowledge Atlas and Minimax
d. Taxation investigation of various H Shares and ADR companies
3. To try to reduce my exposure to Equities to about 30% by Jul 24 (Tariffs Regulation 301)

For the US markets, it will be Earnings Season again, starting on July 14th:-
1. FactSet currently expects the S&P 500 to achieve 28% average earnings growth in the first quarter – and then 20%, 23% and 21% average earnings growth in the second, third and fourth quarters respectively. For calendar year 2026, estimates call for 21%
2. The "experts" are now watching the Banks for an early clue on where the US markets would be heading. If the Banks are strong then it's very likely that the US markets will continue to rally.
3. Expectations are now quite high and the markets may be setting itself up for some disappointments
4. Various experts including Jeremy Grantham and Michael Burry, have been warning about a Stock-Market crash over the past week especially in the Semiconductor & AI sector.

The HK market has dropped > 5000 points since early Feb 2026 and I'm starting to add to my positions in HK. However, I need to remind myself to control my buying and to have smaller positions for the reasons mentioned above.

As for the Malaysian market, I'm a bit cautious too for the following reasons:-
1. The MYR has appreciated so the foreigners are getting more when they repatriate their profits
2. The General Election is not too far away
3. If I'm to buy any companies in Malaysia, it will have to be a bigger company that can withstand some Stagflation
4. The Johor and Negeri Sembilan State Elections will be a taste of what's coming.

I'm still mindful of my Currency Risk as the Indonesian Rupiah, Indian Rupee and the Japanese Yen have depreciated a lot.

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. FIFA World Cup: Jun 11 - Jul 19; Lower Stockmarkets Turnover & Casinos Visit;
2. Jul 07: Trump to attend NATO Summit? Non-Event?
3. Jul 11: Johor State Election; Non-Event
4. Jul 24: Restoring Tariffs through Regulation 301;
5. July 28 & 29: FOMC Meeting; Non-Event?
6. Aug 1: Negeri Sembilan State Election; Non-Event


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher (60% from 53% last week from 53% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 30% exposure to Equities before the next crash;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Max 5 Counters Per Country (Not Easy)
a. HK: 37% (16 Counters); Overbought AI & Semiconductors
b. US: 29% (13 Counters); Overbought AI & Semiconductors;
c. Malaysia: 34% (11 Counters); Banks; Elections;
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? USD; CHF? SGD?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities eg. HK and Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to USD & HKD
d. Heavy exposure to China ADRs (Cold War)
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk On; Data as of every Saturday;

1. WTI Oil. Flat; US$69 from US$69 last week from US$77 two weeks ago;
Support: US$65 (Feb 2026); US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: US$115 (Apr 2026); US$128 (2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Global Demand: 100m bpd
b. Straits of Hormuz: 20m bpd off-line; Japan, Korea, China;
c. G7: Releasing 400m barrels (20 days of Hormuz); 3 Months to release; Max: 1.2b barrels (60 days of Hormuz)
d. Vested in XLE and CNOOC (883)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold; Higher; US$4187 from US$4096 from US$4173;
Support: 3400; 2900; 1500; Resistance 5600
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024: US$80b, 20% of Demand
d. Investors: 45% of Gold Demand
e. 30% of mined gold are used for Jewellery
f. 5% of mined gold are for Industrial
g. Vested in Zhaojin (1818)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver; Higher; US$63 from US$59 from US$65;
Resistance: US$93; US$117; Support: US$70; US$58 (Dec 2025);
a. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
b. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
c. Solar Industry: 20% of Demand
d. Vested in SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper. Lower; US$6.22 from US$6.34 from US$6.45;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 6.20 (Jan 2026)
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 8&start=23

5. Bitcoin. Higher; "62,531 @ 7.10 AM July 4, 2026" from "59,941 @ 8.47 AM June 27, 2026" from "63,280 @ 7.05 AM June 20, 2026"
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030?
c. Demand from Ukraine, Middle East & Venezuela?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$124,000 (Sep 2025)
i. Support: US$54,000
j. Vested in IBIT (Bitcoin ETF)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk Off (Data as of Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index; Higher; "32 Fear" from "25 Extreme Fear" last week from "37 Fear" two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities; Higher; 7483 from 7354 last week from 7501 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6850; 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 7600
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 19; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio; Current = 40; Sept 1929 = 35; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: PE 30; Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 26,000; Support: 22,100; 21,000; 17,000;
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold = 1.7
i. Bought SMH (Semiconductor ETF)
j. Bought DRAM (Memory ETF)
k. Bought IBIT (Bitcoin ETF)
l. Sold Grab
m. Sold SEA (SE)

2. HK Equities; Higher; 23350 from 22671 from 23924;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 24,400 (Mar 2026); 19800 (Apr 2025); 15300 (Jan 2024); 14800 (Oct 2022);
b. Resistance: 26,600 (Apr 2026); 28,000 (Jan 2026); 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. 2006 Target: 27,500 MS;
e. Bought ICBC
f. Bought Nongfu Spring
g. Bought CNOOC
h. Added to 3033 (Hang Seng Tech ETF)
i. Traded SK Hynix ETF 2x (7709)

3. Shanghai Equities; Higher; 4044 from 4028 from 4090;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Targeted Stimulus Programs
c. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
d. 2006 Target: 4840 MS;
e. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1679 from 1668 from 1712:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. No Trade


Currencies: Risk On (Data from XE.com on Jul 4, 2026 @ 7.12 AM)

1. USD to JPY; JPY Stronger; 161 from 162 last week from 161 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to continue rising in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR; SGD Weaker; 3.15 from 3.16 from 3.21;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD; AUD Flat; 0.69 from 0.69 from 0.70;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD; EUR Flat; 1.14 from 1.14 from 1.14;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD; HKD Weaker; 7.8443 from 7.8419 from 7.8386;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR: MYR Stronger; 4.07 from 4.09 from 4.14;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.88 to 4.28
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD: SGD Stronger; 1.29 from 1.30 from 1.29;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing the finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY; CNY Stronger; 6.78 from 6.81 from 6.77;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 100.88 from 101.25 last week from 100.93 two weeks ago;
Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 4.49% from 4.37% last week from 4.46% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 4.14% from 4.09% from 4.18%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Lower; 95.99 from 96.22 last week from 96.39 two weeks ago;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.

[winston]

TOL: How Long Will This Storm Last (Part 21)?

storm.jpg

It's now the 20th week of the war and Oil has now risen 3% from last week, to about 9% higher since the start of the war.

Just when you thought that the war is over, they are exchanging blows again while trying to find an excuse to negotiate a ceasefire.

Therefore, we are back to focusing on the coming US earnings season.

The Semiconductor and AI sectors are still fairly strong and SK Hynix had a successful IPO in the US.

UBS is now recommending people to short SK Hynix in Korea while buying the US ADR. It's also interesting to note that the Short Selling Ratio of the SK Hynix ETF 7709 (2x leverage) is at 40%.

My exposure to Equities has dropped to about 53% (from 60% last week), as I managed to sell some of my HK holdings when the HK market spiked up on Wednesday.

My trading strategy remains as:-
1. Trying to reduce the number of counters from the current 34 to 15; Sold 6 counters this week;
2. Trying to reduce my exposure to ADRs and HK Equities due to the following:-
a. Ongoing US-China Cold War;
b. Cross Border crackdown
c. Expiry of locked up periods of recent HK IPOs eg. Knowledge Atlas and Minimax
d. Taxation investigation of various H Shares and ADR companies
3. Trying to reduce my exposure to Equities to about 30% by Jul 24 (Tariffs Regulation 301)

For the US markets, it will be Earnings Season again, starting on July 14th:-
1. The "experts" are watching the Banks for an early clue on where the US markets would be heading.
2. FactSet currently expects the S&P 500 to achieve 20% earnings growth in the second quarter – and then 23% and 21% average earnings growth in the third and fourth quarters, respectively.
3. For calendar year 2026, the earning estimates call for 21%.

The HK market was fairly strong and rose about 800 points this week with Alibaba being quite strong. I have taken the opportunity to sell some of my HK shares and will continue to do so when the opportunity arises.

As for the Malaysian market, I'm a bit cautious too for the following reasons:-
1. The MYR has appreciated so the foreigners are getting more when they repatriate their profits. YTD, the foreigners have sold about MYR 3b of malaysian Equities already
2. The General Election is not too far away
If I'm to buy any companies in Malaysia, it will have to be a bigger company, that can withstand some Stagflation. The Johor and Negeri Sembilan State Elections will be a taste of what's coming.

I'm still mindful of my Currency Risk as the Indonesian Rupiah, Indian Rupee and the Japanese Yen have depreciated a lot. It's interesting that one is now no longer allowed to buy any foreign currency on Moo Moo unless one has already completed the buy order.

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. FIFA World Cup: Jun 11 - Jul 19; Lower Stockmarkets Turnover & Casinos Visit;
2. Jul 24: Restoring Tariffs through Regulation 301;
3. July 28 & 29: FOMC Meeting; Non-Event?
4. Aug 1: Negeri Sembilan State Election; Non-Event?
5. Sep 15 & 16: FOMC; 25 bps Rate Hike?
6. Sep 24: Xi Visiting US; Bought Soyabeans; Maybe another 200 Boeing Planes?
7. Oct 27 & 28: FOMC;


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower (53% from 60% last week from 53% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 30% exposure to Equities before the next crash;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Max 5 Counters Per Country (Not Easy)
a. HK: 34% (11 Counters); Overbought AI & Semiconductors
b. US: 30% (12 Counters); Overbought AI & Semiconductors;
c. Malaysia: 36% (11 Counters); Banks; Elections;
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? USD; CHF? SGD?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities eg. HK and Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to USD & HKD
d. Heavy exposure to China ADRs (Cold War)
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk On; Data as of every Saturday;

1. WTI Oil. Higher; US$71 from US$69 last week from US$69 two weeks ago;
Support: US$65 (Feb 2026); US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: US$115 (Apr 2026); US$128 (2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Global Demand: 100m bpd
b. Straits of Hormuz: 20m bpd off-line; Japan, Korea, China;
c. G7: Releasing 400m barrels (20 days of Hormuz); 3 Months to release; Max: 1.2b barrels (60 days of Hormuz)
d. US SPR: 320m barrels, lowest since 1983
e. Vested in XLE (Energy ETF)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold; Lower; US$4114 from US$4187 from US$4096;
Support: 3400; 2900; 1500; Resistance 5600
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024: US$80b, 20% of Demand
d. Investors: 45% of Gold Demand
e. 30% of mined gold are used for Jewellery
f. 5% of mined gold are for Industrial
g, Vested in Zhaojin (1818)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver; Lower; US$60 from US$63 from US$59;
Resistance: US$93; US$117; Support: US$70; US$58 (Dec 2025);
a. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
b. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
c. Solar Industry: 20% of Demand
d. Vested in SLV (Silver ETF)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper. Higher; US$6.28 from US$6.22 from US$6.34;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 6.20 (Jan 2026)
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 8&start=23

5. Bitcoin. Higher; "64155 @ 8.00 AM July 11, 2026" from "62,531 @ 7.10 AM July 4, 2026" from "59,941 @ 8.47 AM June 27, 2026";
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030?
c. Demand from Ukraine, Middle East & Venezuela?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m; Max 21m Bitcoins;
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$124,000 (Sep 2025)
i. Support: US$54,000
j. Vested in IBIT (Bitcoin ETF)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk Off (Data as of Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index; Higher; "49 Neutral" from "32 Fear" last week from "25 Extreme Fear" two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities; Higher; 7575 from 7483 last week from 7354 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6850; 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 7600
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 19; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio; Current = 40; Sept 1929 = 35; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: PE 30; Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 26,000; Support: 22,100; 21,000; 17,000;
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold = 1.7
i. Sold DRAM (Memory ETF)

2. HK Equities; Higher; 24175 from 23350 from 22671;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 22,675 (Jun 2026); 19800 (Apr 2025); 15300 (Jan 2024); 14800 (Oct 2022);
b. Resistance: 26,600 (Apr 2026); 28,000 (Jan 2026); 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. 2006 Target: 27,500 MS;
e. Bought CATL
f. Sold 2/3 Alibaba
g. Sold ICBC
h. Sold Nongfu Spring
i. Sold CNOOC
j. Sold New Oriental Education
k. Sold Tencent
l. Sold Bank of China
m. Traded SK Hynix ETF 2x (7709)

3. Shanghai Equities; Lower; 3996 from 4044 from 4028;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Targeted Stimulus Programs
c. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
d. 2006 Target: 4840 MS;
e. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1691 from 1679 from 1668:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Sold Illiquid Counter


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Jul 11, 2026 @ 8.10 AM)

1. USD to JPY; JPY Weaker; 162 from 161 last week from 162 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to continue rising in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR; SGD Flat; 3.15 from 3.15 from 3.16;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD; AUD Stronger; 0.70 from 0.69 from 0.69;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD; EUR Flat; 1.14 from 1.14 from 1.14;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD; HKD Stronger; 7.8400 from 7.8443 from 7.8419;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR: MYR Flat; 4.07 from 4.07 from 4.09;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.88 to 4.28
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD: SGD Flat; 1.29 from 1.29 from 1.30;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing the finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY; CNY Flat; 6.78 from 6.78 from 6.81;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 100.97 from 100.88 last week from 101.25 two weeks ago;
Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 4.56% from 4.49% last week from 4.37% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 4.21% from 4.14% from 4.09%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Lower; 95.93 from 95.99 last week from 96.22 two weeks ago;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.

[winston]

TOL: How Long Will This Storm Last (Part 22)?

storm.jpg

It's now the 21st week of the Iran war and Oil has risen in the past week to about 26% from the start of the war. At press-time, they are still continuing to exchange blows.

My exposure to Equities has again jumped to 62% from 53% last week, as there were some "bargains" this week that I could not resist. (Whenever there's a major correction, I would normally like to initiate a position to follow their story eg. Silver, Gold, Bitcoin, Rare Earth and now Semiconductor & AI).

The following are my random thoughts on the various markets:-

1. US: US earnings season in underway. The US Banks are doing well but the Semiconductors and AI plays, are starting to correct, probably due to the high expectations. For this Earnings season, it's a bit dangerous to try to front-run the announcements. It's better to wait for the announcements first before doing anything. It's also interesting to note that US executives are selling shares at the second-fastest pace in more than 20 years.

2. HK: Just when you thought that it's safe to nibble at the HK counters, a steep correction appears. I'm now demanding a higher margin of safety for my HK counters before buying anything in HK & China.

3. Malaysia: I will be monitoring the banks for their coming Dividends but I have a feeling that their NIM maybe be narrowing and that the NPLs will slowly be climbing up.

In the meantime, I need to remind myself to raise some Cash for the following reasons:-
1. The Traders are away for their Summer Holidays
2. We still have the Ukraine War; (What will happen if Russia starts using Nuclear Weapons?)
3. The Iran War is ongoing. (What will happen when Oil reaches US$150?)
4. We have a new Fed Chairman; (What will happen when he starts cleaning up the books?)
5. Trump is starting to poke China in the eyes with his comments on Communism and Election Fraud. (What will happen if Xi decides not to visit the US in Sep?)

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. FIFA World Cup: Jun 11 - Jul 19; Lower Stockmarkets Turnover & Casinos Visit;
2. Jul 24: Restoring Tariffs through Regulation 301;
3. July 28 & 29: FOMC Meeting; Non-Event?
4. Aug 1: Negeri Sembilan State Election; Non-Event?
5. Sep 15 & 16: FOMC; 25 bps Rate Hike?
6. Sep 24: Xi Visiting US; Bought Soyabeans; Maybe another 200 Boeing Planes?
7. Oct 27 & 28: FOMC;


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower (62% from 53% last week from 60% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 30% exposure to Equities before the next crash;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Max 5 Counters Per Country (Not Easy)
a. HK: 40% (13 Counters); Overbought AI & Semiconductors
b. US: 32% (14 Counters); Overbought AI & Semiconductors;
c. Malaysia: 28% (11 Counters); Banks; Elections;
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? USD; CHF? SGD?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities eg. HK and Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to USD & HKD
d. Heavy exposure to China ADRs (Cold War)
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk On; Data as of every Saturday;

1. WTI Oil. Higher; US$82 from US$71 last week from US$69 two weeks ago;
Support: US$65 (Feb 2026); US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: US$115 (Apr 2026); US$128 (2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Global Demand: 100m bpd
b. Straits of Hormuz: 20m bpd off-line; Japan, Korea, China;
c. G7: Releasing 400m barrels (20 days of Hormuz); 3 Months to release; Max: 1.2b barrels (60 days of Hormuz)
d. US SPR: 320m barrels, lowest since 1983
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold; Lower; US$4023 from US$4114 from US$4187;
Support: 3400; 2900; 1500; Resistance 5600
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024: US$80b, 20% of Demand
d. Investors: 45% of Gold Demand
e. 30% of mined gold are used for Jewellery
f. 5% of mined gold are for Industrial
g, Vested in Zhaojin (1818)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver; Lower; US$56 from US$60 from US$63;
Resistance: US$93; US$117; Support: US$70; US$58 (Dec 2025);
a. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
b. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
c. Solar Industry: 20% of Demand
d. Vested in SLV (Silver ETF)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper. Lower; US$6.27 from US$6.28 from US$6.22;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 6.20 (Jan 2026)
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 8&start=23

5. Bitcoin. Lower; "64,002 @ 7.37 AM July 18, 2026" from "64155 @ 8.00 AM July 11, 2026" from "62,531 @ 7.10 AM July 4, 2026";
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030?
c. Demand from Ukraine, Middle East & Venezuela?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m; Max 21m Bitcoins;
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$124,000 (Sep 2025)
i. Support: US$54,000
j. Vested in IBIT (Bitcoin ETF)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk Off (Data as of Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index; Lower; "37 Fear' from "49 Neutral" last week from "32 Fear" two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities; Lower; 7458 from 7575 last week from 7483 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6850; 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 7600
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 19; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio; Current = 40; Sept 1929 = 35; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: PE 30; Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 26,000; Support: 22,100; 21,000; 17,000;
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold = 1.7
i. Bought SEA (SE)
j. Bought GRAB
k. Bought REMX (Rare Earth ETF)
l. Sold XLE (Energy ETF)

2. HK Equities; Higher; 24505 from 24175 from 23350;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 23,825, 22,500 (Jun 2026); 21550; 19800 (Apr 2025); 15300 (Jan 2024); 14800 (Oct 2022);
b. Resistance: 24,550; 25,050; 26,600 (Apr 2026); 28,000 (Jan 2026); 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. 2006 Target: 27,500 MS;
e. Bought Tencent
f. Bought Baidu
g. Bought SMIC
h. Traded SK Hynix ETF 2x (7709)

3. Shanghai Equities; Lower; 3764 from 3996 from 4044;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Targeted Stimulus Programs
c. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
d. 2006 Target: 4840 MS;
e. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1731 from 1691 from 1679:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Sold 1/2 Illiquid Counter


Currencies: Risk On (Data from XE.com on Jul 18, 2026 @ 8.00 AM)

1. USD to JPY; JPY Flat; 162 from 162 last week from 161 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to continue rising in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR; SGD Stronger; 3.17 from 3.15 from 3.15;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD; AUD Flat; 0.70 from 0.70 from 0.69;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD; EUR Flat; 1.14 from 1.14 from 1.14;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD; HKD Weaker; 7.8404 from 7.8400 from 7.8443;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR: MYR Weaker; 4.10 from 4.09 from 4.07;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.88 to 4.28
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD: SGD Flat; 1.29 from 1.29 from 1.29;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing the finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY; CNY Flat; 6.78 from 6.78 from 6.78;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 100.75 from 100.97 last week from 100.88 two weeks ago;
Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Flat; 4.55% from 4.56% last week from 4.49% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Lower; 4.18% from 4.21% from 4.14%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Higher; 95.98 from 95.93 last week from 95.99 two weeks ago;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.

[winston]

TOL: How Long Will This Storm Last (Part 23)?

storm.jpg

It's now the 22nd week of the Iran war and Oil has risen over the pask week, to about 32% from the start of the war.

At press-time, they are still fighting while the Houthis has now sealed up the Red Sea. However, there are reports mentioning that China is now pushing for the end of the Iran War and Oil has dropped slightly.

The following are my thoughts on the various markets:-

1. US: Earnings season is underway and the Tech companies are being punished for excessive AI spending. I have been mentioning about Regulation 301 over the past few weeks and as expected, Regulation 301 is now being used to impose tariffs again. However, the level of 12.5% this time is not too excessive and can be absorbed easily. So it's probably a non-event for the time being.

2. HK: The Poliburo will be meeting soon and the markets are expecting the National Team to support the China market after the meeting. There could be some spill-overs to HK from the China markets. If there's a rally in HK, I would be selling.

3. Malaysia: I'm monitoring the banks for their coming Dividends. The market sentiment is quite weak though.

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. End July: China Poliburo Meeting; Will they be supporting the market?
2. July 28 & 29: FOMC Meeting; Non-Event?
3. Aug 1: Negeri Sembilan State Election; Non-Event?
4. Sep 15 & 16: FOMC; 25 bps Rate Hike?
5. Sep 24: Xi Visiting US; Bought Soyabeans; Maybe another 200 Boeing Planes?
6. Oct 27 & 28: FOMC;


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower (57% from 62% last week from 53% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 30% exposure to Equities before the next crash;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Max 5 Counters Per Country (Not Easy)
a. HK: 34% (11 Counters); Overbought AI & Semiconductors; Poliburo Support;
b. US: 36% (15 Counters); Overbought AI & Semiconductors; Laggard Mag 7;
c. Malaysia: 30% (11 Counters); Banks; Elections;
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? USD; CHF? SGD?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities eg. HK and Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to USD & HKD
d. Heavy exposure to China ADRs (Cold War)
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk On; Data as of every Saturday;

1. WTI Oil. Higher; US$86 from US$82 last week from US$71 two weeks ago;
Support: US$65 (Feb 2026); US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: US$115 (Apr 2026); US$128 (2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Global Demand: 100m bpd
b. Straits of Hormuz: 20m bpd off-line; Japan, Korea, China;
c. G7: Releasing 400m barrels (20 days of Hormuz); 3 Months to release; Max: 1.2b barrels (60 days of Hormuz)
d. US SPR: 320m barrels, lowest since 1983
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold; Higher; US$4056 from US$4023 from US$4114;
Support: 3400; 2900; 1500; Resistance 5600
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024: US$80b, 20% of Demand
d. Investors: 45% of Gold Demand
e. 30% of mined gold are used for Jewellery
f. 5% of mined gold are for Industrial
g, Vested in Zhaojin (1818)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver; Higher; US$58 from US$56 from US$60;
Resistance: US$93; US$100; Support: US$70; US$58 (Dec 2025);
a. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
b. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
c. Solar Industry: 20% of Demand
d. Vested in SLV (Silver ETF)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper. Higher; US$6.34 from US$6.27 from US$6.28;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 6.20 (Jan 2026)
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 8&start=23

5. Bitcoin. Higher; "64,159 @ 8.06 AM July 25, 2026" from "64,002 @ 7.37 AM July 18, 2026" from "64155 @ 8.00 AM July 11, 2026";
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030?
c. Demand from Ukraine, Middle East & Venezuela?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m; Max 21m Bitcoins;
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$124,000 (Sep 2025)
i. Support: US$54,000
j. Vested in IBIT (Bitcoin ETF)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk Off (Data as of Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index; Higher; "39 Fear" from "37 Fear' last week from "49 Neutral" two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities; Lower; 7412 from 7458 last week from 7575 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6850; 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 7600
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 19; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio; Current = 40; Sept 1929 = 35; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: PE 30; Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 26,000; Support: 22,100; 21,000; 17,000;
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold = 1.7
i. Bought Alphabet (GOOGL)

2. HK Equities; Higher; 24963 from 24505 from 24175;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 23,825, 22,500 (Jun 2026); 21550; 19800 (Apr 2025); 15300 (Jan 2024); 14800 (Oct 2022);
b. Resistance: 24,550; 25,050; 26,600 (Apr 2026); 28,000 (Jan 2026); 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. 2006 Target: 27,500 MS;
e. Added to Alibaba
f. Sold SMIC
g. Sold CATL
h. Traded Tencent

3. Shanghai Equities; Higher; 3814 from 3764 from 3996;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Targeted Stimulus Programs
c. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
d. 2006 Target: 4840 MS;
e. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1701 from 1731 from 169:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. No Trade


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Jul 25, 2026 @ 8.20 AM)

1. USD to JPY; JPY Weaker; 164 from 162 last week from 162 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to continue rising in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR; SGD Flat; 3.17 from 3.17 from 3.15;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD; AUD Flat; 0.70 from 0.70 from 0.70;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD; EUR Flat; 1.14 from 1.14 from 1.14;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD; HKD Weaker; 7.8422 from 7.8404 from 7.8400;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR: MYR Stronger; 4.09 from 4.10 from 4.09;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.88 to 4.28
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD: SGD Flat; 1.29 from 1.29 from 1.29;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing the finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY; CNY Stronger; 6.77 from 6.78 from 6.78;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 101.47 from 100.75 last week from 100.97 two weeks ago;
Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 4.68% from 4.55% last week from 4.56% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 4.34% from 4.18% from 4.21%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Lower; 95.39 from 95.98 last week from 95.93 two weeks ago;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.