Grab

[winston]

not vested

Deliveroo gone, valuation parity with Uber is an opportunity

Deliveroo’s exit from Singapore in March 2026 to consolidate Grab’s dominance in the food delivery market.

GRAB’ on-demand business is trading at 13x EV/adj EBITDA similar to UBER despite not facing the regulatory & robo-taxi risks faced by UBER, and offering 30% adj EBITDA CAGR vs 24% CAGR by UBER.

Maintain BUY with unchanged TP of USD7.55

Source: DBS

https://www.dbs.com/insightsdirect/comp ... ecid=29760

[winston]

not vested

A Victorious Star, Priced Like a Fallen Comet?

An AI-driven industry shift may impact GRAB’s single-vertical peers, further strengthening GRAB’s market position.

While UBER’s recent decline reflects intense regulatory scrutiny and competitive risk from robotaxi players, GRAB does not face such risks.

Trading near its -2SD valuation, GRAB’s premium to UBER has narrowed to 8% vs 30% historically, indicating an attractive entry point.

BUY with a revised TP of USD5.93.

Potential fintech adj EBITDA breakeven in 2H26F is a key catalyst, leading to a group adj EBITDA CAGR of 46% over FY25-27F.

GRAB’s premium to Sea Ltd has slightly narrowed to 26% vs 34% historically.

Source: DBS

https://www.dbs.com/insightsdirect/comp ... ecid=29930

[winston]

not vested

Key Takeaways from Group Call

Grab sees limited risk from agentic AI, citing its strong driver and merchant supply network, and control over platform APIs and sees AI as an efficiency driver.

Fintech breakeven is targeted for 2H26, with long-term EBITDA margins potentially reaching 30–40%, supported by lending scale and operating leverage.

Autonomous vehicle deployment in early-stage, with 11 AVs in Singapore. Unlike the US, most drivers are locals in Singapore so ride-hailers need to manage job-transition

We maintain BUY with an unchanged TP of USD5.93.

Grab has seen a compression in valuation multiple with on-demand business trading at 13x EV/adj EBITDA, same as Uber despite Grab’s far superior growth prospects.

Source: DBS

https://www.dbs.com/insightsdirect/comp ... ecid=30027

[winston]

Taiwan: Grab’s next bite

Grab has announced it will acquire Foodpanda Taiwan for US$600m and expects the deal to be concluded in 2H26F, subject to regulatory approvals.

Grab guided for the business to break even by FY27F and contribute adj. EBITDA of at least US$60m for FY28F (4% of our FY28F forecast).

We view the deal as positive with long-term growth from expansion in a high quality market and manageable near-term integration risks.

Source: CGS

https://rfs.cgsi.com/api/download?file= ... 7951636C29

[winston]

not vested

Costs manageable, demand in focus

Asset-light model limits direct fuel cost exposure but higher fuel cost may tighten driver supply.

Grab may step in with higher fuel subsidies and partially pass through cost increases via fare adjustments; this could support margins but risks demand.

We believe Grab should be able to absorb near-term cost pressure, with the potential to defend or even gain market share given its strong balance sheet.

TP: US$6.25

Source: CGS

https://rfs.cgsi.com/api/download?file= ... 8bd54701eb

[winston]

Grab Holdings (GRAB US) 1Q looks solid; Fuel a key watchpoint for rest of 2026

Solid 1Q; intact thesis and attractive valuation

We expect Grab to deliver a resilient 1Q26 (report due 4 May), with GMV up 20% YoY, revenue up 18% YoY and adjusted EBITDA up 44% YoY to USD153m - c.6% ahead of the street.

While 2Q could see some pressure from fuel-price inflation, our broader thesis is intact.

Grab is chugging along well in a rational competitive environment, is on the right side of the AI equation (limited risk of AI disintermediation in on-demand services while AI creates opportunities in the fintech space), and remains a potential beneficiary of AV adoption.

Trading at <10x 2027 EV/EBITDA, valuations are at a 20% discount to Uber while adj. EBITDA CAGR at 42% is almost double that of Uber.

We see the 26% YTD correction as a buying opportunity.

We retain our USD6.48 TP based on a SOTP valuation.

Source: Maybank

https://mkefactsettd.maybank-ke.com/PDFS/525894.pdf

[winston]

Kicking the tyres

Mobility segment: 5-12-min wait times across SG/MY/ID indicate no driver shortage;

MY/ID government fuel subsidies limit cost pressure, fare hikes.

Grab is scaling AI to enhance efficiency, basket size and customer stickiness, which should support its long-term monetisation.

1Q26F earnings forecast in line with consensus, with stable margins yoy.

Reiterate Add given limited fuel exposure and cost pass-through support.

TP: US$ 6.25

Source: CGS

https://rfs.cgsi.com/api/download?file= ... 4F4061BA4C

[winston]

not vested

Indonesia limits commission to 8%; 2-5% impact on adj EBITDA

Indonesia policy shock; Details still evolving Indonesia has proposed an 8% cap on ride-hailing commissions (vs ~20% currently), with implementation details still being finalised.

Based on initial guidance and Grab’s Bahasa release, the cap is likely to be limited to bike (2W) mobility at this stage, with no clarity yet on timing, scope expansion, or treatment of platform fees.

The regulation appears part of a broader push to improve driver welfare, including potential mandates on social security and health benefits.

Importantly, delivery platforms are not directly impacted on commissions.

Source: Maybank

https://mkefactsettd.maybank-ke.com/PDFS/529812.pdf

[winston]

not vested

Grab’s Q1 2026 earnings surges 466.7 per cent to US$136 million

by Benjamin Cher

Revenue for Q1 2026 was higher at US$955 million from US$773 million a year prior.

Source: Business Times

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/compan ... 36-million

[winston]

not vested

Strong execution; rising regulatory pressure

1Q26 results beat expectations, with management maintaining its FY26F adjusted EBITDA guidance of US$700m-720m despite macro uncertainties.

We assume an 8% commission cap for Indonesia 2W in FY27-28F, following the regulation signed by President Prabowo, pending implementation details.

Reiterate Add, with a lower SOP-based TP of US$4.50, on lower EBITDA and lower multiple for the mobility and delivery sector in line with peers.

Source: CGS

https://rfs.cgsi.com/api/download?file= ... 4C77704D7E