Winston's Investment Ideas 06 (Aug 22 - Dec 26)

[winston]

TOL @ Oct 19, 2025

Train Wreck.jpg

Slow-Motion Train Wreck?

The US markets recovered slightly this week from TACO's outburst a week ago.

It's interesting to note that TACO has now mentioned that the 100% Tariff is not sustainable. So why bring it up in the first place? To bring the markets down? Why?

HK performed below expectations too especially when the Fourth Plenum is going to be held in Beijing next week. Was the "National Team" buying while the army of retail investors were selling?

Anyway, are we now witnessing a slow-motion train wreck?

Can the expected reduction in interest rates on Oct 29th, be able to really save the US economy, that is currently reeling from Stagflation, Tariffs, Government Shutdown, Elevated Interest Rates, Unemployment, ICE Raids etc.

And what could speed up the slow-motion train wreck?

Is the US$19b losses in Cryptos enough to generate some Margin Calls to cause the "House of Card" to tumble? US$19b looks like a small number though. Having said that, Bitcoin has lost about 16% very quickly.

What about the bad loans at the US Regional Banks? Zions, Western Alliance and Jefferies were all hit this week. Even JPM lost US$170m from Tricolor. However, the cockroaches are not appearing yet.

As for the Tariffs, everyone is expecting TACO to de-escalate after escalating the issue. No new issue here either.

However, with any "Black Swan" event, it's those Risk that you have not considered, that could wipe you out quickly. Anyway, when the "Subprime Crisis" and the "Asian Financial Crisis" started, nobody expected it to snow-ball into such a big issue.

Therefore, it's good to remind myself to be "Adequately Diversified" and to avoid the "Overcrowded Trades".

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. Tariffs: Semiconductors; Drugs; 100% China etc.
2. US Cities: Why are National Guards being deployed?
3. Oct 20 - 23: China Fourth Plenum
4. Oct 28 - 29: US FOMC Meeting; 50 bps cut?
5. Oct 29 - Nov 01: Trump & Xi Meeting?
6. Nov 05: US Tariff (Supreme Court)


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower (35% from 37% from 40% of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. HK: 32% (9 Counters); Tariffs;
b. US: 31% (8 Counters); Stagflation?
c. Malaysia: 37% (12 Counters); Banks Attractive?
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off; Data as of every Saturday;

1. WTI Oil. Lower; US$58 from US$59 last week from US$61 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak Global Demand: Surplus 2m bpd?
b. SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left; Trump replenishing SPR (US$20b);
c. OPEC+: Increasing output to regain market share
d. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
e. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 57
f. Drill Baby Drill = Lower Oil Prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold; Higher; US$4213 from US$4000 from US$3908;
Support: 2995; 2955; 2930; 1490; Resistance 4000
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Will Central Banks' demand (20%) > Retail Gold supply (80%)?
d. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024 (US$80b)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver; Higher; US$50 from US$47 from US$48;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 91; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper. Higher; US$4.97 from US$4.89 from US$5.11;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 5.10
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Bitcoin. Lower; US$106,641 ( as of Oct 18, 2025 @ 7.40 AM) from US$112,670 last week from US$122,070 two weeks ago;
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$127,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk Off (Data as of Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index; Lower; "27 Fear" from "29 Fear" last week from "54 Neutral" two weeks ago
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities; Higher; 6664 from 6553 last week from 6716 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 7000
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 22; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 213; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 24,380; Support: 22.370; 18000, 17435
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold: 1.9
i. No Trade

2. HK Equities; Lower; 25247 from 26282 last week from 27141 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800 (Apr 2025); 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 27300 (Oct 2025); 30,000; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. Bought 3033 (HS Tech ETF)
e. Bought 3416 (HSCEI Covered Call ETF)

3. Shanghai Equities; Lower; 3840 from 3894 from 3883;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
e. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1607 from 1626 from 1635:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1550, 1580; 1605; 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Sold Hong Leong Bank
d. Sold DNEX Warrants


Currencies: Risk On (Data from XE.com on Oct 18 @ 11.10 AM)

1. USD to JPY; JPY Stronger; 151 from 153 last week from 148 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR; SGD Stronger; 3.26 from 3.25 from 3.27;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. When to convert some SGD to MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD; AUD Weaker; 0.65 from 0.66 from 0.66;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD; EUR Stronger; 1.17 from 1.16 from 1.17;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD; HKD Stronger; 7.7679 from 7.7814 from 7.7812;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR: MYR Weaker; 4.23 from 4.22 from 4.22;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD: SGD Flat; 1.30 from 1.30 from 1.29;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY; CNY Weaker; 7.13 from 7.12 from 7.12;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD; Weaker; 98.54 from 99.38 last week from 97.88 two weeks ago; Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. The number of land parcels that sold for at least 20 per cent above the asking price accounted for 37 per cent of deals this year.
b. That compares with just 14 per cent for all of last year and 4.6 per cent in 2023.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
b. New projects declined 46% in 1H 2025
c. Increased of 19% in 1H 2025 on unsold properties
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Lower; 4.01% from 4.05% from 4.12%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Lower; 3.46% from 3.52% from 3.58%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Higher; 97.24 from 96.34 from 97.47;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.

[winston]

TOL @ Oct 26, 2025

Predict Prepare.jpg

You Cant Predict But You Can Prepare

The markets continued to grind higher this week.

The markets seemed to have shrugged off the recent dip in the Gold & Silver markets and we still do not why the precious metals corrected.

And before that, there was the dip in Cryptos. However, that was due to Trump's threat of a 100% additional tariff on China.

Anyway, the market players seemed to be wearing rose coloured glasses and are quite sure that the markets will grind higher from the following:-
a. Rates cut of at least 25 bps on Oct 29
b. Good Trump-Xi Meeting in Korea on Oct 30
c. Good forward projections during the current US Earnings Season

Or are the markets being manipulated by Invisible Hands?

It's strange that the market participants are able to ignore the coming US Stagflation, Tariffs, Ukraine War, Supply Chain Disruption, Global Slowdown, US$ 38t Debt etc.

Anyway, I continue to be "cautiously bearish" while punting on special situations.

I would like to also remind myself of Howard Mark's comment;-
"You can't predict but you can prepare”.

We now live in a chaotic and unpredictable world. I need to accept that and thereafter, act accordingly.

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. Tariffs: Semiconductors; Drugs; 100% China etc.
2. US Cities: Why are National Guards being deployed?
3. Oct 26 - 28: Trump at Asean Meeting; Meetings between US & China;
4. Oct 28 - 29: US FOMC Meeting; 25 bps cut?
5. Oct 30: Trump & Xi Meeting in Korea?
6. Nov 05: US Tariff (Supreme Court)


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower (39% from 35% last week from 37% two weeks ago of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. HK: 30% (8 Counters); Tariffs;
b. US: 27% (8 Counters); Stagflation?
c. Malaysia: 43% (13 Counters); Banks Attractive?
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On; Data as of every Saturday;

1. WTI Oil. Higher; US$62 from US$58 last week from US$59 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak Global Demand: Surplus 2m bpd?
b. SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left; Trump replenishing SPR (US$20b);
c. OPEC+: Increasing output to regain market share
d. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
e. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 70
f. Drill Baby Drill = Lower Oil Prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold; Lower; US$4138 from US$4213 from US$4000;
Support: 2995; 2955; 2930; 1490; Resistance 4000
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Will Central Banks' demand (20%) > Retail Gold supply (80%)?
d. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024 (US$80b)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver; Lower; US$49 from US$50 from US$47;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 91; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper. Higher; US$5.12 from US$4.97 from US$4.89;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 5.19
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Bitcoin. Higher; US$110,970 (as of 7.45 AM on Oct 25, 2025) from US$106,641 last week from US$112,670 two weeks ago;
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$127,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk On (Data as of Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index; Higher; "33 Fear" from "27 Fear" last week from "29 Fear" two weeks ago
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities; Higher; 6792 from 6664 last week from 6553 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 7000
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 22; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 213; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 24,380; Support: 22.370; 18000, 17435
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold: 1.9
i. No Trade

2. HK Equities; Higher; 26166 from 25247 last week from 26282 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800 (Apr 2025); 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 27300 (Oct 2025); 30,000; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. Added to PopMart
e. Sold HSBC

3. Shanghai Equities; Higher; 3950 from 3840 from 3894;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
e. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1613 from 1607 from 1626:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1550, 1580; 1605; 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Sold Hong Leong Bank
d. Sold DNEX Warrants
e. Traded Perak Transit


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Oct 24 @ 5.10 PM)

1. USD to JPY; JPY Weaker; 153 from 151 last week from 153 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR; SGD Weaker; 3.25 from 3.26 from 3.25;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. When to convert some SGD to MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD; AUD Flat; 0.65 from 0.65 from 0.66;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD; EUR Weaker; 1.16 from 1.17 from 1.16;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD; HKD Weaker; 7.7693 from 7.7679 from 7.7814;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR: MYR Weaker; 4.22 from 4.23 from 4.22;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD: SGD Flat; 1.30 from 1.30 from 1.30;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY; CNY Stronger; 7.12 from 7.13 from 7.12;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD; Stronger; 99.04 from 98.54 last week from 99.38 two weeks ago; Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. The number of land parcels that sold for at least 20 per cent above the asking price accounted for 37 per cent of deals this year.
b. That compares with just 14 per cent for all of last year and 4.6 per cent in 2023.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
b. New projects declined 46% in 1H 2025
c. Increased of 19% in 1H 2025 on unsold properties
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Lower; 3.99% from 4.01% from 4.05%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 3.48% from 3.46% from 3.52%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Higher; 97.74 from 97.24 from 96.34;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.

[winston]

TOL @ Nov 02, 2025

Big Picture.jpg

The Big Picture (Update)

As there are many uncertainties and moving parts out there, it's time to look at the "Big Picture" again

1. Interest Rates:- The Feds mentioned that they may not reduce interest rates in December. However, things are slowing down in the US. At the same time, there's also about $28t of the National Debt to be refinanced over the next four years. Many moving parts here.

2. USD:- The USD has been slowly appreciating over the past few weeks. There is still no alternative to the USD. However, a mere 2% shift away from US Assets, can easily result in a US$1t outflow.

3. Japan:- The new PM wants to unleash Abenomics 2.0. If that's the case, the JPY will weaken which will lead to higher inflation. A weaker JPY will be good for the Japanese Trading House and the Nikkei 225. However, if inflation rises a lot, the BOJ may be forced to increase interest rates which may result in some Japanese money flowing back to Japan. Many moving parts here again. The Nikkei is at record high. What can pr**k the bubble there?

4. Commodities:- Demand may be weak with the global slowdown from the tariffs and the higher USD. There was a recent FOMO rally in Precious Metals, Rare Earth and Uranium Miners but they are correcting now. A strong USD will also not be good for Commodities.

5. Liquidity:- The markets remain fairly liquid. China is adding to the world's Liquidity. There's supposedly a lot of money (US$20t?) on the sidelines, waiting to buy on any dips. The US will be ending QT on Dec 1st. Thereafter, if the Feds starts QE again, that would definitely add some liquidity into the system. However, I think that the Feds will be keeping their powder dry for the time being as they need to be able deploy around US$4t at the next crisis.

6. Global Economy:- A mild global recession is probably the base case now. Will it morph into a Global Recession or Depression?

7. Market Sentiment:- With the constant Flip-Flopping, market sentiment has been damaged. Therefore, a 25% discount should probably be applied to any business consideration. Chasing any over-crowded trade at this point in time is probably risky, unless one is very nimble.

8. Earnings:- Outside of the Technology and AI sector, things are not that great. Supply chains are being disrupted and once the full impact of the tariffs hits, demand could be affected. (We are now working through the front-loaded inventories). A 15% discount should probably be applied to all earning projections. Business Confidence has been severely affected and will probably not return for a few years.

9. Trading Strategy:- With so many moving parts and the constant flip-floppings, it's very difficult to trade in this type of market as one can easily get whip-lashed. One could try to day-trade but it's not easy. If one is a long term investor, a 25% discount should probably be applied. A sharp drop in price may present some medium term opportunity but it should be looked at on a case-to-case basis. I'm "cautiously bearish" as we continue to grind higher.

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. Tariffs: Semiconductors; Drugs; 100% China etc.
2. US Cities: Why are National Guards being deployed?
3. Nov 01: US - 42m people losing their Food Stamps
4. Nov 05: US Tariff (Supreme Court)
5. Dec 01: US: Quantitative Tightening (QT) ending
6. Dec 10: US - FOMC meeting; Will they reduce rates by 25 bps?
7. Dec 31: Window Dressing


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher (42% from 39% last week from 35% two weeks ago of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. HK: 28% (8 Counters); Tariffs;
b. US: 30% (9 Counters); Stagflation?
c. Malaysia: 42% (14 Counters); Banks Attractive?
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now?
b. Oil, Precious Metals, Rare Earth, USD & Bitcoin, have not proven to be good safe haven
c. CHF and SGD?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On; Data as of every Saturday;

1. WTI Oil. Lower; US$61 from US$62 last week from US$58 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak Global Demand: Surplus 2m bpd?
b. SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left; Trump replenishing SPR (US$20b);
c. OPEC+: Increasing output to regain market share
d. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
e. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 70
f. Drill Baby Drill = Lower Oil Prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold; Lower; US$4013 from US$4138 from US$4213;
Support: 3400; 2900; 1500; Resistance 4381
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Will Central Banks' demand (20%) > Retail Gold supply (80%)?
d. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024 (US$80b)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver; Lower; US$48 from US$49 from US$50;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 91; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper. Lower; US$5.11 from US$5.12 from US$4.97;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 5.19
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Bitcoin. Lower; US$109,643 (as of Nov 1, 2025 @ 7.44 AM) from US$110,970 last week from US$106,641 two weeks ago;
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$127,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk On (Data as of Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index; Higher; "35 Fear" from "33 Fear" last week from "27 Fear" two weeks ago
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities; Higher; 6840 from 6792 last week from 6664 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 6900; 7000
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 22; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 213; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 24,380; Support: 22.370; 18000, 17435
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold: 1.9
i. No Trade

2. HK Equities; Lower; 25956 from 26166 last week from 25247 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800 (Apr 2025); 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 27300 (Oct 2025); 30,000; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. No Trade

3. Shanghai Equities; Higher; 3955 from 3950 from 3840;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
e. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1609 from 1613 from 1607:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1550, 1580; 1605; 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Bought BAT
d. Traded Perak Transit
e. Sold 1/6 DNEX


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Nov 1 @ 7.55 AM)

1. USD to JPY; JPY Weaker; 154 from 153 last week from 151 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR; SGD Weaker; 3.22 from 3.25 from 3.26;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. When to convert some SGD to MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD; AUD Flat; 0.65 from 0.65 from 0.65;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD; EUR Flat; 1.16 from 1.16 from 1.17;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD; HKD Weaker; 7.7766 from 7.7693 from 7.7679;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR: MYR Stronger; 4.19 from 4.22 from 4.23;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD: SGD Flat; 1.30 from 1.30 from 1.30;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY; CNY Stronger; 7.11 from 7.12 from 7.13;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD; Stronger; 99.72 from 99.04 last week from 98.54 two weeks ago; Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. The number of land parcels that sold for at least 20 per cent above the asking price accounted for 37 per cent of deals this year.
b. That compares with just 14 per cent for all of last year and 4.6 per cent in 2023.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
b. New projects declined 46% in 1H 2025
c. Increased of 19% in 1H 2025 on unsold properties
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 4.08% from 3.99% from 4.01%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 3.58% from 3.48% from 3.46%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Lower; 97.39 from 97.74 from 97.24;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.

[winston]

TOL @ Nov 09, 2025

storm.jpg

Extreme Fear?

I'm surprised that the CNN Fear & Greed Index is now at 21 (Extreme Fear).

Whenever this index is below 30, it means that the market is oversold and it's normally a good time to buy.

However, this time I'm hesitating as there are many moving parts eg. Supreme Court Tariff Decision, Global Economic Slowdown, Supply Chains Disruption, Elevated Interest Rate, Expensive Tech & AI Valuation, High Global Debts, High Youth Unemployment, US Government Shutdown, Various Wars etc.

In addition, we also had lot of bearish comments this week including:-

1. Various negative comments by the Bank CEOs at the HK Global Financial Leaders' Investment Summit

2. Ed Yardeni:-
a. Warned that the S&P could fall 5% from our recent high through December
b. After the S&P 500’s roughly $17 trillion rebound, key market technicals are nearing historic extremes
c. S&P 500 is trading as much as 13% above its 200-day moving average, a wide spread, that traditionally suggests a rally has gotten overextended

3. World Economic Fund:
a. Crypto bubble
b. AI bubble and
c. Debt bubble

4. Various Warning Signs by the "experts":-
a. S&P 500’s Shiller P/E hitting it's highest multiple during the current bull market cycle (which began in October 2022) of 41.20.
b. Buffett Indicator as of October 31 is at 224.7%. It's considered expensive if > 200 (1999)
c. P/S ratio of S&P 500 is 3.4
d. Record margin debt
e. Narrow market breadth
f. Heavy concentration in mega-cap tech stocks like NVDA.
g. Hinderburg Omen
etc.

With so many negative comments this week, it's no wonder that the "CNN Fear & Greed" index is at "21 Extreme Fear"! However, the markets have still not broken down (yet?).

I remained "cautiously bearish" and am looking for opportunities to sell rather than to buy unless it's a "no-brainer conviction buy".

Anyway, I have a habit of catching falling knives so I'm trying to wait a bit longer to buy nowadays.

In times like this, it's good to remind myself of Jim Roger's "words of wisdom":-
"I just wait until there is money lying in the corner and all I have to do is go over there and pick it up. I do nothing in the meantime. Even people who lose money in the market say, 'I just lost my money, now I have to do something to make it back.' No, you don't. You should sit there until you find something”.

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. Tariffs: Semiconductors; Drugs; 100% China etc.
2. US: Why are National Guards being deployed?
3. US: 42m people lost their Food Stamps?
4. US: Tariff (Supreme Court)
5. Dec 01: US: Quantitative Tightening (QT) ending
6. Dec 10: US - FOMC meeting; Will they reduce rates by 25 bps?
7. Dec 31: Window Dressing


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Flat (42% from 42% last week from 39% two weeks ago of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. HK: 28% (8 Counters); Tariff
b. US: 29% (9 Counters); Stagflation?
c. Malaysia: 43% (13 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? Yen?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off; Data as of every Saturday;

1. WTI Oil. Lower; US$60 from US$61 last week from US$62 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak Global Demand: Surplus 2m bpd?
b. SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left; Trump replenishing SPR (US$20b);
c. OPEC+: Increasing output to regain market share
d. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
e. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 70
f. Drill Baby Drill = Lower Oil Prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold; Lower; US4008 from US$4013 from US$4138;
Support: 3400; 2900; 1500; Resistance 4381
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Will Central Banks' demand (20%) > Retail Gold supply (80%)?
d. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024 (US$80b)
e. Hedge Funds are starting to lose money on their gold bet
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver; Flat; US$48 from US$48 from US$49;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 91; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper. Lower; US$4.96 from US$5.11 from US$5.12;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 5.19
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Bitcoin. Lower; US$103,679 (as of Nov 8, 2025 @ 6.57 AM) from US$109,643 last week from US$110,970 two weeks ago;
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$127,000
i. All cryptos gain for 2025 may have been wiped out?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Mixed (Data as of Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index; Lower; "21 Extreme Fear" from "35 Fear" last week from "33 Fear" two weeks ago
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities; Lower; 6729 from 6840 last week from 6792 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 6900; 7000
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 23; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 41; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 24,380; Support: 22.370; 18000, 17435
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold: 1.9
i. No Trade

2. HK Equities; Higher; 26232 from 25956 last week from 26166 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800 (Apr 2025); 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 27300 (Oct 2025); 30,000; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. Sold 7515 (Japan Inverse ETF 2x)

3. Shanghai Equities; Higher; 3998 from 3955 from 3950;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
e. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1619 from 1609 from 1613:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1550, 1580; 1605; 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Added to Perak Transit
d. Sold PPB


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Nov 8 @ 6.45 AM)

1. USD to JPY; JPY Stronger; 153 from 154 last week from 153 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR; SGD Weaker; 3.21 from 3.22 from 3.25;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD; AUD Flat; 0.65 from 0.65 from 0.65;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD; EUR Flat; 1.16 from 1.16 from 1.16;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD; HKD Weaker; 7.7790 from 7.7766 from 7.7693;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR: MYR Stronger; 4.18 from 4.19 from 4.22;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD: SGD Flat; 1.30 from 1.30 from 1.30;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY; CNY Weaker; 7.12 from 7.11 from 7.12;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD; Stronger; 99.56 from 99.72 last week from 99.04 two weeks ago; Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. The number of land parcels that sold for at least 20 per cent above the asking price accounted for 37 per cent of deals this year.
b. That compares with just 14 per cent for all of last year and 4.6 per cent in 2023.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
b. New projects declined 46% in 1H 2025
c. Increased of 19% in 1H 2025 on unsold properties
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 4.10 % from 4.08% from 3.99%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Lower; 3.56% from 3.58% from 3.48%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Lower; 96.76 from 97.39 from 97.74;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.

[winston]

TOL @ Nov 16, 2025

storm.jpg

Extreme Fear (Week Two)

The CNN Greed & Fear Index remains at Extreme Fear (22) and the market has not gone anywhere for the past week. However, it has not crashed either.

In the meantime, only 26% of the stocks in the S&P 500, managed to outperformed the index over the last three months. This is one of the worst market breadth readings since 2020.

The "FOMO Crowd" is still hoping for some more good news from TACO despite getting the following recently:-
1. End of the government shutdown
2. US$2000 tariff dividend
3. 50 year mortgage
4. Removal of tariffs on coffee, beef & various fruits
etc.

Meanwhile, the AI & Tech counters are not crashing despite their overvaluation while the global economy is a slow-motion train wreck.

It's a very frustrating situation for the hedge funds and full-time traders nowadays as they need to wait very patiently for their ideas to materialise, not to mentioned the occasional tweet that can derail their position.

The following are my random thoughts on the markets:-

1. US: Overvalued; Still waiting patiently with Warren Buffett and Michael Burry, for the deep correction. TACO will continue to work overtime, to keep the market elevated. "You can fool some of the people, some of the time but not all the people, all the time".

2. HK - less overvalued than the US but it has also gone up a lot. The "National Team" is probably on standby to buy on any deep correction. Meanwhile, are the army of Retail Investors getting restless?

3. Commodities - I'm still waiting for Gold, Cryptos, Silver, Uranium, Copper, Rare Earth etc., to correct further before I start to seriously look at them. I think they have run up too much and too fast.

I remained "cautiously bearish". When buying nowadays, I'm always hesitating. When selling nowadays, I do not hesitate anymore. My exposure to Equities is still about 40% of my Liquid Assets. If the "Big One" is coming, I should try to raise some Cash whenever I can.

I still have some legacy positions and it's not so easy to take big losses on those positions. Ideally, my Stop Losses should be at 7% and never over a weekend. Maximum Stop Losses should be 25% or the expiry of three months. Easier said than done.

Meanwhile, I'm aware that there's about US$15t of Cash sitting on the sidelines, waiting and waiting, to buy on any steep dips. Therefore, I should not be too bearish at this point in time. There's no fear in the eyes of the players yet. They think that this slow-motion train wreck, will take a few more years to materialize.

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. Tariffs: Semiconductors; Drugs; 100% China etc.
2. US: Why are National Guards being deployed?
3. US: Tariff (Supreme Court)
4. Dec 01: US: Quantitative Tightening (QT) ending; Will they flip to QE again?
5. Dec 10: US - FOMC meeting; Does a 50 bps cut excite you?
6. Dec 31: Window Dressing


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower (40% from 42% last week from 42% two weeks ago of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. HK: 30% (8 Counters); Tariff;
b. US: 31% (9 Counters); Stagflation?
c. Malaysia: 39% (10 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? Yen?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off; Data as of every Saturday;

1. WTI Oil. Flat; US$60 from US$60 last week from US$61 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak Global Demand: Surplus 2m bpd?
b. SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left; Trump replenishing SPR (US$20b);
c. OPEC+: Increasing output to regain market share
d. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
e. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 70
f. Drill Baby Drill = Lower Oil Prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold; Higher; US$4086 from US4008 from US$4013;
Support: 3400; 2900; 1500; Resistance 4381
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Will Central Banks' demand (20%) > Retail Gold supply (80%)?
d. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024 (US$80b)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver; Higher; US$50 from US$48 from US$48;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 91; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper. Higher; US$5.05 from US$4.96 from US$5.11;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 5.19
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Bitcoin. Lower; US$97,106 (as of 4.12 PM on Nov 14, 2025) from 103,679 last week from US$109,643 two weeks ago;
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$127,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Mixed (Data as of Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index; Higher; "22 Extreme Fear" from "21 Extreme Fear" last week from "35 Fear" last week two weeks ago
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities; Higher; 6734 from 6729 last week from 6840 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 6900; 7000
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 23; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 41; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 24,380; Support: 22.370; 18000, 17435
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold: 1.9
i. No Trade

2. HK Equities; Higher; 26589 from 26232 last week from 25956 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800 (Apr 2025); 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 27300 (Oct 2025); 30,000; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. No Trade

3. Shanghai Equities; Lower; 3990 from 3998 from 3955;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
e. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1625 from 1619 from 1609:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1550, 1580; 1605; 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Sold T7 Global
d. Sold Zetrix
e. Sold BAT


Currencies: Mixed (Data from XE.com on Nov 14 @ 4.07 PM)

1. USD to JPY; JPY Weaker; 155 from 153 last week from 154 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR; SGD Weaker; 3.18 from 3.21 from 3.22;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. When to convert some SGD to MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD; AUD Flat; 0.65 from 0.65 from 0.65;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD; EUR Flat; 1.16 from 1.16 from 1.16;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD; HKD Stronger; 7.7707 from 7.7790 from 7.7766;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR: MYR Stronger; 4.13 from 4.18 from 4.19;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD: SGD Flat; 1.30 from 1.30 from 1.30;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY; CNY Stronger; 7.10 from 7.12 from 7.11;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD; Weaker; 99.27 from 99.56 last week from 99.72 two weeks ago; Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. The number of land parcels that sold for at least 20 per cent above the asking price accounted for 37 per cent of deals this year.
b. That compares with just 14 per cent for all of last year and 4.6 per cent in 2023.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
b. New projects declined 46% in 1H 2025
c. Increased of 19% in 1H 2025 on unsold properties
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 4.15% from 4.10 % last week from 4.08% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Lower; 3.61% from 3.56% from 3.58%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Lower; 96.63 from 96.76 from 97.39;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.

[winston]

TOL @ Nov 23, 2025

uninvestable-markets.jpg

Extreme Fear (Week Three)

The CNN Greed & Fear Index has dropped further to Extreme Fear 11 and the market has been falling for the the past week.

However, it still has not crashed yet although we are starting to see some dips in Japan, HK, the Tech & AI sectors as well as the Crypto area.

Reflecting on previous crashes eg. Subprime Crisis, Asian Financial Crisis etc, it does take some time for things to fall and roll over.

We are now in "Week Three" of this correction and things are starting to be quite weak. Will this morph into something steeper or will the money on the sidelines (about US$15t) be buying into the dips now?

Intuitively, I think that there could be a slight retracement and thereafter, things could drop further from there.

Normally, I would be buying during corrections like this for a quick trading profit but for this round, I will be sitting things out.

The global economy is not doing well, prices are extended and there are too many uncertainties.

Anyway, the following are my random thoughts on the markets this week:-

1. US - Overvalued; Still waiting patiently for the deep correction. What would Michael Burry be unveiling on Nov 25th, about the Tech & AI sectors?

2. HK - less overvalued than the US but it has gone up a lot. The "National Team" is probably on standby to buy on any deep correction. Are the army of Retail Investors and Mainland Fund Managers, getting restless as the momentum is weakening?

3. Commodities - I'm still waiting for Gold, Cryptos, Silver, Uranium, Copper, Rare Earth etc., to correct further before I start to look at them. I think they have run up a bit too much and too fast

I remained "cautiously bearish". I'm hesitating longer when buying and I'm selling whenever I can. My exposure to Equities is still about 40% of my Liquid Assets which is still on the higher end for this type of markets.

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. Tariffs: Semiconductors; Drugs; 100% China etc.
2. US: Why are National Guards being deployed?
3. US: Tariff (Supreme Court)
4. Nov 27: Deadline for Ukraine to accept Trump's Peace (Surrender) Plan
5. Dec 01: US: Quantitative Tightening (QT) ending
6. Dec 10: US - FOMC meeting; Does a 50 bps cut excite you?
7. Dec 31: Window Dressing


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower (40% from 42% last week from 42% two weeks ago of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. HK: 30% (8 Counters); Tariff;
b. US: 31% (9 Counters); Stagflation?
c. Malaysia: 39% (10 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? Yen?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off; Data as of every Saturday;

1. WTI Oil. Lower; US$58 from US$60 last week from US$60 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak Global Demand: Surplus 2m bpd?
b. SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left; Trump replenishing SPR (US$20b);
c. OPEC+: Increasing output to regain market share
d. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
e. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 70
f. Drill Baby Drill = Lower Oil Prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold; Lower; US$4062 from US$4086 from US4008;
Support: 3400; 2900; 1500; Resistance 4380
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Will Central Banks' demand (20%) > Retail Gold supply (80%)?
d. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024 (US$80b)
e. Central Banks are buying about 80 tonnes monthly
f. About 300 tonnes of gold are mined monthly
g. About half of mined gold are used for jewellery
h. 2026 target: US$4900 GS;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver; Flat; US$50 from US$50 from US$48;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 91; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper. Lower; US$5.00 from US$5.05 from US$4.96;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 5.19
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Bitcoin. Lower; US$84,948 (as of 7.29 AM on Nov 22, 2025) from US$97,106 last week from 103,679 two weeks ago;
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$127,000
i. Support: US$80,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as of Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index; Lower; "11 Extreme Fear" from "22 Extreme Fear" last week from "21 Extreme Fear" two weeks ago
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities; Lower; 6603 from 6734 last week from 6729 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 6900; 7000
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 23; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 41; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 24,380; Support: 22.370; 18000, 17435
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold: 1.9
i. No Trade

2. HK Equities; Lower; 25189 from 26589 last week from 26232 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800 (Apr 2025); 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 27300 (Oct 2025); 30,000; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. 2006 Target: 27,500 MS;
e. No Trade

3. Shanghai Equities; Lower; 3835 from 3990 from 3998;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
e. 2006 Target: 4840 MS;
f. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1618 from 1625 from 1619:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1550, 1580; 1605; 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. No Trade


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Nov 21 @ 2.30 PM)

1. USD to JPY; JPY Weaker; 157 from 155 last week from 153 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR; SGD Weaker; 3.17 from 3.18 from 3.21;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. When to convert some SGD to MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD; AUD Flat; 0.65 from 0.65 from 0.65;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD; EUR Weaker; 1.15 from 1.16 from 1.16;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD; HKD Weaker; 7.7839 from 7.7707 from 7.7790;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR: MYR Weaker; 4.15 from 4.13 from 4.18;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD: SGD Weaker; 1.31 from 1.30 from 1.30;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY; CNY Weaker; 7.11 from 7.10 from 7.12;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD; Stronger; 100.08 from 99.27 last week from 99.56 two weeks ago; Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. The number of land parcels that sold for at least 20 per cent above the asking price accounted for 37 per cent of deals this year.
b. That compares with just 14 per cent for all of last year and 4.6 per cent in 2023.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
b. New projects declined 46% in 1H 2025
c. Increased of 19% in 1H 2025 on unsold properties
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Lower; 4.06% from 4.15% last week from 4.10 % two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Lower; 3.51% from 3.61% from 3.56%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Higher; 96.76 from 96.63 from 96.76;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.

[winston]

TOL @ Nov 30, 2025

storm.jpg

Extreme Fear (Week Four)

The "CNN Greed & Fear Index" has recovered slightly to 24 (from 11 last week) but it's still at the "Extreme Fear" level.

Most of the previous "hot" sectors have rebounded slightly this week eg. Cryptos, AI, Tech, Japan, HK.

Can they continue to rally or will profit-taking be setting in soon?

Anyway, I do not see any catalyst for the markets but the following are on the horizon:-
1. FOMC Meeting: Dec 10th; 25 bps interest rate cut?; Non-Event
2. "Year End Window Dressing": 2nd week of Dec till Dec 31st; Muted?
3. "Santa Rally": last trading week of Dec and the first two trading days of Jan
4. "January Effect": Small Caps rallying in January

Intuitively, I think that things will be weak for the next few weeks after the current retracement.

The following are my random thoughts on the markets this week:-

1. US - Overvalued; Still waiting patiently for the deep correction. The US market is behaving "strangely" and I'm not sure whether it's because of the trading activities of the machines. Even Michael Burry mentioned that he has been out of sync with the markets for a while.

2. HK - less overvalued than the US but it has gone up a lot. The "National Team" is probably on standby to buy on any deep correction. Will the army of Retail Investors and Mainland Fund Managers be selling, into the current retracement?

3. Commodities - I'm still waiting for Gold, Cryptos, Silver, Uranium, Copper, Rare Earth etc., to correct further.

I remained "cautiously bearish". My exposure to Equities is still about 39% of my Liquid Assets. I have not been trading for the past few weeks and I'm selling whenever I can.

(It's very hard to sell legacy positions at a big loss. Need to always have a Stop-Loss of say 7% or a "Expiry Period" eg. never take a loss over a weekend).

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. Tariffs: Semiconductors; Drugs; 100% China etc.
2. US: Why are National Guards being deployed?
3. US: Tariff (Supreme Court)
4. Dec 01: US: Quantitative Tightening (QT) ending
5. Dec 08 - 31: Year-End Window Dressing
6. Dec 10: FOMC meeting; Does a 50 bps cut excite you?
7. Dec 29 - Jan 02: Santa Rally
8. Jan 2026: January Effect; Small Caps Outperformance;


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower (39% from 40% last week from 42% two weeks ago of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. HK: 29% (8 Counters); Tariff;
b. US: 33% (9 Counters); Stagflation?
c. Malaysia: 38% (9 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? Yen?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off; Data as of every Saturday;

1. WTI Oil. Flat; US$58 from US$58 last week from US$60 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak Global Demand: Surplus 2m bpd?
b. SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left; Trump replenishing SPR (US$20b);
c. OPEC+: Increasing output to regain market share
d. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
e. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 70
f. Drill Baby Drill = Lower Oil Prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold; Higher; US$4256 from US$4062 from US$4086;
Support: 3400; 2900; 1500; Resistance 4380
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Will Central Banks' demand (20%) > Retail Gold supply (80%)?
d. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024 (US$80b)
e. Central Banks are buying about 80 tonnes monthly
f. About 300 tonnes of gold are mined monthly
g. About half of mined gold are used for jewellery
h. 2026 target: US$4900 GS;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver; Higher; US$56 from US$50 from US$50;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 91; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper. Higher; US$5.28 from US$5.00 from US$5.05;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 5.19
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Bitcoin. Higher; US$90,968 ( as of 7.47 AM on Nov 29, 2025) from US$84,948 last week from US$97,106 two weeks ago;
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$127,000
i. Support: US$80,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk On (Data as of Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index; Higher; "24 Extreme Fear" from "11 Extreme Fear" last week from "22 Extreme Fear" two weeks ago
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities; Higher; 6849 from 6603 last week from 6734 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 6900; 7000
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 23; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 41; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 26,000; Support: 22,100; 21,000; 17,000;
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold: 1.9
i. No Trade

2. HK Equities; Higher; 25858 from 25189 last week from 26589 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800 (Apr 2025); 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 27300 (Oct 2025); 30,000; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. 2006 Target: 27,500 MS;
e. No Trade

3. Shanghai Equities; Higher; 3889 from 3835 from 3990;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
e. 2006 Target: 4840 MS;
f. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1604 from 1618 from 1625:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1550, 1580; 1605; 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Sold Public Bank


Currencies: Risk On (Data from XE.com on Nov 29 @ 3.00 PM)

1. USD to JPY; JPY Stronger; 156 from 157 last week from 155 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR; SGD Stronger; 3.19 from 3.17 from 3.18;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. When to convert some SGD to MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD; AUD Flat; 0.65 from 0.65 from 0.65;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD; EUR Flat; 1.15 from 1.16 from 1.16;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD; HKD Weaker; 7.7848 from 7.7839 from 7.7707;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR: MYR Stronger; 4.13 from 4.15 from 4.13;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD: SGD Stronger; 1.30 from 1.31 from 1.30;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing the finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY; CNY Stronger; 7.07 from 7.11 from 7.10;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD; Weaker; 99.48 from 100.08 last week from 99.27 two weeks ago; Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. The number of land parcels that sold for at least 20 per cent above the asking price accounted for 37 per cent of deals this year.
b. That compares with just 14 per cent for all of last year and 4.6 per cent in 2023.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
b. New projects declined 46% in 1H 2025
c. Increased of 19% in 1H 2025 on unsold properties
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Lower; 4.02% from 4.06% last week from 4.15% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Lower; 3.50% from 3.51% from 3.61%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Higher; 97.65 from 96.76 from 96.63;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.

[winston]

TOL @ Dec 07, 2025

window-dressing.jpg

Window Dressing & Santa Rally ?

The "CNN Greed & Fear Index" has recovered to "Fear 40", from "Extreme Fear 24" last week and "Extreme Fear 11" two weeks ago.

Most of the previous "hot" sectors continued to rebound this week eg. AI, Tech and HK. Cryptos and Japan, are starting to correct again after a small rebound.

Can the markets continue to rebound in anticipation of "Window Dressing" activities and the "Santa Rally"?

Intuitively, I think that "Window Dressing" activities will be muted and there may not be any "Santa Rally" this year.

Cryptos are weak and I watch Cryptos for a feel of Market Sentiments. It's telling me that Sentiments are not that great.

The VIX are also at a low level now. That tells me that the markets are very Complacent and it's an "Accident Waiting To Happen".

The following are my random thoughts on the markets this week:-
1. US - Overvalued; Slow-motion train wreck from the tariffs. Still waiting for the deep correction. Only AI & tech are doing well. The S&P 493 are not doing that well.
2. HK - less overvalued than the US but it has gone up a lot. The "National Team" will probably buy on any deep correction. Will the army of Retail Investors and Mainland Fund Managers, be selling into the current rally?

3. Commodities - I'm still waiting for Gold, Cryptos, Silver, Uranium, Copper, Rare Earth etc., to correct further. When the Hedge Funds leave, it will not be pretty.

I remained "cautiously bearish". My exposure to Equities is still about 40% of my Liquid Assets. I have not been trading for the past few weeks.

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. Tariffs: Semiconductors; Drugs; 100% China etc.
2. US: Why are National Guards being deployed?
3. US: Tariff (Supreme Court)
4. Dec 08 - 31: Year-End Window Dressing
5. Dec 09: Bank of Japan hiking rates?
6. Dec 10: FOMC meeting; Does a 25 bps cut excite you?
7. Dec (Mid): China Central economic Work Conference
8. Dec 29 - Jan 02: Santa Rally; Last trading week of Dec and the first two trading days of Jan
9. Jan 2026: January Effect; Small Caps Outperformance;


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher (40% from 39% last week from 40% two weeks ago of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. HK: 29% (8 Counters); Resistance?
b. US: 33% (9 Counters); Stagflation?
c. Malaysia: 38% (9 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? Yen?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off; Data as of every Saturday;

1. WTI Oil. Higher; US$60 from US$58 last week from US$58 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak Global Demand: Surplus 2m bpd?
b. SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left; Trump replenishing SPR (US$20b);
c. OPEC+: Increasing output to regain market share
d. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
e. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 70
f. Drill Baby Drill = Lower Oil Prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold; Higher; US$4243 from US$4256 from US$4062;
Support: 3400; 2900; 1500; Resistance 4380
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Will Central Banks' demand (20%) > Retail Gold supply (80%)?
d. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024 (US$80b)
e. Central Banks are buying about 80 tonnes monthly
f. About 300 tonnes of gold are mined monthly
g. About half of mined gold are used for jewellery
h. 2026 target: US$4900 GS;
i. Risk of selling by Hedge Funds & Family Offices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver; Higher; US$59 from US$56 from US$50;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 91; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
d. Risk of selling by Hedge Funds & Family Offices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper. Higher; US$5.46 from US$5.28 from US$5.00;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 5.19
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
d. Risk of selling by Hedge Funds & Family Offices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Bitcoin. Lower; US$89,353 (as of 9.05 AM on Dec 6, 2025) from US$90,968 last week from US$84,948 two weeks ago;
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$127,000
i. Support: US$80,000
j. Risk of selling by Hedge Funds & Family Offices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk On (Data as of Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index; Higher; "40 Fear" from "24 Extreme Fear" last week from "11 Extreme Fear" two weeks ago
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities; Higher; 6870 from 6849 last week from 6603 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6540; 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 6850; 6890 (Oct 2025); 7000
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 23; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 41; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 26,000; Support: 22,100; 21,000; 17,000;
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold: 1.9
i. No Trade

2. HK Equities; Higher; 26085 from 25858 last week from 25189 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800 (Apr 2025); 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 27300 (Oct 2025); 30,000; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. 2006 Target: 27,500 MS;
e. No Trade

3. Shanghai Equities; Higher; 3903 from 3889 from 3835;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
e. 2006 Target: 4840 MS;
f. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1617 from 1604 from 1618:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1550, 1580; 1605; 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. No Trade


Currencies: Risk On (Data from XE.com on Dec 06 @ 2.15PM)

1. USD to JPY; JPY Stronger; 155 from 156 last week from 157 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR; SGD Flat; 3.17 from 3.17 from 3.19;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. When to convert some SGD to MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD; AUD Stronger; 0.66 from 0.65 from 0.65;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD; EUR Stronger; 1.16 from 1.15 from 1.16;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD; HKD Weaker; 7.7850 from 7.7848 from 7.7839;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR: MYR Stronger; 4.11 from 4.13 from 4.15;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD: SGD Flat; 1.30 from 1.30 from 1.31;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing the finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY; CNY Flat; 7.07 from 7.07 from 7.11;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD; Weaker; 98.99 from 99.48 last week from 100.08 two weeks ago; Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. The number of land parcels that sold for at least 20 per cent above the asking price accounted for 37 per cent of deals this year.
b. That compares with just 14 per cent for all of last year and 4.6 per cent in 2023.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
b. New projects declined 46% in 1H 2025
c. Increased of 19% in 1H 2025 on unsold properties
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 4.14% from 4.02% last week from 4.06% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 3.56 % from 3.50% from 3.51%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Lower; 97.29 from 97.65 from 96.76;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.

[winston]

TOL @ Dec 14, 2025

window-dressing.jpg

Window Dressing & Santa Rally (Part 2)?

The "CNN Greed & Fear Index" has recovered to "Fear 42" from "Fear 40" last week from "Extreme Fear 24" just two weeks ago.

Is the rise in the markets this week due to "Window Dressing" activities and can the markets continue to rally till December 31st?

Meanwhile, Cryptos are still weak (measure of sentiment) while the VIX still shows "complacency".

The following are some bearish comments this week:-

1. Bank of America
a. Alphabet and Nvidia alone account for a third of the S&P 500’s gains this year
b. The Magnificent 7 swelled to over 30% of the S&P 500’s total value.
c. AI capex by S&P tech names has surged past $400 billion annually, with a substantial amount being invested in GPUs, hyperscale data centers and power infrastructure.
d. Tesla stock is around 239x compared to somewhere between 20x to 25x, for the S&P 500.

2. Ed Yardeni
a. Competitive pressures are piling up across cloud, chips, advertising and AI
b. Yardeni is having market weight for the Information Technology and Communication Services sector while shifting extra chips toward Financials, Industrials and an overweight in Healthcare.

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. Tariffs: Semiconductors; Drugs; China, India etc.
2. US: Why are National Guards being deployed?
3. US: Tariff (Supreme Court)
4. Dec 08 to 31: Year-End Window Dressing
5. Dec 19: Bank of Japan hiking rates?
6. Dec 29 to Jan 02: Santa Rally; Last trading week of Dec and the first two trading days of Jan
7. Jan 2026: January Effect; Small Caps Outperformance;


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower (41% from 42% last week from 40% two weeks ago of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. HK: 27% (8 Counters); Tariff;
b. US: 32% (9 Counters); Stagflation?
c. Malaysia: 41% (8 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? Yen?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off; Data as of every Saturday;

1. WTI Oil. Lower; US$58 from US$60 last week from US$58 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak Global Demand: Surplus 2m bpd?
b. SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left; Trump replenishing SPR (US$20b);
c. OPEC+: Increasing output to regain market share
d. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
e. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 70
f. Drill Baby Drill = Lower Oil Prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold; Higher; US$4330 from US$4243 from US$4256;
Support: 3400; 2900; 1500; Resistance 4380
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Will Central Banks' demand (20%) > Retail Gold supply (80%)?
d. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024 (US$80b)
e. Central Banks are buying about 80 tonnes monthly
f. About 300 tonnes of gold are mined monthly
g. About half of mined gold are used for jewellery
h. 2026 target: US$4900 GS;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver; Higher; US$59 from US$56 from US$50;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 91; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper. Lower; US$5.36 from US$5.46 from US$5.28;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 5.19
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Bitcoin. Higher; US$90,335 (as of Dec 13, 2025 @ 7.25 AM) from US$89,353 last week from US$90,968 two weeks ago;
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$127,000
i. Support: US$80,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk Off (Data as of Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index; Higher; "42 Fear" from "40 Fear" last week from "24 Extreme Fear" two weeks ago
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities; Lower; 6827 from 6870 last week from 6849 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6540; 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 6850; 6890 (Oct 2025); 7000
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 23; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 41; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 26,000; Support: 22,100; 21,000; 17,000;
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold: 1.9
i. No Trade

2. HK Equities; Lower; 25959 from 26085 last week from 25858 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800 (Apr 2025); 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 27300 (Oct 2025); 30,000; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. 2006 Target: 27,500 MS;
e. No Trade

3. Shanghai Equities; Lower; 3889 from 3903 from 3889;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
e. 2006 Target: 4840 MS;
f. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1638 from 1617 from 1604:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1550, 1580; 1605; 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Sold 1/4 Perak Transit
d. Sold Alliance Bank


Currencies: Risk On (Data from XE.com on Dec 13 @ 7.45 AM)

1. USD to JPY; JPY Weaker; 156 from 155 last week from 156 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR; SGD Flat; 3.17 from 3.17 from 3.17;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. When to convert some SGD to MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD; AUD Stronger; 0.67 from 0.66 from 0.65;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD; EUR Stronger; 1.17 from 1.16 from 1.15;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD; HKD Stronger; 7.7825 from 7.7850 from 7.7848;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR: MYR Stronger; 4.10 from 4.11 from 4.13;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD: SGD Stronger; 1.29 from 1.30 from 1.30;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing the finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY; CNY Stronger; 7.05 from 7.07 from 7.07;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD; Weaker; 98.39 from 98.99 last week from 99.48 two weeks ago; Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. The number of land parcels that sold for at least 20 per cent above the asking price accounted for 37 per cent of deals this year.
b. That compares with just 14 per cent for all of last year and 4.6 per cent in 2023.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
b. New projects declined 46% in 1H 2025
c. Increased of 19% in 1H 2025 on unsold properties
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 4.19% from 4.14% last week from 4.02% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Lower; 3.52% from 3.56 % last week from 3.50% two weeks ago;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Lower; 97.07 from 97.29 last week from 97.65 two weeks ago;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.

[winston]

TOL @ Dec 28, 2025

window-dressing.jpg

Window Dressing & Santa Rally (Part 3)?

The "CNN Greed & Fear Index" has recovered to "Greed 56" from "Extreme Fear 24" just a month ago.

Is the rise due over the past month due to "Window Dressing" activities and can the markets continue to rally next week?

Meanwhile, Cryptos are still weak (measure of sentiment) while the VIX still shows "complacency".

The 'K" economy is very distinct now. The "AI & Tech" sector are booming while the rest of the economy is like a "slow-motion train wreck".

Anyway, there is a good article from Smart Money this week, titled "The 5 Signs of Danger Ahead":-
1. Bubble-level valuations
2. Extreme concentration
3. Risky IPOs
4. Circular financing
5. Record stock ownership

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. US: Why are National Guards being deployed?
2. US: Tariff (Supreme Court)
3. Dec 08 - Dec 31: Year-End Window Dressing
4. Dec 29 - Jan 02: Santa Rally; Last trading week of Dec and the first two trading days of Jan; Tax-Loss Harvesting;
5. Jan 2026: January Effect; Small Caps Outperformance;
6. Jan 31: US Government Shutdown

I remained "cautiously bearish" and will continue to sell whenever any opportunity presents itself. My exposure to Equities is still at about 39%.


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower (39% from 41% last week from 42% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. HK: 28% (8 Counters); Tariff;
b. US: 33% (9 Counters); Stagflation?
c. Malaysia: 39% (9 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? Yen?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off; Data as of every Saturday;

1. WTI Oil. Lower; US$57 from US$58 last week from US$60 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak Global Demand: Surplus 2m bpd?
b. SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left; Trump replenishing SPR (US$20b);
c. OPEC+: Increasing output to regain market share
d. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
e. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 70
f. Drill Baby Drill = Lower Oil Prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold; Higher; US$4563 from US$4330 from US$4243;
Support: 3400; 2900; 1500; Resistance 4600
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Will Central Banks' demand (20%) > Retail Gold supply (80%)?
d. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024 (US$80b)
e. Central Banks are buying about 80 tonnes monthly
f. About 300 tonnes of gold are mined monthly
g. About half of mined gold are used for jewellery
h. 2026 target: US$4900 GS;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver; Higher; US$80 from US$59 from US$56;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 91; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper. Higher; US$5.85 from US$5.36 from US$5.46;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 5.19
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Bitcoin. Lower; US$87,358 (as of Dec 27 @ 7.58 AM ) from US$90,335 (as of Dec 13, 2025 @ 7.25 AM) from US$89,353 three weeks ago;
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$127,000
i. Support: US$80,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk On (Data as of Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index; Higher; "Greed 56" from "42 Fear" two weeks ago from "40 Fear" three weeks ago
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities; Higher; 6930 from 6835 last week from 6827 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6540; 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 7000
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 23; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 41; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: PE 30; Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 26,000; Support: 22,100; 21,000; 17,000;
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold: 1.9
i. No Trade

2. HK Equities; Higher; 25818 from 25691 last week from 25959 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800 (Apr 2025); 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 27300 (Oct 2025); 30,000; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. 2006 Target: 27,500 MS;
e. No Trade

3. Shanghai Equities; Higher; 3964 from 3890 last week from 3889 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
e. 2006 Target: 4840 MS;
f. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1677 from 1666 last week from 1638 two weeks ago:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1550, 1580; 1605; 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Sold PPB
d. Sold Ambank


Currencies: Risk On (Data from XE.com on Dec 27 @ 8.35 AM)

1. USD to JPY; JPY Weaker; 157 from 156 two weeks ago from 155 three weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR; SGD Weak; 3.15 from 3.17 from 3.17;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD; AUD Flat; 0.67 from 0.67 from 0.66;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD; EUR Stronger; 1.18 from 1.17 from 1.16;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD; HKD Stronger; 7.7715 from 7.7825 from 7.7850;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR: MYR Stronger; 4.05 from 4.10 from 4.11;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD: SGD Stronger; 1.28 from 1.29 from 1.30;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing the finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY; CNY Stronger; 7.01 from 7.05 from 7.07;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD; Weaker; 98.05 from 98.39 from 98.99; Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
b. New projects declined 46% in 1H 2025
c. Increased of 19% in 1H 2025 on unsold properties
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Lower; 4.13% from 4.19% from 4.14%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Lower; 3.48% from 3.52% from 3.56%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Higher; 97.16 from 97.07 from 97.29;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.