Russia 01 (May 08 - Jul 10)

[LenaHuat]

Wiki has an unreliable translation of the Russian anthem. I tried the official Kremlim website but couldn't get an English translated version.

Here's one from the University of Denver:

National Anthem of the Russian Federation
(music by A. Aleksandrov, words by S. Mikhailov)

1st verse:

Russia - our sacred sovereignty,
Russia - our beloved land,
Mighty will, great glory -
Are yours for all time!

Refrain:

Be praised, our free Fatherland,
Union of ancient fraternal peoples,
By our forefathers was given the wisdom of the nation,
Be praised, our land! We are proud of you!

2nd verse:

From the southern seas to the polar lands
Are spread our forests and fields.
You are unique in the world! Such is only you -
Our native land kept by God!

Refrain:

Be praised, our free Fatherland,
Union of ancient fraternal peoples,
By our forefathers was given the wisdom of the nation,
Be praised, our land! We are proud of you!

3rd verse:

A wide expanse for dreams and for life
The coming years open up to us.
Our loyalty to the Fatherland gives us strength.
So it was, so it is, so it will be always!

Refrain:

Be praised, our free Fatherland,
Union of ancient fraternal peoples,
By our forefathers was given the wisdom of the nation,
Be praised, our land! We are proud of you!

[winston]

Just noticed that Lyxor Russia ETF 2831 is now trading at around HK$36.

The high was around HK$54 and it has dropped 33% already.

Not vested. Better to let it drop some more in view of the various negative news coming out of Russia.

[winston]

Buy Russian Stocks on Ceasefire Possibility, Credit Suisse Says
By William Mauldin

Aug. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Investors should buy shares of OAO Gapzrom and OAO Rosneft because Russia's stock market may rise if there is a ``lasting cease-fire'' in the conflict with Georgia, Credit Suisse Group said.

``The Russian market has been punished excessively over the last couple of weeks,'' Credit Suisse analyst Vladimir Savov wrote in a note to investors today.

The 50-stock RTS Index has fallen to 2006 levels even though Russia's gross domestic product will rise to $1.64 trillion this year, compared with only $986 billion in 2006, the Swiss bank said. Oil averaged $66 a barrel in 2006, compared with $115 so far this year.

The RTS fell 6.5 percent on Aug. 8 as the conflict over the breakaway region South Ossetia escalated into what Prime Minister Vladimir Putin called ``war.''

A cease-fire and a ``long-term resolution'' to Russia's clash with Georgia in South Ossetia would be a ``catalyst'' for a recovery in Russia's stock market, Credit Suisse said. The RTS has fallen 25 percent since the end of December, heading for its worst year since Russia defaulted on its debt 10 years ago. The Micex Index has dropped 28 percent.

Besides Gazprom, the world's biggest natural-gas producer, and Rosneft, Russia's biggest oil producer, Credit Suisse recommended shares of OAO Lukoil, the second-biggest oil producer; OAO RusHydro, the world's second-biggest hydropower producer; and OAO Sberbank, the country's biggest bank.

[winston]

The Lyxor Russian ETF 2831 is now up 4.6%.

I think it is a technical rebound having fallen so much.

Need to think further whether I want to chase this one as the news coming out are still quite negative..

[kennynah]

news of war ceasure shd spring this high

[winston]

Emerging Markets-Russia rallies
By Carolyn Cohn

LONDON, Aug 12 (Reuters) - Russian assets rose in a relief rally on Tuesday after Russia said it was halting military operations in Georgia.

Russian stocks, the rouble and debt prices rallied and the cost of insuring Russian debt against default fell after President Dmitry Medvedev ordered an end to the military operation which started at the end of last week.

"Medvedev's call has triggered a rally in Russian markets, and to some extent it was taken positively by central European markets as well," said Beat Siegenthaler, chief strategist emerging markets at TD Securities.

After falling as much as 1.9 percent in early trade, the MICEX stock index rebounded and was up 3.4 percent.

The rouble strengthened by 10 kopecks to 29.55 against the central bank's euro/dollar basket, and sovereign debt spreads narrowed by 2 basis points over U.S. Treasuries.

Russia's five-year credit default swaps fell to 106/109 basis points from 114/115 before the news. CDS had traded as high as 126 bps on Friday, traders said.

Central European stocks .MIEE00000PUS rose 0.4 percent, but global emerging equities .MSCIEF dropped 1 percent to a one-year low.

GEORGIA IN MIND

Analysts said it might be too soon to call an end to the fall in Russian markets, as French President Nicolas Sarkozy sought a timetable for all sides to return to positions occupied before hostilities, and Georgia said it wanted more evidence that Russia was halting operations.

The damage to Georgia's economy may also be longer term, analysts said.

Fitch emerging European sovereigns analyst Edward Parker said any halt to Russian military operations would not reverse the ratings agency's downgrade of Georgia's credit rating last week.

"Going to war with Russia is bad for your creditworthiness, to put it mildly," he said.

[LenaHuat]

Russia (the bear), looks at China (the dragon) and decides he's got a real problem.
From Bloomberg 2day :

Forecasts of Russia's demographic decline are startling. The UN predicts that the country's population, currently around 140 million, will slump to anywhere between 70 million and 100 million by 2050.

When Putin doles out the equivalent of $10,000 to any Russian mother who has a second or third child, he has one eye on China.

[-dol-]

Mortality rates are high. Their love for the vodka is also not helping. They do not have soft bellies but beer bellies, perhaps.

Russia has offered explosive returns before. A possible buy when it is the worst-performing single-country ETF and a sell after it has become the best-performing single-country ETF. I am not sure any amount of analysis is better than just buying when there is blood in the streets ("buying when you are crying" ). - eg. during the rouble crisis in 1998. The examples of Yukos and Mechel should be instructive that it is not for the faint-hearted.

[winston]

`Shrill' U.S.-Russia Rhetoric to Hurt Russia Funds, Troika Says
By William Mauldin

Aug. 12 (Bloomberg) -- A confrontation between the U.S. and Russian leaders over the military conflict in Georgia may cause investors to pull money out of Russia funds, punishing the country's stock market, according to Troika Dialog.

U.S. President George W. Bush said Russia has ``invaded a sovereign neighboring state and threatens a democratic government elected by its people.''

``The shrill rhetoric between the U.S. and Russia may encourage more redemptions from international players, which would force the sale of already cheap stocks,'' Troika strategists Kingsmill Bond and Andrey Kuznetsov wrote in a note to investors today. ``There may be forced sellers'' on the market, they added.

Russia's RTS Index is down 24 percent this year, while the Micex Index has dropped 25 percent, amid falling commodity prices and speculation of greater political risk.

``Given that we remain positive on the currency and economic growth, this creates a good opportunity for value investors to pick up consumer and infrastructure stocks from forced sellers,'' Troika said.

[Chiron]

Who is gg too far to test each other patience? US or Russia? If drag too long, not good for the equity market if they decide to look to their left and see the situation.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7563182.stm