Brazil

[winston]

Brazil announces $6.65 bn spending cut

Brazil said Friday it will immediately cut government spending by $6.65 billion to balance the budget and achieve the goal of a primary fiscal surplus of 2.3 percent of GDP."

http://www.france24.com/en/20130705-bra ... ending-cut

[winston]

Time To Hit The Pause Button On Investing In Emerging Markets

by Jim Lowell

http://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/20 ... g-markets/

[winston]

SOME GOOD ADVICE ON BRAZIL

Yesterday, we checked out some of the best-performing stocks. But how about some of the worst? To find them, we head to Brazil…

Back in early 2011, we used Brazilian stocks to issue this timely warning on the commodity market. Brazil is a popular destination for investors who want exposure to commodities. It's a major producer of soybeans, cattle, corn, coffee, sugar, and iron ore. Much of this production heads to China, Brazil's largest trading partner.

Since our warning, the Chinese economy has slowed… and Brazilian stocks have been crushed. For details, we consult the major Brazilian investment fund (EWZ).

As we noted yesterday, we monitor a list of more than 70 investment funds. The list covers every major country, sector, commodity, and currency. Right now, the Brazil fund "boasts" the worst 12-month return (-21%) of our country funds. When interest toward commodities sinks, so do Brazilian stocks.


Source: Daily Wealth

[winston]

The 50%-Plus Trade in Brazil By Brett Eversole
Monday, September 23, 2013

Emerging markets are pushing higher… and this could be the start of a 50%-plus move.

While U.S. stocks soared over the last few years, emerging-market stocks were on a one-way course downward.

Since early 2012, the largest emerging markets (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) all saw their stock markets decline. Brazil, for example, fell nearly 30%… while U.S. stocks soared over 30%.

But I think a new uptrend just got started. And we have a safe opportunity to make big gains over the next 12 months…

For the better part of four years, Brazilian stocks have been "dead money." The iShares MSCI Brazil Fund (EWZ) holds a basket of Brazil's largest stocks, including oil giant Petrobras and mining giant Vale.

If you bought EWZ in 2009, you'd be sitting on a 16% loss today. (If you'd bought the U.S.-based S&P 500, you'd be up 77%.)

Earlier this year, Brazil's bear market reached its "puke point." EWZ lost 25% in a six-week stretch from late May to early June. That kind of irrational blow-out often happens at market bottoms… Everyone rushes out. The price doesn't matter.

And when there's no one left to sell, that's when prices can rise.

After the crash, EWZ moved sideways for a couple months… But starting in late August, the fund has moved up 20%. There's a lot more potential upside here.

The Ibovespa Index (the Brazilian S&P 500) trades for around book value today. That's half what it was trading for in 2010. And it's 35% below its 10-year average.

The chart below shows just how cheap Brazilian stocks have gotten… and the uptrend that's currently taking place. Take a look:

Brazilian stocks are cheap. And now, for the first time in years, they are in an uptrend.

The last time Brazil was this cheap, in 2003, EWZ returned over 100% in a year. And I believe we're in the early innings of a similar move today. I wouldn't be surprised to see EWZ increase 50%-plus over the next 12 months.

This reversal is a great sign for Brazilian investors. And since Brazil tends to move in step with other emerging markets, it's a great sign for emerging markets in general.

The last four years were brutal. But if this is the turnaround, the upside potential is phenomenal. You don't want to miss it.


Source: Daily Wealth

[winston]

Brazilian stocks are working on a new uptrend… country fund EWZ surges to its highest level in nearly three months.

[winston]

Brazilian stocks stage a big rally… Banco Bradesco and Petrobras rocket 22%-plus over the past month.

[winston]

Brazil is working on a new uptrend… country fund EWZ breaks out to a five-month high.

[winston]

Brazil's uptrend keeps gaining momentum… country fund EWZ surges to a new six-month high.

Brazil is going up but Commodities are still weak. What am I missing ?

[winston]

Here's How to Profit from Brazil Right Now By Jeff Clark

The entire world is focused on Brazil right now… and many folks are trying to profit.

Brazil is currently hosting the 2014 FIFA World Cup. Soccer is the most popular sport in the world. That's why, according to Las Vegas bookies, World Cup betting is twice as big as the Super Bowl.

So far, though, the popular bets aren't paying off.

Spain – the last World Cup champion – was the favored bet against both of its early round competitors. But Spain lost both games. Ghana was the slight favorite to win its game against the U.S… the U.S. won. Portugal was favored to beat the U.S. in Sunday's game… they tied.

It has been a rough ride for most of the gamblers betting on the World Cup games so far. So here's my advice if you really want to profit off what's going on in Brazil right now… Bet against the Brazilian stock market.

Let me explain…

The Brazilian stock market has moved sharply higher over the past few months. It's trading more than 20% above its March low. And everyone seems to think the rally will continue.

I don't.

The Brazilian stock market is near a peak and the odds favor a downside move from here.

Take a look at this chart of the benchmark Brazilian Bovespa Stock Index…

Please Enable Images to See this

As I said, the Brazilian stock market has moved sharply higher over the past few months.

But there's negative divergence on several technical momentum indicators right now. In other words, as the Brazilian Bovespa Stock Index has been making higher highs on the chart, the momentum indicators have been making lower highs. That's "negative divergence," and it's a strong warning sign that the rally is nearing an end.

The five- and 14-day relative strength indexes (RSIs) – short-term momentum indicators – are sloping downward. And the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) momentum indicator has been falling since early April.

This is an ideal setup for a short sale.

If you're looking to profit off the situation in Brazil right now, I would avoid betting on the World Cup games. Instead, take advantage of the chance to profit on the potential downside in the Brazilian stock market.

Source: www.growhstockwire.com

[winston]

Ignore the Mainstream News... Invest in This Growth Market By Frank Curzio

Struggling to catch my breath, I turned to my brother and said, "Run!"

We had just been doused with tear gas.

Two weeks ago, my brother and I flew to Brazil to see a quarterfinal game of the 2014 FIFA World Cup. Over 80,000 people filled the stadium in Brasilia (the capital city) to watch Argentina play Belgium.

I've been to hundreds of sporting events, but this one was different. Even though Belgium was playing, Brazil and Argentina fans made up roughly 90% of the crowd. The two countries have a long-standing rivalry. And the fans hate each other…

After the game ended, my brother and I found ourselves caught in the middle of thousands of screaming fans. It was fun at first, but the environment quickly became hostile.

People cursed at each other. Bottles and debris flew through the air. A plastic souvenir cup slammed into my brother's back. And then the police shot tear gas right next to us. I couldn't breathe. Tears swelled in my eyes. We had no choice but to run…

From this story, you might be tempted to believe the mainstream news that Brazil is a dangerous place… There have been rampant protests… Its economy is struggling… The country spent too much money on the World Cup building new stadiums… And it is spending too much money to host the Summer Olympics in 2016.

But these stories couldn't be further from the truth…

Yes, there were a few hostile fans after the soccer game my brother and I attended. But within five minutes, they had cleared out. A riot was avoided. Yes, there have been a few protests. But this is normal in every country during an election year.

And despite what the talking heads are saying, Brazil's economy is booming.

During my trip there, I traveled around Brasilia and Rio de Janeiro. I spent time talking to dozens of local businessmen, law enforcement officials, and cab drivers.

Restaurants were packed, airports were jammed, and beaches were crowded. Everywhere I looked, people were spending money. This is normal. After all, the World Cup is a premier international sporting event. Tourists from all over the world traveled to Brazil to cheer for their teams.

But the locals I talked to said business has been great over the past 12 months. They have never been this busy. A few locals laughed at the negative stories being written about Brazil. One said, "it's simply not true."

Based on what I saw, Brazil will easily recoup the money it spent building and renovating stadiums for the World Cup. These stadiums hold more than 80,000 people. And tickets for the "nosebleed seats" for quarter-final games were going for more than $1,000 each.

Hotel and restaurants charged double during the World Cup. And it was almost impossible to book a hotel room or get reservations at popular restaurants when I was in town.

The Olympics will bring in even more tourists. Only 32 teams qualified for the World Cup. But at the most recent Olympic Games, more than 200 countries participated. So Brazil is expecting even more tourists in 2016. Imagine how much these people will spend during the three-week event.

In the meantime, there's no reason for Brazil's economy to slow down. Ongoing construction for the Olympics will continue to create jobs and support businesses… Brazil is one of the most mine-friendly countries in the world with some of the largest gold and iron-ore deposits… big businesses are starting to invest in Brazil… and the country's offshore oil and gas reserves are just now starting to be tapped. In short, businesses in Brazil are – and will continue – seeing massive growth.

Take a look at this chart of the iShares MSCI Brazil Capped Fund (EWZ)…

Please Enable Images to See this

EWZ tracks some of the biggest large-cap and mid-cap stocks in Brazil. The fund is already up around 11% this year – easily outperforming the S&P 500. I expect this fund to continue to perform well over the next 12-18 months as Brazil's economy sees massive growth.

And I'm not the only one who is bullish on Brazil. This week, CNBC hosted the Delivering Alpha Conference in New York City. Each year, this conference is where the best hedge-fund managers in the world share their favorite ideas.

This year, legendary investors like Carl Icahn, Leon Cooperman, Nelson Peltz, John Paulson, Bill Ackman, and Stanley Druckenmiller spoke. Then Michael Novogratz took the stage to talk about his favorite ideas.

Novogratz is the chief investment officer of Fortress Investment Group. They have over $60 billion in assets under management. He doesn't get the same media attention as the Carl Icahns and John Paulsons… But Novogratz has one of the best track records in the business. It's why Institutional Investor magazine named him the "Hedge Fund Manager of the Year" last year.

He said investor pessimism is at an "all-time high" in Brazil. That makes it a great contrarian play. He believes the market is cheap, and we will see a rise in Brazilian assets through the October elections.

EWZ is the safe way to invest in Brazil. It trades at a 17% discount to the S&P 500 right now and yields over 3%. That's a 75% premium to the S&P 500.

But for those willing to take on more risk, the Market Vectors Brazil Small-Cap Fund (BRF) could offer big returns. This fund tracks the most popular small-cap stocks in Brazil. And it trades at a 30% discount to the S&P 500. It also pays a near-2% yield.

In short, Brazil is one of the fastest-growing markets in the world right now. And the fears and negative stories written about Brazil are overblown. As investors realize this, I expect these two funds to soar.

Source: Small Stock Specialist