USD 02 (Oct 09 - Sep 10)

[winston]

Weekly Review:

The dollar was down on the session. It was struggling, and it has been since making the new break higher in late March. It came out of the second consolidation since the downtrend break and has been bouncing laterally. It has not broken down, which is a positive, but it is testing the support line once more.

The dollar did lose a bit of ground (1.3496 Euro versus 1.3349 Thursday). Earlier in the week, the dollar was near breaking below 1.32 Euro very strong move, but it has given some of that back. It remains in its uptrend, but it is getting choppier.

That is something it did not show as much when it peaked on its second move. It is a very important week coming up for the dollar. There is nothing to impact the dollar other than what other countries do with respect to their currencies and interest rates.


Source: MarketFN.com

[investar]

huge gap this morning after Greece rescue plan.
has the trend turned, or is it too early to say that?

[kennynah]

technically, /DX is still on the rise until it breaks below 80.127 convincingly... tested this morning...and rebounded... /DX is now 80.605....

correlationally, there was a huge gap up on eur/usd this morning...it is now 1.3615...in the short term, we can aim for 1.38 level

[kennynah]

appreciate your comments please....thanks in advance...

i will Swing a Long position...with a ~80.2 GTC stop limit loss order in place... i'm banging on eur/usd filling today's gap up within this week...which means eur weakens against usd in the immediate days ahead...

[winston]

Looks like a "M" forming on the charts ...

A Bad Sign for the Dollar?
DateTuesday, April 13, 2010 at 06:46PM

The US Dollar index managed to close above its 50-day moving average every day of 2010 up until yesterday. As shown below, the currency has been in a very nice uptrend for quite awhile, but that uptrend is now in serious jeopardy.

Yesterday the dollar initially traded well below its 50-day and then fought back but couldn't quite close above it. Today it briefly traded above the 50-day -- which is now acting as resistance instead of support -- but it failed to hold by the end of the day.

While a few basis points above or below a 50-day moving average may not seem like a big deal, its importance to technical traders should not be overlooked.

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2 ... ollar.html

[kennynah]

the eur/usd that gapped up a few days ago....is today effectively been closed up...

eur/usd gapped up from 1.3501... today, the lowest price is 1.3517 formed at 5pm...and bounced up since then to now 1.3553

and so, whether /DX will continue to climb higher from here is anyone's guess... but on my charts, i have a /DX support at ~80.12 and resistance at ~81.90.../DX is currently 80.695....

my bet...

a Long swing...

[winston]

Weekly Review

The dollar was up on the session (1.3508 Euro versus 1.3574 Thursday). There were more Greek worries that were attributed to helping boost the dollar. The China issue and a general flight to safety pushed the dollar and US Treasuries higher. The dollar is still struggling, however.

There is a ABCD pattern, and that is what you have to watch for. It looks like it is making a lower high, and it has made a lower low. It looks like the string is broken, but we will have to see. Holding at the 50 day EMA that is rising up below it.

Maybe it gives is renewed breakout. This is a critical point for the dollar. Looking at the ABCD pattern, it could go either way. There has been pressure on the dollar, but it was the flight to safety that brought it back around on Friday.


Source; MarketFN.com

[kennynah]

/DX is currently ~81.5, my target remains at 81.95 within the next 2 sessions..

DBS is selling greenback for 1.38 today:)

[kennynah]

quite clearly....eur/usd has a major support at ~1.327... we are almost there...lowest today @ 1.3314

[winston]

Weekly Review

The dollar started the day strong, but it was not able to hold that gain at least against the basket of currencies on the DXY0. It did finish lower against the Euro after starting stronger on the day (1.3369 Euros versus 1.3291 Thursday). As the dollar reversed, the stock market seemed to pick up momentum toward the end of the day. It was also stronger Friday morning before it reversed.

The dollar is still in good shape because it rallied back. It was in trouble over the last three weeks, but it has broken back up and looks solid. It had a boost of last week because of the issues in Greece. On Friday there was a reason that the dollar reversed after starting stronger: Greece finally gave in and asked the IMF to bail them out because the austerity programs were not being well-received by the market. Of course they are not.

Every time the Greek government announced a modest (at best) austerity package, the pension holders and workers had strikes and rioted in the street. The market was not too sanguine about what Greece was trying to do, because it knew it would not fly with the workers. After Greece initially said it wanted IMF help and the dollar surged, things calmed down and the dollar faded. It is still in decent shape, but it sold back on the session.


Source: MarketFN.com