Nassim Taleb / Universa Investments

[winston]

Taleb Questions Why Bernanke, Geithner, Summers Still in Posts By Le-Min Lim

Sept. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Nassim Taleb, author of “The Black Swan,” questioned why Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and National Economic Council Director Lawrence Summers are still in their posts.

“Bernanke, Geithner and Summers didn’t see the crisis coming so why are they still there,” Taleb told a group of business people in Hong Kong.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... qg1uGKatgA

[kennynah]

not all crisis can be seen in advance.... if they were all predictable, they were be called black swans...and those crisis would have been averted...

but his point about always catering for black swan events, is a sound, though rhetorical, advice...

[winston]

Nassim "Black Swan" Taleb protests Bernanke out of disgust.
From Zero Hedge:

And so economists begin their protest against the perpetuation of the farce that is US economics, and the madman in charge of the USS Titanic - Ben Bernanke.

Nassim Taleb has decided to go into exile courtesy of the imminent reappointment of the man who not only caused the near destruction of the financial system, but with his actions has sealed the fate of America's middle class.

In a post titled, "Good Bye! The reappointment of Bernanke is too much to bear," Taleb bids farewell and shares his disgust with the bullshit that the Wall Street

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/nassim ... nted-exile

[kennynah]

maybe he lost too much money??? that blackswan never quite flew by him....who knows...

[winston]

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of "The Black Swan," said "every single human being" should bet U.S. Treasury bonds will decline, citing the policies of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and the Obama administration.

It's "a no brainer" to sell short Treasuries, Taleb, a principal at Universa Investments LP in Santa Monica, California, said at a conference in Moscow today. "Every single human being should have that trade."

Taleb said investors should bet on a rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, as long as Bernanke and White House economic adviser Lawrence Summers are in office, without being more specific.

The Fed and U.S. agencies have lent, spent or guaranteed $9.66 trillion to lift the economy from the worst recession since the Great Depression, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. President Barack Obama has increased the U.S. marketable debt to a record $7.27 trillion as he tries to sustain the recovery from last year's recession. Obama projects the U.S. budget deficit will rise to a record $1.6 trillion in the 2011 fiscal year.


Source: Bloomberg

[millionairemind]

It's "a no brainer" to sell short Treasuries, Taleb, a principal at Universa Investments LP in Santa Monica, California, said at a conference in Moscow today. "Every single human being should have that trade."

Taleb said investors should bet on a rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, as long as Bernanke and White House economic adviser Lawrence Summers are in office, without being more specific.

Is it really a no-brainer?? If yes, Y isn't more ppe. doing it? If more ppe. are doing it, then how can it be effective??

The hardest trades are the ones that is most difficult, not the no-brainers

[kennynah]

i agree...when everyone sees it...the opportunity is usually lost.....

i'm quite surprised a person of his stature in the investment space could publish such an amateurish article

[winston]

I dont think many people have been shorting US Trasuries.

Everyone has been expecting interest rates to remain very low for a long time.

[winston]

Taleb: Shorting Treasuries Is A No Brainer By: Dan Weil

Financial guru Nassim Taleb says everyone on earth should short Treasuries, thanks to the exploding U.S. budget deficit and potential inflation.

He said at a conference that investors should keep a majority of their portfolio risk free and apply maximum risk to the rest.

As for Treasuries, “It’s a no brainer, every single human should short U.S. Treasury bonds,” said the hedge fund adviser and financial author.

“So long as you see the picture of Larry Summers going to Davos, you have to stay short U.S. Treasuries for another year. It means they (the Obama administration) don’t know what’s going on,” Taleb said.

“Every time you see the picture of what’s his name, (Federal Reserve Chairman Ben) Bernanke, and he still has that job, you have to run to make sure your position is active. So long as these two guys are in office, that’s the trade.”

Taleb also recommends betting on hyperinflation using options to buy gold and silver and sell Treasuries.

“You have a very small probability of making money,” he said.

“But if you’re right, you’ll never see a public plane again.”

Taleb isn’t alone in his bearishness on Treasuries.

Hedge fund heavies such as John Paulson also see Treasury yields rising.

“It will be difficult for the government to withdraw the economic stimulus,” he said in a recent speech.

“An increase in the monetary base leads to an increase in the money supply, which leads to inflation.”

http://moneynews.com/StreetTalk/Nassim- ... /id/348993

[-dol-]

This fellow is wrong more often than right. However, he claims that he counts on being right when the big payoff comes along (the black swan events - i.e. hence giving him big profits) to more than make up for his many little losses.

Most mortals will get discouraged by a string of losses and throw in the towel just before the single big one that can right many wrongs come along. For them, perhaps they can hope for a string of modest profits and try to avoid the big loss that could wipe out their good work.

May be it's just me but I am none the wiser after seeing and hearing this fellow on CNBC. I did better with his books but still prefer Fooled by Randomness than The Black Swan because I am out of my depth with the latter. These geniuses are too much for me.