US - Economic Data & News 01 (May 08 - Jul 08)

[kennynah]

"beer" lah brudder.... bear endangered ...cannot eat one...

[HengHeng]

anyway from US movements i think tml another round of correction haiz .. yahoo deal sure pull asian market down...

The china side sure tio big time .. Alibaba .. time to look for cheap calls..

[kennynah]

ya man....yhooo really went to hong kong >15% drop...jia lat... naz got pulled down immediately.. that's really the excuse lah...

indexes only got power first 1 hour...then....been in the toilet ever since until now...yhoo news made it faster lao only..

[HengHeng]

if now no bargain hunter then liaoz .. but i waiting to buy yahoo leh ... lol .. dirty tactics by carl icahn ... anyway he always do this kind of thing one ..

Divide and conquer one .. anyway to me the lower it goes the better. Coz brains don't anyhow go anywhere one .. expecially for innovation. I think majority of the staff join yahoo because they cannot stand MSF .. so i think something would be worked out .. in the end.. so i just take the risk .. to buy a call .. just take it that i buy some toto tickets.

[kennynah]

some talks about some partnership ongoing with goog....release this info at same time as they annouce the Hong Kong msft deal...

anyways...they were $19 share... so even now at this price...tan tio liao lor...

[HengHeng]

mai lah .. haven august yet i don't dare to buy shares outright .. rather pay teta buy toto coupons.

[kennynah]

msft just released statement.... still can talk...wah liao these people... macam playing masat

[millionairemind]

S&P, Following Moody's, Finds Errors in CPDO Ratings Models

By Mark Pittman

June 13 (Bloomberg) -- Standard & Poor's said it found an error in models that assigned top credit ratings to constant proportion debt obligations, three weeks after rival Moody's Investors Service said it misgraded similar debt because of a computer glitch.

S&P, a unit of New York-based McGraw-Hill Cos., fixed the mistake in October, and there was no ``erroneous'' effect on the ratings, Vickie Tillman, an executive vice president at the firm, said yesterday in an e-mailed statement. Moody's said its error caused the company to give ratings as much as four levels above what the CPDOs deserved.

``We regularly conduct surveillance of our ratings, and in the routine course of that surveillance, we discovered one error,'' Tillman said. The mistake was in a trial version of the model and was used for initial ratings and monitoring, she said.

The disclosures come as ratings companies try to fend off criticism from lawmakers and the SEC for giving the highest rankings to everything from subprime mortgages to CPDOs that later plunged in value. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission this week proposed tougher rules on the companies to help prevent a repeat of the credit crisis.

``The ratings companies have definitely made mistakes in structured finance,'' said Don Quigley, who oversees $3.5 billion in assets as co-manager of the Julius Baer Total Return Fund in New York. ``Have they been damaged? Yes. Will they rectify it? I don't know how.''

S&P notified the SEC yesterday after the Moody's disclosure prompted the regulator to begin an inquiry into whether other errors occurred. S&P and Moody's awarded AAA ratings to the CPDOs, funds that used borrowed money to bet on credit-default swaps, some of which have since collapsed.

Model Error

Banks created at least $4 billion of the securities starting in 2006, promising investors annual interest of as much as 2 percentage points above money-market rates combined with the highest ratings.

S&P's model error affected five publicly rated transactions totaling $200 million and a private deal, Chris Atkins, a spokesman for S&P' said. S&P's mistake was made in March 2007 and wasn't detected until October, he said, when a surveillance analyst discovered that a percentage used to calculate cash flow was wrong. The ratings on all six transactions were recalculated using the right percentage and the change didn't affect the rating, Atkins said.

Ratings Stripped

Moody's and S&P stripped CPDOs of their top ratings this year as rising defaults in the U.S. housing market caused the cost of credit-default swaps referenced by the funds to soar amid concern the economy might fall into recession.

McGraw-Hill has declined 37 percent in the past year in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The shares fell 11 cents to $43.08 yesterday. Moody's, down 42 percent over 12 months, gained 84 cents to $39.29.

Moody's said it began an investigation into whether its staff covered up the errors. The company also retained law firm Sullivan & Cromwell.

``I would say it's fairly rare, but I've seen model errors in my time at Moody's,'' Noel Kirnon, an executive vice president for the firm's structured finance group, said during an investor conference June 5.

The discovery of errors typically leads to reviews of the firm's ratings on securities through new assessment of committees that assigned the initial ratings, Kirnon said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Pittman in New York at [email protected]

[millionairemind]

Oil prices drive inflation higher
Annual cost-of-living rate rises to 4.2% after higher-than-expected May increase. Energy costs surge 17.4% over 12 months.Last Updated: June 13, 2008: 9:27 AM EDT

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The cost of living rose in May, as consumers were belted by energy costs, the government said Friday.

The Consumer Price Index, a key inflation reading, rose 4.2% through the 12 months ended in May, according to the Labor Department. This compared to an increase of 3.9% during the 12 months ended in April.

For the month of May, overall CPI rose 0.6%, compared to an increase of 0.2% in April. That's the biggest increase since last November, when the overall CPI surged 0.9%. A consensus of analysts interviewed by Briefing.com had projected an increase of 0.5% for May.

The dramatic increase in energy costs were largely responsible for the overall inflation. Energy costs rose 4.4% in May, and surged 17.4% over the 12 months ending in May, the Labor Department said.

"These (CPI) numbers are nowhere near to what we're seeing in the real world," said Peter Beutel, energy analyst for Cameron Hanover, who believed the "real" cost of living has increased at a higher rate than the index shows. "But even these diluted numbers are showing that inflation is getting uglier and uglier and uglier."

Beutel said this puts more pressure on the Federal Reserve to increase the federal funds rate, which he thinks could happen in August or September. The rate is currently at 2%.

"The higher that inflation is, the sooner the Fed has to raise rates to help keep a lid on prices," said Beutel.

The index for fuel oil rose 10.4% in May and soared 64% over the 12 months. The index for natural gas rose 5.6% in May, and was up 16.5% over the last year.

Electricity costs also increased, but less dramatically, edging up 0.9% in May, and rising 5.8% over the last 12 months.

As a result, transportation costs increased 2% in May, and jumped 8.1% over the 12 months ending in May.

The index for household energy costs climbed 2.8% in May, its fourth consecutive jump, the Labor Department said.

The price of food also pushed up overall costs. Food costs increased 0.3% in May, and jumped 5.1% during the 12 months ending in May.

The core CPI, which excludes the cost of food and energy, rose 0.2% in May, compared to an increase of 0.1% in April. A consensus of analysts interviewed by Briefing.com had projected an increase of 0.2% for May.

The core CPI rose 2.3% during the 12 months ending in May.

[millionairemind]

Ran across an interesting piece of news....

No money, no honey (or rather, no breast implants??? Honey, you don't need another implant or lets do it via instalments, the left one first and the right one 6 months later.....)

hmmm how does it impact companies in Singapore?

Sluggish Economy Taking Its Toll On Cosmetic Surgery

It’s Getting Ugly Out There
High-ticket items are hurt the worst, though many firms are feeling the pain
BY STEVE WATKINS FOR INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY

Health care is a safe haven during a slow economy, right? That’s true for much of the sector, but parts of the health care field are just as susceptible to economic swings as cars, boats and furniture. In fact, you can call cosmetic treatment and laser eye surgery parts of consumer discretionary spending.

Some companies that provide these services say they’re seeing an impact from the downturn, and some don’t. But Anthony Vendetti, an analyst at Maxim Group, says the economy’s weakness is impacting the entire group. “There are companies that can buck this trend,” Vendetti said of the cyclical parts of health care. “But I don’t think any company is immune from the domestic downturn.”

Tumbling Shares
Unlike most parts of health care breast augmentation, wrinkle re moval and the like aren’t reim bursed by insurance or Medicare So companies in those areas rely on how much money consumers have to spare. The stocks show it. Shares of most providers of cosmetic surgery are trending down.
There’s no mystery why, analysts say. Plastic surgeons tell Piper Jaff ray analyst Thom Gunderson that their business is down 10% to 20 this year. That’s for procedures that might run $4,000 or more, such face-lifts, liposuction and breast aug mentation.
“Those are facing the realities the tough consumer economy that’ out there,” Gunderson said.
Botox and other methods used treat wrinkles don’t cost as much surgery. Some of those doctors’ businesses are up slightly, while others are down a bit, Gunderson says.
Sales of cosmetic lasers, which cost $100,000 to $200,000, are taking a big hit, says Jose Haresco, an analyst at Merriman Curhan Ford Group. They’ve gone from doubledigit growth to double-digit declines.
Most doctors need financing to buy such high-ticket items. As lending has tightened, loans haven’t been as available.
“That’s eviscerated a lot of the market opportunity,” Haresco said. Laser eye surgery volume was down 15% to 20% in the first quarter, Vendetti says. He expects it to fall more than that later this year.

Delaying Treatment
While Vendetti figures the slump is temporary, he doesn’t see signs of the cycle changing soon. It’ll take housing prices to stop falling and oil prices to dip to get the cycle turned, he says. Until then, some companies’ markets aren’t getting hurt as badly as others.

Treatments such as Botox require repeat injections. Patients aren’t dropping the treatments, but they are putting them off. Instead of every three to six months, they might go in every four to 10 months. “You try to maintain it and not just stop cold turkey, or your face will sag as fast as the economy has,” Gunderson said.

That’s helped companies such as Botox-maker Allergan AGN weather the storm. Allergan has managed to churn out double-digit sales and profit growth through the economic slump. It’s expected to do the same over the next four quarters. Still, the stock is down nearly 20% since hitting an alltime high of 70.40 on Jan. 14.

Innovation also makes a difference. Cosmetic laser firm Cynosure CYNO , which in January launched a SmartLipo laser fat-removal product, has run off six straight quarters of 41%-or-better sales growth. Earnings have grown at least 80% the last five quarters, and the company’s stock is up more than 20% since hitting a 52-week low on March 10.

“Some companies have products that are in such high demand that they’re able to buck this trend,” Vendetti said. Not every company is bucking it, however. Palomar Medical Technologies PMTI , which makes cosmetic laser systems, hasn’t grown the bottom line since the fourth quarter of 2006. Its stock recently fell to 10.36, its lowest point since January 2004.

Last quarter Palomar lost 5 cents a share — its first shortfall in years — and posted a 27% year-over-year sales decline. The slow economy was partly to blame, Chief Executive Joseph Caruso said during a conference call.

“For the first time we have had a substantial decrease in sales from some of our most seasoned sales reps,” Caruso said. “Physicians appear to be postponing major buying decisions. This trend is fueled by a decrease in physician confidence in consumer spending.”

Laser eye surgery stocks such as LCA-Vision LCAV also have taken a hit. Its procedures can run from $3,000 to $6,000, Vendetti says. That might be one reason sales grew only 1% last quarter and are expected to decline each of the next three quarters. Its stock currently trades at its lowest point in nearly five years.

Trading Down

Mentor MNT , which controls about half of the U.S. breast implant market, has fared better. It continues to grow sales in double digits, though earnings have been down. Still, the high cost of its procedures — $5,000 to $10,000 each — poses a risk.

Some patients opt for less expensive silicone implants, Haresco says. “If people are willing to do it, they’re choosing the cheaper option,” he said. As for when the sector might bounce back: Gunderson figures it was among the last to feel the pinch, so it might be the first to come back when things get better.

“But it really is going to take a rebound in the economy,” he said.
Haresco reckons the stocks will lag, saying the economy will have to show strength for at least a quarter before people are comfortable spending again. That could be a while.
“We don’t see a strong recovery anytime soon,” he said.