US - Market Direction 01 (May 08 - Jul 08)

[Cherry]

Kenny, your charts are great, especially with the labels, thanks. (By the way, you post at 5.29 am. Out of curiousity, have you not gone to bed yet, or are you an early bird?)

Millionairemind, your opinion in the summary of your read of the charts is of great help to people like me, thanks.

The pair of you make an excellent concert.

[winston]

Hi k & MM,

Thanks for your kind update.

I was thinking out loud on the US market last night and was looking for a catalyst that would start the correction in the US. That catalyst must be an " unquantifiable risk" for maximum fear eg. subprime in Feb or sars when people were dying in airplanes.

However, I have not been able to find such a catalyst yet. Every known risk that I know can be quantifiable..

If that is the case, perhaps the correction would not be a steep one but more like a "Chinese Water Torture" ? Would appreciate your kind comments.

Thanks and take care,
Winston

[kennynah]

Hi Cherry : welcome to Huatopedia, where everyday is a HUat HUat Day and too kind words lah.

MM : paiseh, encroached into your thread...but W thought it was better we merge the TA into this thread you started....

W : just TOL.... an assissination of any of the presidential candidates, could be one unquanitifiable risk. but that seems a little far fetched... let's see if DOW will go after the next targetted low and if it can do so successfully... hmmm.... stronger dosages of anitbiotics maybe needed to rid of its illnesses.



but frankly, as of NOW, naz is really in terrific shape, holding up the gains since Mar08, ... as MM stated, last week's rally, is technically still in tact.
it appears now to be forming the "handle" of the cup-handle...
if there is to be swift change in direction, this presents a great chance for Naz to "breakout"...and that barricade is the MA200... what a beautiful setup

[winston]

W : just TOL.... an assissination of any of the presidential candidates, could be one unquanitifiable risk. but that seems a little far fetched...

Hi k,

Thanks for the kind comments.

No, I don't think the assassination of one of the Presidential Candidates would be a big enough catalyst. That catalyst must hurt the economy very badly. Subprime & SARS would fit that bill as they were seen to be big, unquantifiable and unknown.

The market also has a few positives going for it ie. prospect of lower oil prices, rebate checks and higher US$. Suddenly the bad news have disappeared

Take care,
Winston

P/S need to decide by 4pm on what to do with my HSI puts. Shanghai is down 2.5% but HK is strong. Very strange..

[millionairemind]

K - No worries buddy, I am a "trepasser" here too... I am just happy to be able to post here without ppe. shouting in my face about the impossibility of mkt timing..

W,

I have long given up on trying to explain why mkt should go up or down... If mkt wants to go down like in January, I will just close out all my LONGS like I did on Jan 3 and watch it flamed on. As a trend follower, I have managed to get out just in time b4 the BIG one in the last few years. In a couple of occasions, when mkt is telling me to get out but I insisted that I was right and I stayed on, I was burnt.. ouch...

Mkt is what I liked to call - The Composite Man... It composes of its mood swings etc... It does not need an explanation to go down... the real reason will come in hindsight.

If you go back to 1987... just before the BIG CRASH.. and count the distribution days... there were 11 distribution days out of 22 trading days JUST before the BIG one on Oct 19. If one was alert enough, one would have closed out all the positions just before the BIG one..

Sorry for this roundabout... till mkt follows thro', I am sitting with the bears

Nasdaq has not undercut its lows yet.. it might... lets see who wins...

The NYSE short ratio still scares the hell out of me.. and I have learnt to respect the mkt cos' I am not smart like other investors who can buy stocks that don't go down with the mkt trend..

Cheers,
mm

[kennynah]

4Jun08hi,

for those who are SHORT financials or Long financial Ultrashrt ETFs... do be careful of a possible short term bounce upwards..

there are indicators to show some support levels for financials at this juncture...

take care

[kennynah]

4jun08 745pm +8GMT
originally, when i started a SP500 TA discussion thread, it was not intended to offer views as that usually contorts a more objective assessment based on facts given by Charts..

nevertheless, i shall move away from this original intent for this time.. bcos, it appears that many of us have been getting a lot more bearish bias, but not necessarily uncalled for. however, still, it is always important to stay cautious all the time.

finally, as of now, this is my take

the most notable change is that the S&P 500 closed below its 50-day MA yesterday. It was the first time it has done so since April 15. Just as importantly, the Dow closed below its May low. Continuing to show the most relative weakness, it was the first of the broad-based indexes to do so. The Nasdaq Composite is still desperately clinging to support of both its 20-day EMA and intermediate-term uptrend line from its March low.

However, a close below yesterday's low would cause both of those support levels to break, causing the Nasdaq to follow-through on its "head and shoulders" pattern an join the bear party as well. My near-term bias remains bearish overall, the intermediate-term bias is neutral (until the rest of the major indices form a significant "lower low" like the Dow), and i hold no long term view.

good luck folks...we are almost starting our US trading day...

have you bought your 4D yet ?

[winston]

I have moved the discussion on Foreign Estate Duty by bulltick & kennynah, into a newly created "Insurance Thread" in the "Other Investment Instruments & Ideas " section.

[Cherry]

Hi Kenny and Millionairemind

I miss your concert today.

Kenny, your charts and the explanatory labels in the charts together with Millionairemind's opinion are great. They are fresh educational materials from the oven for many forummers here. Please do not stop this beautiful duet, let it be ... BACK BY POPULAR DEMAND.

[millionairemind]

Hi Cherry,

Not much is happening day to day.. Mkt is still in correction mode and Nasdaq is still trying its' attempt rally...but it is being held back by NYSE, DOW and S&P.

The recent low for Nasdaq is around 2450... all the shortist will be watching this support line very closely. If it breaks on large volume, you can be sure the hedge funds will be out in full force with their knives and daggers...

The attempt rally from Nasdaq is still intact till it breaks 2450... I am just sitting on the side trying to either go long if the rally attempt succeeds or add more shorts if it breaks 2450..

K might have more things to add...he is a better chartist than I am.. I am just fiddling around

Hope this helps.

Regards,
mm