Value Investing 01 (May 08 - Dec 08)

[iam802]

always good to prepare for the worst.

after all, have we not learn from Barings, Enron, Worldcom, Lehman, AIG, and how auditing firms, and other financial institutes are all exposed.

Add to that Iceland is also bankrupt.

The bigger the 'system', the bigger the impact.

[kennynah]

and the IR proj, I would apply the same assumption leh... ah gong will support lar...
if ah gong no give support, who else will?

have fun,
fc

maybe singapore gamblers' federation?

[blid2def]

...wrote off their loans for each of the IR projects?

hi gr,

sorry, i dun have the info off-hand... pai seh...
write-off? thats very pessimistic leh... 100% cannot recover meh?
if ah-gong take over, still will honour the loan rite?

there're some assumption on my part of tracking the banks...
1 assumption is that ah gong will not let the 3 local banks fail...
and the IR proj, I would apply the same assumption leh... ah gong will support lar...
if ah gong no give support, who else will?

have fun,
fc

Haha, no issue. Yeah lah, I don't expect it to be totally written off also, but I usually like to see the sibei chialat case scenario and see what it can potentially be like.

[blid2def]

and the IR proj, I would apply the same assumption leh... ah gong will support lar...
if ah gong no give support, who else will?

have fun,
fc

maybe singapore gamblers' federation?

Huatopedia will support. Our per-share book value is now higher than the banks.

[kennynah]

that's right...if we need some cash for this project... h2 can always sah ah long on our behalf...

[blid2def]

that's right...if we need some cash for this project... h2 can always sah ah long on our behalf...

Oh yah, forgot the power of sah ah long! Hahaha... but I think he now sah ah long to buy GS.. $92 liao!

[fclim]

maybe singapore gamblers' federation?

hmm... this one sounds familiar... headed by knn? hahahhaha....

but hor, if you got frens / relative really need help with gambling problem, can try the National Council on Problem Gambling, NCPG (Sg): http://www.ncpg.org.sg/

have fun,
fc

[HengHeng]

lol opened by ah long heng lol ..

[blid2def]

fc - thanks for keeping us posted on this. I'm sure I can dig and work it out myself, but in case you have the info on hand - do you know what's the impact on NAV if the respective banks wrote off their loans for each of the IR projects?

Anyway, answer my own question... assuming 2.2bn total loan across 3 banks, in a 4:3:3 breakdown (UOB : OCBC : DBS - I know someone posted the estimated loan values last week but I can't find it anymore)

UOB: $0.58 / share (~1.5 bn ordinary shares)
OCBC: $0.21 / share (~3.1 bn ordinary shares)
DBS: $0.16 / share (~4.1 bn ordinary shares)

Not sure if these numbers make sense (esp. the shareholdings numbers).

[fclim]

hey did someone /something supported the index stocks?

from what i see about 10 mins ago, losers outpaced gainers by 155 to 410, as seen in my watchlist... all are hong hong (red red), except for the STI stocks? hee...

also hor, e 3 banks listed above turned from as bad as -10% to now about +2%?
what a fantastic turnaround... no FA/TA/SA/whatever-A can predict this right? heee....

i come up with 1 more A now... AGA - Ah-Gong Analysis....
maybe it is ah-gong power to the rescue?

have fun,
fc