Grab

[winston]

not vested

Prioritizing growth over nearterm margin expansion

Affordability strategy drives growth In 2Q25, Grab posted strong top-line growth despite softer macro in emerging (EM) ASEAN markets.

We think the near-term focus is on expanding TAM on the back of an affordability push although it may come at the cost of slower margin expansion.

We also see Grab taking the right steps within the AV space which, in our view, opens new growth/monetisation opportunities.

We raise our 2025-27 GMV growth expectations by 1-2% but maintain our adj. EBITDA estimates.

We as well incorporate recent CB issuances but retain TP of US$5.85. Maintain BUY.

Source: Maybank

https://mkefactsettd.maybank-ke.com/PDFS/474622.pdf

[winston]

not vested

Grab reports Q2 2025 earnings of US$35 million on higher revenue and margins

This is driven by operating profit and lower finance costs, and also partially offset by higher income tax expenses in Q2 2025

by Benjamin Cher

Superapp Grab reported Q2 2025 earnings of US$35 million, reversing from a loss of US$53 million in the same year-ago period.

This was driven by operating profit and lower finance costs, and also partially offset by higher income tax expenses in Q2 2025.

Revenue for the period grew 23 per cent to US$819 million from US$664 million the year prior. Operating profit also rose to US$7 million in Q2 2025 from a loss of US$56 million in Q2 2024.

Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) rose 69 per cent to US$109 million from US$64 million.

he company is still guiding for revenue to be between US$3.3 billion and US$3.4 billion with a 19 to 22 per cent growth. Adjusted Ebitda is guided to be between US$460 million and US$480 million with a 47 to 53 per cent growth.

Source: Business Times

https://www.businesstimesintl.com/compa ... nd-margins

[winston]

not vested

What if Uber exits its minority stake in Grab?

What’s new? Uber has announced a USD20b in share buyback program.

With over USD3b still to be executed from previous approvals, the total buyback commitment now exceeds USD23b, equivalent to around 12% of Uber’s market cap.

Management plans to fund the program primarily through free cash flow, allocating roughly 50% of FCF p.a. to repurchases.

Additionally, as per company CFO, Uber will opportunistically recycle proceeds from the sale of its minority equity stakes to fund both buybacks and selective ecosystem investments, such as autonomous vehicle (AV) partnerships.

Source: Maybank

https://mkefactsettd.maybank-ke.com/PDFS/476857.pdf

[winston]

not vested

Grab Holdings | PDF
Financial services: a turnaround story

GRAB US / GRAB.O | ADD - Upgrade | USD6.05 tp:USD7.000
Mkt.Cap:US$24649.00m
Avg.Daily Vol:US$232.40m | Free Float:77.10%

Grab’s Financial services segment is on a turnaround path, with losses expected to narrow sharply and achieve breakeven by end-2026F, it said.

We expect adjusted EBITDA to grow 14% qoq to US$124m in 3Q25F, with higher on-demand GMV, coupled with stable margins.

We upgrade Grab to Add, with a higher TP of US$7.00, reflecting FY27F valuation and higher DFS segment value on improving profitability.

Source: CGS

https://rfs.cgsi.com/api/download?file= ... 06dbf8c666

[winston]

FY26F profitability to surprise the street

We raise FY26F group adj EBITDA by 11% bringing us 28% above consensus, led by deliveries.

Grab is scaling up GrabMart & Dine-out offerings in FY25F, whose margin impact should be evident in FY26F

BUY with a higher TP of USD7.55. Potential catalyst would be higher than expected deliveries GMV growth in 3Q25F

We raise FY26F group adj EBITDA by 11% bringing us 28% above consensus, led by deliveries.

Grab has set a medium-term adj EBITDA to GMV target of 4% for deliveries which we think can be achieved in 2H27F.

We project 2.2%/3.2% adj EBITDA to GMV in FY25F/26F, higher than consensus margin of 2.0%/2.4%.

Consensus seems to be extrapolating FY26F margins based on FY25F margins, ignoring the timing of new product launches.

We posit further upside to our projected margins in case of potential exit of Foodpanda from Singapore and Malaysia as we doubt if Foodpanda can achieve EBITDA breakeven in Singapore and Malaysia.

With Grab scaling up solo meal delivery (GrabFood for One) and online grocery delivery (GrabMart), which have been traditional strongholds of Foodpanda,

Foodpanda’s intent of achieving EBITDA breakeven in Singapore, may be even more challenging in our view.

Source: DBS

https://www.dbs.com/insightsdirect/comp ... ecid=28130

[winston]

not vested

Strong growth warrants premium valuation

Cruising ahead; Raise TP to USD6.62 from USD5.85

We reiterate BUY on Grab and increase our SoTP-based TP by 13% to USD6.62 after rolling forward valuations to FY26E.

We forecast GMV growth of 20%/18% YoY in FY25/26, supported by offerings that focus on affordability and service expansion (eg, dine-outs and GrabMart) even as consumer sentiment weakens in Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines.

Competition remains stable, while early moves to introduce autonomous vehicles position Grab ahead of peers to capture future adoption in markets such as Singapore (link).

Robust fintech growth should persist, driven by merchant expansion (ecosystem lending) and the ongoing digibank push.

We expect a strong 3Q25, with >20% GMV growth and higher margins, potentially prompting upward guidance revisions by management.

Source: Maybank

https://mkefactsettd.maybank-ke.com/PDFS/490894.pdf

[winston]

not vested

Grab raises earnings forecast as new products help fuel demand

By Olivia Poh

Predicted US$490 million to US$500 million in adjusted full-year earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, more than the as much as $480 million it had forecast earlier.

Grab also narrowed its full-year sales forecast range, keeping the higher end unchanged at US$3.4 billion.

New products such as shared rides and group food orders are helping Grab fend off competition from Indonesia’s GoTo Group and smaller contenders.

Revenue rose 22% to US$873 million for the three months through September, Grab said.

Adjusted Ebitda also beat estimates at US$136 million.

Source: Bloomberg

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/777401

[winston]

not vested

Grab reports Q3 earnings of US$37 million on positive operating profit
Revenue is up 22% to US$873 million from US$716 million the year before

by Chloe Lim

The company also reported an operating profit of US$27 million in the quarter, reversing from a loss of US$38 million in Q3 2024.

On-demand GMV rose 24 per cent year on year, or 20 per cent on the year on a constant currency basis, to US$5.8 billion.

Total loans disbursed increased 56 per cent year on year to US$886 million in Q3.

Source: Business Times

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/compan ... ing-profit

[winston]

Growth momentum across all segments

Grab delivered a strong 3Q25 performance, beating street estimates, with robust growth across all segments.

Product innovations and higher user engagement continue to lift margins despite near-term dilution from new product offerings.

Maintain Add with a higher US$7.20 TP on operating leverage and improving profitability; Financial Services segment on track to break even by 2H26F.

Source: CGS

https://rfs.cgsi.com/api/download?file= ... 258DBC76D9

[winston]

not vested

Solid 3Q25, but slightly temper forward margin expectations

Strong 3Q25, raise FY25E EBITDA, trim fwd margins

Factoring in the firm 3Q25 results and with momentum likely to sustain in a seasonally strong 4Q25, we raise our FY25 Grab adjusted EBITDA forecast by 3%.

However, we trim our forward adjusted EBITDA forecasts by 1-3% by factoring in a slightly slower pace of improvement in margins given the larger growth tilt towards product innovation and affordability initiatives.

Still we expect adjusted EBITDA for FY24-27 to expand by 50% CAGR on the back of 18% GMV growth and scale effect amid soft competition.

Maintain BUY on Grab, but trim TP by 2% to USD6.50. Cut profit forecasts by 7-13%.

Source: Maybank

https://mkefactsettd.maybank-ke.com/PDFS/495305.pdf