Market Timing 07 (Nov 22 - Dec 25)

[winston]

The Bond Market Gives the ‘All Clear’ Signal

by Brett Eversole

Stock investors panic at any sign of trouble. But bond investors only worry when the storm clouds are worth paying attention to.

The big indicator at the time was the interest-rate spread between risky high-yield bonds and risk-free U.S. Treasury bonds. When this spread spikes, it means bond investors are worried about defaults on risky bonds. And that only happens when a recession is imminent.

That means we don’t have to worry if the stock market rebound is a false move higher. Instead, we can trust the rally – and get bullish.

Source: DailyWealth.com

https://dailytradealert.com/2025/06/18/ ... ar-signal/

[winston]

Caution: The Stock Market May Pull Back in the Short-Term

by Jeff Clark

The relentless rally off the April low has created overbought conditions, which is generating multiple caution signs.

Folks who are looking to put money to work in the stock market ought to hold off at least for a few days.

There’s a good chance we’ll have a better opportunity to buy stocks at lower prices in the days ahead.

Source: Jeff Clark Trader

https://tradesoftheday.com/2025/06/30/c ... hort-term/

[winston]

Blue skies until July 28th

According to the seasonality tool, we’re in a bullish time of year. Over the past 15 years, the stretch from June 28 through July 28 has averaged a 3.35% gain.

This year, we’re tracking that pattern nicely. As I write, the S&P is up 2.14% since June 27 (June 28 was a Saturday this year).

So, here’s where we stand: if you’re a short-term term trader, historical seasonal patterns are in your favor for about another week and a half. But that’s when things change…

The seasonality tool is flashing a cautionary yellow starting just days later, when history suggests we’re in for a pullback.

Over the subsequent three months, the S&P has averaged negative returns over half the time. The average three-month performance clocked in at -1.81%.

"I want to get ahead of a major market inflection point our tool says will hit on July 30.

I’m not talking about a crash or a bear market. But it is a market regime shift.

The takeaway isn’t “get out of the market,” but we do need to alter our strategy and expectations.

Specifically, between now and July 28th, consider rotating your short-term trading gains into your high-conviction buy-and-hold positions.

If you keep any trades open as we get into August, ride them as long as you can, but be ready to pivot if/when seasonal headwinds roll in.

Source: Investor Place

[winston]

Stocks Have Surged to New Highs — But There’s Still Plenty of Upside Ahead

by Brett Eversole

Right now, you might be falling for the three most expensive words in investing… I missed it.

Stocks just finished one of their most impressive three-month rallies in history. The S&P 500 Index was up 26% in the three months after its April low. And that pushed the index back to all-time highs.

One of the best ways to succeed as an investor is to focus on the trend. Assets that are rising tend to keep rising. This tendency is the antithesis of “I missed it.” And history shows it’s about to play out once again.

This is a powerful setup. It tells us that we haven’t missed it. The gains should keep piling up from here… and stocks have the potential to keep soaring for years as the bull market continues.

It’s easy to worry about missing your chance after the kind of rally we just saw. But don’t fall victim to that mistake. There’s still plenty of upside ahead.

Source: DailyWealth.com

https://dailytradealert.com/2025/07/25/ ... ide-ahead/

[winston]

Are investors overlooking the upside risk in markets?

Stronger earnings, improving market breadth, and modest investor positioning could keep markets advancing

The critical question is whether investors are focusing too much on what could go wrong and missing what is quietly going right

by Audrey Goh

The “Trump trade” – higher equities, a softer US dollar and lower yields – seems to be holding.

1. Earnings and growth momentum could surprise
2. Liquidity and positioning leave room for risk-taking
3. Momentum is self-reinforcing


Given this, we would adopt the following strategies:
* Staying invested in the growth theme
* Diversifying thoughtfully
* Balancing discipline with flexibility
* Reassessing allocations

Source: Business Times

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/wealth ... sk-markets

[winston]

Seasonality Tool

The basic idea is that certain price trends repeat year after year, regardless – not unlike the nature’s seasons.

Stocks don’t have summers and winters exactly. But we’ve been able to identify consistent, repeating cycles in stocks, currencies, and even commodities like oil and soybeans…

To give you an illustration of how it works, let’s look at the S&P.

The seasonality tool has flagged a major regime change – beginning now.

We have gotten a top around July 28. Then the market has stumbled before bottoming out in October.

Over the past 15 years, the S&P 500 has had an average return of -1.6%, falling as much as 15% during this window.

This doesn’t mean you need to get out of the market…

But it does suggest three responses:
1. Be ready for pullbacks and don’t let them shake you out of your high-conviction, long-term positions
2. Limit your bullish short-term trades to only those stocks that, historically, have shown they can climb during this historically weak season
3. Get cash ready to plow into to your high-conviction holds when they near their seasonal lows in the upcoming months

Source: Trade Smith

[winston]

These Three Indicators Tell Me the Nasdaq Uptrend Is Under Pressure

BY MIKE BURNICK

First, as you can see above, the number of stocks hitting new one-year highs outpaced those making new lows for 30 straight days. But that win-streak came to an end with last week’s market pullback.

Second, the technology sector had been on a stellar win streak of its own, trading one standard deviation above its 50-day price moving average for a stunning 55 straight days. That streak also ended with Friday’s pullback.

Third, as you can see above, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index has clearly turned down.

Bottom line: The decline in breadth tells me the uptrend in market-leading Nasdaq stocks may be under pressure. It could resolve itself in one of two ways: either a sideways trading range pause, or a steeper pullback in stocks. Now is the time to be prepared either way in advance.

Source: Jeff Clark Trader

https://jeffclarktrader.com/market-minu ... -pressure/

[winston]

This Time, We’re Following the Crowd

by Brett Eversole

In a bull market, overheated sentiment is the norm. It’s not always a reason to cut and run.

Of course, the market will eventually peak, just when investors think it can only go up. They’ll be wrong… But they’ll be right many times before that day comes.

That’s why we always stick with the trend. Right now, the trend is up. And according to history, the most likely outcome is that stocks will keep soaring from here.

Source: DailyWealth.com

https://dailytradealert.com/2025/08/21/ ... the-crowd/

[winston]

Stop Worrying Whether This Bull Market is Over

by Brett Eversole

Two Reasons We Know Stocks Are Healthy Right Now

My favorite indicator of market health is the advance/decline line of the New York Stock Exchange. This indicator takes the number of winning stocks minus the number of losers each day. Then, it adds today’s total to yesterday’s and builds a cumulative data series.

When the advance/decline line is rising, that means more stocks are rising than falling. And it’s a simple, effective way to gauge market health.

S&P 500 Equal Weight Index.

This comprises the same stocks as the typical S&P 500. But instead of weighting them based on market cap, it holds each equally.

The equal-weight index broke out to a new high earlier this month.

Source: DailyWealth.com

https://dailytradealert.com/2025/09/05/ ... t-is-over/

[winston]

3 Reasons the Summer Melt-Up Isn’t Over Yet

I’m feeling a little more bullish than normal heading into September.

By Louis Navellier

Reason #1: Strong Corporate Earnings
Reason #2: Monetary Easing
Reason #3: AI-Led Productivity Gains

Source: Growth Investor

https://investorplace.com/market360/202 ... -over-yet/