Agriculture Sector

[behappyalways]

Visualizing The Global Implications Of Fertilizer Shortages
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... -shortages

[behappyalways]

The Value Of Agriculture To European Economies
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... -economies

[winston]

China Asks Fertilizer Makers to Halt Urea Exports on Price Surge

by Hallie Gu

Urea futures traded on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange surged almost 50% over a seven-week period from mid-June to the end of July, but prices have fluctuated since then and are around 11% lower this week.

China is the world’s top producer and consumer of urea and any significant decline in exports threatens to tighten supplies and push up global prices.

Among the biggest export markets for the nation’s crop nutrient are India, South Korea, Myanmar and Australia.

Source: Bloomberg

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-as ... 16780.html

[winston]

‘Load Up,’ Says Barclays About These 2 Agribusiness Stocks

1. Nutrien, Ltd. (NTR)
2. Mosaic Company (MOS)

Source: TipRanks

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/load-say ... 59901.html

[winston]

World’s food security is facing a triple threat

Humanity’s risk of starvation is going up with falling crop yields, strained water supplies and restrictive food trade

Yield growth for the three main cereals – corn, rice and wheat – has nearly flatlined over the past five years.

by David Fickling

Humanity is better fed than at almost any point in its history. This comes from three major developments: yield improvements, water usage and trade.

Farm output has consistently grown by more than 2 per cent a year for six decades, Since 2020, it has slowed to 1.6 per cent.

Some 70 per cent of the world’s aquifers are now in long-term decline, threatening the viability of systems that provide about half of our household water and 40 per cent of
irrigation.

Net exports of corn, rice, wheat, vegetable oil and sugar from the US in 2024, contained about 2.7 trillion calories of nutritional energy – sufficient to feed America’s own population for a year.

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/opinio ... ple-threat

[winston]

Iran War Disrupts Fertilizer Supply Chain

“Beyond energy, another risk receiving less attention is the potential knock-on effect on food prices, as fertilizer shortages push agricultural costs higher,” said Wolfe Research chief economist Stephanie Roth in a note written on Tuesday.

Roth estimates the disruption could raise “food-at-home” inflation by roughly 2 percentage points, adding about 0.15 percentage points to headline inflation in the U.S., on top of roughly 0.40 percentage point increase from energy.

More than one-third of globally traded fertilizer passes through the Strait of Hormuz, making it a critical artery for agricultural supply chains.

Source: CNBC

[behappyalways]

[CNN Highlights] War Causes Fertilizer Prices to Surge by 30%! American Farmers Lament "We Can't ...
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dhLRqlYpEoM

[winston]

The Hormuz fertiliser crisis is a win for China

By DAVID FICKLING

Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Oman – are key to supplies of two of the three most important crop nutrients.

They account for about a quarter of the world’s exports of urea, which provides nitrogen to plants and encourages lush, leafy growth.

They’re arguably even more important for phosphorus, which stimulates healthy fruit and seeds.

Making phosphorus fertilisers involves stripping sulfur out of petroleum, turning it into sulfuric acid, and then using it to dissolve hard phosphate rock.

Roughly a third of this sulfur ultimately derives from Middle Eastern oil and gas.

The European Union exports more fertilisers than the GCC.

Canada and Morocco are the dominant players in, respectively, potash and phosphate.

The Ukraine war barely upset Russia’s position as the world’s biggest fertiliser exporter.

China produces about 44% of the world’s phosphate, 30% of nitrogen, 23% of sulfur and 13% of potash.

India will be most vulnerable.

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/ins ... -for-china

[winston]

Assessing the Iran War's Impact on Global Fertilizer Supplies

What's Happening:
Shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are constraining global fertilizer supplies, driving sharp price increases and disrupting trade flows for key agricultural inputs. The Gulf region accounts for a major share of global fertilizer exports, and blocked shipping routes, rising energy costs and logistical delays are removing millions of tonnes of supply from global markets.

What it Means:
If disruptions persist, the result could be lower crop yields, rising food prices and growing fiscal strain for governments－especially in import-dependent regions like South Asia and Africa. Agricultural producers in major economies could also face margin compression, while global food security risks increase.

What Comes Next:
Even if fighting subsides, fertilizer supply disruptions are likely to linger due to backlogs, high insurance costs and continued uncertainty around Hormuz transit, extending pressure on global markets.

Source: RANE Worldview

[winston]

Assessing the Iran War's Impact on Global Fertilizer Supplies

The Strait of Hormuz blockade is straining global supplies of nitrogen- and phosphorous-based fertilizers, which could lead to lower crop yields, higher food prices and fiscal strain for agricultural producers if the disruptions persist.

Source: Rane Worldwide