by winston » Mon Sep 18, 2023 8:33 am
Week 38 equity strategy
The highlight undoubtedly this week will be the Federal Reserve interest rate decision on 20 September.
Our base case of unchanged interest rates is aligned with the futures markets.
We do expect the Fed to sound hawkish and leave the door open to rate hikes if inflation reaccelerates.
On the latest inflation reading, core CPI in August was modestly lower at 4.35% YoY in August (prev. +4.65%).
Rent remains the primary driver of inflation, climbing 7%.
It is a notable lagging indicator despite the market rent declining continuously.
Rental CPI picked up from 4Q22.
We expect a more meaningful drop in rent inflation in the coming months as the base year comparison starts to fade out.
Market-based rental growth peaked in 1Q22.
Source: Phillips
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"