Warning Signs 01 (Oct 08 - Feb 15)

[winston]

This happened in 2007 just before the market plunged… and it could be happening again now

by Chris Kimble

Source: Kimble Charting Solutions

http://thecrux.com/this-happened-in-200 ... 37gMXBU%3D

[winston]

9 Ominous Signals Coming From The Financial Markets That We Have Not Seen In Years

By Michael Snyder

Source: The Economic Collapse Blog

http://www.thetradingreport.com/2014/10 ... -in-years/

[behappyalways]

If crude prices stay low for long, almost all the major oil producers will have to start dipping into their foreign reserves to fund their welfare states and military apparatus. The "fiscal break-even" price needed to cover the budget is $130 for Iran, $115 for Algeria and Bahrain, $105 for Iraq, Russia, and Nigeria, and almost $100 even for Abu Dhabi. The Saudis themselves are probably well above $90 by now.

This means that they will have to sell holdings of foreign bonds, assets, and gold to plug the gap.


World economy so damaged it may need permanent QE
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/econ ... nt-QE.html

[behappyalways]

One simple reason why global stock markets are reeling
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/econ ... eling.html

[winston]

The San Francisco Bubble Indicator by Harry Dent

The website, zerohedge.com, recently reported on an interesting indicator that makes perfect sense, but it’s one that I hadn’t seen before.

They reported that the San Francisco Case-Shiller year-over-year home price index. is the primary real estate market that foreshadows when the stock market or any other major bubble will crash. In other words, it’s the bubble that best forecasts other bubbles bursting.

The reason that San Francisco is unique is that it’s very bubbly from a very limited supply… it reflects both Silicon Valley and the tech bubble… and it also reflects the “mega” bubble that is China.

The Chinese dump a lot of money into the San Francisco area and when they stop it’s a sign that something is wrong…

See larger image

The earliest sign of trouble is when the year-over-year price increases initially rise above 20%. That can’t be sustained for long even in such a hot market.

Note how this index led the dot-com bubble crash and the tech wreck. It was down from early 2000 into mid- to late 2001. The Nasdaq crashed 79% from March 2000 to October 2002. This was the highest bubble in San Francisco reaching 31% before caving with the biggest stock bubble burst of our lifetime to follow.

After dropping to a low of -7%, the next rise took home prices there to a high of +24% in early 2005, just before the housing bubble peaked the following year. Since that was a real estate crash in essence, San Francisco saw one of the worst declines year-over-year, dropping a staggering -33% just from late 2007 to late 2008.

Overall real estate crashed 34% from top to bottom and that number is even greater than those from the Great Depression. Stocks crashed nearly 55% from late 2007 into early 2009.

The next round of rising home price gains in San Francisco were more limited as it was a short response to the first and most massive Fed stimulus (QE1). That advance peaked at +19% gains and was quickly countered by the sovereign debt crisis in Europe.

The index fell to -6% in late 2012 and stocks in the U.S. had their only major correction of the 2009 to 2014 bull market, down 20% into late 2011.

This latest bubble in San Francisco has been one of the largest in the U.S. since 2012 and has taken annual gains that reached a high of +26% in early 2013. Since then the index has fallen to +9%... a dramatic swing of 17 percentage points.

That would strongly suggest that this index has already peaked indicating that the next crash in stocks and the economy and real estate is going to come sooner rather than later.

A further confirmation will come when this index becomes negative which seems likely to occur in the next one or two quarters. By then the stock bubble should already be bursting.

Since I expect both a real estate and a stock crash greater than the last financial crisis, I wouldn’t be surprised to see San Francisco hit the -40%+ range sometime in the next few years and stocks down 65% or more from the top.

The lower this index falls, the more worried we’ll become… and so should you.

We’ve been warning that Germany would disappoint in 2014 due to falling demographic trends there. And it keeps doing so. The China bubble keeps showing further signs of beginning to burst. And when it does… watch out.

I saw a recent new index that forecasts China’s growth rate will slow to 4% to 5% in the next year. Almost no one was expecting that!

We’re also warning that the still strong affluent sector will slow in spending beginning in 2015 as will auto sales that are the last major durable goods sector to peak late this year due to the spending peak at age 53 for the massive baby-boom generation.

And the Fed has finally tapered to zero just in time for worsening fundamental trends ahead.

The only question now would be… when will the deaf, dumb, blind and delusional stock markets figure this out?

You should be ahead of them and selling on any rallies or slight new highs.

I keep warning that it’s better to be safe than sorry as bubbles burst rapidly when they finally do.

Now you see it… now you don’t. It’ll likely be that quick.

Source: Economy & Markets

[winston]

If Everything Is Just Fine, Why Are So Many Really Smart People Forecasting Economic Disaster?

By Michael Snyder

Source: The Economic Collapse Blog

http://www.thetradingreport.com/2014/11 ... -disaster/

[behappyalways]

A good watch


Shorting Stocks Now: Milton Berg Turns Bearish
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/milton-b ... 8ON5Q.html

[behappyalways]

US equity markets in second dotcom style bubble
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/1125 ... ubble.html

[behappyalways]

Factory activity growth slows in Asia, Europe and U.S. in November
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/asia-euro ... 52126.html

[winston]

Are Awful Holiday Sales A Signal For The Next Recession

By Michael Snyder

Source: The Economic Collapse Blog

http://www.thetradingreport.com/2014/12 ... recession/