Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Sep 15)

[winston]

TOL as of Mar 23, 2014:-

A New Month

april.gif

It's a new month again and there would be new money flowing again into the markets.

So the market should be strong, for at least the first week of the new month. Thereafter, it would be earnings season again to provide the catalyst for the market to move higher.

With the above happening, why am I a bit cautious ?

Maybe because it has not been easy trading these market.

Everyone is waiting for the big crash while the market is moving sideways between fear and hope.

In the meantime, I'm raising some cash as I'm not comfortable with the volatility.

I'm also trimming any counters where the story is not convincing.


The week in review:-

Commodities - Risk On

1. Oil - Higher. US$101.58 from US$99.55 last week from US$99.00 the previous week.

2. Gold - Lower. US$1293 from US$1335 last week from US$1382 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Lower. US$19.78 from US$20.28 last week from US$21.46 the previous week. Range High: 49.50;

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.04 from US$2.95 last week from US$2.94 the previous week.

5. Is it time to look at Commodities ? It's hated, relatively cheap and maybe on an uptrend


Equities - Risk On

1. US Equities - Lower. 1858 from 1867 last week from 1841 the previous week.

2. HK Equities - Higher. 22066 from 21437 last week from 21539 the previous week. Sold Shenghua, Shiimao and 1/3 China Resource Enterprise; Bought Zhaojin and China Silver

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 2042 from 2048 last week from 2004 the previous week. No trade

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3172 from 3073 last week from 3074 the previous week. Sold JSH

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 14696 from 14224 last week from 14328 the previous week.

6. Malaysian Equities - Added to Menang


Currencies- Risk-On

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 102.82 from 102.25 from 101.36. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 105.18

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.6002 from 2.5963 from 2.5919. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 0.9252 from 0.9081 from 0.9030

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.1644 from 1.1572 from 1.1426; H 1.36; L 1.11; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 3.0277 from 3.0044 from 2.9614

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.3754 from 1.3794 from 1.3911 the previous week

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7578 from 7.7581 from 7.7672 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Stronger. 80.18 from 80.11 from 79.41 the previous week.


Interest Rates- Risk-On

1. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.72% from 2.74% last week from 2.65% the previous week.

2. I have stopped monitoring interest rates in Italy and Spain. They are non events now and probably hyped up by the short-sellers


Others

1. Sentiment -Confused

2. Headwinds - European Contagion, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Tapering, Ukraine, China Slowdown

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, Great Rotation

4. Risk Management - Do you know that you dont know ?

5. Properties - Dropping slowly


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Apr 04, 2014:-

earnings_season.jpg

Earnings Season Again

It's earnings season again in the US.

And this could be the catalyst that could push the market higher.

But May is also not too far away.

By the way, at lunch yesterday, all 4 of us were cautious.

Therefore, it's very likely that there would not be a big plunge.

So I would continue to nibble whenever there's a dip and selling into any technical rebound.


The week in review:-


Commodities - Flat

1. Oil - Flat. US$101 from US$102 from US$100.

2. Gold - Higher. US$1302 from US$1293 from US$1335. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Flat. US$20 from US$20 from US$20. Range High: 49;

4. Copper - Flat. US$3.03 from US$3.04 from US$2.95.

5. Is it time to look at Commodities ? It's hated, relatively cheap and maybe on an uptrend


Equities - Risk On

1. US Equities - Higher. 1865 from 1858 from 1867.

2. HK Equities - Higher. 22510 from 22066 from 21437. Bought CNOOC. Sold 1/2 Poly Culture

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2059 from 2042 from 2048. Sold 1/2 A50

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3213 from 3172 from 3073. No Trade.

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 15064 from 14696 from 14224 the previous week.

6. Malaysian Equities - No Trade; Menang just announced a 1 for 2 warrant


Currencies- Risk-On

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat. 103 from 103 from 102. The 52 week range is 76 to 105

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.61 from 2.60 from 2.60. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat. 0.93 from 0.93 from 0.91

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.17 from 1.16 from 1.16; H 1.36; L 1.11; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 3.05 from 3.03 from 3.00. Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.37 from 1.38 from 1.38

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7568 from 7.7678 from 7.7581. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Stronger. 80.4 from 80.2 from 80.1 the previous week.


Others

1. Sentiment - Confused

2. Headwinds - European Contagion, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Tapering, Ukraine, China Slowdown

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, Great Rotation

4. Risk Management - Am I being too overconfident that this is a trading market and not the beginning of a crash ? What happens if I'm wrong ? Should I put some Stop Losses in place ?

5. Properties - Dropping slowly

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Flat. 2.72% from 2.72% from 2.74%.


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Apr 13, 2014:-

The Need for Patience

patient.jpg

As the US sells off, the contrarians are starting to wake up.

But is it really a buying opportunity ?

US earnings are not that great, Global growth is not that great, Valuations are not that great etc.

So what's so great, that would make you buy especially when there's also tapering and the month of May, coming up ?

As for myself, I'm holding off on the buying while I'm selling into any rally.

Again, if my counter does not have a convincinging story, I'm selling first instead of hanging around to wait and see what happens.


The week in review:-

Commodities - Flat


1. Oil - Higher. US$103 from US$101 from US$102.

2. Gold - Higher. US$1318 from US$1302 from US$1293. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Flat. US$20 from US$20 from US$20. Range High: 49;

4. Copper - Flat. US$3.04 from US$3.03 from US$3.04.

5. Is it time to look at Commodities ? It's hated, relatively cheap and maybe on an uptrend


Equities - Risk Off

1. US Equities - Lower. 1816 from 1865 from 1858.

2. HK Equities - Higher. 23004 from 22510 from 22066. Sold Standard Chartered, CNOOC and China Resource Enterprise. Traded Fast Retailing and Zhaojin.

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2131 from 2059 from 2042. Sold 1/2 A50

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3197 from 3213 from 3172. Sold 1/2 Hutchinson Ports.

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 13907 from 15064 from 14696 the previous week.

6. Malaysian Equities - No Trade; It's very hard not to take profit on Menang and I need to constantly remind myself that this is a 3 year play.


Currencies- Risk-On

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat. 102 from 103 from 103. The 52 week range is 76 to 105

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.59 from 2.61 from 2.60. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 0.94 from 0.93 from 0.93.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Flat. 1.17 from 1.17 from 1.16; H 1.36; L 1.11; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 3.04 from 3.05 from 3.03. Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger 1.39 from 1.37 from 1.38 from 1.38

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7533 from 7.7568 from 7.7678. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Weaker. 79.5 from 80.4 from 80.2.


Others

1. Sentiment -Confused

2. Headwinds - Europe Delevaraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Tapering, Ukraine, China Slowdown, High Valuation

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, Great Rotation

4. Risk Management - Do not catch a falling knife ( or piano )

5. Properties - Dropping slowly

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.62% from 2.72% from 2.72%.



The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Apr 20, 2014:-

Sell In May and Go Away ?

may.gif

May is just around the corner. And the market has been holding up quite well.

Is this time to sell and be ahead of the crowd ?

Or do you want to try your luck and hang around a bit more ? And hope that you can run faster than the crowd when the selling starts ?

And what would you do if there's no selling this year ? When would you be getting back into the market again ? September ?


The week in review:-


Commodities - Flat

1. Oil - Higher. US$105 from US$103 from US$101.

2. Gold - Lower. US$1295 from US$1318 from US$1302. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Flat. US$20 from US$20 from US$20. Range High: 49;

4. Copper - Flat. US$3.04 from US$3.03 from US$3.04.

5. Is it time to look at Commodities ? It's hated, relatively cheap and maybe on an uptrend


Equities - Mixed

1. US Equities - Higher. 1865 from 1816 from 1865.

2. HK Equities - Lower. 22760 from 23004 from 22510. Buy Zhaojin and Poly Culture

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 2098 from 2131 from 2059.

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3254 from 3197 from 3213. Sold Keppel Reit and 1/2 Fraser Commercial.

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 14516 from 13907 from 15064 Fast Retailing's PE of 37 is a bit of a worry.

6. Malaysian Equities - No Trade; Sitting on Menang


Currencies- Risk-Off

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat. 102 from 102 from 103. The 52 week range is 76 to 105

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Flat. 2.59 from 2.59 from 2.61. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.93 from 0.94 from 0.93.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Flat. 1.17 from 1.17 from 1.17; H 1.36; L 1.11; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 3.02 from 3.04 from 3.05. Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.38 from 1.39 from 1.37.

7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7545 from 7.7533 from 7.7568. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Stronger. 79.8 from 79.5 from 80.4.


Others

1. Sentiment - Cautious

2. Headwinds - Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Tapering, Ukraine, China Slowdown

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, Great Rotation

4. Risk Management - How fast can you run ?

5. Properties - Dropping slowly

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.72% from 2.62% from 2.72%.



The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Apr 27, 2014:-

gone-fishing-4546646.jpg

Trading Break

As I'm a bit uncomfortable with the volatility in the market, I have decided to take a trading break.

And it's also so funny watching my friends scrambling around, trying to chase a few percentages, here and there.

I recalled a super-trader mentioning somewhere, that if he drops to 90% mental efficiency, he starts to lose money.

So it's time to sit back and watch the world go by.

And maybe I may get some bright idea on where to invest next.


The week in review:-


Commodities - Mixed

1. Oil - Lower. US$101 from US$105 from US$103.

2. Gold - Higher. US$1304 from US$1295 from US$1318. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Flat. US$20 from US$20 from US$20. Range High: 49;

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.12 from US$3.05 from US$3.04.

5. Is it time to look at Commodities ? It's hated, relatively cheap and maybe on an uptrend


Equities - Risk-Off

1. US Equities - Flat. 1863 from 1865 from 1816.

2. HK Equities - Lower. 22224 from 22760 from 23004. No Trade

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 2037 from 2098 from 2131.

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3268 from 3254 from 3197. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 14429 from 14516 from 13907

6. Malaysian Equities - No Trade; Sitting on Menang


Currencies- Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat. 102 from 102 from 102. The 52 week range is 76 to 105

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.60 from 2.59 from 2.59. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat. 0.93 from 0.93 from 0.94.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Flat. 1.17 from 1.17 from 1.17; H 1.36; L 1.11; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 3.03 from 3.02 from 3.04. Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Flat. 1.38 from 1.38 from 1.39.

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger 7.7535 from 7.7545 from 7.7533. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Flat. 79.8 from 79.8 from 79.5.


Others

1. Sentiment - Confused

2. Headwinds - Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Tapering, Ukraine, China Slowdown

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, Great Rotation

4. Risk Management - If there's a crash tomorrow, how would you be reacting ?

5. Properties - Dropping slowly

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.66% from 2.72% from 2.62%.

7. The Bank of Russia raised the key rate to 7.5 percent per annum due to higher inflation risks


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of May 04, 2014:-

month-of-may-doodle.jpg

New Month

It's a new month and there's new money going into the market again.

So the earlier part of May should be quite safe.

However, it's still May and traditionally, it's the weak period of the year.

In addition, the World Cup would be here soon and it's normally a slow period too.

So I'm going to be a bit careful than adventurous, for the next few months.

Having said that, if there's a crash, I will probably not hesitate to put some of my Cash to work.


The week in review:-

Commodities - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Lower. US$100 from US$101 from US$105.

2. Gold - Lower. US$1300 from US$1304 from US$1295. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Lower. US$19 from US$20 from US$20. Range High: 49;

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.06 from US$3.12 from US$3.05.

5. Is it time to look at Commodities ? It's hated, relatively cheap and maybe on an uptrend


Equities - Mixed

1. US Equities - Higher. 1881 from 1863 from 1865.

2. HK Equities - Higher. 22261 from 22224 from 22760. Bought China Silver

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 2026 from 2037 from 2098. Bought A50.

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3253 from 3268 from 3254. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 14458 from 14429 from 14516

6. Malaysian Equities - No Trade; Sitting on Menang


Currencies- Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 103 from 102 from 102. The 52 week range is 76 to 105

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.61 from 2.60 from 2.59. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat. 0.93 from 0.93 from 0.93.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.16 from 1.17 from 1.17; H 1.36; L 1.11; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 3.02 from 3.03 from 3.02 from 3.04 Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Higher. 1.39 from 1.38 from 1.38.

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger 7.7526 from 7.7535 from 7.7545. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Lower. 79.5 from 79.8 from 79.8.


Others

1. Sentiment - Cautious

2. Headwinds - Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Tapering, Ukraine, China Slowdown

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, Great Rotation

4. Risk Management - Is it time to buy some protection eg Puts or Inverse ETFs ?

5. Properties - Dropping slowly

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.58% from 2.66% from 2.72%.



The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of May 11, 2014:-

bigstock-Volatility-22607528-1-300x244.jpg

Time to short ?

There's no shortage of bad news for the market.

We have Tapering, Ukraine, Chinese Slowdown, Rising Interest Rates, Market Volatility etc.

So is it time to short the market now ?

Can it really continue to grind higher ?


The week in review:-


Commodities - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Flat. US$100 from US$100 from US$101.

2. Gold - Lower. US$1290 from US$1300 from US$1304. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Flat. US$19 from US$19 from US$20. Range High: 49;

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.09 from US$3.06 from US$3.12.

5. Is it time to look at Commodities ? It's hated, relatively cheap and maybe on an uptrend


Equities - Risk-Off

1. US Equities - Lower. 1878 from 1881 from 1863.

2. HK Equities - Lower. 21863 from 22261 from 22224. No Trade.

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 2011 from 2026 from 2037. .

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3252 from 3253 from 3268. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 14200 from 14458 from 14429

6. Malaysian Equities - No Trade;


Currencies- Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 102 from 103 from 102. The 52 week range is 76 to 105

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.59 from 2.61 from 2.60. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 0.94 from 0.93 from 0.93.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.17 from 1.16 from 1.17. H 1.36; L 1.11; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Flat. 3.02 from 3.02 from 3.03 Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.38 from 1.39 from 1.38.

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger 7.7517 from 7.7526 from 7.7535. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Stronger. 79.9 from 79.5 from 79.8.


Others

1. Sentiment - Cautious

2. Headwinds - Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Tapering, Ukraine, China Slowdown

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, Great Rotation

4. Risk Management - Is it time to buy some protection eg puts or Inverse ETFs ?

5. Properties - Dropping slowly

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.62% from 2.58% from 2.66%.



The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of May 18, 2014:-

Catalyst.jpg

Catalysts

What are the catalysts for the market to continue going up ?

Everyone already knows about Tapering. Everyone knows that the global economy is not that hot. Everyone knows that interest rates are low and the savers are looking for higher returns.

So why would the markets continue to go up ? And if it's not continuing to go up, will it then fall ?

My "feeling" is that it's still a trading market and that there would not be a crash. However, I dont think that it will be that hot either.

So I will still buy on any dip and sell into any rallies, until I see a "M" forming on the sharts.


Commodities[/b] - Risk-On

1. Oil - Higher. US$102 from US$100 from US$100.

2. Gold - Higher. US$1293 from US$1290 from US$1300. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Flat. US$19 from US$19 from US$19. Range High: 49;

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.15 from US$3.09 from US$3.06.

5. Is it time to look at Commodities ? It's hated, relatively cheap and maybe on an uptrend


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Flat. 1878 from 1878 from 1881.

2. HK Equities - Higher. 22713 from 21863 from 22261. Bought SJM.

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2027 from 2011 from 2026. .

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3263 from 3252 from 3253. Sold Cache Logistics

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 14097 from 14200 from 14458 .

6. Malaysian Equities - No Trade;


Currencies- Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat. 102 from 102 from 103. The 52 week range is 76 to 105

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.58 from 2.59 from 2.61. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat. 0.94 from 0.94 from 0.93.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Flat. 1.17 from 1.17 from 1.16. H 1.36; L 1.11; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 3.03 from 3.02 from 3.02 Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.37 from 1.38 from 1.39.

7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker 7.7522 from 7.7517 from 7.7526. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Stronger. 80.0 from 79.9 from 79.5.


Others

1. Sentiment - Confused

2. Headwinds - Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Tapering, Ukraine, China Slowdown

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, Great Rotation

4. Risk Management - Is it time to buy some protection eg puts or Inverse ETFs ?

5. Properties - Dropping slowly

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.52% from 2.62% from 2.58%.



The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of May 25, 2014:-

confused.png

Confused

While I continue to be afraid, the market continues to grind higher.

So where do we go from here ?

Do I buy eventhough the US market is very high ?

Or is it a good time to sell before it turns southward ?

Aren't you supposed to be always trying to buy low and sell high ?

Or maybe it's time to be adventurous and buy higher, hoping to sell higher ?


Commodities - Risk-On

1. Oil - Higher. US$104 from US$102 from US$100.

2. Gold - Flat. US$1293 from US$1293 from US$1290. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Flat. US$19 from US$19 from US$19. Range High: 49;

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.17 from US$3.15 from US$3.09.

5. Is it time to look at Commodities ? It's hated, relatively cheap and maybe on an uptrend


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Higher. 1901 from 1878 from 1878.

2. HK Equities - Higher. 22966 from 22713 from 21863. No trade.

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2035 from 2027 from 2011 .

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3278 from 3263 from 3252. No trade.

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 14462 from 14097 from 14200. .

6. Malaysian Equities - No Trade;


Currencies- Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat. 102 from 102 from 102. The 52 week range is 76 to 105

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.56 from 2.58 from 2.59. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat. 0.92 from 0.92 from 0.94.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.16 from 1.17 from 1.17. H 1.36; L 1.11; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 2.97 from 3.03 from 3.02 Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.36 from 1.37 from 1.38.

7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker 7.7532 from 7.7522 from 7.7517. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Stronger. 80.4 from 80.0 from 79.9.


Others

1. Sentiment - Confused

2. Headwinds - Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Tapering, Ukraine, China Slowdown

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, Great Rotation

4. Risk Management - Is it time to buy some protection eg puts or Inverse ETFs ?
5. Properties - Dropping slowly

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.53% from 2.52% from 2.62%.



The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Jun 01, 2014:-

june-300x171.png

New Month

It's a new month again.

So the market will probably grind higher on the new inflows of a new month.

But how long can this move upwards last ?

Isn't this supposed to be the weak period of the year ?

And with the World Cup coming, wouldn't the traders be watching football, instead of their PC monitors ?

Is this the last chance to sell before the dip ?

Or is it a good time to buy and hold for the Christmas Rally ?


Commodities[/b] - Risk-On

1. Oil - Lower. US$103 from US$104 from US$102.

2. Gold - Lower. US$1251 from US$1293 from US$1293. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Flat. US$19 from US$19 from US$19. Range High: 49;

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.14 from US$3.17 from US$3.15.

5. Is it time to look at Commodities ? It's hated, relatively cheap and maybe on an uptrend


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Higher. 1924 from 1901 from 1878

2. HK Equities - Higher. 23082 from 22966 from 22713. Sold Fast Retailing as there's no volume

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2039 from 2035 from 2027 .

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3296 from 3278 from 3263. No trade.

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 14632 from 14462 from 14097 .

6. Malaysian Equities - No Trade;


Currencies- Risk-On

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat. 102 from 102 from 102. The 52 week range is 76 to 105

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Flat. 2.56 from 2.56 from 2.58. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Higher. 0.93 from 0.92 from 0.92

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.17 from 1.16 from 1.17. H 1.36; L 1.11; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 2.99 from 2.97 from 3.03 Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Flat. 1.36 from 1.36 from 1.37.

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger 7.7529 from 7.7532 from 7.7522. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Flat. 80.4 from 80.4 from 80.0.


Others

1. Sentiment - Confused

2. Headwinds - Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Tapering, Ukraine, China Slowdown

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, Great Rotation

4. Risk Management - Is it time to buy some protection eg puts or Inverse ETFs ?

5. Properties - Dropping slowly

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.48% from 2.53% from 2.52%



The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.