Warning Signs 01 (Oct 08 - Feb 15)

[winston]

TOL:-

So what are the warning signs now ?

The noise from the shorts banging their head on the wall ?

[winston]

SUEZ CANAL TRAFFIC POINTS TO GLOBAL SLOW-DOWN by Cullen Roche

Here’s an indicator I had never seen before.

Reuters is highlighting the slow-down in Suez Canal traffic as a possible harbinger of stagnating global economic growth:

http://pragcap.com/suez-canal-traffic-p ... -slow-down

[iam802]

Saw an ad on AsiaOne that says

'...the strongest bull run in stock market is approaching...'

Wow. Awesome.

[kennynah]

Clearly an awesome warning sign

[Musicwhiz]

Saw an ad on AsiaOne that says

'...the strongest bull run in stock market is approaching...'

Wow. Awesome.

Lots of such ads. Not too surprised.

[winston]

Is Credit Trying to Tell Us Something? by CrownThomas

As retirement is evidently on again in 2012, let's not forget to keep an eye on HYG (high yield corporate credit).

The start of 2012 has led to a pretty significant decoupling of the S&P (equity) and HYG (credit), which begs the question which is right - as both are "risk on" asset classes, does S&P have a significant correction ahead, or does credit just have some catching up to do?

Over the past few years, it's been equities that have gotten out ahead of themselves.

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/20 ... -something

[winston]

22 Red Flags That Indicate Serious Doom Is Coming…
Author: The Economic Collapse Blog

If you enjoy watching financial doom, then you are quite likely to really enjoy the rest of 2012.

Right now, red flags are popping up all over the place.

The following are 22 red flags that indicate that very serious doom is coming for global financial markets….


http://www.yolohub.com/economy/22-red-f ... -is-coming

[winston]

Keep a close eye on this important and lagging sector! by Chris Kimble

A year ago today, the S&P 500 hits its 2011 highs. Basic Materials ETF (IYM) reflected weakness before the 500 hit its highs.

Looking back of the past one year, IYM is trailing/underperformed the S&P 500 by 20%. Odds are pretty high that the S&P 500 needs this sector to break falling resistance, before an extended and quality upside move in the 500 is to take place.

Watch this lager right now, as it continues to create lower highs at a key falling resistance line/top of its flag pattern.

Weakness in IYM in early 2011 was a suggestion that investors should be cautious when constructing a portfolio....the message remains the same one year later!

http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com ... ng-sector/

[winston]

A NOSEDIVE IN THE CESI by Cullen Roche 3 Comments

Citigroup’s Economic Surprise Index has been very highly correlated with equity vs bond returns over the last 5 years and recent trends point to a continued negative outlook for equities and bullishness for bonds.

Now, I would never put too much emphasis on any single indicator, but this one does bring many different aspects of the market together.

I particularly like these sorts of indices that compare expectations to reality.

It provides a real-time idea of whether investors are potentially flat footed and expecting too much out of the market….

Scotty Barber at Reuters provides a nice chart:
“Citigroup’s G10 economic surprise index has taken a nosedive in the last couple of weeks”

http://pragcap.com/a-nosedive-in-the-cesi

[winston]

“Kiss of Lower Prices” for the S&P 500 due to the currency breakdown and Magazine cover indicator? by Chris Kimble

On March 29th the Power of the Pattern shared that an indicator was suggesting the S&P 500 would fall at least 7% in value (see post here)

This indicator is the Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar ratio….when it breaks support, the 500 index often follows.

The last three times this index broke support the 500 index fell 8% twice and 15% once. See the above for past S&P 500 declines.

Some call it the Magazine cover indicator….more often than not, when a major news magazine makes a bold prediction about the stock market, it heads in the opposite direction. Look what “Newsweek” published in the past week.

Newsweek magazine published a bullish cover about the U.S. economy as the 500 index was breaking support and the AUD$/US$ ratio is breaking a new support line, at the same time.

Is this a “Double Kiss of Death” for the 500 index? Stay tuned!!!

http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com ... indicator/