Oil 12 (Feb 21 - Sep 23)

[winston]

IEA: Global Oil Supply Crisis Shows Signs of Easing; Russian Oil Output Higher-than-expected

The global oil supply crisis is showing signs of easing, as the sluggish economic growth weighs on crude oil demand while international sanctions against Russia have less-than-expected impact on oil production, according to a monthly report published by the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The agency reduced the global oil demand forecasts for 2022 and 2023, stating that consumers were deterred by the historically high oil prices while demand was being eroded by the weakening global economic growth.

The IEA ramped up the 2022E global crude oil production volume from 300,000 barrels per day to 100.1 million barrels per day, while also raising the forecast for Russian crude production from 240,000 barrels per day to 10.6 million barrels per day.

Over the previous month, the world's crude oil supply burgeoned by 690,000 barrels per day to 99.5 million barrels per day, primarily owing to the higher-than-expected Russian oil output.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

[winston]

Is it Time to Buy Oil Stocks?

by Jody Chudley

JPMorgan thinks oil prices could reach $190 per barrel if Russia cuts supply by 3 million barrels per day… and $380 per barrel if Russia cuts supply by 5 million barrels per day.

There are at least three reasons Putin could cut oil supplies:-
1. First, he’s already doing it with Russian natural gas exports.
2. Second, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation has a strong balance sheet that could handle a decrease in oil revenues for a while.
3. Third, if oil spikes to, say, $200 per barrel, Russia doesn’t need to sell much to generate a lot of revenue.

Oil prices are now back down to where they were just before Russia invaded Ukraine.

Source: Wealthy Retirement

https://dailytradealert.com/2022/07/14/ ... il-stocks/

[winston]

Yellen sees price curb on Russian oil

Yellen met finance leaders from Saudi Arabia, Australia, South Africa, Turkey and Singapore. She also had dinner with Canadian Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland.

Source: The Standard

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/section- ... ussian-oil

[winston]

The era of expensive oil is here to stay

There’s a shortage of refineries to turn oil into fuel.

Russia’s overall production has fallen by more than a million barrels a day, weighed down by sanctions and a broad reluctance to do business with Moscow.

In May, OPEC+ produced 2.7 million barrels a day less than its collective target.

In May, OPEC+ (the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies) produced 2.7 million barrels a day less than its collective target.

Production is rising in Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico. But the rest of the US oil industry is stagnating. Overall US output is still about 1 m barrels a day short of its pre-pandemic peak.

20 m electric cars aren’t enough to cut oil demand. Expects crude demand from road transport to peak in 2027.

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.theedgesingapore.com/views/ ... -here-stay

[winston]

Saudi Arabian Prince Pledges to Boost Daily Oil Output to 13M Barrels, Warns Capacity Limit

Saudi Arabian prince Mohammed bin Salman reiterated that more upstream investment will be needed to alleviate the pressures on the oil market and pledged to expand the country's production capacity on a limited basis, reported foreign media.

Specifically, the prince expressed that Saudi Arabia will expand its oil production output to 13 million barrels per day. After that, the kingdom will not have any additional ability to increase production, he added.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

[winston]

Oil edged lower as growing stockpiles of crude and petrol tempered fears of a tight market

West Texas Intermediate for September delivery settled below US$100 a barrel in a volatile session.

A US inventory report showed a build in inventories at the largest storage hub in Cushing, while petrol stockpiles grew more-than-expected 3.5 million barrels last week, according to an Energy Information Administration report.

Petrol demand rose week over week but remains below where it was this time of year in 2020, when Covid lockdowns kept millions off the road.

Oil prices have struggled to find meaningful direction in recent days as trading volumes have thinned out with summer trading.

Open interest – the total number of contracts held by traders – for West Texas Intermediate has fallen to its lowest level since 2015, according to CME Group Inc. data.

Crude has fluctuated around US$100 a barrel with traders weighing demand impacts from a potential recession with a weakening dollar and a pipeline outage that has tightened the US market.

Source: Phillips

[behappyalways]

Saudi Arabia Reveals Upper Limits Of Oil Production Nears As World Structurally Short
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/s ... ally-short

[winston]

Enjoy the Modest Dip in Gas Prices While It Lasts

by Thomas McArdle

“July is typically the heaviest month for demand as more Americans hit the road, so this trend of easing prices could be short-lived.”

“There is still risk that prices could go up and reach new records, mainly if there is a hurricane or some other such unexpected event that shuts down oil or refining production.”

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting an “above-average” 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, with from 14 to 21 serious storms, including three to six major hurricanes.

Too few refineries being a major underlying factor in the price of gasoline; there were five fewer refineries at the beginning of this year than in 2020 before the pandemic savaged the economy.

The Biden administration tries to take credit for lowering the inflationary gas prices it caused.

Source: Epoch Times

https://www.theepochtimes.com/enjoy-the ... FpSO0vI%3D

[behappyalways]

The plan, announced in April, saw a total of 180 million barrels of crude being released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to counter the inexorable increase in oil prices amid a tight market, at a rate of some 1 million bpd.

US SPR Releases Set To End This Fall
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/us-spr ... t-end-fall

[winston]

vested XLE

Big Oil set for record profit as world reels from high fuel cost

by Kevin Crowley, Laura Hurst & Francois de Beaupuy

Record-breaking US$50 billion profit in the second quarter.

Earnings will peak in the second or third quarter, with a small decline thereafter.

Not just crude that has soared but natural gas prices and refining margins have also broken records.

Profit margins from refining a barrel of crude, exploded to average US$48.84 in the second quarter, more than double the level a year-earlier.

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/ ... -fuel-cost