Warning Signs 01 (Oct 08 - Feb 15)

[winston]

Joe Friday: "Just the Facts" by Chris Kimble

It's Friday, and Chris "Just the Facts" Kimble returns for a cameo Dragnet impersonation, this time with a look at a similar pattern in a pair of assets not normally thought of in the same context.

Chris comments: The Shanghai Index and homebuilders both have broken out of multi-year flag/pennant patterns — to the downside — at the same time.

Not good price action from these two leading indicators!

http://dshort.com/articles/Kimble/2011/ ... -NYSE.html

[winston]

Plunge in Junk-Bond ETFs: Canary in the Risk Coal Mine? By RANDALL W. FORSYTH

Exchange-traded funds that invest in junk bonds went into a virtual free-fall in heavy volume Thursday while the market for the underlying securities barely budged. Could this be a warning about the high-yield bond market? Or could it be a sign of sign of trouble in this new and relatively untested instrument, fixed-income ETFs? Or perhaps both?

After trading slightly higher in the morning, both the SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bond Fund (ticker: JNK) and the iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Fund (HYG) rolled over at midday and went into a nosedive by mid-afternoon.


Source: Barrons

[winston]

Signs a bear market may have already started
From Gold Scents:

Make no mistake, the four-day rally we just saw was nothing more than short covering in front of the Fed meeting just in case Bernanke surprised us with QE3. As expected, he confirmed that QE2 would end on schedule. The dollar rallied and the market sold off on the news.

Folks, I don't think this is over yet. In the chart below, you can see that every intermediate cycle low exhibits some kind of capitulation volume as market participants panic.


http://goldscents.blogspot.com/2011/06/ ... uture.html

[winston]

A Bearish Sign from Yacht Country By Jeff Clark
Thursday, July 7, 2011

The super-rich never cut back.

It doesn't matter how bad things get in the global economy. We can always count on the world's billionaires to buy that extra tin of beluga caviar, or that set of custom hubcaps for the Maserati. They already have more money than they can spend in a lifetime. So the strength or weakness in the economy doesn't really matter to them.

That's why we should all be worried about the lack of big yachts in the south of France.

This is "big boat" season in the French Riviera. It's when potbellied bald guys open up their wallets, and supermodels take off their tops. Everyone prances along the coastline playing a game of "Who's Got the Most?"

This year, sadly, there is a lack of participation.

My family and I vacationed with some friends in Monaco last week. Despite being the height of the tourist season, and Prince Albert's pending nuptials, the place was quiet. Too quiet.

"Where is everybody?" I asked Franck, our waiter at the Michelin three-star Le Louis XV restaurant. We walked in off the street at 12:15 p.m. on the Thursday before Prince Albert's Saturday wedding and requested a lunch table for eight. We didn't have a reservation, but we were seated immediately.

The restaurant was busy, but not THAT busy. The French Riviera was busy as well, but not as busy as you might expect in the height of the summer just before an "A" list celebrity event.

"Je ne sais pas (I don't know)," Franck replied as he shrugged his shoulders. "We were quite busy last month, and in April. But June is miserable for business. It's like the world just went to sleep."

"It's a bad time for billionaires to take a nap, huh?" I asked.

My charming wit didn't translate as well as I had hoped. Franck glared at me with that "I'm going to spit in your food" look.

"I hope they wake up soon." Franck replied, "They're good customers."

What happens, though, if they don't wake up? What if billionaires are as sensitive as birds on a wire? The first bird to freak out and leave the perch sparks the "fear" instinct of the other birds.

What should us "less than billionaire" people think of this?

If the wealthiest members of the world society aren't spending money and are cutting back and conserving their wealth instead, what should we be doing? What does that say about the future prospects for the global economy?

Obviously, there's no easy answer. And I hate to draw a conclusion off my two-week experience in the south of France. But if the wealthiest people of the world are cutting back and curtailing their spending habits, what does that say about what all the rest of us should do?

Beware of napping billionaires. It's not a good sign for the economy.


Source: Growth Stock Wire

[winston]

What's the point of writing a long article without a conclusion and next steps ? Whine and whine with no conclusion ...

Is the US Monetary System on the Verge of Collapse?
by David Galland

Tune into CNBC or click onto any of the dozens of mainstream financial news sites, and you’ll find an endless array of opinions on the latest wiggle in equity, bond and commodities markets. As often as not, you'll find those opinions nestled side by side with authoritative analysis on the outlook for the economy, complete with the author’s carefully studied judgment on the best way forward.

Lost in all the noise, however, is any recognition that the US monetary system – and by extension, that of much of the developed world – may very well be on the verge of collapse.

http://www.caseyresearch.com/editorial. ... 420ED0911G

[kennynah]

What's the point of writing a long article without a conclusion and next steps ? Whine and whine with no conclusion ...

Is the US Monetary System on the Verge of Collapse?
by David Galland

it's a great job to whine and get paid...

i should know... i'm a singaporean and whining is my national past time

[Aspellian]

What's the point of writing a long article without a conclusion and next steps ? Whine and whine with no conclusion ...

Is the US Monetary System on the Verge of Collapse?
by David Galland

it's a great job to whine and get paid...

i should know... i'm a singaporean and whining is my national past time

hahahahah!!!!!! I couldnt agree more - Sporeans simply love to whinnnnnnneee...

[iam802]

Singaporeans need more beer; real man drink beer not w(h)ine.

[Chinaman]

Indeed.....red warning, slowly is surfacing up soon.

HSI down 730 points now....how many 700 pts she can afford to spare, nearer to recession.

Cautious folks.....

[winston]

Corporate Audit Fees Up? Beware of Trouble Ahead

(Reuters) - Elevated audit fees can be a red flag of problems to come for a company, say three recent academic studies that together warn about increased chances of fraud, stock price declines or financial restatements.

http://www.newsmeat.com/news/meat.php?a ... &buid=3281