Oil & Gas 01 (May 08 - Jul 08)

[iam802]

On closer look, my article from DollarDex has the same source as the one that Winston's post earlier.

I believe the source is from BCA Research.

Reading Winston's post again, maybe the context on why crude will fall (in the near term) is clearer.
ie. support is provided by geopolitical and inventory problems.

Do note that at this point, they say inventory is low. Such data is a laggard, right?

I believe that the super long term outlook for oil is up. The report does say that 'in the coming months it will trade lower'. So, probably some minor corrections as US govt. intervene in other areas of the market.

A gut feel from talking to some oil traders. Couple of months (or weeks) back, people were very careful when the price is at US$136. However, once it broke $140 and come down again, everybody is buying offer at US$136.

So, will crude oil correct downwards by a huge margin? I think if it hit US$135, and end the year with this figure 'we should be happy'.

But, all these speculative talk only.

[kennynah]

A gut feel from talking to some oil traders. Couple of months (or weeks) back, ..

this is a huge advantage u have...

[millionairemind]

Published July 9, 2008

Oil to fall back to US$98 by May 2009: analyst

By GENEVIEVE CUA

OIL is set to fall back to US$98 a barrel by May 2009, says technical analyst David Bensimon.

Speaking at a commodities conference earlier this week, Mr Bensimon believes that the recent oil price gains were largely futures driven as it coincided with a sharp decline in open interest or outstanding futures contracts.

Falling open interest and rising prices are a sign that traders are buying to exit short positions.

From 2009 and 2010 onwards, he expects oil and equity markets to rise in tandem. 'Markets will do very well in that period even if oil goes back up, as we'll see a resurgence in confidence in the global economy,' he says.

Mr Bensimon studies proportionalities and symmetries in markets, in terms of time, prices and magnitudes. He believes that symmetries - functions of the 'phi' ratio - pervade markets and these, together with fundamental analysis, enable him to make forecasts, some of which have turned out right. His book Polar Perspectives, which captures his long-term view of markets, was awarded two gold medals. He is also setting up a Singapore-based fund to execute his trading ideas.

Mr Bensimon says that the world was able to digest oil at US$80 to US$100 a barrel, thanks to Asian prosperity. 'Now at US$140, just at a point of a technical high, we do see pain. Consumer behaviour is changing, and so is corporate behaviour and government policies.'

His fundamental view remains that the world, and Asia in particular, is in for a 'prosperity driven inflationary era'. His long-term forecast for oil is that it will hit US$420 a barrel over five to eight years. 'There is a lot of time for the world to grow and prosper . . . But we're not going to get to US$400 at the current level of global income. Oil needs to fall and wait for the global economy to grow again.'

Mr Bensimon's monthly Polar View publication has precise predictions for the price path of oil. He expects, for example, an 'immediate reversal' of 33 per cent over a few months to US$98 by May 2009. He expects interim supports at US$123 in August and US$108 in November this year.

Oil price could be in 'choppy consolidation' before it spikes to US$200 in November 2009. He then expects it to fall back sharply again to US$98 in November 2010, however. The larger outlook, he says, remains bullish for oil at US$420 in 2015.

In terms of the local Straits Times Index, Mr Bensimon had earlier this year predicted that it would consolidate further, possibly to 2,550. He says that markets should stage a recovery by the fourth quarter. 'Anywhere in this (current) territory is a reasonably good level to buy . . . In the fourth quarter, I expect a strong recovery that continues for six months. The equity market could rally 40 to 50 per cent.'

[millionairemind]

Bloody Global Conspiracy to keep oil high

Brazil oil workers to begin strike
July 13, 2008 8:00 PM ET

RIO DE JANEIRO, Brazil (AP) - Brazilian oil workers are vowing to go ahead with a strike on more than 40 offshore platforms despite a court order threatening them with fines.

Union chief Vitor Carvalho says about 2,500 workers in the Campos Basin will begin the strike at midnight Monday (0300 GMT).

The oil workers are demanding that state-run oil company Petrobras give them an extra day off at the end of each two-week shift on the platforms.

Carvalho said Sunday the union will ignore a court ruling ordering it not to strike and providing for a daily fine of 50,000 reals (US$31,200).

The Campos Basin produces more than 80 percent of Brazil's oil output. Petrobras says it has a contingency plan for the strike.

© 2008 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

[mojo_]

Bloody Global Conspiracy to keep oil high

Brazil oil workers to begin strike

Reckon if the oil workers are smart, they would have bought oil futures just before announcing their strike... they can potentially make more gains than from their demanded wage increases..

Just like Jerusalem Post could have make gains from their publishing that Israel is going to strike at Iran last week...

[iam802]

damn!

I swear I saw crude coming down in the morning.

it's a conspiracy!!!

Pay few hundred thousands to workers as compensation. Think just within one day, they would have covered this extra expenditure. (I learn this from Ocean 13)

[kennynah]

..it's a conspiracy!!!

Pay few hundred thousands to workers as compensation. Think just within one day, they would have covered this extra expenditure. (I learn this from Ocean 13)

yeah....totalling $36K for 200 workers...hahaha....

[kennynah]

Published July 9, 2008

Oil to fall back to US$98 by May 2009: analyst

some analysts....what they do to eek out a living...

perhaps, some will care about this piece of news.... hahaha...May2009...knn, hopefully, by then, some of us will be posting from a yacht, via a satellite connection, while marlin fishing... May2009....

perhaps, by 2030, sp500 will be >4000points...

[winston]

From CIMB:-

Crude oil final leg? Crude oil prices reached as high as US$147/barrel last Friday.

Based on our wave count, this is expected to be the final rally for crude oil price, peaking anywhere between US$166-US$200/barrel in the next 1-3 months.

Crude oil prices should tumble back towards the US$30-40/barrel in the next 2-3 years.

[iam802]

US$30 - US$40/barrel?

Serious? How do they arrived at this figure?