Warning Signs 01 (Oct 08 - Feb 15)

[kennynah]

Yes, I always take this as a warning sign. People forget how far the market has risen from the abyss and they think that the "good times" can continue forever...

还是你最了解我的意思

having said this...my view is on the short time frame... like next 30 days... so, at most, right now, i'm only expecting a small correction... even so, imo, not the right time to go Long equities...

[winston]

having said this...my view is on the short time frame... like next 30 days... so, at most, right now, i'm only expecting a small correction... even so, imo, not the right time to go Long equities...

Ha Ha ... you look at 30 days out ?

I have shortened my timeframe and look at things on a weekly basis nowadays

[kennynah]

i try to stay a bit flexible ... can be weekly also, depends on the instrument (futures, options) and counter (index, fx, stocks, commods)

[winston]

TOL:-

Some of the stocks that I'm following are trading at Valuation that are not attractive.

Yet I've caught myself trying to justify a position in these stocks, by using TA and the fact that that there's US$600b slushing around.

Am reminding myself to go back to first principle and to use some discipline when buying anything.

When you start trying to justify things, with stuff that you dont really understand, you know that you should actually be standing on the sidelines and let the "experts" play amongst themselves.

[winston]

Warning Signs By Michael Snyder

Do you see all of the warning signs that are flashing all around you? These days it seems like there is more bad economic news in a single week than there used to be in an entire month.

The following are 20 economic warning signs that should be of great concern to all of us….

#1 Over the past seven days, the price of wheat has risen by 11 percent as concerns about food shortages continue to grow around the world.

#2 The price of corn is up a staggering 94 percent since last June.

#3 The United Nations is projecting that the global price of food will increase by 30 percent in 2011.

#4 According to the U.S. Department of Labor, the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits rose last week to the highest level since last October.

#5 According to the Pew Charitable Trusts, of the 14 million Americans “officially” unemployed in December, 30% of them had been unemployed for one year or longer.

#6 Beginning in the month of March, the U.S. Postal Service will begin shutting down up to 2,000 post offices across the United States.

#7 In an absolutely stunning move, Standard & Poor’s has downgraded Japanese government debt from AA to AA-.

#8 72 percent of the major metropolitan areas in the United States had more foreclosures in 2010 than they did in 2009.

#9 Approximately 5 million homeowners in the United States are at least two months behind on their mortgages, and it is being projected that over a million American families will be booted out of their homes this year alone.

#10 According to the Congressional Budget Office, the Social Security system will run a deficit of 45 billion dollars this year. When the new payroll tax breaks are factored in, the projected “Social Security deficit” for this year swells to 130 billion dollars.

#11 The U.S. money supply has been rising at a pace that is absolutely unprecedented.

#12 Right now, money is flowing out of bonds at an absolutely staggering pace.

#13 The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics says that the price of food increased 50 percent faster than the overall rate of inflation during 2010.

#14 According to the U.S. Conference of Mayors, visits to soup kitchens are up 24 percent over the past year.

#15 During the last school year, almost half of all school children in the state of Illinois came from families that were considered to be “low-income”.

#16 Those living in the town of Discovery Bay, California will soon not be permitted to use cash to pay for any public services. Could this be another disturbing step in the direction of a cashless society?

#17 French President Nicolas Sarkozy says that the IMF should be given the power to enforce new rules that would be designed to prevent “global economic imbalances” from happening.

#18 The U.S. government is currently borrowing about 40 cents of every single dollar that it spends.

#19 According to the Congressional Budget Office, the U.S. government will have the biggest budget deficit ever recorded (approximately 1.5 trillion dollars) this year.

#20 It is being projected that the U.S. national debt will increase by $150,000 per U.S. household between 2009 and 2021.


http://www.dailymarkets.com/economy/201 ... ing-signs/

[kennynah]

the "warning sign" is that people are scaring themselves into believing there will be an oncoming double dip in the world's economies...

so..lorry up, my friends for the long haul uphill ride....

me ..looking at bank counters....no action yet though...

[winston]

Davis’ Tips for How to Identify a Market Top

How do you identify times when the stock market is nearing a top? Ned Davis of Ned Davis Research uses several metrics, and, right now, on balance, they’re indicating the bull market has more room to run.

“There are a number of things about this market that concern me as a risk manager,” Davis recently said, according to MarketWatch’s Mark Hulbert. But, overall, Davis says he “leans bullish” for the time being.

Davis, Hulbert notes, uses four main indicators to assess whether the market is nearing or at a top. They are:

• Valuation, which right now is giving a mixed message depending on which valuation metric you look at;
• Sentiment, which according to Davis is quite high and the most bearish indicator right now;
• Market Breadth, which is the most bullish of the four indicators right now;
• Interest rates, which Davis’ firm says are providing cause for concern but aren’t yet outright bearish.

All in all, Hulbert says that Ed Clissold, Davis’ Global Equity Strategist, concludes that though there are some worrisome signs on the horizon, his firm is giving the bull the benefit of the doubt.

http://theguruinvestor.com/2011/04/15/d ... arket-top/

[winston]

TWO INTERESTING DIVERGENCES… by Cullen Roche

While the markets have continued to melt higher on the hopes of perpetual Fed easing and “better than expected” earnings, some interesting divergences are occurring.

In particular, copper prices and the Shanghai Composite are in retreat.

The Shanghai Index has proven to be a particularly good leading index in recent years. While the recent divergence is short-lived it is worth keeping an eye on.

Slower growth in Asia would be foreshadowed by their equity markets (which have a very high correlation with commodity prices and copper in particular) and as I’ve continually said – slower growth in Asia would be very troubling for a western world that is barely gripping onto a sustainable recovery.

http://pragcap.com/two-interesting-divergences

[winston]

WARNING SIGNS

It is been my belief that stocks and the economy have been locked in a secular bear market since March of 2000. During that period we've had two recessions and two cyclical bear markets. One of those recessions was the worst since the Great Depression and the last bear market in stocks was the second worst in history.

I've said all along that printing money will not cure the problem we've gotten ourselves into. It's never worked in history and it's not going to work this time either. We can't solve a problem of too much debt with more debt. All we will accomplish is to make the problem bigger.

We are now fast approaching the period when the next crisis should arrive.

http://goldscents.blogspot.com/2011/05/ ... signs.html

[winston]

A Warning from the Depths of Hell by Joshua M Brown

Remember ye the dark days of late 2007 when it first became apparent that the stock market's new highs were lying to us and that only the bond market was telling the truth?

An ice-cold hand from those long-buried days is reaching back from the grave and grabbing hold of the bond market now in much the same way. The below chart I'm about to show you from the folks at Kimble Charting Solutions will give you the chills at a minimum...

What you're looking at below is high yield bonds breaking support while the long bond breaks resistance concurrently - this happened as a precursor to the equity market's crash and may be happening now for the first time since.

Click to Embiggen (if you dare):

Consider this a warning sign from the very depths of the hell that was the onset of the credit crisis. Something to be aware of.

Source:

Stock market Warning Being Sent from the Bond Market - for the First Time Since 2007! (Kimble Charting Solutions)

http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/0 ... s-of-hell/