Oil & Gas 01 (May 08 - Jul 08)

Re: Oil & Gas

Postby blid2def » Fri Jun 20, 2008 12:44 am

kennynah wrote:luckily got english writeup....else, by the time flip the chinese dictionary, the f*cking war is over.


You use Firefox 3 right? Install Chinese Perakun add-on, here:

http://perapera.wordpress.com/2008/02/2 ... -versions/

Download the Chinese Perakun 1.0 (2nd item in the blue widget box on the left).

The Firefox 3 version of the add-on is in beta, but still works. If unstable, then just go to Tools - Add-ons and uninstall or disable (and wait for official release).

How to use:
1. Download the <whatever>.xpi file
2. Use Firefox to open the file; it'll ask if you want to install. Answer is obvious.
3. Install
4. Restart browser; when you want to use it, just go to Tools and click on Chinese Pera-kun. Better still, right click on the bar with the buttons, select "Customize" - choose the Chinese Pera-kun button and drop it on the bar. Anytime you wanna use it, just click the button.

How it works? Mouse over some Chinese words and see. Got other pattern also - let you explore.

You'll (almost) never need a dictionary again. :D
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Re: Oil & Gas

Postby kennynah » Fri Jun 20, 2008 12:47 am

sui lah....soon i will be a chinese linguist....thanks for this link...will try soon.... check out what is the translation of "WTF" in chinese.... 什么的富克
Last edited by kennynah on Fri Jun 20, 2008 12:55 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Oil & Gas

Postby blid2def » Fri Jun 20, 2008 12:50 am

什么干? Hahahaha... okay too OT liao; back to 油油...
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Re: Oil & Gas

Postby Musicwhiz » Fri Jun 20, 2008 9:40 am

Business Times - 20 Jun 2008

Lack of ships curtailing deepwater drilling


Rig shortage means slow oil supply growth despite new oil discoveries

(NEW YORK) As President George Bush calls for repealing a ban on drilling off most of the coast of the United States, a shortage of ships used for deepwater offshore drilling promises to impede any rapid turnaround in oil exploration and supply.

In recent years, this global shortage of drill-ships has created a critical bottleneck, frustrating energy company executives and constraining their ability to exploit known reserves or find new ones.

Slow growth in oil supplies, at a time of soaring demand, has been a major factor in the spike of oil and gasoline prices.

But even as oil trades at more than US$135 a barrel - up from US$68 a year ago - the world's existing drill-ships are booked solid for the next five years. Some oil companies have been forced to postpone exploration while waiting for a drilling rig, executives and analysts said.

Demand is so high that shipbuilders, the biggest of whom are in Asia, have raised prices since last year by as much as US$100 million a vessel to about half a billion dollars.

As a result, drilling costs for some of the newest deepwater rigs in the Gulf of Mexico - the nation's top source of domestic oil and natural gas supplies - have reached about US$600,000 a day, compared with US$150,000 a day in 2002.

These record prices have spurred a new wave of drill-ship construction. This boom could lead to renewed offshore oil exploration that would eventually bring more supplies to the oil market, and push down prices.

Already, 16 new drill-ships are scheduled to be delivered to oil companies this year - more than double the number delivered over the last six years combined. In fact, 75 ultra-deepwater rigs should be delivered from this year to 2011, according to ODS-Petrodata, a firm that tracks drilling rigs.

Shipyards from South Korea to Norway are working overtime to meet a huge influx of orders.

Robert Long, the chief executive office of Transocean, the world's largest drilling company, said that he has nine deepwater rigs under construction, eight of which are already under contract for periods of four to seven years once they leave the shipyards. He expects to receive the ships between the beginning of next year and the end of 2010.

Transocean believes that the deepwater market will continue to be constrained until at least 2012. Over three-quarters of the drill-ships currently under construction have already been contracted to oil companies eager to benefit from triple-digit oil prices, Mr Long said.

Petrobras, whose full name is Petroleo Brasileiro, is expected to drive much of the growth in the booming market.

The company has outlined an aggressive programme to increase its drilling capacity, and plans to contract or build 69 deepwater drill-ships by 2017.

Brazil stunned the oil world when it announced the discovery of a vast oil field 322km south of Rio de Janeiro last November. Energy experts said that the field could turn out to be just a small part of the largest oil discovery in 30 years.

But seven months later, the problem is still how to retrieve it as Petrobras has only three rigs capable of drilling in waters that exceed 6,500 feet, like at the sites of the new fields.

But drilling constraints are not the only problem facing international oil companies, which are seeking to expand at a furious pace after a decade of underinvestment in the 1990s. They have also had to contend with a doubling of development costs across the industry in the last five years, more acute competition for energy resources, shortages in steel, engineering and manufacturing capacity, and pressures posed by an aging work force.

Also, gaining access to countries that hold oil reserves is becoming tougher as many oil-rich governments see fewer incentives to raise production as they reap the benefits of higher prices.

As a result, explorers are scouring ever-more remote corners of the globe in their hunt for hydrocarbons. That quest has found petroleum reserves off the shores of Africa and Brazil, and opened up promising exploration regions in the South China Sea, off the shore of India, and around the coast of Australia. But those sites will remain largely off-limits until the new drill-ships arrive\. \-- NYT
:)
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Re: Oil & Gas

Postby kennynah » Fri Jun 20, 2008 4:02 pm

it takes at least 10 years from start of oil rig exploration to harvestation of oil.... like grow durian trees like dat...
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Re: Oil & Gas

Postby millionairemind » Fri Jun 20, 2008 8:36 pm

China's petrol decision risks inflaming motorists and inflation
By Graham Ruddick
Last Updated: 11:37am BST 20/06/2008
China's decision to raise the price of petrol and diesel has provoked angry scenes at the country's petrol stations.

Police and government officials were called to petrol stations as motorists flocked to the pumps before midnight to buy petrol before the price increases took effect. Some petrol stations refused to provide fuel until midnight, leaving customers frustrated.

In Shanghai the police were alerted, while in Beijing government officials watched over garages to ensure there was no trouble.

China increased the price of gasoline and diesel fuel by 1,000 yuan per tonne (£74), a 16.7pc hike, while aviation fuel rose 1,500 yuan. Chinese demand has helped underpin this year's surge in oil prices which is set to be discussed at a summit in Saudi Arabia this weekend.


China and India lose their appeal on inflation
The move by Beijing follows a similar scrapping of subsidies in other Asian countries including India, Indonesia and Malaysia. But the move surprised analysts, who expected China, the world's second biggest oil consumer, to wait until after the Beijing Olympics before raising prices because of fears it would cause civil unrest.

However, while potentially curbing the long-term rise in oil, the move threatens to fuel the country's already high rate of inflation.

"If China and India are going to continue to roll back subsidies, then clearly we have not seen a peak in inflation," said Joseph Tan, a strategist at Fortis Bank SA in Singapore. "They need to tighten monetary policy, which means that growth is going to slow."

The price of oil fell nearly five dollars in New York to $131.93 after the announcement, but rose slightly in early trading on Friday to $132.16.

"I think it's very significant," said David Ernsberger, the Asia director of global energy information provider Platts. "It is going to eat into demand I'm pretty sure about that."
"If a speculator is correct half of the time, he is hitting a good average. Even being right 3 or 4 times out of 10 should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly on the ventures where he has been wrong" - Bernard Baruch

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Re: Oil & Gas

Postby winston » Sat Jun 21, 2008 11:31 am

A LITTLE PERSPECTIVE ON THE OIL MARKET

It's hard to believe now, but crude oil was under $20 a barrel back in 2002. The U.S. economy was weak, and Chinese demand hadn't entered overdrive yet.

Since then, the bull market in oil has behaved like every other one since the beginning of time: Run higher, then correct. Run higher, then correct. Occasionally, run way higher, then correct.

Oil ran all the way from $55 to $135 in the past 18 months – a 145% run for those of you scoring at home.

Moves like this almost always precede sharp corrections.
The market doesn't "like" to carry a lot of people onto easy money for long. You can see how a decline down to $105 would be totally reasonable in the context of the rally. Even a decline down to $70 would leave oil in the realm of its long-term trend.

So... for the oil investors out there: Expect a decline. A $40 haircut isn't unreasonable in this wild market. But chances are, it would be a healthy correction in the midst of a long-term bull market.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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Re: Oil & Gas

Postby blid2def » Sat Jun 21, 2008 11:45 pm

Source: http://www.moneyweek.com/file/49068/can ... spike.html

Can the Saudis soften the record oil spike?

Oil has hit another record, almost reaching $140 a barrel this week. The latest spike was caused by a fire at a Norwegian North Sea oil field. Prices then subsided on reports that Saudi Arabia, the only oil producer in a position to expand output fast, is set to boost supplies this weekend.

The fear in Saudi Arabia is that high prices will crimp demand for oil and spur investment in alternative energy, undercutting future demand, said Neil King in The Wall Street Journal. The increase is expected to be around 250,000 barrels per day (bpd), taking output to 9.7 million barrels a day, a 27-year high.

Will this help? As Barclays Capital noted, it won’t do much to offset “significant output losses” in other Opec nations. A strike in Nigeria could still go ahead, resulting in 350,000 bpd being lost. The Norwegian oil field fire has cost 150,000 barrels a day. The production boost also means delving into Saudi Arabia’s “already thin” spare capacity, as King said; current production capacity is 11.4 million bpd.

If Saudi Arabia were to raise production by 500,000, as has been rumoured, in order to give the move a greater impact on the market, its spare capacity would be just 1.4 million, said Jamie Chisholm in the FT. That’s so little that a major supply shock, such as a terrorist attack or another Hurricane Katrina, would cause a sharp spike. And then there would be “no more ammunition” to restrain the bulls.
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Re: Oil & Gas

Postby kennynah » Sun Jun 22, 2008 12:08 am

TOL here....

if i was a beneficiary of oil, i would milk the world for as much and for as long as sustainable... and right now, i see that the demand for oil has not dropped off. alternate energy is not a viable solution in the large scale yet. even with the advent of nuclear energy, most countries are hesitant to adopt this path, either due to lack of resources or sheer investments involved.

but i need to placate the world, over this weekend.... i will craft a message that may not fan the raging inferno now...but i certainly wont be sending in the fire brigades... in fact, i will ensure that the fire burns for a long long time...and if possible, never ever put out...
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Re: Oil & Gas

Postby millionairemind » Sun Jun 22, 2008 7:51 am

K - To counter your thinking... here is a piece I just read in The Economist, which might help explain Y the House of Sauds are worried about the oil prices.

The puzzle of oil production
Jun 19th 2008 | CAIRO
From The Economist print edition

Why the Saudis are worried about the high price of crude


WITH oil prices nudging $140 a barrel, Saudi Arabia stands to receive a windfall this year of up to $400 billion, double what it earned from selling oil last year. Gloom at the world's petrol pumps, it may be assumed, can only mean hand-rubbing glee for their biggest supplier. Such is the case with some of the kingdom's rivals in the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the cartel that supplies over one-third of the world's crude. Iran, for instance, has consistently argued against doing anything to bring down prices. Why, then, have the Saudis mounted a risky bid to do just that, by boosting oil output and summoning the world's top energy officials to an emergency meeting in Jeddah on June 22nd?

The reasons span history, economics and geopolitics. No one in the Saudi oil ministry has forgotten what happened after the oil shock in the 1970s. The Arab boycott called in 1973 to protest against Western backing for Israel tripled oil prices. But it also prompted oil exploration in tricky places such as the North Sea and conservation measures that reduced demand. The result was a long-term slump in crude prices and a drop in the Saudis' market share.

The Saudis fear that the intensified search by the West for alternative energy will result in the same thing happening again. But the more immediate worry is that high oil prices may slow not just America's but the whole world's economy. That would trigger a sharp fall in demand for Saudi oil. Just as bad, a sharp global slowdown would slash the value of the kingdom's hundreds of billions of dollars in overseas holdings. No wonder Ali al-Nuaimi, like his predecessors as Saudi oil minister, often cites “customer satisfaction” and “market stability”.

Saudis retain another nasty memory from the 1970s. Branded as gluttons, they became a stock figure of ridicule in Western cartoons. And sudden wealth brought social strains at home that helped create a fundamentalist backlash that produced, among other things, al-Qaeda. The Saudi desire not to be stigmatised for the world's woes, this time, may be gauged by their donation, last month, of a generous $500m to the UN's World Food Programme.

Today's sky-high oil price carries another political risk. It empowers Iran, the revolutionary Shia state that the conservative Sunni Saudis view as their main rival for regional influence. Even as the world has ratcheted up sanctions to punish Iran for its suspected nuclear ambitions, the Islamic Republic has cashed in the rewards from soaring fuel prices. The tightness of the oil market has become, in effect, a line of defence for Iran, letting its radical leadership hint, truthfully, that any hostile act that may impede the flow of Iranian oil would risk a global economic decline.

So Saudi Arabia's motives for wanting to lower prices are clear. The trouble is that it cannot manipulate markets as before. The kingdom has a fifth of known reserves. It supplies an eighth of the world's oil and remains, crucially, the only producer with at least some spare capacity. A huge investment plan under way should raise its capacity from 11.3m barrels a day in 2007 to 12.5m by next year. Noting pleas from George Bush and Ban Ki-moon, the UN's secretary-general, the Saudis have upped actual production twice in the past month, raising it by 500,000 barrels a day to its present level of 9.5m.

But much of that new output, and most of the reserve capacity, is in the form of heavier oils that are costlier to refine and for which there is less thirst. The Saudis are unlikely to bring new, lighter crude, or bigger refining capacity for their heavier oils, onto world markets until next year. Even then the incremental rise may not offset demand. So energy watchers hope the Jeddah conference will reveal something bolder than promises of more oil.
"If a speculator is correct half of the time, he is hitting a good average. Even being right 3 or 4 times out of 10 should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly on the ventures where he has been wrong" - Bernard Baruch

Disclaimer - The author may at times own some of the stocks mentioned in this forum. All discussions are NOT to be construed as buy/sell recommendations. Readers are advised to do their own research and analysis.
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