oil go up ~$18 on thurs/fri...and today drop $4 only...wah piang...so strong ah... suppose to be slippery and fall off one...but never...drop all of 25% only... sigh...
settled at ~134.50pbl
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Oil & Gas 01 (May 08 - Jul 08)
Re: Oil & Gas
by kennynah » Tue Jun 10, 2008 3:31 am
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Re: Oil & Gas
by HengHeng » Tue Jun 10, 2008 3:39 am
i think is to lure people in as bait. COTs shows decreased longs .. but no increase in shorts ... guess they waiting for the big one.
meanwhile still waiting for 10cent to turn 5 bucks
meanwhile still waiting for 10cent to turn 5 bucks
Beh Ki Jiu Lou , Beh lou Jiu Ki lor < Newton's law of gravity , but what don't might not come back
In the game of poker , "if you've been in the game 30mins and you don't know who the patsy is, you are the patsy
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Re: Oil & Gas
by winston » Tue Jun 10, 2008 8:57 am
Farrell: Breaking Down Oil Demand
06/09/08 - 03:16 PM EDT by Vincent Farrell Jr.
Factoid: Friday's nearly $11 move in oil was equal to the price of an entire barrel of oil in late 1998 (Saturday's WSJ).
The decline in the dollar caused by the head of the European Central Bank's (ECB) statement that interest rates there may have to be raised, Morgan Stanley's call for $150 oil by July (since they see heavy tanker shipments to the Far East), and an Israeli minister's statement that they may bomb Iranian nuclear facilities caused near panic in the market and an upward spiraling price.
There is a lot of speculation as well that oil short-sellers were forced to buy back their contracts at ever escalating prices. High prices bring about their own decline, as demand is destroyed at some point. The U.S. uses about one-quarter of the world's daily oil production and it looks like we are finally getting serious about the price. It's probably OK to ignore a rising oil price if you're getting rich at the same time. But with the housing decline, unsettled financial markets and anemic wage growth, it shouldn't be too surprising that anecdotal evidence of conservation is appearing.
Miles driven in the U.S are down for the first time in years, GM (GM - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) is talking about unloading the gas-guzzling Hummer as sales plummet (who's the buyer?), surveys report travel/vacation plans are being canceled, TV sales are up, as being a couch potato appears cheaper, and airlines have dramatically cut flights and taken planes out of service. Mass transit is reporting a surge in ridership as well, although most Americans still drive to work.
The Department of Energy expects demand in the U.S to shrink by 330,000 barrels a day this year. My guess is this is the tip of the iceberg signifying a massive shift to conservation, as high prices dramatically change consumer-spending patterns. Whether it will be enough to keep the U.S out of a recession is the question that will be answered over the next few months.
The emerging markets are reeling under the price as well. India, Indonesia, Malaysia and Taiwan have scaled back their subsidies. This will put upward pressure on inflation, but they have little choice since their state-run oil companies are losing troubling amounts of money, and the subsidies are getting to be a noticeable share of GDP.
The Financial Times took a stab at comparing prices in the U.S to those of subsidized countries. In Saturday's edition, they said that if gas was $1 a liter in the U.S., it would be .64 cents in China, .12 cents in Saudi Arabia, and .05 cents in Venezuela.
China has a budget surplus and the Olympics, so it will not be changing its stance anytime soon. Saudi Arabia uses as much oil per person, or a little more, than the U.S., but produces less than one-sixth the GDP from all that usage. Talk about wasteful practices! But they won't change either. The change necessary to bring about lower prices will have to come from the industrialized world.
There is an interview in this week's Barron's with Arjun Murti, the Goldman Sachs oil analyst, who has correctly predicted the spike in oil prices. He feels that in time, oil will be back to $75, but that the price has to be high enough to destroy demand. He figures that to be somewhere in a range of $150 to $200 a barrel. The article is worth reading.
I continue to guess that we are at a price high enough to kill off demand, and that oil will correct back toward $100, which would be a 50% retracement of its rise over the last year.
06/09/08 - 03:16 PM EDT by Vincent Farrell Jr.
Factoid: Friday's nearly $11 move in oil was equal to the price of an entire barrel of oil in late 1998 (Saturday's WSJ).
The decline in the dollar caused by the head of the European Central Bank's (ECB) statement that interest rates there may have to be raised, Morgan Stanley's call for $150 oil by July (since they see heavy tanker shipments to the Far East), and an Israeli minister's statement that they may bomb Iranian nuclear facilities caused near panic in the market and an upward spiraling price.
There is a lot of speculation as well that oil short-sellers were forced to buy back their contracts at ever escalating prices. High prices bring about their own decline, as demand is destroyed at some point. The U.S. uses about one-quarter of the world's daily oil production and it looks like we are finally getting serious about the price. It's probably OK to ignore a rising oil price if you're getting rich at the same time. But with the housing decline, unsettled financial markets and anemic wage growth, it shouldn't be too surprising that anecdotal evidence of conservation is appearing.
Miles driven in the U.S are down for the first time in years, GM (GM - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) is talking about unloading the gas-guzzling Hummer as sales plummet (who's the buyer?), surveys report travel/vacation plans are being canceled, TV sales are up, as being a couch potato appears cheaper, and airlines have dramatically cut flights and taken planes out of service. Mass transit is reporting a surge in ridership as well, although most Americans still drive to work.
The Department of Energy expects demand in the U.S to shrink by 330,000 barrels a day this year. My guess is this is the tip of the iceberg signifying a massive shift to conservation, as high prices dramatically change consumer-spending patterns. Whether it will be enough to keep the U.S out of a recession is the question that will be answered over the next few months.
The emerging markets are reeling under the price as well. India, Indonesia, Malaysia and Taiwan have scaled back their subsidies. This will put upward pressure on inflation, but they have little choice since their state-run oil companies are losing troubling amounts of money, and the subsidies are getting to be a noticeable share of GDP.
The Financial Times took a stab at comparing prices in the U.S to those of subsidized countries. In Saturday's edition, they said that if gas was $1 a liter in the U.S., it would be .64 cents in China, .12 cents in Saudi Arabia, and .05 cents in Venezuela.
China has a budget surplus and the Olympics, so it will not be changing its stance anytime soon. Saudi Arabia uses as much oil per person, or a little more, than the U.S., but produces less than one-sixth the GDP from all that usage. Talk about wasteful practices! But they won't change either. The change necessary to bring about lower prices will have to come from the industrialized world.
There is an interview in this week's Barron's with Arjun Murti, the Goldman Sachs oil analyst, who has correctly predicted the spike in oil prices. He feels that in time, oil will be back to $75, but that the price has to be high enough to destroy demand. He figures that to be somewhere in a range of $150 to $200 a barrel. The article is worth reading.
I continue to guess that we are at a price high enough to kill off demand, and that oil will correct back toward $100, which would be a 50% retracement of its rise over the last year.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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Re: Oil & Gas
by winston » Tue Jun 10, 2008 9:29 am
The law of supply and demand is kicking in for airline passengers this summer – and not in their favor.
Despite a string of price increases this year, demand for summer flights remains strong and the USA's big airlines are continuing to fill more than 80% of their seats.
This week, six (American, United, Delta, Northwest, Continental, US Airways) raised prices again for flights on many domestic routes where there's no non-stop competition from low-fare carriers.
The result, says travel price guru Tom Parsons of BestFares.com, is that the cheapest tickets available on many routes in July are 100% to 300% higher than a year ago.
In April, U.S. domestic passengers paid an average of 13.28 cents to fly one mile. In March, that number, called yield, was 13.87 cents per mile. For all of 2007, the average yield was 12.66 cents. From 2002 to 2007, the average domestic yield never rose above 12.69 cents.
This year, yields have risen dramatically. The domestic average yield through the first four months of this year was 13.34 cents per mile flown, the highest since 2000's average domestic yield of 14.57 cents.
– USA TODAY
Despite a string of price increases this year, demand for summer flights remains strong and the USA's big airlines are continuing to fill more than 80% of their seats.
This week, six (American, United, Delta, Northwest, Continental, US Airways) raised prices again for flights on many domestic routes where there's no non-stop competition from low-fare carriers.
The result, says travel price guru Tom Parsons of BestFares.com, is that the cheapest tickets available on many routes in July are 100% to 300% higher than a year ago.
In April, U.S. domestic passengers paid an average of 13.28 cents to fly one mile. In March, that number, called yield, was 13.87 cents per mile. For all of 2007, the average yield was 12.66 cents. From 2002 to 2007, the average domestic yield never rose above 12.69 cents.
This year, yields have risen dramatically. The domestic average yield through the first four months of this year was 13.34 cents per mile flown, the highest since 2000's average domestic yield of 14.57 cents.
– USA TODAY
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Re: Oil & Gas
by kennynah » Tue Jun 10, 2008 5:46 pm
10 Jun 2008 09:25 GMT
UPDATE:IEA Sees Tighter Oil Market On Non-OPEC Supply,China
LONDON--The International Energy Agency painted an even more bullish picture of the global oil market Tuesday, saying that supply from non-OPEC countries is failing to keep up with consumption and that bigger declines in global oil demand are required to take the steam out of high crude prices.
Despite oil consumer hopes that falling oil demand in nations like the U.S. and Europe might help ease the tight global oil market, the IEA said much bigger declines in crude consumption are needed because rising costs and equipment shortages are hampering projects and the startup of new supplies.
"We've had very little supply growth this year so far in non-OPEC countries. There are some delayed projects in OPEC countries," said Lawrence Eagles, head of the IEA's oil market division, Dow Jones Newswires.
OPEC countries are pumping "flat out" but, as a result, the 13-nation's spare oil production capacity is now below 2 million barrels a day for the first time since late 2006, the IEA said its June oil market report.
This historically low level of spare capacity, following years of underinvestment, is made all the worse for oil markets and consumers because of struggling non-OPEC supply that is now expected to grow by just 500,000 barrels a day this year, just half the level expected many months ago.
For consumers, the new outlook is likely to mean little relief from today's record level prices, which traded about 70 cents lower in New York on a strengthening U.S. dollar at around $133.70 a day barrel at 0845 GMT Tuesday.
The Paris-based IEA, which acts as an energy advisor for developed nations, made further reductions to global oil demand growth for this year, as expected, amid recent downward revisions to economic growth rates in the U.S. and several European and Asian nations.
World oil demand is now seen registering growth of just 0.9%, or 800,000 barrels a day, this year and an expectation for growth of 2.18 million barrels a day last summer. Crude consumption is expected to sink into deeper negative territory in the U.S. and other wealthy nations with demand seen falling by 0.9%, or 450,000 barrels a day in 2008.
Such demand declines in some of the world's biggest consuming nations would normally push crude prices lower, but inadequate supply growth -- amid project delays in OPEC and non-OPEC nations and ailing energy sectors in places like Mexico -- are working to keep the global crude market tight.
Added to the mix is that demand in China, the Middle East, and Russia remains relatively robust despite the economic turbulence elsewhere in the world.
Chinese oil demand, the most important component to the growth in demand globally, was revised up by 50,000 barrels a day from the IEA's May report on the assumption that major reconstruction projects will get underway following the country's devastating earthquake last month.
Recent oil price increases in a host of Asian nations, like India and Malaysia, to combat rising inflation and exploding budgets should "slightly tame" oil demand growth in those countries, but economic growth, at this point, appears to be holding up in those countries, the IEA said.
UPDATE:IEA Sees Tighter Oil Market On Non-OPEC Supply,China
LONDON--The International Energy Agency painted an even more bullish picture of the global oil market Tuesday, saying that supply from non-OPEC countries is failing to keep up with consumption and that bigger declines in global oil demand are required to take the steam out of high crude prices.
Despite oil consumer hopes that falling oil demand in nations like the U.S. and Europe might help ease the tight global oil market, the IEA said much bigger declines in crude consumption are needed because rising costs and equipment shortages are hampering projects and the startup of new supplies.
"We've had very little supply growth this year so far in non-OPEC countries. There are some delayed projects in OPEC countries," said Lawrence Eagles, head of the IEA's oil market division, Dow Jones Newswires.
OPEC countries are pumping "flat out" but, as a result, the 13-nation's spare oil production capacity is now below 2 million barrels a day for the first time since late 2006, the IEA said its June oil market report.
This historically low level of spare capacity, following years of underinvestment, is made all the worse for oil markets and consumers because of struggling non-OPEC supply that is now expected to grow by just 500,000 barrels a day this year, just half the level expected many months ago.
For consumers, the new outlook is likely to mean little relief from today's record level prices, which traded about 70 cents lower in New York on a strengthening U.S. dollar at around $133.70 a day barrel at 0845 GMT Tuesday.
The Paris-based IEA, which acts as an energy advisor for developed nations, made further reductions to global oil demand growth for this year, as expected, amid recent downward revisions to economic growth rates in the U.S. and several European and Asian nations.
World oil demand is now seen registering growth of just 0.9%, or 800,000 barrels a day, this year and an expectation for growth of 2.18 million barrels a day last summer. Crude consumption is expected to sink into deeper negative territory in the U.S. and other wealthy nations with demand seen falling by 0.9%, or 450,000 barrels a day in 2008.
Such demand declines in some of the world's biggest consuming nations would normally push crude prices lower, but inadequate supply growth -- amid project delays in OPEC and non-OPEC nations and ailing energy sectors in places like Mexico -- are working to keep the global crude market tight.
Added to the mix is that demand in China, the Middle East, and Russia remains relatively robust despite the economic turbulence elsewhere in the world.
Chinese oil demand, the most important component to the growth in demand globally, was revised up by 50,000 barrels a day from the IEA's May report on the assumption that major reconstruction projects will get underway following the country's devastating earthquake last month.
Recent oil price increases in a host of Asian nations, like India and Malaysia, to combat rising inflation and exploding budgets should "slightly tame" oil demand growth in those countries, but economic growth, at this point, appears to be holding up in those countries, the IEA said.
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Re: Oil & Gas
by winston » Tue Jun 10, 2008 10:06 pm
So funny to see the "experts" giving a Target Price for Oil to two decimal places. No more respect for Citi now
==========================================
Crude Oil Rises as Citigroup, Merrill Lynch Increase Forecasts
By Mark Shenk
June 10 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose more than $1 a barrel as Merrill Lynch & Co. and Citigroup Inc. increased their price forecasts amid concern that supply from outside OPEC isn't climbing as fast as expected.
Citigroup boosted its 2008 Brent outlook 22 percent to $116.60 a barrel, while Merrill Lynch raised its forecast by 14 percent to $114. The International Energy Agency lowered its estimate for non-OPEC output this year by 300,000 barrels a day to 50.04 million, in its monthly report today.
``Supply trends are growing slower than demand,'' said Adam Sieminski, Deutsche Bank's chief energy economist, in New York. ``Prices are going to continue moving higher until the market becomes convinced that supply and demand will be in better balance by 2010 and beyond.''
Crude oil for July delivery rose $1.90, or 1.4 percent, to $136.25 a barrel at 9:26 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures, which reached a record $139.12 a barrel on June 6, are more than double the level of a year ago.
Brent crude oil for July settlement rose $2.07, or 1.6 percent, to $135.98 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange. Prices climbed to a record $138.12 on June 6.
OAO Gazprom, the world's biggest natural-gas company, expects oil prices to reach $250 a barrel ``in the foreseeable future'' as competition for energy resources increases, Chief Executive Officer Alexei Miller said.
Price Jump
``We are witnesses of a big jump in the price of hydrocarbons,'' Miller told reporters today in Deauville, France.
Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said yesterday that producing and consuming nations should meet ``soon'' to discuss how to deal with the record cost of crude, which ``isn't justified in terms of market fundamentals.'' Saudi Arabia is the world's top oil exporter and the most influential member in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
``It's a step in the right direction, and I hope it will end up with some decisions which will lift spare production capacity upwards,'' said Fatih Birol, chief economist at the IEA. ``The main expectations that we have from those discussions is that there is an agreement to have more investment.''
The IEA is a Paris-based organization that advises 27 developed nations on energy policy.
==========================================
Crude Oil Rises as Citigroup, Merrill Lynch Increase Forecasts
By Mark Shenk
June 10 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose more than $1 a barrel as Merrill Lynch & Co. and Citigroup Inc. increased their price forecasts amid concern that supply from outside OPEC isn't climbing as fast as expected.
Citigroup boosted its 2008 Brent outlook 22 percent to $116.60 a barrel, while Merrill Lynch raised its forecast by 14 percent to $114. The International Energy Agency lowered its estimate for non-OPEC output this year by 300,000 barrels a day to 50.04 million, in its monthly report today.
``Supply trends are growing slower than demand,'' said Adam Sieminski, Deutsche Bank's chief energy economist, in New York. ``Prices are going to continue moving higher until the market becomes convinced that supply and demand will be in better balance by 2010 and beyond.''
Crude oil for July delivery rose $1.90, or 1.4 percent, to $136.25 a barrel at 9:26 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures, which reached a record $139.12 a barrel on June 6, are more than double the level of a year ago.
Brent crude oil for July settlement rose $2.07, or 1.6 percent, to $135.98 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange. Prices climbed to a record $138.12 on June 6.
OAO Gazprom, the world's biggest natural-gas company, expects oil prices to reach $250 a barrel ``in the foreseeable future'' as competition for energy resources increases, Chief Executive Officer Alexei Miller said.
Price Jump
``We are witnesses of a big jump in the price of hydrocarbons,'' Miller told reporters today in Deauville, France.
Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said yesterday that producing and consuming nations should meet ``soon'' to discuss how to deal with the record cost of crude, which ``isn't justified in terms of market fundamentals.'' Saudi Arabia is the world's top oil exporter and the most influential member in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
``It's a step in the right direction, and I hope it will end up with some decisions which will lift spare production capacity upwards,'' said Fatih Birol, chief economist at the IEA. ``The main expectations that we have from those discussions is that there is an agreement to have more investment.''
The IEA is a Paris-based organization that advises 27 developed nations on energy policy.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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Re: Oil & Gas
by LenaHuat » Wed Jun 11, 2008 5:45 pm
winston wrote:So funny to see the "experts" giving a Target Price for Oil to two decimal places. No more respect for Citi now
Ya hor.
2day the CEO of the Kremlim-controlled Gazprom said : "It's only the beginning".
What
"The escalation in oil prices."
(Source : The Independent. Amended)Ouch
It's too mild a response. Downing Street is asking consumers not to panic buy petrol.
Ouch
Let's see what the 44th President-to-be of the US can do about oil
44th
Ouch
My chest is compressed From : otiose housewife of the Jeff Chang-era lor. So don't take this too seriously.
Last edited by LenaHuat on Wed Jun 11, 2008 6:03 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Please be forewarned that you are reading a post by an otiose housewife. 
****@@
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Re: Oil & Gas
by kennynah » Wed Jun 11, 2008 5:51 pm
hahaha L :
seldom see you so animated... i like... so alive.... and expressive.... as if broken out of an "otoise" lifestyle suddenly... hahaha... always nice to see your post daily...
(the one period, u didnt come a visiting, you were sorely missed by all here...)
seldom see you so animated... i like... so alive.... and expressive.... as if broken out of an "otoise" lifestyle suddenly... hahaha... always nice to see your post daily...
(the one period, u didnt come a visiting, you were sorely missed by all here...)
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..................................................................<A fool gives full vent to his anger, but a wise man keeps himself under control-Proverbs 29:11>.................................................................
.(Trading Discipline : The Science of Constantly Acting on Knowledge Consistently - kennynah).Investment Strategies & Ideas..................................................................<A fool gives full vent to his anger, but a wise man keeps himself under control-Proverbs 29:11>.................................................................-
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Re: Oil & Gas
by HengHeng » Wed Jun 11, 2008 6:01 pm
Anyway i read on some reports that Russians is having a dropping supply on oil/max their producing capacities which might post some problems in the future. 200 might be too high but might be feasible assuming if US continues to print more money.
Anyway , from what Helicopter Ben says we might see further USD strenght in the near future and this might put a tempory top for oil prices near term. We would have to see whether if US is willing to declare reccesion or not .. as long as never then oil would only go up further mid and long term.
Anyway , from what Helicopter Ben says we might see further USD strenght in the near future and this might put a tempory top for oil prices near term. We would have to see whether if US is willing to declare reccesion or not .. as long as never then oil would only go up further mid and long term.
Beh Ki Jiu Lou , Beh lou Jiu Ki lor < Newton's law of gravity , but what don't might not come back
In the game of poker , "if you've been in the game 30mins and you don't know who the patsy is, you are the patsy
In the game of poker , "if you've been in the game 30mins and you don't know who the patsy is, you are the patsy
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Re: Oil & Gas
by kennynah » Wed Jun 11, 2008 6:04 pm
<<US is willing to declare reccesion or not .. as long as never then oil would only go up further mid and long term.>>
this is a refreshing thought...i will KIM (keep in mind)... thanks.
this is a refreshing thought...i will KIM (keep in mind)... thanks.
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