Oil & Gas 01 (May 08 - Jul 08)

[b0rderc0llie]

Hi Kenny,

Long time no see haha. You still on short position in oil? I have been holding my short position since March. If oil goes below 105, I will break-even and begin to see some profits. If not, will still be sitting on losses.

[littlecupid]

hi littlecupid :

thanks for your inputs.

interesting view on a higher crude oil price in the long term.

do u mind sharing, what time frame you are referring to and to what level you forecast Oil will rise to?

thanks.

K

hi K,

Very hard to forecast as there are too many dynamics... just expressing my view. Probably oil traders have better feel for this.

But I don't mind buying oil futures if it drop to US80.

As mention above, IMHO oil will probably trade range bound till at least aft the Olympics & US elections.

When or if it crashes, it will be good to pick up.

Oil is fundamentally a finite resource with too many easy money around. One thing is how high it will go is dependant on how successful US dollar is successful in exporting inflation...ie whether US is still the world currency ( businesses transaction / commodities (oil etc)) ...this is something we can consider for how long to take the ride

[kennynah]

bc : good to see u again...indeed too long... no positions in crude oil directly.. have a put oil related counter though... how, u see oil tanking anytime soon? still on your good trades? i have exited soon after it ran the $100 sprint up... going sides ways for some time now.. though, i am still very hesitant to sell any strangles...historicals show this baby can moodswing big time

littlecupid : many thanks for your views... usd80pbl..wow, at this juncture, does appear to be a tat ambitious though... of cos, if it does ever get back to that level, many, i am sure will be keen to Long Oil. best of luck !!!

[kennynah]

shortists at work...???
*******

05 Jun 2008 08:24 GMT

OIL: Newswire reports an explosion at a petrochemical facility at Kuwait Port. (Rtrs)

[kennynah]

but shortists bombed wrong target...

05 Jun 2008 08:57 GMT

OIL: Wire reports that blast at Kuwait petrochemical facility had no effect on oil exports or refinery ops.

[b0rderc0llie]

bc : good to see u again...indeed too long... no positions in crude oil directly.. have a put oil related counter though... how, u see oil tanking anytime soon? still on your good trades? i have exited soon after it ran the $100 sprint up... going sides ways for some time now.. though, i am still very hesitant to sell any strangles...historicals show this baby can moodswing big time

I see oil tanking when it was at 100. It went up to 137 instead :p So, I've no idea what oil will do in the future Have not explored options on oil futures yet. I'm using E-miNY Crude Oil futures, which I believe does not have an options market. Have been playing around selling calls and puts on the mini-dow and mini-S&P futures though, as well as having a short index futures position to hedge my long stock positions.

[kennynah]

bc : good to see u again...indeed too long... no positions in crude oil directly.. have a put oil related counter though... how, u see oil tanking anytime soon? still on your good trades? i have exited soon after it ran the $100 sprint up... going sides ways for some time now.. though, i am still very hesitant to sell any strangles...historicals show this baby can moodswing big time

I see oil tanking when it was at 100. It went up to 137 instead :p So, I've no idea what oil will do in the future Have not explored options on oil futures yet. I'm using E-miNY Crude Oil futures, which I believe does not have an options market. Have been playing around selling calls and puts on the mini-dow and mini-S&P futures though, as well as having a short index futures position to hedge my long stock positions.

bc : u solid lah...always maximise your asets for income... u smart man... post more...dont be stranger here. best of luck !!!

[kennynah]

1035pm +8gmt 5jun

US Natural Gas inventory buildup 105 BCF vs 103 expected...

[winston]

The cost of replacing oil reserves has reached $80 a barrel, meaning energy prices will remain high in the future, according to the head of Total SA, Europe's third-largest oil company.

The cost is a new "technical" floor for oil prices, Total Chief Executive Officer Christophe de Margerie told French deputies at a National Assembly commission today.

Raising crude output will depend on "convincing producing countries it is in their interest to produce more," said de Margerie, who has stressed that world shortages in supply will come from lack of access rather than dwindling reserves.

– Bloomberg

[kennynah]

The cost of replacing oil reserves has reached $80 a barrel, meaning energy prices will remain high in the future, according to the head of Total SA, Europe's third-largest oil company.

The cost is a new "technical" floor for oil prices, Total Chief Executive Officer Christophe de Margerie told French deputies at a National Assembly commission today.

Raising crude output will depend on "convincing producing countries it is in their interest to produce more," said de Margerie, who has stressed that world shortages in supply will come from lack of access rather than dwindling reserves.

– Bloomberg

i am beginning to be a little cautious about this TOTAL ceo's comments... this week, he reported that he is thinking of closing off a production plant in nigeria, just becos of militant threats (this doesnt make sense to me... ). if this is to be a normal practice of a large oil refiner/producer, then Exxon and Shell, will be among the first to do so... it is like throw away a toy becos it is troublesome...

of cos, it is expected that he needs to pump up oil price.