Warning Signs 01 (Oct 08 - Feb 15)

[winston]

Chart of the Day: Risk Ratio is Pushing Extremes by Lance Roberts

By Lance Roberts

http://pragcap.com/chart-of-the-day-ris ... g-extremes

[winston]

The Festering Weakness By Helene Meisler

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- The S&P 500 is little changed from March 15, yet it feels much worse than that.

If you're wondering why that is, take another look at all those statistics showing fewer stocks at new highs, which I've been harping about for a while now. In short, this is finally starting to matter.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/11877884 ... htmlbooyah

[winston]

Is This the Mila Kunis Top? by Marc Lichtenfeld

In case you haven’t noticed, the market has been on a tear. Since mid-November, the S&P 500 is up 16%. It has gone practically straight up since February 26. It’s gone up 10 of the last 13 trading sessions.

So it’s no surprise that bears and skeptics are looking for reasons for the market to turn south.

And last week they got a good one. Actress Mila Kunis told CNBC she’s started investing in stocks.

That got wannabe contrarians in a lather, calling a market top. It must be, they suggest, when a 29-year-old who is better known for playing opposite Ashton Kutcher in That 70′s Show rather than for her financial acumen starts spouting off about the stock market.

http://www.investmentu.com/2013/March/i ... s-top.html

[winston]

Contrarian Alert: Is This "Investing Jinx" Signaling a Stock Market Crash? By Ben Gersten

If you're contrarian, then Barron's latest "Big Money" poll and its magazine cover just gave you reasons to be on the lookout for a stock market crash.

The semiannual poll of professional investors found that 74% of money managers are bullish or very bullish about the prospects for U.S. stocks - an all-time high for Big Money, going back more than 20 years.

Barron's drives the point home with its over-the-top cover titled "Dow 16,000!"

But not everyone feels as confident as these polled investors - especially since the issue follows 2013's worst weekly performance for stocks.

http://moneymorning.com/2013/04/23/cont ... ket-crash/

[winston]

The Price Of Copper And 11 Other Recession Indicators That Are Flashing Red By Michael Snyder

Source: The Economic Collapse Blog

[winston]

Three Divergences Worth Watching By Jeff Clark

Back in the days when stocks used to go down as well as up, traders would look for and pay attention to "divergences" in the market.

Divergences occur when things that normally run together start going in opposite directions. They're early warning signs that signal a trend may be ending. And being able to spot them has always been a necessary skill for anyone trying to make a few bucks as a trader.

But nowadays, with the stock market only moving in one direction, most investors believe spotting divergences has become more amusing than useful. Like darning socks or shoeing horses, folks just don't seem to have much need for it anymore.

But even in this period of perpetually rising stock prices, old-timers like me are still watching for divergences. That way, when the market does finally fall – and it will fall – we can wag a finger at the youngsters and say, "Some things never change."

Here are some of the notable divergences that stand out today…

First of all, take a look at this two-month chart of the S&P 500…

The index is up 7% in two months. Over the past three weeks, we've seen a near vertical run higher with only a couple minor down days.

But unlike the S&P 500, copper is down 7% in the past two months. This divergence is notable since stocks and copper almost always run in the same direction.


The Volatility Index (the "VIX") is also showing some divergence… but in a slightly different way…

The VIX usually falls as stocks move higher. But over the past two months – as stocks have rallied – the VIX has gained 10%.

As I mentioned on Tuesday, volatility is at historically low levels. But with stocks trading at new all-time highs, we would expect the VIX to be hitting new lows for the year.

It's not – which is at least a curious divergence.

Finally, here's a divergence for the economists…


The Baltic Dry Index reflects the cost of shipping dry goods overseas. If the stock market is rallying because the economy is improving, as some analysts argue… then the BDI should be pressing higher to reflect increasing demand for shipping goods. But the BDI is down 5% since late March.

Maybe divergences don't mean anything anymore. The market has definitely ignored them over the last couple months.

Then again… some things never change. And I still recommend caution in stocks right now.

Source: www.growthstockwire.com

[winston]

Four Signs That We're Back in Dangerous Bubble Territory

Stocks, bonds – everything – at risk

by Chris Martenson


http://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/8195 ... -territory

[kennynah]

warning signs..

plenty of people have been talking shop about how wonderful the stock market is...

a friend text me ..."wah, if u had invested since Jan, you would be a millionaire loh"

RED FLAG

[winston]

USA Today Gets Bullish by JC Parets

When mainstream publications get wind of the bull market, we know for sure that it’s no longer a secret. This morning I couldn’t help myself, I had to pick up a copy of the USA Today.

I mean, there’s a huge Bull slapped right on the cover with the headline, “Bull Run Gets Solid Footing”. They follow up by proclaiming that the boost from home prices and consumer confidence proves that the rally is more than a Fed-induced ‘sugar high’. And they seem pretty confident about that.

Welcome to the Bull Market, USA Today:

The infograph on the front page explains how $12.8 Trillion in stock wealth has been produced since the March 2009 low. This represents a 155% gain for the Wilshire 5000.

You won’t get an argument from me as to whether or not this is classifies as a bullish sentiment cover page. When non-business related publications are making declarations such as this, it is a huge tell that the public has caught on. I felt much more confident being long this market when everyone thought the world was ending last summer.

Now, this is important: Wednesday’s USA Today cover is much different than The Economist “Wall Street is Back” Cover page from last month. That particular magazine is market and economics related. USA Today?

They leave them on your hotel room doorstep when you’re staying in small towns around the country. And they’re all excited about how this bull market is now on solid footing? Shouldn’t they be talking about how Miami is tied 2-2 with Indiana? Come on.

This one got my attention, and not in a good way.


http://allstarcharts.com/usa-today-gets-bullish/

[winston]

Why Is The Smart Money Suddenly Getting Out Of Stocks And Real Estate? By Michael Snyder

If wonderful times are ahead for U.S. financial markets, then why is so much of the smart money heading for the exits?

Does it make sense for insiders to be getting out of stocks and real estate if prices are just going to continue to go up?

Source: The Economic Collapse Blog

http://www.thetradingreport.com/2013/05 ... al-estate/