US - Market Direction 01 (May 08 - Jul 08)

[Chiron]

Maybe will go down to 12000, 11740 to test its low. Hoepfully current downtrend not in wave C, else we are in hellu of one down plunging ride!

[Chiron]

And must thanxs alot ot the contributors here for their analysis. These are what makes the forum valuable and meaningful

cheers

[millionairemind]

It sure looks ugly out there....

The only consolation is that Nasdaq volume was actually lower than Thursday's night...perhaps it will be knight in shining armour again this coming week and pull the other ailing indices along?? Machiam LS index like Ah Dow in coma, S&P with Ebola and NYSE with Yellow fever.

Once Nasdaq breaks 2450 with conviction, all bets are off and the hedge funds will be out with their knives and daggers...

Sigh... treacherous times..

I think better consult the Fengshui master who predicted volatile June and July's Financial Epidemic... perhaps another war in the ME will crash the party BIG TIME... , just like the ill conceived Israel war in the summer of 2006 that caused the major correction starting May 11 2006.

Lets see how things go...

Be careful out there, everyone..

[blid2def]

China will step in to ensure nothing happens to disrupt their Olympics this year.

Maybe.

To Israel: "Oi, siao eh - lim pei open party in August, now you want to hoot, give me some face okay?"
To Iran: "Oi, naboo - please lah, don't poke that guy lah, you know he emo one. You give me some face, I buy some more oil. Boleh?"

After Olympics:
To Israel and Iran: "Okay, kamsia for the face; now go wipe each other off the face of the Earth, not my fugging problem; may the best man win!"

[millionairemind]

China can't even keep their markets from falling apart... how to help the world??

I just checked the stats. Even with the BIG fall on Friday night, the NYSE short interest ratio is still at a 5-yr high...

Perhaps the oil and a war in the ME will be the trigger that W was talking about, leading to the financial collapse (as predicted by the Fengshui Master.. ) ?

Lets keep our heads cool if we are caught on the wrong side of the mkt and decide how to go about making the most of the situation.

[blid2def]

They not interested to help the world lah. But they interested to have good face. We Chinese mah, we should know - face more important than life.

[kennynah]

many fengshui fellas, tan jia only lah.... more keen to sell their jadites than anything else... prey on the down and out folks... the really got liao ones, where got time to peddle to small time customers... they only attend to the very wealthy and powerful..and some familee members.

[winston]

Bill King (The King Report): No reason to buy stocks now

“The technicals, seasonals, fundamentals and financial system conditions are negative. And now the Fed is suggesting that it will no longer cut rates. Rallies should be viewed as a gift from the trading gods.”

Source: Bill King, The King Report, June 4, 2008.

[winston]

John Hussman (Hussman Funds): Market climate for equities unfavourable

“… the market climate for stocks remains characterized by unfavorable valuations and unfavorable market action. The stock market remains relatively overbought, so there remains a continued risk of abrupt weakness given the unfavorable climate.

“Here and now, we remain defensive and very skeptical of the notion that the US has skirted a downturn.”

Source: John Hussman, Hussman Funds, June 2, 2008.

[winston]

Jeffrey Saut (Raymond James): Be on alert for “W-shaped” economic pattern

“‘Sell in May and go away’ is an old stock market ‘saw’ whose long-term track record is compelling.

To wit, starting in 1950 investing $10,000 in the SPX every May 1st and liquidating on October 31st compounds to a shockingly small $10,026 today. Conversely, buying the SPX every November 1st and selling every May 1st compounds to $372,890 (according to Ned Davis Research).

Yet we have learned the hard way that markets can do ANYTHING. For example, if you sold in May 2003 you missed a 30% rally into year end.

“With near-term stronger than expected economic statistics, increasing risk appetites, and commodities normalizing (read: declining, which should be bullish for equities), we think we could be in the middle of the envisioned ‘W-shaped’ economic pattern.

If so, the perception will be that the worst is behind us and stocks could continue to levitate until we enter the backside of the ‘W’ where a rise in interest rates should ameliorate any robust economic recovery. Consequently, we are currently ‘out’ of trading positions and focusing on investment positions, preferably ones with a yield.”

Source: Jeffrey Saut, Raymond James, June 2, 2008.