US - Market Direction 01 (May 08 - Jul 08)

[millionairemind]

san mei mei : aiya...my england no good mah....so draw ang kong ...

a side note about Naz...it does appear to be holding its grounds pretty well....but to borrow GR's phrase....

stand strong, doesnt mean last long

No ever lasting energizer batteries included???

[kennynah]

dear MM : u r too modest... always look forward to your posts...

which brings me to ask...

<<.... I will be starting my LONGS.. >>

so, u r beginning to take a bullish view?

[millionairemind]

K,

Still waiting for follow thro' day to start my longs... waiting waiting waiting.... zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

No follow thro' day = no long positions for me..

Cheers,
mm

[kennynah]

MM...noted.... i guess, u r focusing techs specifically...since nazdaq? (pls feel free to ignore this, as there is no imposition to reveal) thanks.

[kennynah]

Bulls WON scored big time....on 5 Jun 08

Volume situation

NYSE Composite Vol was slightly lower

DJIA Vol was higher >> antibiotics taking some effect on her



SP500 Vol was lower >>natural antibodies warded off the airborne virus




Nadaq Vol was higher >> president's scholar


Anyone who can see, can easily conclude that the indexes showed strength on 5 Jun 08. No need to further elaborate.

Just as it was prudent to be cautious about overly-bearish, today's srength in all major indexes, should also not instil confidence too early nor too aggressively embark onto a "bull"wagon. there is something called "one day wonders", not that i am suggesting this is in the making.

and hence,.......it would be very wise for all of us to visit the other relevant Charts to complete the story that is unfolding before us...

we are living the history creation of the markets we trade in..... exciting !

good luck everyone...Vaya con Dios and prosper !!!!!

[winston]

Bulls:-

1) If the market goes higher, some of the shorts would have to cover

2) Plenty of cash on sidelines. However, I think that these cash will find it's way into the market, only on a steep drop.

3) Absence of a risk, that is unquantifiable and can affect the market in a big way

4) Lower oil prices; Higher US$.
( However, Oil spiked last night and the market still went up due to the retailers and the big oil companies. Even the airlines were up on the Lehman Brothers report ).


Bears

1) Was the rally due to short-covering or new money entering the system ?

2) VIX is still relatively low. Still a lot of complacency

3) Although I can't find a catalyst for the market to drop, it does not mean that it does not exist

4) Higher oil prices; Lower US$

5) It's Friday tomorrow and some of the guys who bought on Thursday would want to get out before the week-end.


Comments on HK:-

Luckily, I got out of my puts in HK yesterday. If market gaps up today, I may buy a put on the HSI again. Monday is a holiday in HK and people would not want a big position before the week-end. Having said that, I've seen markets move up due to the thin volumes before a long weekend.

[millionairemind]

US uptrend resumes with all three indices scoring huge gains...Nasdaq was up 1.9%

Nasdaq again shows itself to be the leading index. It has captured all the lost grounds from the January correction and punched thro' a key resistance level - 200DMA.

Volume was just a tad lower on Nasdaq (<0.3%). However, the leading stocks as characterized by IBD 100 broke out with a 3.8% gain. Leading stocks must lead the rally for it to succeed.

That being said, do look out for major distribution day within a week of follow thro'... if that happens, it will kill off this rally in double quick time.

Also note that the NYSE short ratio edged even higher after last night's action at 14.36. This is still a major concern (at least for me)

Not a buy/sell recommendation. For this round, looks like the BEARS went off with tail between their legs licking their wounds...for now....

[Cherry]

Hi Kenny, Millionairemind and Winston

The three of you together treated me and other forummers to a symphony of great thoughts and opinions. Thanks milliontimes.

Kenny, your charts with the explanatory labels within the charts and the comments below serve as a very nutritious breakfast.

Winston, your insights under the headings bulls and bears and especially your thinking aloud of what you may do today going forward is a deliciously rare helping for our breakfast.

Millionairemind, your summary splashed with spicy info from all over the place serves as an exotic dessert.

A MOST BEAUTIFUL SYMPHONY. PLEASE KEEP IT RUNNING FOREVER AND EVER.

[mojo_]

Hi Kenny, Millionairemind and Winston

The three of you together treated me and other forummers to a symphony of great thoughts and opinions. Thanks milliontimes.

Yup, have to agree this is quality stuff from the 3 musketeers...

[winston]

Yup, have to agree this is quality stuff from the 3 musketeers...

Or the three stooges ....