HK & China - Market Direction 01 (May08 - Oct08)

[winston]

HK up 900 points now.

I still cant find a reason for the big move other than some rumor that BJ will support the property developers.

Maybe it is Short-covering ? I was looking at the short-selling re[ports and there's still alot of short-selling..

[kennynah]

let me remind all of the H2 saying...

beh ki jiu loh, beh loh jiu ki....

that captures all the reasons behind market movement....

although sometimes, market moves sideways,....that's when it is called "becky bellow" (credit to GR for coining this term)

[winston]

The Economic Observer quoted sources as saying the China Insurance Regulatory Commission told insurance companies on October 17 not to sell A shares during the current situation.

Insurance companies were told that if they sell off some stock holdings, they need to buy shares at the same time, according to the report.

[millionairemind]

STI machiam saved by Deepavali.. but not sure if it will matter when we open tomorrow..

Never believed that I will see another selldown as devastating as the last Asian currency crisis.. this is unprecedented... when funds leave... they leave dead bodies everywhere...

Hong Kong Stocks Drop Most in 11 Years Low on Earnings Concern

By Ian C. Sayson

Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Hong Kong's stocks fell, dragging the benchmark index to its biggest loss in 11 years, on mounting concern the global financial crisis and economic slowdown is hurting corporate earnings.

Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. dropped 11 percent, leading declines among financial stocks, after its profit growth slowed and as money-market rates jumped. Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. sank 15 percent after third-quarter profit slumped. Citic Pacific Ltd. tumbled 14 percent on a South China Morning Post report that its investors want compensation for losses resulting from failed bets on the Australian dollar.

The Hang Seng Index plunged 1,489.08, or 12 percent, to 11,129.30 as of 3:31 p.m. local time, heading for a five-day, 27 percent loss. The measure is heading for its biggest loss since Oct. 28, 1997. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which tracks the so-called H shares of Chinese companies, dropped 14 percent to 4,973.59.

``The declines in stocks and other asset classes are already telling us what will happen next year,'' said Winson Fong, who helps oversee more than $3 billion at SG Asset Management Hong Kong Ltd. ``Certainly, the global economy will slow down and the most probable scenario is that we will have a recession.''

[-dol-]

This is a global crisis... is it possible for it to be less spectacular than the Asian crisis?

I have lost confidence in Ben & Hank if they continue down this path in their policy response.

Two of Einstein's quotes comes to mind:

"We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them."
"Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result."

Look out for Fat Man & Little Boy

[kennynah]

ai zai ai zai.... nothing can be more damaging than self-inflicted running loose on our own emotions when the mkt is collapsing...

remember that for every loser, there is a winner on the other side of the trade.... so, what is catastrophe for one is a blessing for the other...

see the potential of making riches in this bear trend and perhaps suddenly, things may start to look really bright... but just be aware of the downrisk risks of taking bearish positions now...

[-dol-]

The market should be the least of our worries.

It's the real economy - that's what affects people's lives - and changes the course of history. People in 1929 never saw WW2 coming.

[kennynah]

yes dol...the economy is more important....and for the astute retail investors/traders, the equities mkt is usually a very good way to mitigate a downward spiralling economy

[millionairemind]

The market should be the least of our worries.

It's the real economy - that's what affects people's lives - and changes the course of history. People in 1929 never saw WW2 coming.

Agree with this. This was what happened after 1929.

If ppe. around the world believes that capitalism as well as globalization are dead, some different sort of thinking/process/system will fill this gap/void... and the answers might not be pretty.

Probably see another clash of the civilisations.

[millionairemind]

For those of you who may have missed out on the spectacular attack on the HKD and the stock market back in 97/98 and how the HK gahmen defended its currency pegs as well as the stock market... here is an interesting recap.

http://igcc.ucsd.edu/pdf/afc/afc_hongkong.pdf