CNOOC 0883

[winston]

not vested

DJ MARKET TALK: Cnooc Has Investors To Convince - BarCap

1332 [Dow Jones] After the worst operational performance in the company's history last year, Cnooc's (0883.HK) 2012 strategy update Wednesday (Jan. 18) "needs to convince investors that the business is overcoming its operational problems and can deliver production growth in the medium term," says Barclays Capital.

It doesn't expect the company to significantly alter its 6%-10% pa medium-term guidance, although the extent to which the company can offer output growth in 2012 partly depends on Peng Lai 19-3 and restoring the subsea pipeline link to the Zhuhai terminal.

It adds, capex guidance for 2012 at about US$8 billion may be sharply higher than 2011, but essentially the same as last year's original guidance before Cnooc's drilling schedule was disrupted by unplanned events.

BarCap has an Overweight rating on Cnooc with a price target of HK$21.00. The stock is up 3.0% at HK$15.28 at midday.

Source: Dow Jones Newswire

[winston]

not vested

Valuation

We believe CNOOC is quite aggressive with its 5-year production target, but production prospects in 2012 aren’t very exciting.

We price its low-end growth rate, 6% 5-year CAGR, into our DCF model, with WACC of 10.2%.

Also, given a 2012e P/E of 8.5x (still below historical mean) and EV/EBITDA of 4.9x, we see upside potential from the current depressed stock price.

We thus give CNOOC a ‘BUY’ rating with a target price of HK$18.71, with the assumption of a long-term WTI price of US$90/bbl.

Source: Philipps

[winston]

Tried to short GCL Poly this morning, even before I knew the MS news, but my broker (IB) kept telling me that there are no stocks available for shorting.

Not only this counter but also 0813, 0658, etc...

Now I see that those stocks had indeed a sizeable short volume. What did I do wrong ? I ended up shorting 0883 but that was rather lame...

Hmmm..... shorting a major Oil company during the Iran Crisis ?

[Atlas]

Ha! I admit it's a bit contrarian , but it did work out and I wasn't the only one:

MARKET TALK: HK Short Sales Ratio Drops To 3-Week Low (Dow Jones News)
Date: 2012/02/10 08:07


0759 [Dow Jones] Hong Kong bears are restrained, with Thursday's short sales ratio falling to a more than 3-week low of 7.2%, indicating that they
remained deterred by the broad market strength, despite the HSI's 0.04% pullback.

Total short-selling volume was at HK$6.49 billion, led by Anhui Conch Cement (0914.HK) with HK$280.38 million, and followed by Cnooc (0883.HK) with HK$240.66 million, and China Construction Bank (0939.HK) with HK$223.54 million.

A50 China Tracker (2823.HK) and Tencent (0700.HK) rounded out the top 5, with HK$215.03 million and HK$209.37 million respectively.

Second most heavily shorted stock on Thursday... I was actually long Petrochina and CNOOC since mid December when the tensions with Iran increased.

However, I sold them both at the begin of the week since I expect a major pullback, the markets are heavily overbought and the price of oil would suffer as well when the big correction comes. Iran is old news... but what do I know....

[Atlas]

...and I just repeated it with its US-ADR

[winston]

not vested

Cnooc, China’s biggest offshore energy producer, fell 3 percent to $218.93 in New York after its Hong Kong shares slipped 1 percent to HK$17.28, or $2.23.

One American depositary receipt is the equivalent of 100 ordinary shares.

The 1.8 percent discount was the widest since Dec. 28.


Source: Bloomberg

[winston]

not vested

DJ MARKET TALK: BarCap Prefers Cnooc Before FY Results
March 5, 2012

1411 [Dow Jones] Barclays Capital expects on average an 8% on-year rise in FY11 earnings for the China oil companies when the reporting season begins with COSL (2883.HK) on March 20;

It expects Cnooc (0883.HK) to show the strongest earnings momentum, driven mainly by oil prices, while it forecasts a fall in earnings for PetroChina (0857.HK), partly owing to a loss-making downstream business.

"We have a preference for Cnooc going into the results with the dividend more likely to surprise on the upside as 'a sweetener' to shareholders after a year the management would rather forget from an operational standpoint."

In contrast, Barclays sees downside earnings risks for Sinopec (0386.HK) and PetroChina, with uncertainty around the extent to which upstream and chemicals profitability can offset loss-making refining business.

Source: Dow Jones Newswire

[winston]

vested thru a Put Warrant.

DJ MARKET TALK: CS Cuts Cnooc To Neutral After Target Reached
Feb 24, 2012

1053 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Credit Suisse downgrades Cnooc (0883.HK) to Neutral from Outperform as the stock reached its target price of HK$17.60, which it leaves unchanged.

The house says it tweaked FY11 earnings estimates to reflect the partial benefit of the windfall tax threshold increase for 2011 and finalise crude price realisation.

The house tips FY11 net profit will come in at CNY71 billion or EPS of CNY1.59. It also notes that "Cnooc is preparing to spud the first of the three deepwater exploration wells in the South China Sea in March, the results being important from a long-dated perspective."

Source: Dow Jones Newswire

[winston]

*DJ Cnooc Target Cut TO HK$20.50 From HK$23.20 - HSBC

Mar 13, 2012

Source: Dow Jones Newswire

[winston]

not vested

DJ UPDATE: Cnooc 2011 Net Profit Rises 29% To CNY70.26 Bln

-- Cnooc 2011 net profit rose 29% because of higher average selling prices of its crude oil
-- Cnooc expects 2012 oil, gas output of 330 million-340 million barrels of oil equivalent
-- Expects 2011-2015 compound annual growth in oil, gas output around 6%-10%

HONG KONG (Dow Jones)--Cnooc Ltd. (CEO), China's biggest offshore oil and gas producer by output, Wednesday reported a 29% increase in 2011 net profit because of higher oil prices, though it set a conservative production output target this year, following the shutdown of its Bohai Bay oil field in northeast China in September.

The company is targeting a compound annual production growth rate of 6%-10% from 2011 to 2015 on the back of a combination of regional development projects, the use of enhanced recovery techniques at existing oil fields offshore China, as well as from deep-water projects.

"The company will continue to pursue value-driven acquisition strategies in order to create more room for reserve and production development," Chairman Wang Yilin said in a statement.

Net profit for the 12 months ended Dec. 31 was CNY70.26 billion (US$11.2 billion), up from CNY54.41 billion the previous year. It was slightly above the average CNY69.50 billion net profit forecast of 33 analysts polled earlier by Thomson Reuters.

Revenue rose 34% to CNY240.94 billion from CNY180.04 billion as the average selling price of its crude oil jumped 41% to US$109.75 a barrel from US$77.93 in 2010.

Cnooc, a unit of China National Offshore Oil Corp., China's third-largest oil company by assets, said it is targeting production of 330 million-340 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2012, not far off the 331.8 million BOE it produced in 2011, it said.

In 2012, the company plans to drill 114 exploration wells, focusing on offshore Chinese fields, especially deep-water areas of the South China Sea, with four projects offshore China expected to come onstream this year.

Foreign fields, including the Long Lake oil sands project in Canada and the Missan oil field in Iraq, are also expected to contribute to added production.

Cnooc expects to increase total capex this year by 45%-71% to US$9.3 billion-US$11 billion, and is targeting a reserve-replacement ratio in excess of 100%.

In August, the company revised downward its 2011 annual production target by up to 6.8% as a result of oil spills in the Bohai Bay as well as a failure to secure an increased stake in an Argentina project it is involved in.

The company proposed a final dividend of HK$0.28, up from HK$0.25 a year earlier.


Source: Dow Jones Newswires