Research In Motion (RIMM) 01 (Sep 08 - Oct 11)

[kennynah]

RIMM is over....

they've had a good 10 years.... they should just sell their business to anyone who is keen to buy them....and walk away ...

[iam802]

I won't be surprised if Microsoft shows interest in RIMM for their customer base.

[kennynah]

very possible....one business that MSFT is still not seriously into is telco business...

[iam802]

I believe this is one of the first downgrade report.

More will come.

http://www.americanbankingnews.com/2010 ... sdaq-rimm/

First Global analysts downgraded shares of Research in Motion Ltd. (Nasdaq: RIMM) from “Market Perform” to “Underperform.”

The analysts wrote, ”RIMM recorded a marginal revenue growth in Q1 FY11, which was followed by management’s unexciting guidance for Q2 FY11; Intensifying competition on account of the growing number of Android devices, strong desirability of iPhone 4 and the tsunami of copycat models from small, regional players in the emerging markets pose a serious threat to RIMM; Weaker-than-expected unit shipments, lower-than-anticipated subscriber additions and declining ASP paint an uninspiring outlook for RIMM; Heavy promotion costs associated with the company’s product launches is expected to put pressure on its margins in the near term; Moreover, Europe’s macroeconomic concerns could put a leash on the growth in the region’s smartphone market.”

Shares of RIMM traded up 0.42% hitting $52.45 during trading on Monday.

[profittaker]

Couple of new products from RIMM, well not killer though. But the most significant news, I think it is:

Before its recent China Telecom tie-up, RIM offered BlackBerry services mostly to corporate customers in China through China Mobile, the world’s largest carrier by subscribers.
But many observers said China Mobile was slow to promote the service, in part because RIM has no BlackBerry models compatible with TD-SCDMA, the homegrown 3G wireless standard that China Mobile is using for its high-speed services.
China Mobile’s current service with RIM is over its older 2G network, based on widely used GSM technology.
China Telecom has high hopes for its BlackBerry service, which it officially launched in May after signing an agreement with RIM earlier in the year.
China Telecom, which entered the wireless space less than two years ago following a broad industry restructuring, said it would initially offer BlackBerry services over its own 3G network, based on CDMA 2000 technology, in 16 Chinese provinces.
Link

[iam802]

The Corporates are going to love BlackBerry for their security.

MRS company is considering a ban on iPhone for emails and going with RIMM.

[kennynah]

I recall it was the poor email n generally data security that most governments could nit adopt breakberry services?

[iam802]

Since its low at 48, RIMM has make a bounced and try to break through the gap down resistance at around $56 (identified by Chikou Span; see circle 1)

3 attempts and it seems that RIMM is ready to turn down; with the Tenkan sen failing to touch the Kijun sen.

A failed counter rally.

A close below $54 over the next few days will be a good indication that the counter rally has failed and RIMM is ready to continue on its way down. First target price is around $52 followed by $48.

A break below $48 will be extremely rewarding.

Let’s examine what are the possible catalyst for that?

1. Delay in new product launch

2. Huge success on its competitor front eg Google’s Android and Apple’s iPhone4

3. Poor response to new products especially from the Corporate market.

Looking forward on the chart, we can also see the huge kumo resistance hanging there with no indication that the trend has changed. In other words, the bigger picture for RIMM is still down.

RIMM, like other company (eg. Garmin) with great products is facing major competition in its core business. At this moment, there is no indication that they have raised the bar for their products and services.

However, we do need to be careful of possible M&A activities for RIMM as the company is generating very healthy revenue and has a pretty good grip on the telco market.

[kennynah]

Basically, rimm's enterprise model is very costly n presents no compelling advantage over device agnostic pushmail solutions.. Especially now that most windows based phones(n with big displays available readily) are capable of receiving n sending emails easily, this is a nail into rimm's coffin.
If they don't reinvent their offerings, it's poised to be outplayed by just abt any player..

[profittaker]

Handset
- Losing out in American market share
- Increasing sales in oversea market, but pricing power is decreasing (android phones can sell at low price with many features)

Push Email
－ Push Email is the probably what most user needs from Blackberry enterprise server. RIMM saw the gap and filled it as a middleware i.e. add on top to other email servers such as Microsoft servers.
- Now we have Yahoo! push e-mail, Gmail push e-mail and Microsoft's Exchange ActiveSync, Apple's own MobileMe subscription-service.
- The product advantage that RIMM is having is encryption.
- Mobile phone operators (like AT&T, Verizon) pay RIM a monthly fee for each active push email subscriber.
- From a platform perspective, RIM's biggest threat may come from Microsoft, as the software giant leverages its installed base of exchange servers and provides push e-mail service free to users.
- Nokia and Motorola also represent a growing threat from a platform perspective. Through their acquisitions of Intellisync and Good Technology respectively, their focus on mobile e-mail has been enhanced.
- Similar to handset, RIMM is under significant competition threat and losing pricing power. As of 2010, RIM is offering the Blackberry Enterprise Server Express edition with no user limitations - for free. It has a few minor feature limitations, but only requires a data plan - not a BES plan. RIMM is giving lowering cost for mobile operators to sell more handsets.

Conclusion:
- Push email is already not giving any competitive advantage to RIMM, and the focus is on handset.

If new phone/OS is not up to expectation, is market not going to wait until next earning release to downgrade RIMM?

The event is scheduled for 11 a.m. EDT Tuesday, August 3, in New York with AT&T(T) serving as co-host.

If one were to guess, it looks like the hotly-anticipated BlackBerry touchscreen slider phone known in most circles as the Talladega is ready for introduction. The phone is expected to be the first to run on the new BlackBerry OS 6, an application and Web friendly operating system that has been lacking at RIM.

And I tot blackberry is targeting corporate customer.. how come official website is showing people with tatoo, funky haristyle?!

I think Blackberry has to focus on the what they are good at i.e. corporate... may be integrate can try intergrate CRM, ERP, SAP or whatever with their BES platform... but I dun know whether that is a possible innovation. If RIMM continue to pursue the path of competing with Apple and android in handset market, it is a going to be a tough fight and they are not going to get as profitable as they used to use.