Research In Motion (RIMM) 01 (Sep 08 - Oct 11)

[iam802]

WWDC: Apple’s iMessage Could Be Blackberry’s Death Knell

http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/158349/ ... kberry.htm

Apple's new iOS 5 feature, iMessage, probably sounded very familiar to those who follow the mobile industry quite well.

The iMessage feature allows for consumers to send text messages, photos, videos or contact information to a person or a group across all iOS 5 devices over Wi-Fi or 3G. Messages are pushed to all iOS 5 devices allowing for people to have an easy conversation on an iPhone, iPad or iPod touch without having to start over on a new device.

...

[kennynah]

can iPhones 3G and 3GS upgrade to iOS5? or this latest OS is only for the more recent aapl devices?

[iam802]

iPhone 3GS and above is supported.

http://www.apple.com/ios/ios5/features.html

[kennynah]

i will just have to stick to whatsapp since mine is 3G nia... no iMessage for me in this case.. no plan to rush out to buy a new iphone just for iOS5

[profittaker]

after seeing iCloud, I started to feel Google Chromium is a dummy way of cloud computing, not much creative thought. Plus shifting of trends to Post-PC, Chromium looks like even more a failure in the making. I wonder if Google decide to scrap this project would it hurt it's share price?

[iam802]

RIMM break $35 in after trading hours. Miss revenue and profit

Now at $30.

[iam802]

RIMM announces on Thursday after trading hours that it was missing revenue target and analyst estimates.

With that news, price breaks the support at $35 with a gap down that goes below $30 convincingly with a show of high volume.

From the Ichimoku chart, we can see that $35 is the lows for RIMM way back during the financial crisis. Now, that the price is trading below $30, it is a strong suggestion that the challenges for RIMM is even greater when compared to 2008.

Among the most important indicator for RIMM will be its shipment and sales for Playbook. Despite RIMM downplay on the importance of it, there is no denial that the tablet market is where the growth is.

Competitors includes Apple (AAPL) with the iPad2 and Google with Android. And we also need to watch out for Hewlette-Packard with the WebOS and they are expected to launch some new tablets products this July (only about 2 weeks from now). Lenovo has also come out with their vision and version of the tablets.

There is no doubt, the success of the tablets will be a great indication of whether RIMM is able to transform itself.

From the trading chart point of view, we only need to reference Nokia (NOK) and Palm’s charts to see a similar pattern. RIMM is going through what Palm went through a few years back.

Remember the story of number of units shipped? Yes, likewise analysts will be trying to find ways to check if the number of units shipped translate to actual sales.

The difference between companies like HPQ and Lenovo will be the channels. HPQ and Lenovo have a strong sales channel both within the entreprise market and the retail. However, for RIMM, this is definitely lacking. And it will take lots of time to build up this channel; a luxury that RIMM will not have.

My believe, RIMM is poised to go down even more. My guess. Below $20 by Dec 2011.

Note:

1. This is not a time to bottom picked. It can goes lower.

2. If it turns around, we should see consolidation on the chart first.

3. I am vested with a bearish bias.

[iam802]

From the wires...

Macquarie Capital Partners initiated an 'Outperform' rating with a target price of $35 for RIMM; citing North America contributed only 25% of RIMM revenue and North America device revenue is only 13% for 2nd quarter.


Either they are right or I am. My bet below $20 by year end. Now around $28

[kennynah]

my bet ison your bet... take this a bit further into another 5 years into the future...RIMM might just get swallowed up...

[iam802]

Background:
An open letter has been circulating giving some insights, missteps, and frustrations from within RIMM.

RIMM has a response. However, I want to highlight a key point. And the keyword is 'shipped'. 'Shipped' is not equal sales.

---
RIM’s Response to “Open Letter”

An “Open Letter” to RIM’s senior management was published anonymously on the web today and it was attributed to an unnamed person described as a “high level employee”. It is obviously difficult to address anonymous commentary and it is particularly difficult to believe that a “high level employee” in good standing with the company would choose to anonymously publish a letter on the web rather than engage their fellow executives in a constructive manner, but regardless of whether the letter is real, fake, exaggerated or written with ulterior motivations, it is fair to say that the senior management team at RIM is nonetheless fully aware of and aggressively addressing both the company’s challenges and its opportunities.

RIM recently confirmed that it is nearing the end of a major business and technology transition. Although this transition has taken longer than anticipated, there is much excitement and optimism within the company about the new products that are lined up for the coming months. There is a fundamental business reality however that following an extended period of hyper growth (during which RIM nearly quadrupled in size over the past 5 years alone), it has become necessary for the company to streamline its operations in order to allow it to grow its business profitably while pursuing newer strategic opportunities. Again, RIM’s management team takes these challenges seriously and is actively addressing the situation. The company is thankfully in a solid business and financial position to tackle the opportunities ahead with a solid balance sheet (nearly $3 billion in cash and no debt), strong profitability (RIM’s net income last quarter was $695 million) and substantial international growth (international revenue in Q1 grew 67% over the same quarter last year). In fact, while growth has slowed in the US, RIM still shipped 13.2 million BlackBerry smartphones last quarter (which is about 100 smartphones per minute, 24 hours per day) and RIM is more committed than ever to serving its loyal customers and partners around the world.