Grab

[winston]

GrabX Inaugural Event: Key takeaways

AI to improve efficiency, user experience and operations.

Grab maintains growth guidance; BUY

Grab hosted its first-ever annual product launch event, Grab X, on 8 Apr’25.

Grab launched AI initiatives for merchant operations, driver efficiency and elevating user experiences, enabled by the deepening of partnerships with OpenAI and a new collaboration with Antrophic, 2 of the world’s leading AI developers.

Grab maintains its FY25 revenue growth guidance at 19-22% YoY and for some cost-savings to be passed down to consumers and partners, reiterating its goal of achieving organic growth by improving customer retention (details on pages 2-3).

Maintain BUY on Grab. Our TP of USD5.75 is based on an SoTP valuation.

Source: Maybank

https://mkefactsettd.maybank-ke.com/PDFS/449790.pdf

[winston]

not vested

Grab raises forecast as sales beat estimates on ride demand

by Olivia Poh

Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization will be as much as US$480 million ($627.95 million) this year.

First-quarter sales rose 18% to US$773 million.

First-quarter adjusted Ebitda at Grab rose 71% to US$106 million, topping estimates.

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/c ... ide-demand

[winston]

not vested

Grab on Wednesday (Apr 30) reported net profit of US$24 million for the first quarter ended Mar 31, 2025, reversing from a US$104 million loss in the previous corresponding period.

The turnaround was driven by higher revenue across all segments, improved operating loss and higher net finance income which included US$33 million in foreign exchange gains.

Source: Phillips

[behappyalways]

Grab plans US$1.25 bil convertible bond sale for acquisitions
https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/b ... quisitions

[winston]

Slower 2H25F EBITDA growth expected

We expect adj. EBITDA to fall 2% qoq in 2Q25F, mainly dragged by higher RCC.

We also expect slower EBITDA growth in 2H25F on weaker spending.

We believe stringent cost optimisation, stronger ad revenue, and profitability of its financial service segment are potential upside catalysts.

We think the current share price has already priced in management’s double-digit GMV growth guidance for FY25F.

Downgrade to Hold as we expect yoy adj. EBITDA growth to slow in 2H25F vs. 1H25F, especially for Deliveries segment on weaker consumer spending.

Target: US$5.20

Source: CGS

https://rfs.cgsi.com/api/download?file= ... 4DA28AF7A8

[winston]

not vested

2Q25E: A topline growth push

2Q25E: GMV and loan-book growth accelerates

We expect Grab’s on-demand GMV to grow 20% YoY/8% QoQ in 2Q25E helped by acceleration in its Deliveries segment while Mobility GMV growth remains firm.

Within its fintech business, we expect loan-book growth to expand to USD710m, up 79% YoY/25% QoQ.

We think the topline acceleration is partially driven by an affordability push and partially at a cost of higher incentives/provisioning.

Nevertheless, we expect adj. EBITDA to grow 73% YoY/5% QoQ.

Our on-demand GMV and adj. EBITDA expectations for 2Q25 are 1-2% ahead of street expectations. 2Q results are due to be reported on 30 July.

TP: US$5.85

Source: Maybank

https://mkefactsettd.maybank-ke.com/PDFS/470833.pdf

[winston]

not vested

Budget-Friendly & Built to Grow

Raise FY25F/26F GMV as new budget-friendly launches are likely to fuel market share gains for Grab pressuring Foodpanda

We expect the impact on profitabilty in FY26F and raise FY25F/26F group adj EBITDA by 1%/4% bringing us 4%/10% above consensus

Maintain BUY with a higher TP of USD6.35. Potential catalyst would be higher than expected GMV growth in 2Q25F

New affordable product launches to drive GMV in FY25F/26F

Source: DBS

https://www.dbs.com/insightsdirect/comp ... ecid=26589

[winston]

not vested

Rides ahead in AV shift

Early AV moves help Grab lead

Grab is well-positioned to benefit from Autonomous Vehicle (AV) adoption in Singapore.

Based on a 2030 blue sky model, we estimate AV costs could fall to USD0.52/mile with tech deflation, while driver costs rise to USD0.85/mile on 4% annual inflation.

Assuming 20% of Grab’s Singapore fleet transitions to AVs, this implies potential annual savings of ~USD71m and a 7% uplift in NPV.

With early AV partnerships (A2Z, Motional, WeRide) and operational strength via Grab Rentals, Grab is uniquely positioned to play both platform and fleet operator roles in the AV world, while its strong balance sheet supports infrastructure investment and mitigates competitive (new tech disruptor) risks.

Maintain BUY on Grab. TP: 5.85

Source: Maybank

https://mkefactsettd.maybank-ke.com/PDFS/473309.pdf

[winston]

not vested

Grab Holdings beat Wall Street expectations for second-quarter revenue on Wednesday, as consumers boosted spending on its ride-hailing and food delivery platform despite global economic uncertainty.

The Singapore-based company reported revenue of $819 million, above analysts’ expectations of $811.3 million, according to LSEG data.

Source: phillips

[winston]

not vested

Focusing on GMV growth

Grab’s adj. EBITDA came in within expectations in 2Q25 with strong GMV growth but slight on-demand segment margin compression.

We expect slower EBITDA growth in 2H25F as Grab remains focused on topline growth which may weigh slightly on the margin.

Management expects loan book to grow >US$1bn by end-2025, but we expect limited near-term earnings uplift with higher credit loss provisions.

We keep our Hold call with a higher target price of US$5.40 as we expect yoy adj. EBITDA growth to slow in 2H25F.

Maintain Hold with a higher target price of US$5.40 We retain our Hold call as we expect slower EBITDA growth for 2H25F amid weaker consumer spending, especially for the Deliveries segment.

We lift our SOP-based TP to US$5.40 to account for higher loan disbursement for 2025-27F.

Upside risks:
1) stringent cost optimisation,
2) higher penetration of its higher margin ad business and
3) profitability for the financial services segment.

Downside risks:
1) higher-than-expected credit losses, and
2) higher-than- expected regional corporate costs.

Source: CGS

https://rfs.cgsi.com/api/download?file= ... 3cb0e29ce9