not vested
Eli Lilly: The Bears Have Spoken Loud And Clear (Upgrade)Summary
I warned Eli Lilly and Company investors to be careful in my previous Sell rating, as the bears have spoken.
LLY's growth valuation faces incessant pressure after underwhelming Orforglipron's Phase III results, amidst intensifying competition from Novo Nordisk's oral rollout.
Despite posting a diversified portfolio, LLY's valuation premium is tethered to the bullish narrative in obesity drugs, making it susceptible to unforeseen execution challenges.
While investors could be drawn into trying to catch LLY's falling knife, I outline my case on why they should abstain from doing so.
With LLY having plunged into oversold levels, the risk/reward is more balanced, but still not appealing enough for a Buy rating.
Investors still expect Lilly to continue outperforming in (most) aspects of the growing TAM through the rest of the decade. But, could that be set to change?
Note that LLY's price action has retested and broken down below the pivotal $680 support zone that has underpinned the stock since early 2024.
Yet, with the stock now clearly oversold, I believe some form of consolidation seems overdue, as the selling fervor potentially subsides.
But, that doesn't necessarily translate into a buying opportunity as structural TAM headwinds are coupled with elevated competition from NVO that appears primed to intensify.
Source: Seeking Alpha
https://seekingalpha.com/article/481276 ... e=hs_email
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