by millionairemind » Wed Dec 31, 2008 8:38 am
ComfortDelGro Corporation
Dec 30 close: $1.48
CIMB-GK Research, Dec 29
ACQUISITIONS in China: ComfortDelGro announced that its 55 per cent-owned subsidiary, Beijing Jin Jian Taxi Services Co in China, has acquired a 100 per cent stake in Jia Run Taxi Co, a taxi operator in Beijing which owns 342 taxi licences and vehicles.
This will increase ComfortDelGro's Beijing taxi fleet to 5,421 vehicles and its total fleet in China to 13,000 vehicles. The purchase consideration is 76 million yuan ($16.2 million), based on the net asset value of the company. The acquisition will be financed by bank borrowings.
ComfortDelGro also increased its stake in Chongqing ComfortDelGro Driving Training Co from 80 per cent to 90 per cent. This is Chongqing's largest driver training school offering driving lessons for various classes of vehicles. It has a fleet of 110 vehicles catering to an annual student enrolment of about 10,000.
The purchase consideration of the additional 10 per cent stake is 6.4 million yuan, based on the net asset value of the company, and will be funded internally. So far, ComfortDelGro has invested 57.6 million yuan in this venture.
We see both investments as positive as we had earlier alluded to a growing number of reasonably priced merger and acquisition (M&A) opportunities amid an uncertain economic environment. While these investments are small by themselves, they are an incremental increase in terms of an expanding China footprint. In addition, both investments were based on the net asset values with no premium attached. They are by far the cheapest investments made by ComfortDelGro in the last two years which has seen soaring valuations.
ComfortDelGro has set itself a target of 70 per cent mix of overseas revenue within the next five to seven years. Undeniably, there will likely be more M&A projects undertaken by ComfortDelGro as organic growth will only be able to contribute incrementally. As at end-September, ComfortDelGro has net cash of $82 million; and notwithstanding the current difficult credit situation, it is well positioned to gear up should large and attractive opportunities emerge.
Maintain 'outperform': We are not making any changes to our forecasts given the small size of the investment. ComfortDelGro is expected to maintain its performance, supported by ridership growth and steady vehicle inspection and automotive engineering businesses in Singapore, and continued growth in its China bus and taxi operations.
Management is cautious about volatile foreign exchange rates, which have an adverse impact, and weakness in the UK and Australian operations during this recession. However, retreating oil prices and improving ridership for its Singapore operations should mitigate the impact of a weaker pound and Australian dollar against the Sing-dollar. With the bleak outlook for 2009, management is expected to be more active in exploring M&A opportunities, as in this China acquisition. Maintain TP of $1.97. This factors in possible earnings risks from volatile forex. Dividend yield has been consistently 5-6 per cent, providing good support.
OUTPERFORM
"If a speculator is correct half of the time, he is hitting a good average. Even being right 3 or 4 times out of 10 should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly on the ventures where he has been wrong" - Bernard Baruch
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