by ishak » Wed Sep 03, 2008 7:58 pm
ComfortDelgro Corporation (S$1.55) - Limited downside with lower fuel prices
03 Sep 2008
Going on the defensive
Decline in oil prices. The decline in oil prices is a welcome reprieve as ComfortDelgro does not hedge its diesel requirements but have fixed discounts from its suppliers, which would still track market prices. Energy costs constituted 8.3% of CD’s revenue based on the recent Jun 08 quarter results. We moderate our assumptions on fuel costs for CD as we believe it would be a matter of time before diesel prices dip to lower levels and the diesel subsidy given to taxi drivers would be deemed unnecessary.
Improving ridership. Recent government initiatives to encourage more people to embrace public transport has been gaining momemtum. With petrol prices still relatively high and the recent doubling of ERP charges, public transport ridership numbers have been highly encouraging, already with some months posting double-digit year-on-year growth, despite the backdrop of a slowing economy.
Outlook. Huge infrastructure spending worth S$50bn until 2020 on both the rail and road network will help to improve connectivity as well as ridership numbers in the future. Near term catalysts for the sector would be the fare adjustment application made to the Public Transport Council and the upward adjustment of the transfer rebate for commuters that make more than one transfer. We believe this to be either an interim measure or part of a final solution to the proposed distance-based fare system.
Unique asset class. The Singapore public transportation sector is a unique asset class, where business operations are relatively insulated from weak demand and rising cost of operations. Government policies are always well positioned to safeguard the interests of the commuting public while balancing the need for private sector operators to remain profitable.
Valuation and recommendation
Maintain Outperform and raise DCF target price to S$2.28 from S$2.18. We upgrade our forecasts by between 2-14% after moderating our fuel assumptions. On our unchanged DCF valuation (WACC 9.2%, terminal growth 2%), our target price is raised to S$2.28. The stock is well-supported by prospective dividend yields of over 5%.
You have to learn the rules of the game. And then you have to play better than anyone else.
- Albert Einstein