Marc Faber 01 (Jun 08 - Feb 14)

[kennynah]

Faber is particularly bullish on Thailand and Singapore where he sees continued value.


this shall be his bane

[winston]

Yes, I was quite surprized when I saw that above as well.

He's quite good at looking at the big stuff. Not sure about his stock-picking skills though...

[winston]

Before the Financial Crisis, Marc Faber mentioned that everything was expensive ie. Equities, Properties and Commodities. Thereafter, Subprime was the catalyst that brought everything down..

Now that everything is expensive again ie. Equities, Properties and Commodities, will it again go out to look for a catalyst to revert to the mean ? And what's the mean ? Can the high now be the mean for the future ?

[kennynah]

brudder...

some things can be expensive now...and it can continue to be get more expensive....

it's very subjective i feel...for example...

when one compares equities prices to Mar09, sure they look expensive now.

when one compares equities prices to Mar 07, sure they look cheap now...

so, what is expensive and what is cheap? nothing but a mere comparison and emotional response to our most recent experiences..which can be flawed...

so, we turn to real fundamentals or technicals to quantify what could be expensive or cheap....well, as you know, ask me about FA, better you ask a blind man for direction....so, i offer some thoughts about usage of TA...

1) simply look at the SPX chart (or whichever representative chart)
2) simply look at the sector ETF chart
3) simply look at VIX
4) when looking at these charts, turn on your favourite TA indicators; such as MA20/50/200, MACD, Bollinger, etc
5) simply look at the historical volatility chart

i think, once you review these few items, you should have a feel for whether the market can get more expensive or is overcooked and ready to be served on a plate....

make sense to you? i welcome your critique, please....many arigatoes in advance...

[winston]

I think it depends on our time horizon and our investment vehicle.

If we are trading futures, we would be focussing on the movement of the index every second.

If we are trading a stock, we can afford to take a longer term view, for it's story to emerge, whether the story is growth, turnaround, M&A etc ..

[winston]

Faber: In a Decade, Dollar Will Fall to Zero By: Dan Weil

The dollar, which recently dropped to a 14-month low of 0.67 euro before recently recovering, will ultimately fall to zero, says financial guru Marc Faber.

Faber, publisher of the Gloom Boom & Doom Report, told Bloomberg, “It will go to a value of exactly zero eventually, but not right now.”

The dollar will drift for a while, with occasional rebounds, Faber says.

“The other currencies aren’t much better either. They are also paper currencies. But I think that against gold, it will continue to depreciate.”

And when can we expect the dollar to be worthless?

“Looking at Mr. Obama and his administration, it should already be there,” Faber says.

“But I think it will take roughly 10 years until people really realize that the fiscal position of the U.S. is a complete disaster.”

Faber maintains that in about 10 years, 50 percent of U.S. tax revenue will be used just to cover interest payments on the government debt.

“That is unsustainable,” he says. “Then you really are forced to print money.”

But he thinks stocks will continue to rise as the dollar slumps.

“As soon as the S&P 500 drops toward 900 or 800, (Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke) will print money again.”

Investment icon Jim Rogers is a big dollar bear too.

“The same things that happened to the pound sterling, 60, 70, 80 years ago, are happening to the dollar,” Rogers told Moneynews.com.

“We’re the biggest debtor nation in the history of the world.”

Source: Newsmax

http://www.moneynews.com/streettalk/fab ... ode=8FC3-1

[winston]

Marc Faber: I Am Long the Dollar By: Gene J. Koprowski

The U.S. dollar may appreciate well over 10 percent against the euro during the next quarter, says Marc Faber, the economist known as “Doctor Doom” to investors.

Faber has long predicted the dollar’s complete collapse, so the dollar rally for him is an interesting turn of events.

“Maybe the dollar has made a turn; it can easily rebound by 10 percent,” Faber told Bloomberg News.

“It may have started already since the asset markets started to go down 10 days ago.”

Faber, the editor and publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, observed that the dollar rallied to its highest level versus the euro in a month yesterday in the currency markets.

The rise came on rumors that Federal Reserve policy makers are discussing the outlook for record-low borrowing costs.

But, the greenback has dropped 12 percent during the past year against a basket of six major currencies as the Fed, trimmed interest rates to near zero in an effort to power the U.S. economy out of the recession.

“As of today, I will be long in dollars,” said Faber.

“I don’t think that the dollar will be a strong currency, but you can have periods like in 2008 that the liquidity tightens. If you have the private sector withdrawing credit and the government throwing credit at the system you can get a lot of volatility.”

Faber said he would be careful buying equities now as “we are in a correction period.”

Other economic experts agree, in part.

New York University professor Nouriel Roubini is saying the dollar will eventually “bottom out” as the Fed raises borrowing costs and withdraws stimulus measures, Bloomberg News reports.

Source: Newsmax

http://moneynews.newsmax.com/streettalk ... 81585.html

[kennynah]

another hero against rogers in dollar call.... they buck rogers...wahahahaha...you can see i am extremely bored...waiting for US casino to open for business...

[winston]

Marc Faber has short term concerns about commodities, says gold may drop to US$800

Marc Faber the Swiss fund manager and Gloom Boom & Doom editor said he has some short-term concerns about commodity prices including gold. He is also reluctant to invest in bonds.

In the latest issue of the Gloom Boom & Doom, Faber writes: "Since we had in 2008 the third best annual return (41%) in the last 35 years and since each time high returns were followed by negative returns I would be, regardless of the economic outlook, very reluctant to invest in long term government and also in corporate bonds.

Faber says he is more negative about US bonds under a further deterioration of the economy than under a recovery, adding that 'inevitable' further economin weakness 'will lead to further fiscal stimulus packages and necessitate further money printing'.

He believes the latest GPP growth figures are a result of massive government interventions into the free market which inevitably resulted in extremely volatile economic and financial conditions.

As a result assets are over-stretched: equities are too high, the euro is over-bought the dollar is over-sold. Even gold may be due for a short term correction, he says.

"I should also mention some concerns (for now of short-term nature) I have about commodity prices including gold. A large number of commodities including oil, the CRB Index, and gold broke out on the upside in early October," Faber said.

"I would regard a failure to hold above the “upside breakout points” in the period directly ahead with great caution. In the case of gold a decline below US$1,000 would likely lead to further more meaningful weakness, possibly down to between US$800 and US$900," Faber added.

Faber has been reiterating, in various recent interviews, the notion of over-streched assets and a possible short-term dollar turnaround.

Speaking in a Bloomberg interview from Istanbul on Tuesday, Faber said: "Maybe the dollar has made a turn, it can easily rebound by 10%”.

“It may have started already since the asset markets started to go down 10 days ago.”

“I don’t think that the dollar will be a strong currency, but you can have periods like in 2008 that the liquidity tightens”.

“If you have the private sector withdrawing credit and the government throwing credit at the system you can get a lot of volatility,” Faber said, adding he would be careful to buy equities now as “we are in a correction period.”

http://www.bi-me.com/main.php?id=41779& ... cg=4&mset=

[winston]

Faber: Gold Permanently Over $1,000

“Gold won’t fall below $1,000 an ounce again after rising 27 percent this year to a record as central banks print money to help fund budget deficits, said Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report.

The precious metal rose to all-time highs in New York and London today as the dollar weakened. The Dollar Index, a gauge of value against six other currencies, has declined 7.9 percent this year and today fell to a 15-month low. News last week of bullion purchases by the Indian and Sri Lankan governments raised speculation that other countries would follow suit.

“We will not see less than the $1,000 level again,” Faber said at a conference today in London. “Central banks are all the same. They are printers. Gold is maybe cheaper today than in 2001, given the interest rates. You have to own physical gold.”

China will keep buying resources including gold, he said.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/11/fa ... over-1000/