AIA Group 1299 02 (Jun 20 - Dec 27)

[winston]

not vested

<Research>UBS Forecasts Accelerated Growth in AIA (01299.HK) 3Q VNB w/ Rating Buy

UBS released a research report expecting AIA (01299.HK) to announce its 3Q25 results on 31 October, and estimating its 3Q25 VNB to increase by 18%/ 17% YoY on AER/ CER basis each, accelerating from 1H25 growth rates of 16%/ 14%.

The broker believed that this stronger growth is primarily driven by a robust rebound in the Chinese market.

UBS estimated that AIA's 2H25 embedded value (EV) will hike by 10% HoH (compared to a 2.6% HoH increase in 1H25).

Based on the latest macroeconomic environment, the broker made minor adjustments to its profit and EV projections, and kept its target price for AIA at $88, with rating at Buy.

Related News: M Stanley Envisions AIA's 3Q VNB to Rise 15% YoY on CER Basis

Source: AAStocks Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN

[winston]

not vested

<Research>M Stanley Envisions AIA's 3Q VNB to Rise 15% YoY on CER Basis

Morgan Stanley has released a research report forecasting that AIA's (01299.HK) 3Q25 value of new business (VNB) will rise by 15% YoY on a constant exchange rate (CER) basis, continuing the momentum of a 14% YoY increase in 1H25.

The broker anticipated the Hong Kong and Thailand markets, to continue serving as an engine for AIA's growth.

Specifically, the Hong Kong market is expected to achieve a 20% surge in VNB on a CER basis in 3Q25 due to the launch of popular new participating products.

Related News: UBS Forecasts Accelerated Growth in AIA (01299.HK) 3Q VNB w/ Rating Buy

AIA was given an Overweight rating and a target price of HKD96.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN

[winston]

not vested

<Hindsight>Brokers' Latest TPs/ Opinions for AIA Post-3Q Operational Data Ann

Broker│ Rating│ TP (HKD)
JPMorgan│Overweight│105
Citi│Buy│99
Morgan Stanley│Overweight│96
UBS│Buy│88
Goldman Sachs│Buy│85

Broker│ Opinion

JPMorgan│ Quarterly VONB hiked 27% YoY, confirming accelerated business growth

Citi│ Quarterly VONB significantly beat expectation, driven by sales and new business value margin

Morgan Stanley│ Quarterly results substantially beat forecasts, propelled by Hong Kong and China markets

UBS│ Quarterly results were strong

Goldman Sachs│ Results significantly beat projections, fueled by growth in Hong Kong and China operations

Source: AASTOCKS Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/analy ... stock-news

[winston]

More upside to come

Main beneficiary of Hong Kong's 'Par' product illustrative rate cap policy, with strong demand for its Global Flexi product to provide upside to Hong Kong business growth in 4Q25F

Improving China market outlook, with accelerating Value of New Business (VONB) contribution from new geographic expansion areas and an alleviating economic assumption impact, bodes well for growth in FY26F

Moderate Value of New Business (VONB) margin expansion is expected, backed by persistent demand for protection and critical illness products

Rollover valuation base to FY26F and raise TP to HKD103. AIA remains our top pick within HK/China insurance space. Reiterate BUY.

Source: DBS

https://www.dbs.com/insightsdirect/comp ... ecid=28966

[winston]

not vested

<Research>Haitong Int'l Optimistic About AIA (01299.HK) 2026/ 2027 Growth Prospects, Lifts TP to $108.5

Haitong International issued a research report showing optimism about AIA (01299.HK) for 2026/ 2027 outlook.

It is expected that the Group's 4Q25 new business value will achieve a 14% growth, and anticipated a positive view on its 2026/ 2027 growth prospects.

Driven by increased agency productivity, channel diversification and potentially better performance in Hong Kong and China markets, the Group's new business value is forecasted to maintain a healthy and sustainable growth trajectory of 15-17% for 2026/ 2027.

Related News: G Sachs Elevates AIA (01299.HK) TP to $96, Reiterates Buy Rating

Haitong International adopted an absolute valuation method, and raised its 2025-2027 new business value forecasts for AIA by 0- 7%.

The broker lifted its target price from $99.5 to $108.5, corresponding to an embedded value multiple of 1.8x, with rating kept at Outperform.

Source: AASTOCKS Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/analy ... stock-news

[winston]

not vested

History is not repeating itself

AIA’s cumulative share price fall of 8% over the past 2 days is excessive, in our view, with a possible reason being a selldown by Capital Group to below a 5% stake.

We think this may have led to investors fearing a repeat of AIA 2024’s 33%-pt underperformance vs. HSI, when Capital Group’s stake fell from over 8% to sub-5%.

With Capital Group issuing another substantial shareholder filing raising its stake above 5% to 5.002%, we think it is clear Capital Group is not looking to exit AIA.

Rather, in hindsight, we believe Capital Group’s previous trimming of its shareholding was slight profit-taking following its strong share price run in 2025.

Reiterate Add as we expect strong FY25F results (due to be released in Mar 2025F). AIA is our top sector pick among regional insurers.

TP: HK$106

Source: CGS

https://rfs.cgsi.com/api/download?file= ... 85D1E26B87

[winston]

not vested

Can Mark make his mark?

Investor feedback indicates a key focus for FY25 results could centre on potential changes following Mark Tucker’s return to AIA as its new chairman.

We continue to see more forward guidance as a key area of upside to AIA’s governance, especially given its gap to HK-listed regional financial peers (Figs 1-2).

This is especially since we believe when AIA historically increased disclosures about forward guidance, its share price reacted positively (Fig 3).

We continue to see upside to Bloomberg consensus’ estimates for FY26F-27F VONB and operating profit per share, which we consider low (Figs 21-22).

Reiterate Add rating. TP raised to HK$119 from HK$106 due to valuation roll-forward. AIA remains our top sector pick.

Source: CGS

https://rfs.cgsi.com/api/download?file= ... 68FB1E2465

[winston]

not vested

2025: Upbeat Shareholder Returns; Strong Momentum To Continue In 2026

AIA’s VONB growth of 17% yoy was slightly below our expectation, due to lower-than-expected sales growth in Mainland China and Thailand.

A total buyback plan of US$1.7b was announced (vs our estimate: US$1.6b), bringing 2025 total shareholder return yield to 4%.

Maintain BUY with an unchanged target price of HK$109.00, implying 1.7x P/EV.

Source: UOBKH

https://research.uobkayhian.com/content ... e=hs_email

[winston]

not vested

Insurer AIA applies to list US$18 billion global medium-term note programme in Hong Kong

Source: The Standard

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/finance/article/327411/