Copper 03 (Oct 22 - Dec 27)

[winston]

Revisiting the supply/demand imbalance

The average EV uses almost half as much copper as the average American house.

Wind energy uses five to 10 times more copper per unit of electrical energy than does the conventional burning of coal.

Photovoltaic solar power uses six times more copper per unit of electrical energy.

A Tesla Model 3 requires 240 pounds of copper, which is nearly four times what a
midsized internal combustion vehicle requires.

Copper demand has been flat-lining for the last few months, but it is certainly not imploding.

China’s monthly copper imports have held steady around the 500,000-tonne level over the last several months. This is roughly 20% higher than pre-COVID levels. And this has happened during a fresh round of Covid-19 lockdowns.

Physical stocks of copper in China have tumbled to 13-year lows.

The combined copper stockpiles of the major commodity exchanges in Shanghai, London, and New York have dropped to an 18-year low.

Annual global copper use will soar from 24 million tonnes to nearly 32 million tonnes over the coming decade, thanks mostly to surging demand from EV manufacturers and other renewable energy industries.

For perspective, five tonnes of yearly copper demand would be greater than the combined yearly output from the world’s three largest copper mines!

Source: Investor Place

[winston]

Copper faces long-term shortage as demand outruns supply

The market will be in “a little bit oversupply” in the next few years before tightening up toward the end of the decade

Energy transition and tight supplies, will drive a rebound in copper prices, with stockpiles set to shrink to less than three days of global consumption at the end of the year.

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/ ... uns-supply

[winston]

Copper’s Biggest Mystery Is Finally Cracking

by Thomas Biesheuvel

Jetti’s technology is focused on a common type of ore that traps copper behind a thin film, making it too costly and difficult to extract.

The result is that vast quantities of metal have been left stranded over the decades in mine-waste piles on the surface, as well as in untapped deposits.

To crack the code, Jetti has developed a specialized catalyst to disrupt the layer, allowing rock-eating microbes to go to work at releasing the trapped copper.

Over the past decade alone, an estimated 43 million tons of copper have been mined but never processed, worth more than $2 trillion at current prices.

As much as 8 million tons of additional copper could be produced each year by the 2040s – more than one third of last year’s total global mine production.

Source: Bloomberg

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/copper-b ... 07509.html

[winston]

How a lack of copper could slow the transition to renewable energy

By Sam Nichols and Kate MacDonald

According to a 2021 report by Goldman Sachs, by its lowest estimates, renewable energy sources – like wind, battery and solar – will drive copper demand up nearly 600 per cent, or 5.4 million megatonnes, by 2030.

In the case of "hyper adoption of green technologies", this demand would grow to 8.7 million megatonnes by 2030, a lift of 900 per cent, according to the report.

This increase is due to energy transmission which already accounts for 21 per cent of the world's demand for copper.

Currently, copper supply is low and prices are falling. Between June and October 2022, the price of copper fell by 33 per cent – a drop related to rising interest rates in Australia and the US.

The biggest copper producers in 2021 were Chile, Peru, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and China. These countries accounted for more than half of the global supply. Chile was the biggest player. It produced around a quarter of the world's supply alone.

Chile, Peru and the DRC, are the key countries for copper supply. It is "very risky" for copper prices and for the transition to renewable energy: political unrest.

Source: abc.net

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-12-08/ ... =291917007

[winston]

Copper slides as virus wave tempers reopening optimism

by Mark Burton

The wave of cases is coinciding with a seasonal winter slowdown in demand for industrial metals, which will last until after the Lunar New Year holidays in late January.

Rising supply risks, as First Quantum Minerals Ltd seeks an eleventh-hour agreement with Panamanian authorities to resolve a tax dispute at the giant Cobre Panama mine.

Anglo America is also weighing its options for copper shipments out of Chile as a port used by its Los Bronces mine remains closed after a fire scorched conveyor belts.

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/node/649976

[behappyalways]

China Reopening Boosts Copper Outlook
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china ... er-outlook

[behappyalways]

Extremely Tight Market Could Push Copper Prices To Record Highs
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/e ... cord-highs

[winston]

‘Massively Squeezed’ Copper Seeks Mojo in an Uncertain Economy

By Barani Krishnan

Global copper supply being squeezed, major deficit forecast through 2030

Copper prices are down in Feb., after three months in the green

Near-term copper story dictated by China vacuum on data, firmer dollar

Longer term narrative explosive from supply deficits in Peru to Chile

Source: Investing.com

https://www.investing.com/analysis/mass ... s_headline

[winston]

"Dr. Copper" Prescribes Gold

BY Aibek Burabayev

Usually, the market doesn’t leave former valleys untouched and we could see a deeper collapse to retest the $1.9-$2.0 area (2016, 2020 lows). The Great Recession’s bottom at $1.25 is the ultimate bearish target.

The Gold-Copper ratio is another indicator of economic conditions because changes in the ratio can reflect changes in the relative supply and demand of the two metals, which are influenced by various economic factors.

The world should be prepared for another potential 'perfect storm' that could be nicknamed accordingly.

Source: ino.com

https://www.ino.com/blog/2023/02/dr-cop ... -2nz3ZByM8

[winston]

We can’t have a green future with EVs in every driveway (and amazing new technologies in every home) without batteries, which are hugely reliant on copper:

The average EV uses almost half as much copper as the average American house, and EVs aren’t the only “green” products that are “metal hogs.”

Wind energy uses five to 10 times more copper per unit of electrical energy than does the conventional burning of coal.

Photovoltaic solar power uses six times more copper per unit of electrical energy.

A Tesla Model 3 requires 240 pounds of copper, which is nearly four times what a midsized internal combustion vehicle requires.

Therefore, as the renewable energy boom gains momentum, it will produce an echo-boom in demand for key battery metals.

Source: Investor Place